Greglw3

I agree with you we need another hitter. My plan adds Contreras, Binentendi, Pederson, Abreu. I draw an analogy to when Buxton was hitting .160 about 4-5 yrs ago and I had no doubt he was elevating the team with his stunning defense and stolen bases. He’s the only hitter hitting .160 that I would have said that about in my lifetime. He opened my eyes. With Hamilton stealing 10/11 bases in very limited time, it appears to me he still has the chops he had when he stole 50-60 bases 4 times. I have no doubt at 32 that his defense would be in a category with his past defense. I felt strongly that Baldelli completely mismanaged him. But your point is a good one. If Baldelli, for whatever reason, used him the way he did in 2022, then he probably would not use him according to my vision in 2023. So back to the drawing board. I’m a big Billy Hamilton fan because of the things I’ve seen him do on the baseball field. To me, his talent is electrifying with a career BA above Kepler and Cave and maybe Celestino. Disappointment has long been a thing I’ve had to live with as a Twins fan, having grown up in the Calvin Griffith years when he let Bostock, Bill Campbell, Rod Carew, Larry Hisle, Dan Ford, Dave Goltz all leave only for the virtually worthless package he got for Carew. And yet I’m still as avid a fan as ever!

I tried to clean things up with Contreras, Binentendi in LF, Buxton in CF (Billy Hamilton) and Joc Pederson if RF with Austin Martin at SS and Abreu at 1B, Arraez at 2B, Urshela at 3B. 140.1 MM total. Kirilloff and Larnach waiting in the wings assuming 1 or both are healthy.

I have Billy Hamilton as his backup. Probably won’t happen but his defense and stolen base ability can be so good as to make him a plus even if he doesn’t hit real well. That said, he is a .239 career hitter. Better than Celestino in my estimation.

I think that’s the way to go. I had Contreras at C, Binentendi in LF and Joc Pederson in RF. Buxton backed up by Billy Hamilton. Concessions: Austin Martin at SS (imagine, Buxton, Gordon, Hamilton, Martin all stealing bases a/la the Guardians).

I think that Kirilloff and Polanco should be in the questionable category and get someone with a healthy track record and proven performnce in LF, 2B, 1B, C. My 2023 payroll projection has Binentendi in LF, Pederson in RF, Abreuu at 1b, Contreras at C and comes in at 140.1 M

I got this from Spotrac.com.

Hi Reptevia, please check again. I revised it with projected AAV for the 2023 free agents when available.

They can win jobs but I want the proven ML hitters to force them into depth roles due to their last 2 years injuries and struggles. Injuries and slumps happen and the cream always rises so nothing would stop them from playing a lot or even becoming regulars. Counting on them and not bringing in winning type OF talent could leave the Twins with another Cave-Celestino-Kepler kind of OF which is a certain recipe for non-contention.

Could you guys help me out with your estimated salaries for my free agents? I’ll revise and adjust. I do have a payroll of $150M. I remember last year when these spreadsheet and just about everybody assumed $130M and the actual was $140M.

OAA is my least favorite baseball statistic ever invented, not a joke. I think OAA is consistently and wildly misleading and is literally changing the beliefs of many whose lyin’ eyes see that Urshela and Correa are both gold glove caliber but change their minds when they see OAA. I regard it as junk science at best. Worst, some national writers who don’t watch Twins games are bamboozled by OAA into thinking Urshela and Correa are defensively mediocre to poor. Correa, for example won the platinum glove as the best defensive player in the American League, regardless of position in 2021. Despite OAA or UZR or other similar stats, Correa was right in the same ballpark this year with a very low error total for a SS (8) and good range and a throwing arm that is second to none at SS, where he turns countless hits into outs and many feeders choices into double plays. He makes the high leaping catch as well as anyone. That’s not to say that Swanson is not a great defensive player. In 2021, anyway, Correa won the platinum glove and Swanson didn’t. I just read an article on a Braves oriented site that Swanson may be gone due to their GM not wanting to pay for big, long term contracts.

Bravo! I think you hit the nail squarely on the head with your whole article. I couldn’t agree more. Hopefully they finally build more depth or real major league experienced players to cover for the chronically injured among the Twins 40 man roster else they could once again have an outfield of Cave (substitute Cave-like player), Celestino and Kepler in Big games. See my greglw3’s 2023 payroll blueprint.

I like your line of thinking. I like that you shook up the offense. I did the same thing in putting Arraez at 2nd, leaving Polanco out because of his injury history the last 3 years. I don’t think we can plan around players that have been chronically injured. Keep the door open for them if they can beat out healthier options over last few years but can’t count on them. I think putting Austin on your roster was smart. I originally had him as the starting shortstop but signed Dansby Swanson at an apparently too low $13. So, I feel very comfortable with putting Martins OBP and his 34/39 SB back there. I’m not as high on Jeffers but if the Twins scouts believe he’ll hit than I’d defer. In my plan, I put Willson Contreras. Good move putting Brooks Lee in there at SS! I think he’s coming fast like a freight train and will hit and maybe be a great #2 in the order option after Arraez. I like Wallner, Larnach and Kirilloff but I did go out and get Binentendi for LF and Joc Pederson or Mitch Haniger (one other) for RF to build depth due to Kirilloff and Larnach’s injury histories. With depth, maybe Kirilloff is healthy and wins a position or earns 450 or more AB. I also love Billy Hamilton and retained him for his spectacular defense and SB ability as a long term Buxton injury option. I agree with every single on of your pitching options. I think I had a couple more relievers, one of them Matt Wisler and Andrew Chafin for a 3rd lefty. My plan is under greglw3’s 2023 payroll blueprint if you want to check it out. I think we’re both thinking in the same progressive direction. I think Wallner, Martin, Lee and possibly Larnach and Kirilloff can all help in 2023. The you speed and bat skills would be just what the Dr. ordered! Oh, and I’m a Nashvillian to since 2014!

Cave is gone. Wallner will be around. Gordon stays. Kepler is the issue. He may not be tradeable or if he is, they may have to pay part of his salary. That’s the route I would take.

Wow! I was going by the fact he made 10M last year. Obviously, I’ve underrated his salary. However, when you say at least double, we’re starting to get into Carlos Correa territory. Even though I’m not a fan of most SABR statistics (some worse than others), for the sake of comparison, Swanson had an OPS+ of 115 and Correa 140. Plus Swanson’s defense, would have a hard time topping Correa’s. To be honest, I originally had Austin Martin as the SS but had extra money in the budget so I upgraded. I think Martin is such a superior athlete and has such great speed and base stealing ability that he may come fast. Somewhat influenced by his late season finish at Wichita and his super sizzling AFL start and his high number of stolen bases at a very high % success rate (35/41 SB). I wouldn’t mind going back to Martin and going after a Rodon or Bassitt type starter.

? Contreras ($16.07M) 1B: Jose Abreu ($9.12M) 2B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($11.00M) SS: Austin Martin ($.7M) LF: Andrew Binentendi ($17.40M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Joc Pederson ($14.68M) DH: Jose Miranda ($1.25M) 4th OF: Billy Hamilton ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($1.40M) Utility: Alex Kirilloff ($0.80M) Backup ? Jeffers ($.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($8.00M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($1.25M) SP3: Tyler Mahle ($9.00M) SP4: Kenta Maeda ($8.0M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($1.40M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Michael Fulmer ($4.2M) RP: Jovani Moran ($1.00M) RP: Matt Wisler ($2.10M) RP: Andrew Chafin ($7.00M) 140.11 M total payroll Kirilloff listed a U until he proves he’s healthy and effective. Wallner could play that role as well. If Mahle is not healthy, then Winder, Varland or Woods Richardson would all be capable of breaking into the rotation. Austin Martin could be knocking on the door as well Edouard Julien. Free agent salaries from Spotrac.

I agree Contreras would be a huge improvement over both this years catchers and a step in the right direction toward rebuilding a moribund offense. Add Haniger in RF and let Kepler go.

Maybe even Austin Martin!

I agree with that. I loved watching his rocket arm make throw outs at 1st and turn double plays where other players wouldn't be able to get the runner.

Thanks, that’s the first direct tie I’ve seen. I take Falvey saying they’d discuss at the proper time and a few there signs I’ve see from DF to mean, go ahead Carlos into free agency and we’ll do our best. I really think if the Twins were serious, they could have signed him by now. I’m guessing C4 is going to opt out due to not receiving the attention from the Twins, the seriousness and aggressiveness a team should have if they really badly want a player. I’ve followed the Twins way too many years to know how they operate.

Please show me a quote where Carlos directly says he is opting out. The last thing I read was that Correa wanted to get together with the Twins real soon and have serious talks. He also said he wanted to be a Twin for many years. Many writers have sloppily taken speculation by other baseball columnists and reported it as fact (horrible journalism with no evidence).

461 54 140 23 3 5 51 8 3 52 77 .304 .373 .399 .772 Above baseball reference. A few facts. As of Oct. 3, Binentendi was tied for 4th in the AL Batting race. His .304 BA was wildly above the league average by about 56 points. His .373 OBP was also wildly above average. As to OPS, that stat is for sluggers. Having team of all or most power hitters does not guarantee success as its an unbalanced team. You need balance. IMO, the ideal lineup would have the 1-2 batters with as high an OBP as possible to give a constant flow of runners for say Correa and Miranda, Bell to drive in. So with Benintendi batting #2 after Arraez at #1, that would form a dynamic duo of baserunners and Binentendi’s OPS would matter no more than Arraez’s does. It’s just not fair to ask a specialist in getting on base to also hit with power.

I'd love a Wheeler, Verlander, Cole, Musgrove type ace. I just think fixing the disastrous hitting situation is more important. WE actually have two potential aces in Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan. Pair Gray and Ryan with Maeda, Ober and Winder or Varland or Woods Richardson and fix the hitting with iron clad depth. If you look real close, there’s 3 potential aces in my 5 man. Normally, I would agree with you as I am really a pitching guy. But the offensive need, if not fixed will be fatal. I just want them to build out their depth much better than they have the last two seasons.

Doc, so he gives Falvine high marks for 2022. I distinctly remember last year that Jim Pohlad was asked to grade Falvine for 2021. His answer, "A+". What kind of curve are they grading on when a C- to D in wins translates to "high marks" and "A+"?

Kyle Garlick, along with Cave and Kepler should be on another team besides the Twins.