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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    The fact is that a wide range of teams - including teams that have zero questions around their competency (e.g., the Yankees), chose not to sacrifice the farm this year. And that's been a general trend for a number of years now. There have also been trades where a team appeared to have given up huge prospect value at the time, but that in hindsight reflected a lack of public understanding about the quality/health/etc. of those prospects. The true frequency of massive prospect-for-star deals is very, very low. And this deadline we saw situations where clubs apparently asked for top prospects in exchange for 2nd tier players. Many posters here don't want to accept the reality that not much was actually out there. But the reality is apparent, because the deadline is in the past, and guys like Syndergaard, Ray, Bumgarner, etc., didn't get traded.
  2. drivlikejehu
    Saying it's "part of the reason" is like saying the Earth being flat is "part of the reason" that the moon landings were fake. You have not and cannot explain how Falvey and Levine are to blame for the Twins being on Greinke's no trade list. It's not a rational thought.
  3. drivlikejehu
    So now it's Falvine's fault for not building a time machine, making the Twins a dominant franchise years ago, and thereby convincing Greinke not to put the Twins on his no trade list? I mean, dios mio man. Blaming the Twins for being on a no trade list is . . . really something. It's not unfair, it's farcical. No reasonable person should say such a thing.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Clubs weren't selling. The Yankees have pitching issues and didn't land anyone. Other clubs with major pitching needs landing nothing or marginal guys. It was a weird market. The one guy fans can rationally argue about is Stroman. He was dealt and we more or less know what the cost would have been. But otherwise, it seems to me that the Twins did a reasonable job by adding 2 relievers. Not thrilling, but also reflective of the market.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Serious question - if you magically owned the Twins as of today, would you fire Falvey and Levine?
  6. drivlikejehu
    The front office has gotten a lot of unfair criticism on here, but obviously this would be an entirely different scenario. I don't even want to get into the ramifications because I can't accept that it's a real possibility.
  7. drivlikejehu
    OK I misunderstood. But still, the trade deadline is a big event in baseball . . . the rush of last-minute deals is something I'd hope most fans have noticed in the past.
  8. drivlikejehu
    The current front office was never in a clear 'buy' position before, so it's irrelevant.
  9. drivlikejehu
    It's interesting how many posters here seem unfamiliar with the fact that most deadline deals happen right before the deadline . . .
  10. drivlikejehu
    Any time the Mets value someone the highest, that tells you something.
  11. drivlikejehu
    No.
  12. drivlikejehu
    It's pretty rare to see an injured pitching prospect being a key part of a trade. Not sure what to really make of that tweet. I seriously doubt the Twins are unwilling to trade Larnach . . . he's by far their most obvious trade piece that is a legit prospect. In the next tier, the Twins would undoubtedly be more than happy to part with Gordon and Rooker. But those guys obviously won't headline a high-end deal.
  13. drivlikejehu
    Except no one here does that. It's a split between people who favor making sensible trades vs. those who think you can trade away your minor league system with no repercussions. Actual MLB teams behave cautiously when trading away prospects. Mega deals are rare. The simple reality is that prospects have significant value . . . whether or not you want to accept it, the numbers prove it out and all 30 MLB clubs agree.
  14. drivlikejehu
    lol, you mean like all the proposed trades where you predicted the stats of the players involved? if you advocate for every single possible trade, well sure, occasionally you'll be "right," just like a broken clock.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Yeah, the Twins front office prefers losing to winning, they are paid under the table by the other orgs.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Your post is not really contradicting mine. Using numbers is a must in order to quantify the trade-offs that are inherent to every decision. The numbers don't make the decision by themselves. If you run the numbers and say - this trade increases my WS odds by 10% this year but lowers them by a cumulative 15% over the next 5 years . . . I totally understand going for the trade. There's a reasonable basis for it. Saying "make all the trades!!!", including trades that would generate a 1% increase this year and 50% cumulative decrease in future years, that's a different story. And some posters are advocating for those types of moves.
  17. drivlikejehu
    I can absolutely guarantee that the odds of future playoff appearances are higher with Lewis, Kirilloff, Balazovic, Larnach, etc. still in the system. I don't see how that could even be questioned. Everything is probabilistic. That's something most fans struggle with, on this site included. In this case, you are overestimating the impact of trade pick-ups and underestimating the importance of prospects. It's a math error, nothing more or less. The impact on WS odds of acquiring a good reliever are much, much lower than you think. That's why you're willing to pay a high price.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Prospects in general are not "overrated." Prospects are the ONLY way the Twins can possibly hope to compete, in any season, for as long as MLB exists in the future. Former prospects are obviously the only reason the Twins are competitive this year. The issue with prospects of course is that only a minority of them actually pan out. But it really doesn't matter because clubs don't know for sure who will and who won't. The value of a top prospect like Kirilloff is enormous just because he *might* be really good. The huge market teams (which, by the way, includes Houston) are reluctant to part with top prospects but also have the ability to make up for mistakes by spending more. The Twins aren't going to spend more and so the front office can't make the same kinds of decisions. Now, if I could exchange Kirilloff for a World Series title, I would do that. Unfortunately, that's not how things work. The Twins could trade every single prospect of note in the system and their World Series odds would only increase by a moderate amount (and still remain a relatively low probability given the number of teams in the playoffs). Post-season baseball is unpredictable. Oftentimes, the best team doesn't win. I want to make the playoffs as much as possible, and not give up numerous future playoff appearances in exchange for an 8th inning reliever who may or may not actually make an impact.
  19. drivlikejehu
    The Twins bullpen is 3rd in MLB in WPA, a hundredth of a win behind the Astros. The reality is that even good bullpens allow some runs. That's the nature of the game. The Twins should look to improve wherever possible before the deadline, but the bullpen harping is just not based in reality. Even if the Twins acquire multiple high-end relievers, they will still allow some runs . . . folks are just going to have to deal with that.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Fangraphs has Arraez at #6 and Gordon at #35. That aside, I personally see no case for Gordon being higher than Arraez, it's really not close. I'm not generally one to nit-pick these sorts of lists, which are for entertainment value only anyway, but this one is off base. While Arraez doesn't project to be elite defensively, he doesn't look bad to me out there. Gordon meanwhile has question marks defensively - he might project somewhat better but it's not a huge edge for him (especially in the age of TTO). Offensively, there's a huge gap . . . Gordon's RC+ in AAA is 86 right now, which is pretty bad (worse than Arraez for any stop in his entire professional career) yet is being celebrated. Arraez can already hold his own in MLB while Gordon is still underachieving in AAA. Arraez is also too low in general, and Gordon too high, regardless of how the two compare to one another.
  21. drivlikejehu
    Arraez is pretty unusual. The best comps I could find over the past 10-15 years are Marco Scutaro, Jamey Carroll, and Placido Polanco, all infielders with good plate discipline, high contact rates, but so-so speed and power. Polanco was a great defender, which made him very valuable (though underappreciated at the time). Arraez' statcast numbers so far are interesting . . . his exit velocity and launch angle are pretty solid for a contact-oriented hitter. He's hit a lot of balls 'pretty well' but hasn't really crushed many. I think he has more raw power than Scutaro and Carroll did, not sure about Polanco. Arraez has always had very high BABIP numbers in the minors, which isn't a very reliable data point but is at least noteworthy. Overall, I'm not sure what to make of him. The fact he's 22 and 2 months is definitely a major plus, because there's reason to think he can learn to translate more of his raw power into his hitting approach. He's a no-doubt Big Leaguer, it's just a question of how likely he is to be a utility/journeyman sort as opposed to a solid starter. Maybe it's 50/50.
  22. drivlikejehu
    How can he cost the Twins games from AAA?
  23. drivlikejehu
    The only reason this is like a 0.001% chance instead of 0.000% chance is the relationship between Falvey and the Indians. But Cleveland would have to completely disintegrate and fall out of the WC race, and have to get low-balled by everyone else, and the Twins would have to miss out on other targets, etc. Not really worth thinking about.
  24. drivlikejehu
    It was ugly to watch, I agree. But the fact is that Sano has had brutal series before, as do all players. He has had periods of elevated strikeouts before. Sano has adjusted before, many times, usually not in a way we can really observe. Otherwise his MLB career would already be over. I do think there will come a day when his approach won't work. I'm not interested in the Twins having him under contract for his early 30s. But in the here and now, his strengths are most likely sufficient to off-set the weaknesses. His former high prospect status and scorching debut raised expectations that I think are impacting how fans view Sano today. Gleeman has done a good job talking about this. It's not what we hoped for, but Sano can still provide solid value to this club.
  25. drivlikejehu
    I didn't. Converse however you like. But other posters should be allowed to apply logical reasoning to your statements. If you say 'X player should be demoted,' but then don't provide objective support for that statement, others may disagree with you and provide reasons why your statement is incorrect. Numbers are often just a medium for expressing a concept. For instance, 'X player should not be demoted because they can reasonably be expected to do Y.' In that case, the quantity 'Y' is only a shorthand for a general concept, e.g., 'X player is pretty decent, let's keep him around.'
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