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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    If it was smart to just follow mlb.com rankings, teams sure could save a lot of money on amateur scouting! There were major question marks around all the guys available at #13. That's why they were still available. Stott for instance has unusual swing and throwing mechanics and plays in a good hitters' environment (UNLV didn't hit all that well but their pitchers had a collective 5.85 ERA). With a younger player, especially with good athleticism, there is time to improve. Cavaco is almost 4 years younger than Stott.
  2. drivlikejehu
    None of the listed names have any significant amount of trade value.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Would be interested to see if Stewart would increase his velocity significantly out of the bullpen.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Rooker's prospect status has taken a huge hit, without a doubt. Arguably he was overrated before the season anyway, but now he's probably not top 20. I'm still fine with the fact that the Twins drafted him, but it didn't work out.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Jay is a bust, no question (regardless of whether he winds up spending some time as a lefty specialist) . . . pitchers from that 2015 first round in general have turned out very poorly to date, except for Walker Buehler (who lasted all the way to #24).
  6. drivlikejehu
    Kirilloff is a great prospect, no doubt. But it only makes sense to bring him up if he's ready to make an impact, not just hold his own. It's still very much an open question whether he will be at that point in a couple of months.
  7. drivlikejehu
    I was at the Pensacola game. The stadium radar gun seemed legit, with Cutura sitting 88-90 and the Jumbo Shrimp starter in the same neighborhood. Poppen sat 95-96 out of the pen with the fastball, and a hard slider 85-86. He has a low 3/4 delivery and good movement, but had so-so command. With some fairly modest improvement, he looks like an MLB middle reliever to me. Arraez had really nice PAs. He has a good eye and made some hard contact. He looked more athletic than I was expecting.
  8. drivlikejehu
    List of all relievers signed by small/mid-market clubs this off-season, for more than a $5 million commitment (total, not per year): St. Louis - Andrew Miller - 2/25 Oakland - Joakim Soria - 2/15 San Diego - Garrett Richards - 2/15 That's it. Granted, this is out of 13 total players (Kimbrel will eventually be #14). Six of the 13 signed with a team that plays in New York or Los Angeles. San Diego has obviously been on a spending spree. I did think the Twins might add someone like Soria or Cody Allen, but the reality is that free agent relievers are not highly valued by MLB clubs in general. The huge market teams don't really care if $10 million a year goes up in smoke, so they sign guys for depth and don't worry too much about the dubious nature of the investment. In addition to their high level of uncertainty, relievers are also the most practical players to acquire during the year via trade (i.e., at a prospect & salary price that even the Twins could easily pay). So while there are a lot of complaints about the Twins approach, this is what small and mid-market teams do, including the ones that are unquestionably well-run. The Twins front office certainly won't look good if the bullpen is awful, but I'm not going to pre-judge it.
  9. drivlikejehu
    The small number of bench spots precludes bringing in platoon-only guys. Kepler has a career wRC+ of 61 against LHP. When Gonzalez starts against a LHP in his spot, it's like replacing Jorge Polanco in the lineup with Manny Machado. Maybe that's not a big difference to you, I dunno. But the same basic thing will happen over and over again - Gonzalez will significantly boost the lineup most of the games that he starts in. Sure, he might wind up taking over one particular spot due to injury or ineffectiveness. Since the alternative would be an inferior player attempting to do the same, his value remains strong in that scenario as well. The simple fact is that Gonzalez makes the team better (unless he gets hurt or tanks, of course). There is no scenario where Gonzalez plays decently yet adds no wins. It's impossible. Unless the Pohlad family was going to give you the money that instead went to Gonzalez, it's a no-brainer move.
  10. drivlikejehu
    This is not correct. For one thing, you simply are not accounting for the very real benefit in platoon splits that Gonzalez permits. Very few players play 162 games in a year, even when totally healthy. Even if every Twins starter is healthy and basically performs at the expected level or above, Gonzalez would improve a lineup spot by 15-20%+ in almost every game he plays. If anything, Gonzalez' WAR would tend to understate his impact, because he could take up plate appearances that otherwise would have gone to below replacement level options. Cave, for instance, is clearly below replacement level against LHP (yet, 23% of his PAs last year were against LHP). That's another example of why your analysis is arithmetically wrong - looking at annual projections ignores the fact that Gonzalez will be replacing a particular portion of various players' performance. If he takes 10% of Kepler's PAs, Kepler will not lose 10% of his WAR - in fact, his WAR could easily *increase* because he was removed from particularly unfavorable matchups. Once you understand where specifically that Gonzalez' PAs will come from, it is unequivocal that he will increase the Twins' expected wins, both "ceiling" and "floor."
  11. drivlikejehu
    It adds something like 1.5 - 2 wins. That's really not "minor," particularly when you consider where the Twins sit from a projection standpoint.
  12. drivlikejehu
    Why would you hope that? Does platoon advantage only count when the starting player is left-handed? Gonzalez will play all over, so he's not really a platoon partner to anyone . . . but there's no doubt he's a major upgrade over Rosario/Kepler against LHP and Schoop/Cron against RHP. So the regular starters get days off they need anyway and the lineup is improved significantly at the same time.
  13. drivlikejehu
    Against same-handed pitching, he's an upgrade on most of the lineup.
  14. drivlikejehu
    Gonzalez is a solid hitter from both sides of the plate. He will get plenty of ABs to shield other players from unfavorable platoon match-ups. His two best infield positions defensively are 1B and 2B - I think the Twins signed him because of the question marks on the right side of the infield, in addition to the general versatility. In a given week, I'd expect something like 1 start in LF, 1 start in RF, 1 start at 2B, 1 start at SS, 1-2 starts at 1B.
  15. drivlikejehu
    I don't think there's any reason to suggest the front office sees the contract as anything other than a fair deal, which is exactly what it looks like to me. Agents negotiate contracts for a living and Kepler's agent got him a lot of guaranteed money relative to what he has shown to date. Before making this deal, the Twins corner outfield situation was: Kepler under control through 2022, Rosario under control through 2021, with one elite corner outfield prospect who could be ready in 2020 or even earlier, one very good corner outfield prospect who could be ready in 2021 or even earlier, and several other prospects who could be in the picture over the next several years (Rooker, Baddoo, Lewis if SS doesn't work out, etc.). There's really nothing about that picture that made extending Kepler a high priority. Even if the Twins want Kepler around as CF insurance, he was under control through 2022 anyway, and beyond that he might not really be suited to center. They have some young outfield prospects who may emerge by then as well. To me this is basically a straightforward reflection of the fact that the front office is optimistic Kepler will be a productive hitter going forward.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Clear over-ranking I think.
  17. drivlikejehu
    That is not what I meant at all. Trading prospects for MLB players frequently makes sense. But a lot of posters here articulate highly unrealistic strategies and scenarios; the main conceit being that, if the Twins were just smarter, they could convert low-value minor leaguers into quality major leaguers.
  18. drivlikejehu
    The Pirates got an MLB starting pitcher, MLB starting 3rd baseman, MLB reliever, and decent prospect for Cole. The alleged Twins price didn't compare to that at all, which really makes it hard to believe. In general, most posters dramatically, comically overrate the trade value of Twins prospects. The whole 'why don't the Twins trade away X, Y, Z for awesome MLB players' is an exercise totally divorced from reality. The players that fans want are not available in exchange for B-level prospects. Other MLB teams are not interested in giving away MLB assets for the likes of Brent Rooker. It is very rare to have a "surplus" of high-level prospects . . . certainly a trade would make sense in that scenario, but I can't think of a single time it applied to the Twins, and it doesn't now either.
  19. drivlikejehu
    Not seeing it, Kimbrell is having trouble getting teams interested in his demands and his agent probably wants to gin up the appearance of other clubs being in the mix.
  20. drivlikejehu
    I think Berrios would have to be open to an extension . . . the injury risk for pitchers is just too high to hold out if a reasonable offer is on the table. He would definitely be my #1 target. Beyond him, it gets a lot dicier. I'd probably try to extend Gibson, but it's not worth doing if the price is basically the same as what it would be in free agency. With the positions players, there are major question marks with all of them . . . the 2019 season will provide additional clarity on where it would make sense to invest.
  21. drivlikejehu
    I can't fault Falvey or Levine for taking a job that was conditional on maintaining a low payroll. There just aren't very many baseball exec jobs to go around, and a decent chunk of those are with cheap owners. Is it kind of irritating that they also have to cover for ownership, and deflect criticism over the payroll? Sure. But I seriously doubt that they enjoy that aspect of the job.
  22. drivlikejehu
    I tried to understand the idea behind this list, but failed. It's not current value, future value, trade value, 2019 projection . . . seems more like a symptom of a slow-to-date off-season.
  23. drivlikejehu
    Completely incorrect. The Twins ownership has explicitly said this is not the case, and in fact MLB teams in general do not operate the way you seem to think.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Interesting sports-show debate topic, but I guess the part I don't get is why the Twins need to extend either of them. Even if the Twins want to retain Odorizzi, the odds of him turning into a #2 starter or something (and the league buying into it) are extremely small. The Twins have plenty of payroll space and could just re-sign him in free agency, paying a little more but avoiding a lot of risk. Gibson is a little trickier because I could see him getting a high-ish AAV in free agency.
  25. drivlikejehu
    I think Polanco needs to go to 2nd because the Twins desperately need above-average position players out there, and his poor defense at SS would limit Polanco to being around average, even with his offensive ability. The issue of course is that the Twins then need to find an average or better shortstop. Posters here are not too excited about Iglesias, but factoring in defense he's roughly average. Trades are very difficult to project but I'm sure the Twins will explore that avenue.
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