Brandon

There are still lots of options out there for starters in the range of where I expect the Twins to play. I think a trade for one is out there, a Pineda signing, and ........ I would actually be happy if the Twins just resigned Pineda before the lockout to a 2 year deal. I am not as high on Ray as others. I am fine if we sign him and fine if we don't. The Twins front office met their critical objective with me in terms of getting Buxton resigned. While last year was awful for the Twins FO in picking FA, they have had success there in the past. as long as whoever they sign get a full spring training in, (meaning if they sign a starter during spring training, then that pitcher should start the season on the DL so they can get a more complete spring training in and be able to compete when they arrive in the Twin Cities). Then I am good.

Tori checks lots if extra boxes for reasons to be in the Hall. Minority, great with team mates, media, loved by fans, winner, so if you can justify with counting stats like 900XBH or 2600 hits or 525 2Bs or 375 HRs 1500 RBI, 9 gold gloves and 200 career steals. All of which were within possibility with 2 more seasons, Torii would be in the Hall. With 800 or so more ABs he would likely hit or been close to those numbers ....

I would tender all of them. The most questionable decision is a low cost decision that I hope the FO isn't too worried about. Coloumbe is the biggest question and at 800k or 1 million is not too much for a pen arm. Rogers probably depends on progress from surgery. But I don't see nontendering him.

So if we can sign a pitcher now before the lock out...... Perfect...... We would be set up to trade for a starter and sign a desperate pitcher at a cut rate due to spring training being underway..... Too bad Kluber signed already....

I feel like he is just short. Another 800 or so ABs might have given him enough counting stats accross the board. I did an analysis on him a while back. I think Tori had 6 All Star appearances. 8 seems to be the number for guarenteed enshrinement. With those extra 800 or so AB Tori could push his career extra base totals to over 900. His career steals to 200 his career hit total to over 2600 and his RBI total to over 1525. At that point he would have a case as an all round player with his 9 gold gloves and media and fan favorite. Where he is at now, I put his odds in the 10 to 20 percent chance range. One thing he has going for him is i doubt anyone suspects him of using steroids back then. While he was only a 110 OPS hitter he did that against alot of steroid users so that may help his case. Was he really 110 or was he a 125 against a nondoping field? How much did steroids affect the competition during his career? I think if this narrative gets pushed alot his odds go up.

I haven't heard anything about his preferences. We knew Shoteni wanted a west coast smaller market team. I know nothing of what this other player wants.

Since Simmons will get more than 3 million. There are several team interested in him including the Yankees. If we can use the 5 million in savings toward the Buxton extension that would. be great. I wonder if the Twins are waiting to see if the Yankees sign Seager to trade Buxton to NY for their SS prospects.

Why not do both. Sign a good middle of the road Free Agent like Pineda and trade for a rotation arm like Bassit. and now you have 2 rotation arms for around or just over 20 million for 2022. then we are 1 starter away and a SS and a bullpen arm from a good offseason.

The Twins are loaded with starting pitchers in the minors who are only a year away. Duran, Balazovich, SRW, Cole, Winder.... There is also Canterino, Enlow, Varland just to name a few others. I would think the Twins would want a starter on a 1 year deal and another on a 2 year deal and a third starter on any contract because of this.

Among the A's starters Bassitt makes the most sense to acquire on several fronts. 1. He costs less in terms of prospect capital. and 2. The cost to extend him will not be too much. He could probably be extended for a 2 year or 3 year for 15-18 million per season range. I would think a 3 year 45-50 million gets it done. Bassitt is 33 and has made only 8.25 million thus far. the guarantee of that size should be a big value to him and his family. To extend Montas will likely cost more in years and money per season. and the talent difference between the two is not that big. To get Montas I think the Twins would need to include a SP prospect and position player prospect and maybe 1 or 2 lottery tickets in low A or Moran or Gore also make sense. I imagine the prospect pool that Oakland would want to deal from would include: Arreaz, Rooker, Miranda, Jeffries, Larnarch, Martin, and Lewis. I imagine Killeroff is off limits but we see how the front office hates players they did not bring in so Rooker is probably less likely to be dealt then Killeroff. Also this makes Miranda a top prospect to deal too.... I could see Oakland wanting Miranda and Rooker and Moran and a low a lotto ticket. that would replace the power lost from dealing Chapman and Olsen. and give a bullpen piece.

Kluber would be the third starter type brought in. In my scenario above. Pineda and Bassitt were the two big names and Kluber is the third. remember we have lots of starting pitching prospects who should be ready for a turn starting in 2022 season so if someone gets hurt or is underperforming we will have options. having a 1 year commitment helps too cause we will likely want that rotation spot next year for the young guys coming up. (Duran, Winder, Balazovich, Richardson-Woods, and Cole with Canterino not far behind them.

I will say if the Twins trade Buxton and he signs an 8 year 120 million contract with 30 million in incentives, There will be very few people bothering to go to Twins games until we have a trustworthy new front office. and the fact that the current offer is 1 year and 50 million less than that even.......Lets wait and see but wow this is bad from where we sit.

So far my top 50 predictions are way off. I had Noah Syndergaard excepting the QO and Rodriguez in SF.

I think Bassitt should be their top pitcher to acquire. At his age and only one year of control, the cost to obtain him will not be as high. I thought he had 2 years of control remaining. plus Bassitt hasn't made as much at this point in his career. The Twins could offer him a 2 or 3 year extension for around the 15-20 million per season. I doubt he wouldn't be amenable at this stage of his career. He is entering his age 33 season having made 8.25 million thus far. a 3 year 45 million contract for his age 33, 34 and 35 seasons. or 4 and 64 through age 36. so for Minnesota he is going to cost less in talent, less for an extension and he has less mileage on his arm. How does this not have Minnesota written all over this deal? And from Oakland the cost to get his would be some prospects. probably something like Winder and Moran and maybe a low a flyer or filler. If Oakland is committing to trading their top 5 players for prospects they will wat players who are close to ready so they can come up next season and return to contention quickly. If those 5 players can net them 8-10 strong prospects plus another 5-10 low level players plus they do have a good farm system if I remember correctly then they would return to contention quickly.

The teams dealing starting pitching thus far: Miami, Cincinnati. and Oakland. only 1 is seeking major league offense and the other 2 are going into a full rebuild so prospects....

From the group in the article, I see Kluber as the top choice. I see the Twins with 2 short term contracts a 1 year and a 2 year deal. The third starter could be for any number of years. The Twins have too much pitching close to the majors to not give several of them opportunities. Kluber on a 1 year deal. 12 million Pineda on a 2 year deal 11 million per year Chris Bassit in a trade with Oakland 10.5 million total cost is 33.5 million so we have money for other needs.

Here are a few thoughts to consider. The Twins have something in the neighborhood of 5 or 6 solid starting Pitching prospects in AA or AAA going into 2022. Jhoan Duran, Balazovich, Richardson-Woods, Winder, Sands, and Valimont, plus Canterino and Varland and Enlow when he recovers from injury. I think it would be smart for the Twins to get a starting pitcher with a year of control, another with 2 years, and the third starter we acquire this offseason doesn't matter. By reducing the amount spent on our rotation in 2023 and 2024 will allow us to keep more of our offensive core together longer. So that would be Kluber on a 1 year deal, Pineda on a 2 year deal, and the other starter can be by trade or signing and can be 2 or more years of team control. I too was thinking of a Buxton to NY trade this morning. and when i did that and we acquired a top SS prospect and a starting pitcher the team budget came in 17 million under budget cause we signed one less starting pitcher and low cost SS of either Villar or Galvis and an OF who can play CF some like Pillar. This was so Martin or Celestino could get the call up about a month or two into the season.

Trades are hard to figure fair value and to determine proper needs of the other team. I think you did a good job. I was nitpicking to challenge you is all. Great job.

Nice outside the box thinking. On your Arizona trade, I doubt the want to trade for a closer 1 year from FA. Maybe its a 3 team trade or there is somone else with value. Also Graveman and Rogers are making about the same.. There is no need to swap them out. Also what do we get for Donaldson and where is he traded? I think Story and Strom get more years on their contracts.

I m indifferent. I always thought if a bench coach as someone who is a utility player type of coach. Can pitch in a lot of roles and is also there to help strategize. This type of coach can have a different type of personality but isnt necessarily required. I think other coaches can be that too.

I do want to add that with so many teams with so much money available to spend, I think the higher end of the FA market will get expensive. Even the 2nd tier will get more than would otherwise. just my opinion.

Here is my first stab at this, I just did another updated one with updated info.

I did this when it first came out. but with more information heading into the offseason I changed things around. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yAVU-C2u6hY40oiAI3cGh1eEU82GHYJXfDORGJxnERY/edit?usp=sharing I originally had us signing Taylor to be our SS. But with his name becoming more front and center. I also have read the Twins are willing to consider bringing back Simmons and he was a gold glove caliber SS. So I brought him back at a base of 8.00 million. Galvis or Villar could go here too since this is a stop gap. I just think that we already know Simmons and he is a defensive specialist. I do think he can be an 80 to 90 OPS hitter again. I also brought back Cruz in this scenario but at 10 million 1 year deal. I did that for nostalgia more than anything otherwise I am open to the Rosario experience again at 7-8 million I also considered that a short term deal would be better. As Martin will be ready to step into the equation as is Miranda. and if Larnarch or Rooker start hitting overall then we will have an overabundance of bats....but fo rnow we have a slight shortage. Most importantly I signed Buxton to an extension. an 8 year 80 million guarantee with incentives totaling another 120 million if all are reached. (Don't ask me to explain the incentives I haven't fully made them up yet but I feel the ability to make 25 million per season seems realistic. on the bench I brought in the rookies Rooker and Gordon though Larnarch could be there too. For the pen. I kept the pen from last year though added Yates on an incentive laded contract. I would just do nothing and keep Jax in the pen. But i love the potential of Yates if he is able to come back from whatever injury ended his season early last season. In the rotation I resigned Pineda to a 2 year 22 million contract. I also signed Matz to a 3 year 42 million deal. (Since Gray wasn't offered a QO I would do a 4 year 15 million deal for him if he would take it). Other options include Smyly, Desclafani, Duffy, Note: Desclafani and Gray were not offered a QO. so no draft picks attached to them. We need one more starter. I signed Fiers. He is coming off of some injury I do not know what it is. I am assuming he is ready to go opening day. At his age we can move him to the pen if needed or if Maeda is ready to return or if another starter is ready to bump him from the minors. Other options include Quintana, Lester, Hill, Andrew Heaney, Jordan Lyles, Urena, and Peralta among others. If we had another 10 million in the budget I would go get another starter with more appeal but we are out of money so the only other option is to trade. then that would create another hole. and of course if i didnt sign Cruz we would have more money for pitching. and that is a real possibility. I think if either Rooker or Larnarch convinced they were ready and could make adjustments then we wouldnt get Cruz. But i think if we are going to contend then we want a strong offense. Gant and Dobnak are our 6th and 7th starters. Total budget is 132.15 million. just a little above the 130 million. and that is before incentives for the new extensions and contracts. Next I will look at making some trades. then i will make one with unrealistic expectations.

I wrote a plan but do not see it above. I did mine early on.

So many teams have money to spend this offseason. I read that Miami, Mariners, Giants, Detroit, and even Cleveland has little money committed to next year and beyond. Knowing this I think the Twins will sign Pineda, and another starter like Matz, Duffy, Smyly. I would like to put Gray in this list but agree he is trending toward staying in Colorado. But someone in the 10-14 million per season range. The third starter will come via trade. I do not expect us to like any third pitcher we sign so i will go with trade for the last starter. but if we do sign a third starter it will be someone like Fiers, Rich Hill again, Lester, Quintana, I wonder if Odorizzi is available in trade? on SS it would be nice to see us sign a good SS. I was hoping we could get someone like Chris Taylor but he is now a known quantity and his price went up with his post season. so I have us either resigning Simmons or signing VIllar The bullpen is a crap shoot of who they will sign. so I wont bother for now. I do think they have a good pen going into next year as is so its not like they have to do anything but if they can sign an upgrade at a value price they will do it. I doubt they will pay market price for anyone in the pen since they have been good at finding value relievers. And if all goes well we extend Buxton. I think this would be a good offseason for us too.