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Everything posted by amjgt
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Simmons Placed on COVID-IL, Riddle Added
amjgt replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Unfortunately, many of the Twins who did get vaccinated last Friday might not have had time to build up their initial immunity before being exposed, either by Simmons, or by whoever infected Simmons. Definitely in for a few days of holding our collective breath. -
Notebook: Twins-Red Sox Series Opener Postponed
amjgt replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Will do -
Notebook: Twins-Red Sox Series Opener Postponed
amjgt replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I know that was the main reason. Most people know that was the main reason, but it was framed as something else. I just think that that framing will make it difficult to not respect a fallen officer the next time it happens. After all, they rely on law enforcement officers for stadium security. -
Notebook: Twins-Red Sox Series Opener Postponed
amjgt replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is a difficult precedent to come back from. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad precedent, but it definitely is one. It’s nearly impossible for the Twins to play a baseball game the day after the next time a MN law enforcement officer gets killed in the line of duty. Not because those two events are similar, but because they are inherently linked. And maybe they shouldn’t play in that case, but as a poster said above, you can’t cancel a game every time there’s an injustice or tragedy (edited to add: or maybe you can... we’ve just had a relative lot recently) and who becomes the arbiter of that. -
Notebook: Twins-Red Sox Series Opener Postponed
amjgt replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
When I hear that, all I can think is... "we were hoping things would cool down, but they didn't." If at 8am, after consulting literally nobody the Twins would have said "out of respect for the tragic events.... the game is postponed." And they could've told anyone with a problem with that to pound sand. THAT would have been a statement. -
Notebook: Twins-Red Sox Series Opener Postponed
amjgt replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't understand the "as early as possible" part of your post. If they did it for the reason they said, then what changed between 7am and 1:30pm? Don't get me wrong, I support the postponement. I just think they really screwed up by waiting until the last minute, when most of the fans were already there, ready to see a baseball game. -
Projecting the Saints' Opening Day Roster
amjgt replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm curious to see if that adjusts over the next handful of years because of the geographic realignment of MiLB -
Revisiting the Kenta Maeda Trade a Year Later
amjgt replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Maeda's contract is so good that you almost don't want to touch it, but just for the sake of argument what might be some options for a contract revision, that leave both sides happy. Current Contract: 2021-2023 Base Salary - $3M $250k for each 10 inning threshold from 90ip-200ip $1M for each of 15GS and 20GS $1.5M for each of 25GS, 30GS, and 32GS Opening day Roster Bonus of $150k What the Twins might want: Additional Years, Cost certainty What Maeda might want: Guaranteed Money If we look at a good year for Kenta, let's call it 30GS and 170ip. That would be $10.4M. With any sort of significant time missed, it's pretty easy for his salary to drop to $5M. And with a season ending injury, all he's really guaranteed is $3M The next three years are his age 33,34,and 35 season. So, it's not like you're dying to add on years. But what about something like: 4yr/32M + Team Option for $8M in year 5? Who says no to that? -
Cody’s Top-20 Twins Prospects: 1-5
amjgt replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
ESPN's top 100 prospect list just came out 15 - Lewis 22 - Kirilloff 37 - Larnach 57 - Jeffers 92 - Balazovic -
Seems to me that generally, PECOTA dislikes young players. So that's one thing going against Chicago. I can't say that I know Chicago's depth very well, but that tends to be a big variable with PECOTA based on how they dole out playing time. IP or AB isn't a variable that they consider in their percentile outcomes. Maeda pitches 150 innings in his 5th percentile season and 150 innings in his 99th percentile season (or whatever his IP number is). It's a flaw that if they had a great answer for, they would've implemented it. This indirectly forces depth to be more of an issue than it might be. So, if your depth is young guys and PECOTA doesn't like young guys.... that's one way to get the CWS to 83 wins
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Cody’s Top-20 Twins Prospects: 1-5
amjgt replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
This is one reason I half expected to scroll down and see Jeffers in the 75-100 range. Seems like just the type of guy Law would want to be "first" on. Although if I'm not mistaken, there was a list that had Jeffers top 100 earlier this offseason -
Cody’s Top 20 Twins Prospect: 16-20
amjgt replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
What is generally thought of the competition level of PR winter ball? Would someone who's played high A be expected to have great stats?- 9 replies
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- danny de andrade
- jose miranda
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I have no idea if they would hang up. Guessing trade values is so tough. But I feel like we'd be sacrificing assets that the Reds WOULD have interest in. And you don't have to squint very hard to see a path to the Twins losing that trade (not counting a pitcher blowing out their arm, or something). As for payroll? The three coming to the Twins in that trade, raise the payroll by 30M or so, which would put us around $120M. Spend another $8M on 2 veteran RP and 1 veteran utility man, then fill everything else internally. Boom 130M payroll, with a very solid lineup and the best SP rotation in the AL.
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How Many Roster Spots are Locked in for 2021?
amjgt replied to Cooper Carlson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Except that's not really how it was framed. If he isn't going to list them as starting SS and 2B, then they need to be listed on the bench. They can't just not count against the 16 roster locks he mentions at the end of the article. -
How Many Roster Spots are Locked in for 2021?
amjgt replied to Cooper Carlson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah. The Cave lock is where he lost me. He's willing to set a very high bar for "lock" by leaving off Polanco and Arraez because of trades (certainly possible, but not likely). OK Fine. I disagree, but whatever. However then he still has Cave in there as a lock, ignoring the very real possibility that the Twins sign a 4th OF that's a better fit for this roster (Right-handed, plays good CF), which would likely mean Cave isn't on the roster. -
How Do You Plan on Following the Twins in 2021?
amjgt replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is me, except for one big caveat. Sports fans are purposely being yanked around by these streaming services as they hot potato around streaming sports trying to get their hooks (read: automated payments) into new customers, only to yank the carpet out from under them in a couple months. The only reason that is possible is because MLB's local blackout rules need to be updated. I'm sure there are some contractual restrictions that are preventing this, but it needs to be figured out. I don't cord cut, but I understand people that do. But if you're paying significantly less money I don't see how you can expect the same service and/or stability. But you should expect SOME stability. -
Because I think obscene trade speculation is fun. Gray, Castillo, and Moustakas for Garver, Arraez, Larnach, Duran, Cavaco Not that I want Moustakas, but he's the price of doing business and he can slide in to replace Arraez at 2b. Garver's 2020 obviously sucked but his 2019 was incredible and the the Twins can afford to trade him to a team that can use him more. As for the prospects, who knows. Duran and Balazovich are a horse a piece and really I'd probably be willing to swap out Larnach and put in Lewis if they insisted (but i'd remove Cavaco in that case) This adds about 30M in payroll for 2021, but that's within the window of "payroll is going down, but not to 100M" As for the product on the field in 2021. Adding Castillo and Gray to Maeda, Berrios, and Pineda gives us the best rotation in the AL and they are both under team control for 3 more years (Gray has a 12M team option in 2023 and Castillo is in arb 1). Losing Arraez sucks, but you have to give some to get some and while we all love him, with his body type, it's possible that he turns into a minus 2b defensively while hitting an empty .320. Losing the prospects hurts, but you've pushed your 2021-2023 chips into the middle and sacrificing some of the future is worth it, IMO.
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What Does the Francisco Lindor Trade Mean for the Twins?
amjgt replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
No reason for Cleveland not to trade Ramirez at this point. They might as well maximize value with his remaining 3 years left (the last two are inexpensive options of 11m & 13m). -
Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2021: Part 4 (1-5)
amjgt replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
We've come to my first major disagreement with your rankings. On the open market I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that Berrios would get more in return than Kepler. If we fast forward a year when Jose's service time is cut in half and we still have 3 or 4 more years of Kep, that might change, but I can't get on board with 2 years of Jose being less valuable than (insert any number here) years of Kepler And I like Kep Also, I think there should be a little "spiff" in your rankings for the fact that the team has exclusive negotiating rights with a player while he's still in arb- 25 replies
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Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2021: Part 3 (6-10)
amjgt replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's like the Rays have an internal rule to never let a player reach their final year of arbitration, which, to be honest, is a pretty interesting concept if you're disciplined enough to do it.- 25 replies
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- trevor larnach
- byron buxton
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MLB Needs to grab the bull by the horns and figure out this streaming thing. The people that are in control of the FS(insert geography here) broadcast situation, which is not MLB in this case have, no incentive to act in the best interest of fans. They treat streaming rights as a 4 month hot potato sold to the highest bidder and the fans who are just trying to do the right (legal) thing are the ones who get hosed. Too much more of this and more and more people will just deal with the moral issues of pirating the broadcast, since it feels like they've been pirating our ability to watch baseball for two years now.
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2021 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects
amjgt commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Re: Jeffers I agree with the poster about top 3 (or maybe 4), because of the reasons he laid out. Some people had him as high as 6 last offseason, and while I agree a 26 game sample isn't enough to tell us much about his offense, what we saw from him as a catcher is less reliant on small sample size flukes. The above average defense, the team showing very high confidence in him, and the small sample of good offense in MLB is enough for me to push him above Larnach for sure.- 5 comments
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10 Things to be Thankful For: Minnesota Twins Edition
amjgt replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Jeffers is still technically a prospect right (ie. Rookie of the Year eligible) -
Who Should the Twins Protect from the Rule 5 Draft?
amjgt replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Bailey Ober strikes me as exactly the type of guy a team will take a flyer on. Then release him in Spring Training and have him go to another team for a couple weeks... Rinse and repeat until he makes it through waivers and ends up at someone's AAA affiliate. Exactly the thing an oft-injured player needs. Relentless instability- 31 replies
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- jordan balazovic
- brent rooker
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