Nash Walker

I agree with your rankings Ted. I may rather see the Rays than Yankees if no more than to avoid pain.

The Minnesota Twins were in need of a big inning and a comfortable victory. They checked both boxes Saturday night at Wrigley Field. This was another nail-biter until the Twins tallied five runs in the seventh inning, then cruised to a victory that clinched a spot in the playoffs.Box Score Pineda: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K Home Runs: Rosario (12), Sanó (13), Donaldson (6) Top 3 WPA: Rosario .196, Pineda .180, Sanó .093 *win probability chart above (via FanGraphs) Your Minnesota Twins are going back to the postseason after an 8-1 win over the Cubs Saturday. Michael Pineda started and gave the Twins five strong innings, allowing only four hits and one run with no walks. Pineda struggled with his command early but was helped by stellar plays from his defense. Ehire Adrianza, with two outs and runners on second and third in the second inning, threw out Nico Hoerner on a bunt attempt. The Cubs got a hit-by-pitch, a single and a double but were only able to score one run in the frame. Pineda now has a 3.18 ERA through four starts. Eddie Rosario got the offense going with a solo blast in the first inning. With a 1-0 Cubs victory last night, the two teams combined to score three runs through the first 14 innings of the series. Recognizing this, manager Rocco Baldelli pulled strings to manufacture a run following a leadoff walk from Alex Avila in the sixth. Avila moved to second on a swinging bunt from LaMonte Wade Jr., who squared up to actually bunt on the first pitch, fouling it off. With both Ryan Jeffers and Mitch Garver available to catch, Baldelli sent out Cave to pinch run for Avila. It paid off. Seemingly to Pineda’s dismay, the Twins opted to hand Tyler Duffey the ball for the sixth with a 2-1 lead. He pitched a tidy 1-2-3 frame, dicing up the heart of the Cubs’ order in Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber. Then came the boom. Leading off the seventh, Miguel Sanó hit a ball to Waveland Avenue. Max Kepler followed up the homer with a double into the Ivy in left field. The Twins then went single, hit-by-pitch, fielder’s choice (no out), single, flyout, single for four more runs. Perhaps the most encouraging, Mitch Garver pinch hit with the bases loaded and ripped a full count liner to left to score two runs. The Twins opened up a 7-1 lead, pounding the Cubs away. Matt Wisler threw two outstanding innings, striking out six and allowing just a single. Wisler, who was acquired this offseason off waivers, brought his season ERA down to 1.11. What a find. Josh Donaldson blasted an opposite field home run in the ninth to up his OPS to .863 on the year. The Twins played a strong all-around game, flashing their much-improved defense and getting clutch hits. They’ll go for the series tomorrow night against Yu Darvish, who owns a sterling 1.86 ERA. Ticket = punched. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Bullpen.png Click here to view the article

The Twins have lost two in a row and four of their last five. They’ll look to get on track Saturday against the Cubs right-hander Alec Mills, who is coming off a no-hitter.Yesterday's Game Recap CHC 1, MIN 0 - The Professor Schools Twins Today: Twins (31-22) @ Cubs (31-20), 7:15 pm CDT No offense, but the Twins’ has disappeared Entering the White Sox series, the Twins were rolling. Since then, they’ve hit .189 with a .646 OPS, scoring 11 total runs over their last five games. The pitching staff has posted a solid 3.29 ERA in that 41 inning span. As has been the case for much of 2020, the Twins’ losses aren’t due to poor pitching and defense. Can they turn it around Saturday? No-hitters in Chi-Town Lucas Giolito won’t be the only pitcher to face the Twins after throwing a no-no. Alec Mills struck out five and held the Brewers to zero knocks in his last start. Coming in to that game, Mills had a 4.74 ERA. The right-hander has given up eight home runs in 52 ⅔ innings. Mills has extreme platoon splits through nine starts in 2020. Righties are hitting just .150 with a .487 OPS, while lefties are hitting .243 with a .771 OPS. Perhaps the Twins start three lefties in the outfield with Jake Cave giving Byron Buxton a day off in center. It’s also a good night for Alex Avila to start behind the plate. Mills ranks below league average in expected ERA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and expected wOBA. His no-hitter last Sunday was a great example of the difference in contact and results. Mills gave up 11 (!) hard-hit balls but didn’t allow a single hit. Maybe it’s unfair to call it luck but uh… he’s been lucky. Big Mike goes back to work for Minnesota Michael Pineda has been a stabilizing force for the Twins. He owns a 3.57 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 17 ⅔ innings. Pineda, a three-pitch pitcher, has thrown the heck out of his slider in 2020. Opponents are whiffing at over a 50% rate and hitting just .125 off it. Pineda is unleashing it much more against lefties than he did in 2019, a la Kenta Maeda. It’s working for both of them. WHAT TO WATCH FOR: The Cubs’ offense ranks 17th in wOBA (.315), 20th in wRC+ (95), and 18th in OPS (.722)Pineda’s slider should match up very well with Kris Bryant and Javier Báez, who’ve struggled mightily against breaking balls this year.Lefties Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber and switch-hitter Ian Happ will be the key outs.Byron Buxton and Josh Donaldson have played in five straight games. Look for one or both to get a day off Saturday.Only Caleb Thielbar pitched Friday (thanks to Rich Hill), so the Twins’ bullpen should be well rested.If Buxton plays, will he lead off with Kepler back in the lineup?Around the AL Central: Chicago White Sox 33-18 (+74 run differential) Minnesota Twins 31-22 (+44) Cleveland Indians 28-23 (+37) Detroit Tigers 21-29 (-64) Kansas City Royals 21-30 (-27) Click here to view the article

The Twins, despite a radically different season and playoff format, have seemingly found a way to play the Yankees in the first round. Let’s look at some pros and cons of facing New York in a three-game set.As of Friday, the Twins have a one game lead on the Yankees as the No. 4 seed. The Bronx Bombers have won eight straight games, hitting a ridiculous 27 home runs. It’s absolutely possible, and maybe even likely that the Twins will have to travel to the Bronx for the entirety of the first round. That’s… not ideal. The Twins are 2-17 at Yankee Stadium since 2015. The case for wanting to face New York Slaying the dragon The Yankees’ ownership of the Twins in October is one of the most well-visited fads in all of sports. The Yanks are 16-2 against Minnesota in the postseason, including 13 straight wins. The Twins’ 16 game playoff win drought is tied for the longest in North American sports history. Even as an incredibly passionate fan of the team, this is laughable. It’s hard to be this bad in October. It will end, I promise. What better time than now? What better opponent than them? It’s unlikely the Twins will win the division in 2020. If they beat the Yankees in the playoffs, who cares about the division? That would make the entire up-and-down rollercoaster season worth it. Even a defeat in the ALDS would be taken lighter if the Twins could eliminate New York the round before. Beating the Yankees would be worth two series victories, arguably. It’s not an entirely terrible matchup Gary Sánchez was a massive part of the Yankees offensive attack in 2019. He’s been mostly absent in 2020. Sánchez has been worth negative 0.3 bWAR and Gerrit Cole likely won’t be throwing to him in game one. Another 30 home run hitter in 2019, breakout Gleyber Torres has just three in 126 plate appearances. It helps that the Yankees’ best hitters, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Torres, Luke Voit and Gio Urshela are all right-handed. That’s good news for Kenta Maeda, who has dominated righties for five straight years. The most impactful development of all has been the implosion of New York’s once all-world bullpen. They rank 20th in baseball with a 4.51 ERA, a group sunk by the efforts of Adam Ottavino (6.91) and Aroldis Chapman (4.15). Tommy Kahnle has been out for all but one inning after Tommy John surgery. At least so far in this shortened campaign, the Yankee bullpen hasn’t been scary at all. The case for wanting to avoid New York Disaster Imagine this: the Twins get swept by the Yankees again, extending their postseason drought to 18 games. Two games and poof, the Twins are gone, once again at the hands of their rightful owners. That would be a nightmare. For an entire offseason, we hurt and wreath in the bath of Yankee domination. We again ask ourselves: “will this ever end?” Maybe even more painfully, let’s say the Twins battle and win one of the first two games. Game three is a heart-wrencher, tight until the very end when Aaron Judge ropes a three-run homer off Taylor Rogers to send New York to the glorious (or not so) bubble in California. I’m already crying. Can we handle that again? The answer of course, is yes. But do we want to have to handle that again? Maybe we’d rather lose to someone else for a change. Their stars shine bright DJ LeMahieu was already a stud before signing with the Yankees. Now he’s a full-fledged superstar. LeMahieu had a case to win A.L. MVP in 2019, hitting .327 with 26 homers and 33 doubles in 145 games on an injury-riddled team. The 2020 Yankees are also injury-riddled (and LeMahieu hasn’t escaped unscathed) but the utility infielder has hit a nutty .373/.421/.627 with 2 fWAR in just 39 games. Luke Voit, after missing the playoff roster in 2019, leads baseball with 20 homers. A healthy Aaron Judge is a menace on both sides of the ball. Giancarlo Stanton has a 195 wRC+ in 16 games. That’s, uh, really high. Gerrit Cole is also a major puzzle. The $324 million man has a 0.90 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 20 September innings. Outside of (maybe) Shane Bieber, there’s no worse matchup for any team than Cole in the A.L. He’ll be dialed in and ready to rock in game one. The beauty of baseball, and why so many people hate the new format, is that anyone can beat anyone on any given day. Cole’s start guarantees nothing. Also, the Twins could just go win the next two if he dominates in game one. What do you think? Do you want to face the Yankees in round one? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins will host Cleveland for a pivotal three-game series this weekend at Target Field. Friday’s game specifically could have a big impact on the A.L. MVP race.Starting pitchers have had a hard time winning MVP; only 25 have won the award since 1931. It sure feels like No. 26 will be crowned in 2020. Cleveland starter Shane Bieber is on his way to the triple crown, leading the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts. He’s been untouchable, posting an insane 1.25 ERA and 94 strikeouts in his first 57 ⅔ innings. The Cy Young award is all but locked up for the Beebs, but is the MVP? This shortened season has seen more than a handful of players thrive. The White Sox have a legitimate candidate in 2019 breakout Tim Anderson, who ranks fourth in the A.L. in fWAR (1.9). Anderson’s teammate José Abreu is lighting it up too, hitting .311/.355/.599 with 13 homers in 43 games. Anthony Rendon, after missing the start of the year, has emerged with a league-leading 2.3 fWAR. Oh, and don’t forget about Mike Trout, who finds himself near but not on top of most statistical categories with a few weeks to go. I wouldn’t put a world-beating final stretch past him. But… Nelson Cruz trumps all offensive foes. The 40-year-old Cruz leads MLB in wOBA (.459), wRC+ (193), and OPS (1.117). He’s produced 19.9 fWAR offensively, the most in the A.L. Cruz is hitting a nutty .343/.432/.685 with 15 home runs, tied with Mike Trout and Fernando Tatís Jr. for the most in baseball. Tom Verducci recently told Pat Reusse that “everything seems to be about WAR now with a majority of the [MVP] voters, and with a DH getting zero help from defense with WAR … I don’t know how it’s going to happen.” Cruz’s 2.2 fWAR ranks second behind only Rendon, who is hitting at a 30% lesser clip by wRC+. Cruz also ranks third in bWAR (1.9) behind Abreu and rookie Luis Robert. It’s true that even with how amazing Cruz has been in 2020, a primary DH has never won MVP. This isn’t your typical great season from a DH, though. This just might be the year where it could make sense. Nelson Cruz is hitting better than any DH in baseball history. Yes, it’s only been 45 games. Simple sample size rules will tell us we can’t compare him to 162-game season players. That’s fair. Let’s look at the best DH starts to a season, sorted by OPS after 45 team games, as many as the Twins have played. Somehow, 2020 Nelly has been more productive than 2019 Nelly at this point. With only 15 games to go, it isn’t crazy to think Cruz’s numbers won’t totally free fall from their towering heights. 75% of his stats are locked in. He’s in winning position with the all-mighty Bieber standing his way. The two will face off Friday night. Who will make their statement? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

As we approach the postseason, it’s important to know which pitches (and from whom) we may see in the biggest spots. Who has the five best pitches on the team?5. José Berríos’ curveball JB has been great over his last three starts. Opponents are hitting .175/.268/.254 during his last 17 ⅔ innings pitched. His curveball command has been a massive factor in that. It showed Wednesday against the White Sox. 2019 breakout Yoán Moncada opened Berríos’ 2020 campaign by blasting a three-run homer in Chicago. On Wednesday, though, Berríos battled Moncada into a strikeout, burning him with a nasty curveball in a full count. Opponents are hitting .125 against his breaker this year 4. Matt Wisler’s slider Ew. This pitch is disgusting. Wisler joined the Twins as a waiver wire pickup and made them look brilliant for bringing him in. He’s tied with Max Kepler and Randy Dobnak for the fourth most bWAR (0.7) on the club. Wisler came into the ninth inning to face Eloy Jiménez, Luis Robert and Nomar Mazara with a 3-2 lead in Tuesday’s win. Ehire Adrianza helped with a great play at third, but Wisler diced up Robert with sliders away and struck out both he and Mazara to break the six game losing streak. Wisler is throwing his slider over *81%* of the time, generating a 40% whiff rate and .125 opponent batting average. ‘ 3. Tyler Duffey’s curveball The Doof has been one of the best relievers in baseball for over a calendar year. Duffey was excellent in 10 starts in 2015; he posted a 3.10 ERA in 58 innings with 53 strikeouts. In his next 229 innings, his ERA ballooned to 6.05. He seemingly hit rock bottom in 2019 when he started the season at Triple-A with his career hanging in the balance. Duffey then reverted to a mostly strict fastball-slider/curve combo to get outs. It worked wonderfully. In 2020, he’s thrown more of a 12-6 curve nearly 60% of the time. Opponents are hitting .103 with a 48.3% whiff rate against the pitch. Duffey has become a weapon. 2. Kenta Maeda’s slider Maeda is off to a great start in a Twins uniform. He’s produced more bWAR (1.3) in 42 ⅔ innings this year than he did in 153 ⅔ innings last year (1.2). A few changes in pitch mix, specifically more reliance on his slider, and less on his fastball, has propelled him to sparkly heights. Maeda generated a 40.7% whiff rate on his slider in 2019, holding opponents to a .158 average. 1. Sergio Romo’s slider Sergio has carved out a terrific career, one with three World Series titles, with his insanely efficient slider. Since his debut in 2008, Romo has faced 1,623 right-handed hitters. They’ve hit .196/.240/.336 off him. Among pitchers who’ve faced 1,500 righties or more during that span, Sergio ranks fourth in opponent OPS. The reason? The slider. Romo throws a mid 80s fastball with little life, but his slider is so effective that his lack of velocity hasn’t mattered for over a decade. Romo has thrown his slider more than ever in 2020. He’s showing the pitch 70% of the time and 78% of the time versus righties. Opponents are hitting .133 with a .220 wOBA against it. When righties Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres find the plate in October, I want Sergio and his slider on the mound in the late innings. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

There are 28 games remaining. The Twins have a 1/2 game lead over both Cleveland and Chicago. Here’s how I see the rest of the season panning out:The Twins need their third baseman back. Josh Donaldson played and didn’t hit much in seven games, but he brings more than you think to the table. Donaldson is playing in live intrasquad games in St.Paul (and hitting homers). The Twins need Byron Buxton back, too. They just aren’t as good without him. Despite his struggles, Mitch Garver is an asset. His absence takes another dynamic from the team. Cody Stashak, who struck out the side in Milwaukee in his last outing before hitting the IL with lower back inflammation, is on the mend. Donaldson, Buxton, Michael Pineda, and Stashak could all return August 31 when the Twins come home from the 10-game roadtrip. Garver’s intercostal strain is still healing, so he won’t be back when eligible. The Twins should be near full strength for the home stretch. Here’s what I think of the remaining schedule: The Tigers have played decent baseball in 2020. The Tigers are still a very bad baseball team. The Twins went 14-5 against Detroit last year with a +43 run differential. Predicting an 8-2 record this year is admittedly my most ambitious prediction, but would you be surprised? I wouldn’t. The White Sox look legit through 31 games. The offense is firing on all cylinders and their pitching staff has been a surprise plus. The Twins will battle the South Siders and I ultimately predict a 6-4 season series, with the Twins going 4-3 in the remaining games. Cleveland struck back at home this week to nudge their record to 3-4 against Minnesota. The Twins have been excellent at Target Field, playing to a 12-3 record, the best in baseball. Their last three games against Cleveland will be there. I predict a series win. The Twins embarrassed the Cardinals in a two-game sweep in late July. They’ll play the Cards in a double header at Busch Stadium September 8th. A split is the most likely scenario. The Cubs surprised out of the gate but have since faltered. This will be a fun series and I see Chicago just edging out the Twins for a series win. The Reds were supposed to be electric this summer. They haven’t been. They are 11-17. The Twins could still see Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray. I think they’ll take two of three, but going 3-3 against Cincy and Chicago combined should be the goal. Record prediction of remaining games: 18-10 Final record: 38-22 Place: 1st What do you think? What will be the Twins’ final record? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Josh Donaldson has missed 19 straight games with a calf strain, Miguel Sanó started slow with Mitch Garver, who is now out with an intercostal strain. As a result, the Twins have labored in an area they projected to dominate in.The Twins hit a historic .285/.351/.521 versus left-handed pitching in 2019. Their .872 OPS against southpaws was the third highest in Major League history. C.J. Cron hit a ridiculous .326/.385/.636 with 11 homers against lefties. Jonathan Schoop hit .277/.354/.563 with 14 extra-base hits. The Twins replaced those two with one of the best in the game. Since 2013, Donaldson has the fourth highest OPS against lefties, behind only Paul Goldschmidt, Nelson Cruz and Nolan Arenado. So yes, the Twins have two of the four most potent hitters in baseball against left-handers. As a team, the Twins have completely flopped against lefties in 2020. They’re hitting .235 with a .665 OPS, good for 21st in baseball. Mitch Garver and Miguel Sanó are key reasons for that. The duo crushed lefties in 2019 and have done virtually nothing in the same matchups this year. Donaldson's absence hinders them equally. Without Donaldson, Polanco is mostly hitting second against lefties. That's not ideal. Polanco is among the best left-handed hitters in the game. As a lefty versus right-handed pitchers since 2019, Polanco ties for 8th in the A.L. in wRC+ (127) and 9th in wOBA (.363). As a righty against left-handed pitching, though, Polanco’s wRC+ drops to 89 and his wOBA plummets to .307. That is a long way from Donaldson’s career 157 wRC+ and .401 wOBA versus lefties. There is also something to be said of pitchers seeing Donaldson’s name in the lineup and shuddering. Batting Donaldson second and Cruz third is borderline unfair, especially for a lefty. The entire mindset is changed when it’s instead Polanco leading into Cruz. The dynamic shifts as pitchers know of Polanco’s splits. Another reason for the Twins bashing left-handers in 2019 was Max Kepler’s incredible turnaround. Kepler entered 2019 hitting .202 with a measly .605 OPS against lefties. He adjusted to hit an outstanding .293/.356/.524 in those spots last year. So far in 2020, Kepler has regressed to his career mean, going 2-for-22 versus lefties. It’s still an incredibly small sample, to be fair. Donaldson was struggling to produce in his 27 plate appearances before hitting the IL. For one, it’s 27 plate appearances after a shortened camp. For another, Donaldson was hitting the ball hard. His average exit velocity sits at 92.7 mph, almost the exact same as 2019 when he hit 37 home runs and 33 doubles. His hard-hit rate was 50%, 0.5% below his rate last year, which ranked in the top 2% in the league. His chase rate was slightly elevated but still well below MLB average. All signs pointed to a breakout. The Twins’ offense in 2019 was electric and they returned almost every key piece. Even with that, they expected Donaldson to be another massive weapon and losing that production was a blow that we can’t overlook. The Bringer of Rain will be back soon enough and my money is on him raking - against righties and lefties - as soon as he does. Sanó is 6 for his last 15 with five doubles. Miggy getting right would be huge too amid a myriad of injuries. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

We’re nearly 33% of the way through this wild 2020 season. There have been disappointments, pleasant surprises and everything in between. Who are the five Twins most likely to win team MVP at this point in the season?*THESE CALCULATIONS FOR WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT (WAR) ARE FROM BASEBALL REFERENCE* 5. Nelson Cruz King Nelly got off to a blazing start. He went 7-for-13 with three homers and two doubles during the opening series in Chicago. He hit .190 with a .499 OPS in the following six games before notching six hits in nine at-bats at home against Pittsburgh. Cruz has struggled since then but is still hitting .329/.405/.543 on the season. He’s a fine bet to win the award again in 2020. 4. Randy Dobnak The Dobber has a 0.90 ERA in 20 innings pitched. That’s the lowest ERA among all pitchers who’ve thrown as many innings. Dobnak is producing a 66.7% groundball rate. His one-seam sinker looks deadlier than ever and opponents are hitting just .077 against his slider. Dobnak leads all Twins pitchers in WAR and ranks second on the whole team behind one explosive centerfielder. 3. Eddie Rosario The single most amazing thing about Rosario’s season thus far is his *insane* walk rate. Rosario is walking in 10.7% of his plate appearances, more than double his career rate of 4.6%. On top of that, he’s hit six home runs, the most on the team. Rosario is 6-for-14 with two doubles and a homer with runners in scoring position, including a grand slam. Edisito’s new formula, drawing walks while still punishing mistakes, has worked to a T through 18 games. 2. Kenta Maeda Maeda’s first four starts as a Twin were superb. He holds a 2.66 ERA in 23 ⅔ innings. He would’ve earned his fourth straight win if not for a bullpen implosion in Pittsburgh. Maeda has produced 0.5 WAR after producing 1.2 total WAR in 153 ⅔ innings for the Dodgers in 2019. Maeda would be on pace for over 3 WAR in a 162 game season. Only 38 pitchers produced 3 or more WAR in 2019. The preseason notion that Maeda could be the Twins’ best starter this year looks quite legitimate. 1. Byron Buxton We all knew the heights the Twins could reach more or less hinged on Buxton’s availability. He’s healthy enough to play and he’s been outstanding. Buxton is hitting .298/.306/.638 (!) through 15 games. He’s produced 1.1 WAR, the third most in the American League behind only Ramon Laureano and Aaron Judge. In his last eight games, Buxton is slugging .966 and ranks sixth in the A.L. with a .638 slugging % on the season (min. 45 PA). Buxton should be officially placed on not only the Twins, but the A.L. MVP watchlist. Honorable mention: Marwin González Marwin has been fantastic both offensively and defensively. Josh Donaldson, the Twins’ best all-around player, remains out with a calf injury. Marwin has filled in for Donaldson more than admirably. He’s hitting .304/.365/.429 in 63 plate appearances. Donaldson’s eventual return will take playing time from Marwin, ultimately diminishing his chances of winning team MVP. His exclusion from this list has nothing to do with production. He’s been outstanding. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Jake Odorizzi lasted just three innings in his 2020 season debut. After he exited the game the Royals jumped all over the bullpen, scoring six runs in the fourth inning. The Twins’ lineup scored more than five runs for just the second time in the past 11 games, but the damage had already been done.Box Score Odorizzi: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K Home Runs: Cruz (4), Buxton (3), Kepler (5) Bottom 3 WPA: Stashak -.279, Thorpe -.275, Adrianza -.209 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: Winchart.png While much of the Twins’ lineup has scuffled, Byron Buxton is white hot. He gave the Twins a two-run lead with a three run homer in the fourth inning, his third dinger in as many days. In his next at-bat, Buxton laced a single to left and drove in another run. Marwin González has filled in more than admirably in Josh Donaldson’s absence. Marwin singled in his first two at-bats Saturday and reached in all four of his plate appearances. Marwin was already hitting .297/.381/.459 before another fantastic game. Nelson Cruz hit a 437-foot home run to center off Duffy in the fourth, his fourth dong of the season. The Twins scored enough runs to win. The problems arose on the mound. Jake Odorizzi made his season debut and understandably wasn’t sharp. He threw 71 pitches in only three innings of work. Odorizzi’s command was spotty at best but he allowed only two runs. Lewis Thorpe entered with a 4-2 lead and lasted only the three batter minimum. Cody Stashak was called next and made multiple mistakes. Jorge Soler and Salvador Pérez made him pay with booming, back-to-back home runs. Soler homered twice in the first four innings. Jorge Alcala, whom the Twins received along with Gilberto Celestino in the Ryan Pressly trade, was electric in two innings of relief. He fired upper 90s heat and buckled the Royals with nasty offspeed action. Alcala struck out four, walked none, and didn’t allow a hit. Watch out for this flamethrower. The Twins will try to salvage one Sunday with José Berríos on the mound against rookie right-hander Brady Singer. Singer throws a mid 90s fastball, a low 80s slider, and an upper 80s changeup. MLB Pipeline ranked Singer as the No.2 prospect - and best pitcher - in the Royals’ system. The Twins have yet to use Sergio Romo, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey or Taylor Rogers this weekend. The bullets are in the bullpen gun for Sunday and for next week’s series in Milwaukee. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Bullpen.png Postgame Pint After the last out, Twins Daily's community and writers dissected Jake Odorizzi's return, the bullpen' worst game of the season and Buxton's surge. Download The Postgame Pint Podcast You can also listen to the Postgame Pint and never miss another one. Just head over to our iTunes page and subscribe. Every morning you'll have a new episode waiting for you. Or listen wherever you download your favorite podcasts. Click here to view the article

The Twins won their sixth straight game Wednesday and now lead the American League at 10-2. Randy Dobnak pitched six scoreless innings, gave up only three hits, and walked none. The Twins are 3-0 versus the Pirates and have a chance to sweep the season series Thursday with Kenta Maeda on the hill.Last Night's Game Recap MIN 5, PIT 2: Randy Dobnak Delivers 6 Scoreless, Max Kepler Provides Key Insurance Homer One Twins pitcher who induces weak contact relays into another for Thursday’s start. Kenta Maeda has begun 2020 in excellent fashion. His slider has continued to stymie right-handed hitters. Righties are hitting just .143 with a .174 wOBA against 24 Maeda frisbees. There quite literally wasn’t a better pitcher than Maeda against righties in 2019: Batting average against RHB (min. 300 faced): 1. Kenta Maeda .158 2. Yu Darvish .181 3. Justin Verlander / Jack Flaherty .182 Maeda’s changeup is a massive key to tightening up his platoon splits. So far in 2020, his changeup has been effective. Lefties swung and missed at nearly 32% of Maeda’s changeups during his first two starts. Pittsburgh’s lineup presents more than a few challenges for the former Dodger. Josh Bell, a switch-hitter, posted a 1.002 OPS against righties in 2019. Bryan Reynolds, another switch-hitter, hit .334 with a .931 OPS from the left side. Kevin Newman hit .316 with an .824 OPS. Maeda’s changeup will be tested Thursday. The Twins’ offense entered Wednesday’s game hitting a measly .237/.317/.410 (.727). Trevor Williams, who posted a 5.38 ERA in 2019, held them to just one run in seven innings. It isn’t quite fair to expect much offense from any team right now. The league had a cumulative .708 OPS heading into Wednesday. The Bomba Squad will find their groove. Thursday’s matchup may provide that opportunity. Right-hander JT Brubaker has the nod for the Pirates. Brubaker has thrown a total of five major-league innings in his career, all during this season. He’s appeared twice in relief and allowed no runs. Brubaker has seen 11 of his pitches put into play in 2020. Four of them were hit over 100 mph. This upper-decker fastball mistake to Paul Goldschmidt should have the Twins licking their chops: Download attachment: Screenshot 2020-08-06 at 6.51.04 AM.png Brubaker isn’t stretched out to throw many pitches and the Twins should be striving to beat him out of the game quickly. The Pirates’ bullpen allowed a Max Kepler three-run shot after entering Wednesday with a bottom-8 4.91 ERA. They struggle to consistently throw strikes and the Twins have punished them for it since Monday. Lineup Around the AL Central CLE 2, CIN 0 CHC 6, KCR 1 MIL 1, CHW 0 STL at DET Postponed 1. MIN 10-2 (+30 run differential) 2. CHW 7-5 (+7) 3. CLE 7-6 (+4) 4. DET 5-5 (-11) 5. KCR 3-10 (-22) See Also Will Good Teams Play Top Prospects? The Unexpected Lyft In Randy Dobnak’s Game Will Luis Arraez Return to His 2019 Form? Mechanical Adjustments Make for Wicked Matt Wisler Click here to view the article

The Twins took advantage of poor Pirates defense and a wild bullpen to win 5-4 in walk-off fashion Monday. José Berríos will battle Joe Musgrove Tuesday as Minnesota looks for yet another series victory.Last Night's Game Recap Twins 5, Pirates 4: Nelson Cruz Delivers a Walk-Off Hit to Cap Comeback Today Twins vs. Pirates, 1:10 pm CT Oh no, Joe Joe Musgrove was part of the package that sent Gerrit Cole to Houston before the 2018 season. Cole has since posted a dazzling 2.69 ERA in over 424 innings of Cy Young ball. Musgrove, though, has mostly sputtered. He has an ERA+ of 96 (4% below league average) since joining the Pirates. It starts and ends with his fastball. For the Twins, that’s good news. Musgrove’s four-seamer, averaging 92.7 MPH in 2019, was hit hard. Opponents produced a .389 wOBA and slugged .536 against it. It isn’t that Musgrove doesn’t have good stuff (his slider and changeup are actually quite good), it's that he can’t sequence it effectively by throwing gofer ball heaters. The Twins, as we know, destroy fastballs. The Twins scored an average of 0.93 runs per 100 fastballs thrown in 2019. That led all of baseball. As was the case with Reynaldo López of the White Sox two weekends ago, humming less-than-stellar rippers at the Twins will result in crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Expect to see a lefty-heavy lineup from Baldelli against the right-hander. Musgrove allowed a .270/.314/.489 slash to left-handed batters in 2019. Against righties, that line dipped to .239/.291/.388. La Makina locked and loaded? José Berríos was on his way to a bounce-back outing on Friday against Cleveland. Unfortunately, the stage wasn’t his; it was Shane Bieber’s. Berríos’ start was ruined by an 0-2 mistake to Francisco Lindor, a center-cut heater canned into the right field seats. Berríos’ five-inning, six-strikeout appearance was completely forgotten; the Twins got Biebered and lost 2-0. Tuesday presents a prime opportunity for Berríos to pick up his first quality start and win of 2019. Although Rocco has taken a conservative approach with his starter’s leashes, the team’s hopeful ace threw 96 pitches in Friday’s start. Josh Bell and Bryan Reynolds presents an underrated challenge for Berríos, but Pittsburgh’s lineup is hardly a problem. This has the feel of a Miami-like start from last August, when Berríos went seven innings, allowed zero runs, and struck out 11 Marlins. Lineup Looking ahead, news, notes Rich Hill has been placed on the 10-day IL with shoulder soreness. Hill impressed in his first start with the Twins, curving five innings of scoreless ball. There has been no subsequent roster move yet. The Twins are hoping to get Josh Donaldson (calf) back on their three-city road trip starting Wednesday against these same Pirates at PNC Park. They’ll face Pittsburgh twice on the road before heading to Kansas City for a three game set this weekend. Jake Odorizzi may make his 2020 debut against the Royals after throwing an abbreviated session Monday. Caleb Thielbar’s contract has been selected and he will join the Twins. The left-hander last pitched in the majors in 2015, for, you guessed it, the Twins. AROUND THE AL CENTRAL CIN 3, CLE 2 CWS 6, MIL 4 CHC 2, KC 0 DET at STL Postponed 1. MIN 7-2 (+23 run differential) 2. CHW 6-4 (+7) 3. DET 5-5 (-11) 4. CLE 5-6 (E) 5. KCR 3-8 (-16) SEE ALSO Week in Review: Winning and Wondering Twins Bullpen: Ready When Needed Which 3 Twins Have Started the Strongest? Can the Twins Fix Mitch Garver? Byron Buxton Goes Deep Click here to view the article

The Twins are rolling into Saturday’s game with a 5-2 record and a +20 run differential. Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, and Miguel Sanó aren’t thriving, but plenty of Twins are impressing through the first week of 2020. Here are the top three:3.) Alex Avila Big Al is conforming to his role quickly. Jason Castro had a respectable 101 OPS+ and 13 homers in 79 games for the Twins last year. Avila looks to be another formidable backup for Garver. He is 3-for-9 with a homer and a massively important, 2-out RBI single in Wednesday’s win over St.Louis. Avila is a quiet key to the Twins in 2020. He joins Jake Cave, Ehire Adrianza and Marwin González on the best bench in baseball. Baldelli has the luxury of plugging those guys in and barely missing a beat. Avila, with his great on-base skills and occasional pop, is going to be a plus. He’s off and running. 2.) Nelson Cruz Last Sunday, Cruz became the first player in franchise history to tally 12 total bases and seven RBIs in one game. He went 7-for-13 with two doubles and three homers in the opening series. King Nelly now has 39 extra-base hits in 85 career games against the White Sox. Manager Rick Renteria called him an “animal” at the plate in 2019. Cruz has further tormented Chicago so far in 2020. Boomstick has one hit (a double) and one walk in 15 plate appearances since that record-breaking weekend. Cruz is chasing more pitches than he did in 2019 as he continues to regain his mojo at the plate. Still, his expected slugging % is .630 and in the top 9% of the league. He is a menace. 1. “The deadly T’s” (Tyler Clippard, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Trevor May) The Twins’ bullpen has been mostly tremendous thus far. “The deadly T’s” have amassed a 1.64 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 11 innings. Trevor May is averaging an electric 95.8 mph on 23 four-seamers. His lone “mistake” came on the Tommy Edman solo home run that deflected off Byron Buxton’s glove on Wednesday night. Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers look un-hittable and Tyler Clippard is stunning lefties, including Matt Carpenter, with his excellent changeup. In a complete reversal from this time last year, we can feel entirely confident when the Twins are trying to hold leads. Sergio Romo is still death on righties, Cody Stashak has a 29:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors, and Randy Dobnak is excellent in any role. Honorable mentions: Homer Bailey - 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 K in Tuesday’s win over St.Louis Rich Hill - 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 K in Wednesday’s win over St.Louis Kenta Maeda - 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 K in Sunday’s win over Chicago Jake Cave - Grand slam in Sunday’s win over Chicago Luis Arráez - 7-for-21 (.333) with a .391 on-base percentage Max Kepler - three home runs Click here to view the article