Nash Walker

This year's edition of the Winter Meetings is virtual due to the pandemic. That didn't stop movement and rumors Monday.LANCE LYNN TRADED TO WHITE SOX FOR DANE DUNNING AND AVERY WEEMS The lede was buried Monday as Jeff Passan reported late that the White Sox have traded for Rangers starter Lance Lynn. The burly right-hander has finished in the top-6 for the A.L. Cy Young in each of the past two seasons. The Rangers pulled away six years of promising right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning, who impressed in his debut with the White Sox. Dunning pitched to a 3.97 ERA, including a seven-inning masterpiece against the Twins in September. Avery Weems is reportedly the second player heading back to Texas. Weems is a 23-year-old left-hander who was drafted in the sixth round out of Arizona in 2019. This is a clear win-now move for the South Siders, inching them even closer to their goal of taking the American League Central from the Twins. OTHER HEADLINES FROM MONDAY: UNIVERSAL DH NO MORE? Ken Rosenthal reported that MLB sent a memo to teams telling them to "proceed under the assumption that the DH will not be used in the National League in 2021." This impacts the Twins perhaps more than any other team as they remain in a "staring contest" with their (for now) departed DH Nelson Cruz. ANGELS TRADE FOR SHUTDOWN CLOSER The Angels, in need of arms of any type, traded for Reds closer Raisel Iglesias Monday. Iglesias ranks 16th in fWAR among qualified relievers since 2016. The flame throwing right-hander carries a $9.125 million price tag for 2021 in his final year before free agency. In return, the Reds received right-hander Noé Ramirez and a PTBNL or cash. Ramirez is a 30-year-old reliever in his first of three years in arbitration. The California-born righty owns a career 4.18 ERA in 211 innings. He's set to make an estimated $1.1 million next season. GEORGE SPRINGER UNLIKELY TO FOLLOW LYNN TO SOUTH SIDE After early speculation that the White Sox could pursue top free agent George Springer to replace the non-tendered Nomar Mazara in right field, Jeff Passan cooled those jets Monday. Passan noted in his article that the White Sox are "extraordinarily unlikely" to pay Springer a center field amount of money to play right field. The Sox have their center fielder of the future in rookie Gold Glove winner Luis Robert. TREVOR BAUER TO METS PICKING UP STEAM? Trevor Bauer, the top free agent pitcher this winter, isn't rushing to choose his next destination. Still, his agent told Deesha Thoshar of the New York Daily News that the Mets are a desirable location for her client: “New York is... Well, he likes where the organization is going,” Luba said, “It can definitely be a landing spot.” SONNY GRAY DRAWING EXPECTED INTEREST Jon Heyman reported Monday that "several teams" are showing interest in the Reds right-hander. This comes days after Joel Sherman wrote that Cincinnati is "working hard" to trade Gray, who posted a stellar 3.07 ERA and 3.33 FIP in his first two seasons with the Reds. INTERNATIONAL INTRIGUE Tomoyuki Sugano, a starting pitcher from Japan's NPB, and Ha-Seong Kim, a shortstop from South Korea's KBO, were both officially posted today (as reported by Jon Morosi here and here). The Minnesota Twins have needs in their rotation and infield, might they be suitors for either of these international stars? Twins Daily's Tom Froemming shared some highlights and thoughts about both players in the video below. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

After a projected team record-setting $142 million payroll in 2020, the Twins are expected to cut back spending with the rest of the industry… but what if they don’t?It’s been an assumption that with losses related to the pandemic in 2020, the Twins would almost certainly reduce their payroll 10 to 15%. That may not be the case. What if they jump the market and make serious splashes outside of the top tier? Here’s my wish list: 1. Re-sign Nelson Cruz for 1-year, $17 million w/ a 2022 team option, $15M The Twins’ desire to keep Cruz is well-known. In a scenario where their payroll is around $145 million, slightly more than it was before the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, keeping Cruz at a premium is a much less painful task. With more spending room for next season, the Twins can load Cruz on a one year deal and avoid a multi-year commitment to the 40-year-old heartbeat of the team. 2. Re-sign Jake Odorizzi for 3-years, $39 million The Twins also have interest in bringing back Odorizzi, per MLB Trade Rumors. This move makes too much sense. Odorizzi can slot right in as the Twins’ fourth (or third) starter, a perfect spot. What makes Odorizzi more desirable is the stunning lack of top-tier options on the free-agent market after Trevor Bauer, whom the Twins aren’t expected to pursue.Odorizzi has produced 6.9 fWAR since 2018, ranking 33rd among starters and one spot behind Kenta Maeda and Lucas Giolito. 3. Sign LHP James Paxton for 2-years, $22 million Paxton’s injury history is riddled, but from 2016 to 2019, he still averaged 142 innings per season. That’s far from ideal and his 2020 was disastrous, reducing his price and raising questions all over the board. His upside remains dreamable. Among starters who’ve pitched at least 750 innings since Paxton’s debut in 2013, he ranks 12th in FIP (3.31), 13th in strikeout rate (26.5%), 19th in opponent OPS (.676), and 27th in ERA (3.58). He’s a top-of-the-rotation arm at full strength. Then why so cheap? Well, who knows if you’ll ever get him at full strength. That’s a risk the Twins should be willing to take at this point in their contention window. 4. Sign RHPs Joakim Soria and Tyler Clippard for $8 million combined Clippard and his changeup were a welcomed addition to the 2020 Twins. He struck out 26 in 26 innings with a 2.77 ERA. Of note, Clippard has never been placed on the injured list in his storied 14 season career. Soria is another veteran relief addition who could solidfy the back of the bullpen. With adjustments he made in Oakland, Soria unlocked a new gear. Clippard on a slight raise at $3 million and Soria at $5 million would quickly make up for some of the loss provided by Trevor May, Sergio Romo, and Matt Wisler. 5. Sign SS Marcus Semien for 1-year, $15 million This would be where the Twins pounce this market. Guys like Semien will likely take pillow contracts as teams are cutting payroll. Pushing Jorge Polanco into the utility role fills another vacancy, and the Twins would add the fourth most valuable shortstop in baseball over the last three seasons. 2021 26-MAN ROSTER AND PAYROLL: 3B Josh Donaldson - $21.75 million DH Nelson Cruz - $17 million SS Marcus Semien - $15 million 1B/DH Miguel Sanó - $12.33 million OF Max Kepler - $6.5 million OF Byron Buxton - $5.125 million SS Jorge Polanco - $4.33 million C Mitch Garver - $1.875 million C Ryan Jeffers - $575,000 2B Luis Arraez - $575,000 OF Jake Cave - $575,000 UTIL Travis Blankenhorn - $575,000 SP Jake Odorizzi - $13 million SP James Paxton - $11 million SP Michael Pineda - $10 million SP José Berríos - $6.1 million SP Kenta Maeda - $3.125 million (w/ incentives) SP Randy Dobnak - $575,000 RP Taylor Rogers - $6 million RP Joakim Soria - $5 million RP Tyler Clippard - $3 million RP Tyler Duffey - $2.2 million RP Caleb Thielbar - $700,000 RP Jorge Alcalá - $575,000 RP Cody Stashak - $575,000 RP Ian Gibaut - $575,000 *Projected above moves 2021 26-MAN ROSTER PAYROLL - $148.6 MILLION 2020 26-MAN ROSTER PAYROLL - $142 MILLION What do you think? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The 2020 Twins played at a 97-win pace and won their second straight division title. Still, the offense was nothing short of a disappointment, driven by three rules all year.1. Score early and don’t score again In innings one through four, the Twins hit a strong .261/.329/.481 with a 118 wRC+, the second highest in the American League. The Twins also posted an A.L. leading .934 OPS with runners in scoring position over their first four innings. The team’s OPS dropped a staggering 252 points in innings five through nine with the fourth lowest wRC+ in the A.L. (85). The Twins scored nearly 45% of their runs in the first three innings during the 2020 campaign. Part of this is the growing number of fire-breathing relievers in baseball. More guys than ever are throwing 100 with devastating sliders. Stringing hits together and creating rallies in the late innings has become nearly impossible. The Twins aren’t exempt from that reality. Still, compared to the rest of the league, the Twins were great early and terrible late. 2. Refuse to hit left-handed pitching After posting the highest single-season OPS against lefties since the 1998 Rangers, the Twins fell flat in 2020. Losing C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop, two lefty mashers, certainly hurt. The Twins certainly expected better health from Josh Donaldson, who ranks fourth in OPS (.972) against LHP since 2013 (min. 1,000 PA). Mitch Garver still crushed the platoon despite his overall ineffectiveness. Miguel Sanó was inconsistent, Jorge Polanco is a much better left-handed hitter, and Max Kepler struggled mightily after mashing lefties in 2019. This all added up to a severe disadvantage. Nelson Cruz was an exception to just about every Twins offensive trend in 2020. He was consistently dominant and crushed lefties. Cruz slugged .907 with a 283 wRC+ against southpaws, ranking second to only Tim Anderson (300). Pretty scary to think about where the bats would’ve been if Cruz wasn’t a Twin, isn’t it? 3. Dial back the aggression that worked so well in 2019 There were a few keys to the Twins’ 2019 offensive breakout: Hit the ball in the airBe uber aggressiveCrush fastballsThe Twins swung at just under 71% of pitches in the zone in 2019, ranking fourth in baseball. In 2020, that number dropped to 67.6%, good for 16th in baseball. Even worse, they barely improved at chasing pitches. Ultimately they swung less at strikes and about the same at balls. They swung and missed at almost an identical rate but made soft contact much more. The team ranked 28th in soft contact rate in 2019 (15.7%) and fourth in 2020 (18%). They dropped from second to 20th in hard contact rate (-8.7%). The team still hit the ball in the air at a high rate but saw less of them leave the park. They ranked 5th in home run-per-flyball in 2019 (17.7%) and tied for 9th in 2020 (16.6%). Perhaps most alarming, they stopped crushing fastballs. A Fangraphs metric that measures pitch value (wFB/C) says the Twins hit fastballs better than any team in 2019 (0.93). In 2020, 16 other teams hit fastballs better than the Twins (0.02). These offensive trends all contributed to a sharp decline in production in 2020. Recognizing these is vital to figuring out how to bounce back in 2021. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

T-LACK

The Twins have more wins than any other team in the American League over the last two seasons. They have no playoff wins to show for it. How can they get better via the trade market? Here are three propositions.TRADE NO. 1: MINNESOTA RECEIVES: SS TREVOR STORY COLORADO RECEIVES: MLB Pipeline No. 81, Twins No. 4 prospect RHP JORDAN BALAZOVIC Why the Twins would accept: The Twins have to ask themselves whether Jorge Polanco would be better suited in a utility role. Royce Lewis is seemingly on his way, but Polanco’s ankle and 2020 production cast doubt over the position for 2021. Enter Trevor Story and his one year, $18.5 million contract. Story has the 10th most fWAR in baseball since 2018. He’s hit an outstanding .292/.355/.554 over that span. Before you point to the Coors Field factor, consider that Story’s OPS+, a ballpark adjusted stat, says he is a 22% above league average hitter. Story has also saved 20 runs over the last three seasons, the seventh most among shortstops. The Twins could add one of the best players in the game with no long-term commitment while also protecting arguably their top pitching prospect in Jhoan Duran. Story’s $18.5 million salary in this market will seem hefty to a lot of teams. The Twins can take advantage. Why the Rockies would accept: There is no team that has more trouble signing, developing and producing starting pitching than the Colorado Rockies. Balazovic would instantly become their top pitching prospect and a key to the future. They aren’t competing anytime soon and will almost assuredly lose Story to free agency after the season. They would be dumb not to move him. The question is whether just Balazovic will be enough. Perhaps the Twins would throw in one more piece to encourage them, but the up-and-coming Canadian right-hander should be really enticing. TRADE NO. 2: MINNESOTA RECEIVES: RHP BRANDON WOODRUFF, LHP JOSH HADER MILWAUKEE RECEIVES: MLB Pipeline No. 77, Twins No. 3 prospect OF TREVOR LARNACH, Twins No. 10 prospect RHP BLAYNE ENLOW, Twins No. 14 prospect OF MATT WALLNER, Twins No. 24 prospect RHP DAKOTA CHALMERS Why the Twins would accept: Brandon Woodruff has three more years of team control with a projected $3.4 million pricetag in 2021. That’s incredibly cheap for a pitcher who ties Justin Verlander with a 3.31 FIP since 2017. Woodruff averages over 96 mph on his four-seamer with an underused and underrated slider. The Twins would love to add the 6-foot-4 righty to what would be a world-class rotation. Josh Hader ranks first in strikeout rate (44.1%), strikeout-to-walk rate (34.6%) and bWAR (tie, Felipe Vázquez - 7.1) among relievers since 2017. His slider remains one of the nastiest pitches in baseball and he’s due just $5.65 million in 2021 with three years of team control remaining. He would join Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers in a devastating bullpen. The Twins have a very deep farm system, especially in outfielders. Losing Larnach and Wallner would no doubt hurt, but adding three full seasons (and one extra with Woodruff) of this tandem would be hard to turn down. Why the Brewers would accept: This side is tougher to justify. Woodruff is their ace and Hader carries the bullpen. On the other hand, Milwaukee owns the worst farm system in baseball. They would add their second best prospect in Larnach, a nearly MLB ready bat. Enlow owns a 3.36 ERA in the minors, Wallner is another young and exciting outfielder, and Chalmers throws gas. This package is filled with both certainty and upside. The Brewers could spark an inevitable rebuild by loading their brutal system. TRADE NO. 3: MINNESOTA RECEIVES: 2B/SS/CF KETEL MARTE ARIZONA RECEIVES: Twins No. 7 prospect SS KEONI CAVACO, Twins No. 11 prospect RHP MATT CANTERINO, Twins No. 26 prospect OF EMMANUEL RODRÍGUEZ Why the Twins would accept: The 27-year-old Marte finished fourth for N.L. MVP in 2019 after hitting a nutty .329/.389/.592 (150 wRC+) with 32 home runs. He took a massive step back in 2020, but was it really? If you take out his 2019 campaign, Marte has hit .266/.324/.391 over 447 games. This was almost exactly on par with his .287/.323/.409 line in 2020. His bat fits the mold of a really solid utility player. Marte’s value lies in his ability to play shortstop, second, center and an occasional third base. He’s a plus-20 runs defender at second in his career, a plus-4 runs defender at short, and a plus-5 defender in center. He also crushes left-handed pitching, owning a .294/.344/.495 (121 wRC+) slash against southpaws. The Twins could use that. Marte’s contract is also incredibly favorable: 2021: $6.4 million guaranteed 2022: $8.4 million guaranteed 2023: $11 million club option ($1 million buyout) 2024: $13 million club option ($1.5 million buyout) If the Twins believe Marte’s 2019 explosion is even close to re-attainable, this could be an absolute steal. Why the Diamondbacks would accept: Many picked the D-Backs as their surprise success in 2020. It couldn’t have gone worse. They finished dead last in the N.L. West and watched the young Padres establish themselves while the Dodgers won the World Series. Arizona isn’t close to October. They do have a very strong farm system and could add to it with two high-upside teenagers in Cavaco and Rodríguez. Canterino is a polished, projectable middle-to-back of the rotation starter as well. They already traded Starling Marte and Archie Bradley. Why not Ketel too for this return? What do you think of these deals? Which would you accept as Derek Falvey and Thad Levine? Which would you decline? Who says no? Why? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins, especially after declining Sergio Romo’s $5 million club option, will need to fill three or four spots in the bullpen. Is this journeyman reliever a worthwhile signing?Joakim Soria was a dominant closer for the Royals during the first five years of his career. He posted a 2.40 ERA and 2.90 FIP over 315 ⅓ innings for Kansas City. Soria then pitched for six different teams over the next eight seasons, including another two year stint with the Royals. His 3.12 FIP ranked 16th among 73 relievers who threw at least 300 innings in that span. Soria signed a healthy two-year, $15 million contract with the Athletics before the 2019 campaign. He pitched to a 3.94 ERA and 3.46 FIP in 91 ⅓ innings for Oakland. These numbers don’t jump off the page, but his subtle adjustments in 2020 show some hidden upside for the 36-year-old righty. In a move that screams “Minnesota Twins,” Soria upped his slider usage by 70%, similar to the move Homer Bailey made in Oakland with his splitter. Opponents had an expected .234/.254 (wOBA)/.307 line against Soria’s frisbee during the shortened season, whiffing at over a 30% rate. Even with this death-on-righties slider, lefties hit just .130 with a .361 OPS off Soria. His changeup was incredibly effective, but his fastball still has plenty of juice, too. Soria averaged 92.4 mph with his heater and it played up due to the offspeed efficiency. Soria was simply a Statcast darling in 2020. He ranked in the 94th percentile in barrel rate, the 92nd percentile in expected wOBA and expected ERA, and the 85th percentile in expected slugging percentage. He still threw his fastball over 65% of the time, which suggests there’s remaining room to tweak the pitch mix and pull out more value. Soria has the repertoire and profile that reminds one of Matt Wisler from last offseason, albeit with much more success and a higher price tag. How high that price tag will be, though, is the main question. Cleveland just waived Brad Hand, the Twins wouldn’t pay Romo $5 million, and the Braves declined the $3.5 million option on Darren O’Day, a 38-year-old righty who posted a sterling 1.10 ERA in 2020. Soria turns 37 next May and falls into the category of a solid but not great reliever. He does seem like an ideal candidate for the Twins to tweak on a lower-term deal. Worst case scenario is he ends up being the same guy he’s been for the last five years, a 3.20 FIP, 10.2 strikeouts-per-nine middle-to-late leverage righty. That has immense value in itself. What do you think? Should the Twins sign Joakim Soria? Who else would you want to see them sign for the bullpen? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Darius, I appreciate the comment. Polanco was a plus defender (+1 DRS) in 2016 at third base. If you have the arm (or most of the arm) for short, you have the arm for third. If you think Ehire Adrianza is anywhere near the hitter that Polanco is (even when hurt), I can’t help you there. Have a great weekend!

The Twins got creative last winter by signing Josh Donaldson and moving Miguel Sanó to first base. There is another opportunity for innovation this offseason at the shortstop position.It’s very difficult to evaluate and project Jorge Polanco. He hit a solid but not spectacular .272/.329/.420 in 288 games before his breakout 2019 where he exploded for 69 extra-base hits. Polanco started in the All-Star Game because of his terrific first-half production. Since the 2019 break though, Polanco has hit just .267/.325/.407 (95 wRC+) in 535 plate appearances. This line includes a disastrous September in 2020 where he had just a .625 OPS. Polanco had his second ankle surgery in as many years and told Darren Wolfson that it bothered him at the plate much more than he let on. We’re all hopeful he returns to first-half 2019 form in 2021, but his track record shows that he’s more likely to be the career .278/.335/.434 (104 wRC+) hitter than the early-2019 world beater. Those numbers, and especially his career 111 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, would be incredibly valuable in a utility role. Polanco is a switch-hitter who can presumably play third, short, and second and is slated to make only $4.33 million in 2021, about the salary of a utility infielder. Of course the other huge factor is the status of the Twins’ top prospect Royce Lewis. Reports and rumblings have indicated that Lewis isn’t quite ready to join the big league club. The Twins have also shown a propensity to hold players back until a clear role is established. Lewis isn’t there yet. The Twins could just re-sign Ehire Adrianza, who was brutal offensively in 2020, to bridge the gap to Lewis, or they could get creative. Polanco could slide into a platoon-role, primarily facing right-handed pitching while steping aside against lefties. One of the main focuses of this offseason for the Twins should be improvement against left-handers. Polanco has a career 89 wRC+ from the right side of the plate. The free agent market is flush with potential options to share time with Polanco. Marcus Semien should do well considering his outstanding 2019 season. Semien posted 8.9 bWAR in 2019, a complete outlier to the other seven years of his career. He may not demand a long-term pact and owns a career .812 OPS against lefties. Andrelton Simmons, another free agent with injury concerns, could sign a pillow deal in Minnesota and pair up with Josh Donaldson on the left side. Simmons is the best defensive shortstop in the world and has a respectable, given his defense, .730 OPS over the last four seasons. Twins killer Didi Gregorius is a free agent but makes less sense because of his left handedness. On the trade market, Javier Báez is entering his final year before free agency and will make a projected $11 million. The Cubs are eyeing a potential rebuild and will undoubtedly shop their veterans. Báez was abysmal in 2020 but has crushed lefties in his career (125 wRC+). Xander Bogaerts and Francisco Lindor will likely be available but both are unlikely to be dealt to Minnesota. Bogaerts is owed $40 million through an opt-out in 2022, which will complicate the return in trade. Lindor will probably be traded, but not to a division rival. The Twins have a unique opportunity to improve their depth by adding a legitimate starting shortstop for one to two years while the market is down. Polanco could thrive with less pressure and better matchups in the utility role, as well. What do you think about this option? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

“Over the last three seasons, Kepler’s 8.0 bWAR is again only behind Betts and Judge among right fielders. Kepler is, by all accounts, a top three-to-five player at his position. He’s hit .246/.332/.499 over the last two seasons for an OPS+ of 119, firmly above league average.” The presumption that Kepler wouldn’t bring back significant pieces baffles me.

It’s understandable that some Twins fans are asking for radical changes to be made following yet another postseason failure. Is trading Max Kepler one that carries weight?The case against Kepler signed a 5-year, $35 million extension following his solid but not spectacular 2018 season. The spectacular was fulfilled in 2019. Kepler blasted 36 home runs and 32 doubles while primarily leading off for the Twins, gearing his swing to pull the ball in the air with authority. Kepler received league MVP votes and Twins Daily voted him as the best Twin of 2019. Kepler, like his teammate and friend Byron Buxton, is an incredible athlete. He ranks third among right fielders since 2018 in defensive fWAR (8.4), trailing only Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge. Kepler has a sweet left-handed swing. It’s aesthetically pleasing to watch him belt baseballs to right field. Over the last three seasons, Kepler’s 8.0 bWAR is again only behind Betts and Judge among right fielders. Kepler is, by all accounts, a top three-to-five player at his position. He’s hit .246/.332/.499 over the last two seasons for an OPS+ of 119, firmly above league average. Kepler is set to make only $21.75 million over the next three years with a $10 million club option for 2024. He’ll turn 32 following that season. The case for For all of the reasons above, Kepler would undoubtedly bring back significant pieces in a trade. He’s a really good outfielder in his prime with a team-friendly contract and four years of team control. The Twins could get back a heap of prospects or perhaps package Kepler to swing a deal for starting pitching (not that they need it as much as they did in 2019). This front office has repeatedly stressed “sustained success.” Is trading Kepler to improve the farm system contributing to sustained success? Or is losing a really good player counterproductive? Of course, the most important factor is the dropoff for 2021. It’s true the Twins are flush with outfielders. Alex Kirilloff looks like he could man right field, Trevor Larnach is knocking at the door for another corner outfield spot, and Brent Rooker looked Major-League adept in his debut season. Jake Cave has an .807 OPS against right-handed pitching in his career, two points higher than Kepler. How much does moving Kepler hinder their ability to compete for another division title in 2021? About that platoon... Perhaps the most impressive part of Kepler’s 2019 was his adjustment against lefties. He had struggled for most of his career in those spots but rebounded to hit .293/.356/.524 against southpaws in 2019. Kepler went just 6-for-47 in those matchups in 2020. As a result, Kepler’s overall batting line regressed to .228/.321/.439. His OPS+ remained above league average at 108. A platoon player is still much less valuable than one who can start every day. Kepler’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate declined during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. As we can ask with most things this year, what does that really mean? What do you think? Should the Twins shop Max Kepler? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Nick Nelson has a future in this.

Unfortunately we’re talking about the offseason much earlier than we would’ve liked. Still, this is another critical winter for the Twins. Let’s take a look.The Nitty Gritty: payroll GUARANTEED CONTRACTS: Josh Donaldson - $21 million Miguel Sanó - $11 million Michael Pineda - $10 million Max Kepler - $6.5 million Jorge Polanco - $4.33 million Kenta Maeda - $3.125 million (with incentives) Sergio Romo - $5 million CLUB OPTION ($250K buyout) TOTAL GUARANTEED MONEY - $56 million ($61 million w/ Romo) ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE PLAYERS (PROJ. $) With the way the season and stats went, these will be hard to project. MLB and the MLBPA haven’t yet decided on how arbitration numbers will be impacted by the shortened season. Let’s just say they’ll be somewhat close to regular numbers. Eddie Rosario (3rd and final year) - proj. $10 million Taylor Rogers (3rd of four years) - proj. $6 million José Berríos (2nd of three years) - proj. $6.5 million Byron Buxton (3rd of four years) - proj. $5 million Tyler Duffey (2nd of three years) - proj. $2 million Matt Wisler (2nd of three years) - proj. $1 million Mitch Garver (1st of three years) - proj. $2.5 million PROJECTED GUARANTEED + ARB MONEY - $90 million 5 key decisions 1. Who is going to start in left field? Eddie Rosario’s future with the Twins has been in question for quite some time. It was questionable at best whether the Twins would tender him close to $10 million before the pandemic wiped out much of 2020’s revenue. It now seems doubtful that Rosario is tendered such a lump some, at least from Minnesota. Perhaps as an omen, Rosario was booted from the biggest game of the year Wednesday while top prospect Alex Kirilloff impressed in his debut both offensively and defensively in the outfield. Cutting or trading Rosario would bring the payroll to about $80 million. 2. Who is going to fill the utility role(s)? Both Marwin González and Ehire Adrianza are entering the market after down years. González looked slow and far from potent at the plate, while Adrianza struggled to barrel up anything all year. The Twins will have to fill these two spots. They need someone who can play shortstop, especially after Polanco was forced to play through an ankle injury throughout 2020. Royce Lewis probably won’t be groomed by opening day. The Twins may bring back the 31-year-old Adrianza, a known entity who is more than capable of filling in up the middle. Josh Donaldson’s first year with the Twins was cut considerably by his nagging calf. The Twins need someone who can hit and fill in at third (or first) base when needed. Given González’s struggles and rapid decline, I’d prefer they look elsewhere. Perhaps Travis Blankenhorn could fill this role? 3. Who will fill out the starting rotation? The Twins are in a much better position than they were heading into last offseason. They had only Berríos returning to the rotation, albeit with a pitching-rich free agent market. This time around, they have Berríos, Pineda and newfound ace Maeda. Randy Dobnak faded down the stretch but his still-excellent career 3.12 may earn him the fifth job. The final spot in the rotation could be filled from within as well. Jhoan Duran hasn’t pitched above Double-A but could be ready soon with electric raw stuff. Jordan Balazovic is probably further away. On the market, the Twins could make a run at the presumable NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. The acquisition of Bauer would put the Twins’ rotation near the top of the league, but at what cost? Other free agent hurlers: Marcus Stroman, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jake Odorizzi, who has expressed a desire to return to Minnesota. 4. Should they re-sign Nelson Cruz? Cruz will turn 41 next July but just put together another world-beating campaign. The heart and soul of the team hit .303 with a .992 OPS and 16 homers while playing in 53 out of 60 games. A sore knee hindered him into the playoffs but he was the only Twin to drive in a run, responsible for both during the wild card round. Cruz still hit .286/.384/.460 in September, sore knee and all. Derek Falvey indicated Thursday that the Twins are mutually interested in bringing Nelly back. According to Darren Wolfson, the Twins balked at the notion of an extension during spring training. Perhaps Cruz’s top-10 MVP finish will change their minds. There’s also the issue of saturation. Brent Rooker made his debut and looked great, hitting .316 with a .960 OPS over his first 21 plate appearances. Rooker is in the picture along with Trevor Larnach, who dazzled in spring training after winning Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2019. Even after signing Cruz, though, the Twins could run a platoon corner outfield with Rooker and Max Kepler, who looked inept against left-handed pitching in 2020. Larnach’s spot is much murkier in that scenario. 5. How will they fill out the bullpen? The Twins may lose two key members from their bullpen in Trevor May and Tyler Clippard. Rogers, Duffey, Wisler, Cody Stashak, and Jorge Alcalá will seemingly fill five of eight spots. The Twins could use more high-leverage arms, especially after Rogers continually didn’t get the job done in 2020. They could bring back May, who finished the season on an incredibly high note. He struck out 12 over 7 ⅔ scoreless innings before two perfect innings in the playoffs. His secondary stuff and command isn’t always sharp but the upper-90s fastball is extremely effective. He has high-leverage stuff. Clippard was everything the Twins had hoped he would be. A solid, consistent middle-to-high leverage reliever who shuts down lefties. Left-handed hitters had just a .479 OPS against Clippard, a guy who has spent 14 years in the majors and has never gone on the injured list. He could be back, too. Free agent targets include one of the best relievers in baseball in Liam Hendriks, who could re-join Minnesota as a new animal. The Twins could also pick up the $5 million option on Sergio Romo, or buy him out for $250K. What do you want to see the Twins do this offseason? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Yes, it happened again. The Minnesota Twins lost yet another playoff game, and in incredibly frustrating fashion. It could all be over tomorrow, as the Houston Astros are now in a position to eliminate the Twins with another victory.Box Score Maeda: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Romo -.335, Duffey -.155, Rosario -.125 Presumable A.L. Cy Young runner-up Kenta Maeda gave the Twins their first scoreless playoff start since Johan Santana did it in game one of the 2004 ALDS. Maeda struck out five over five innings, escaping a few jams but ultimately doing his job: giving the Twins a chance to win. Zack Greinke started for the Astros and struggled through the first inning. He loaded the bases with one out before Alex Bregman made a tremendous play on a swinging bunt from Miguel Sanó. The Twins didn’t score. The Twins did take advantage of a two-out walk of Max Kepler in the third inning. Nelson Cruz laced a double off the right field wall and Kepler scored, giving the Twins a 1-0 lead. Framber Valdéz, who had a 3.57 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 70 ⅔ innings for Houston this year, relieved extremely effectively for Greinke as the Twins continued their complete ineptitude against left-handed pitching. That lead would hold until Tyler Duffey surrendered three straight singles in the seventh with two outs. Taylor Rogers entered with one on and no outs in the eighth. He escaped without any damage. Sergio Romo allowed two Texas League singles to lead off the eighth, forced two flyouts and then induced weak contact from George Springer, who grounded a ball to short. Jorge Polanco made an errant throw to second, the inning continued, and Romo walked Altuve with the bases loaded. Caleb Thielbar then entered and allowed a two-run single to Michael Brantley to extend the Astros lead to 4-1. The Twins had four hits all day. They went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position. You just aren’t going to win games with those numbers. The Twins will send José Berríos to the mound Wednesday to try and avoid elimination and their 18th straight postseason loss. Postgame Pint Check out tonight’s episode of Twins Daily’s Postgame Pint live stream on or Facebook. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Bullpen.png Click here to view the article

Every postseason, there are impact heroes. That’s the beauty of an incredibly small sample following such a long campaign. One hit, one strikeout or one big play can change your fate. Here are three Twins who could make a huge impact this fall.3. Miguel Sanó Sanó’s 2020 season has been a rollercoaster, as it sometimes can be with him. He hit .140 with a .632 OPS over his first 18 games, frequently swinging through centercut fastballs and striking out at a (even for his standards) ridiculously high rate. Over his next 19 games ranging from August 17th to September 5th, Sanó hit .333/.403/.696 with 15 extra-base hits. The Twins were carried by Miggy and Nelson Cruz for nearly a month as the rest of the lineup remained injured or ineffective. Since then, though, Sanó has cooled considerably. Over his last 55 plate appearances, Miggy has just six hits (.113) and four home runs. He’s struck out 12 times for every walk. When he’s on, Sanó is one of the best sluggers in the game. He leads the A.L. in average exit velocity (95.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (57%). As the type of player who can beat the world for weeks at a time, his bat could be the difference for the Twins in October. They need him. 2. Taylor Rogers Much has been said and written about Taylor Rogers and his struggles recently. Rogers began his season with four sterling outings, allowing just one hit and striking out four. Since then, he has a 5.52 ERA and .353 OBA. Opponents are making contact more often, making hard contact more often, and hitting less ground balls against Rogers. He has struggled to put hitters away, frequently making mistakes in two strike counts. Rogers is still striking out over 11 batters per nine and has given up only two home runs all year. The underlying numbers suggest bad luck has at least a little bit to do with it. No matter, it’s hard to feel confident in the Twins’ closer right now. When he’s himself, though, there are very few better in the game. Rogers ranks second in fWAR among American League relievers since 2018 (4.5), behind only Liam Hendriks of the A’s. The narrative that Rogers has been poor since the 2019 All-Star Game is misguided. He’s been a top five reliever even over the last 13 months. For better or worse, T-Rog is an X factor. 1. José Berríos The emergence of Kenta Maeda has taken loads of pressure off Berríos, who has thrived as the team’s No. 2 starter. Berríos has a 2.14 ERA over the last month with 37 strikeouts in 33 ⅔ innings. This came following a 5.92 ERA over his first five starts of the shortened season. Berríos is slated to start game two of the Wild Card round. He’ll be tasked with either clinching the series or keeping the Twins alive. Even though he’s no longer the game one starter, the team’s fate will be somewhat in his hands. If Berríos can keep it going into October, this rotation will be hard to beat. The Twins will of course need Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Maeda, Max Kepler and others to contribute if they want the ring. The three above, however, may dictate whether their playoff run is extended beyond a round or two. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article