Cody Pirkl

It would be impossible to slot him in on that list just because he's only a rookie, but he put up .9 fWAR in 28 innings which is unsustainable but incredible. I think he's easily a 2 win pitcher if he threw an entire season's worth of innings which is great for a back end starter.

Dobnak is undeniably the Michael Pineda suspension fill in for me. His stuff is more than good enough to take the bat out of the hands of free swinging bad teams and he doesn't do a lot in the way of hurting himself. You could see what Matthew was talking about here in his start in Yankee Stadium. He lived an inch off the plate for most of a game where the Yankees seemed locked in on not swinging at anything that couldn't be hit. Dobnak was forced to throw the ball over the plate, and now his start is used by some people to say he shouldn't be trusted as a starting pitcher which I think is unfair. He should be a guy people should be excited about in 2020. Also, don't be that guy that refers to him as "the Uber driver" as an insult to his ability. That's not very nice.

I think that my argument for this is that if they have a rock solid cap of $135 million, that's pretty pathetic. The idea that they can't afford to go beyond this is absolutely ridiculous regardless of what the front office may tell you. In my opinion, there shouldn't be a salary goal below $150 million and even that would leave you money to give extensions.

I don't think we'll see the MadBum/Ryu and Donaldson signings but I think we may still see one or the other. Pitching is still the main focus at this point, but I'm very interested to see how they fill out the corner infield. Most of the first basement available are platoon guys and I'd really hope we wouldn't move Sano off third base for someone like Todd Frazier. I think maybe a more realistic idea is that they pass up MadBum and Ryu (which will cause panic) and sign something like Keuchel and Donaldson. They can still explore the trade market at this point as well as still have a few million for the bullpen. I just can't see a scenario where they push $150 million unfortunately, even though if there's ever a time to do it, it's now.

Framing is far from perfect, but Baseball Savant pegs Avila as a better framer. Castro declined a bit to the point where Garver actually rated better in 2018 by some metrics. And I 100% agree, the arm will be awesome.

Him and Castro are fairly similar on offense and his defense and on base ability look better so yes, I'd argue we got better. It's okay to enjoy these smaller moves that shore up the roster. It's a good signing.

I mean he pitched into August and had a sub 3.00 ERA in his last 12-15 starts I believe. The dog days of summer hit, Berrios was struggling, Odorizzi had a blister, and Gibson and Perez cratered. Pineda was our best pitcher for the last month or so that he pitched. Also I know I said worst case scenario, but lets be honest, the worst case scenario is not that we're going to stand pat with 3 starting pitchers. Even us negative Minnesota fans can believe there are more signings to come even if they aren't top tier pitchers.

People may not see this as a big deal but this is a fantastic signing. Avila is a similar style player to Castro but actually does a lot of things better. Castro gets a lot of credit for his defense, specifically his framing. Avila actually grades out better. He's actually in the 92nd percentile in all of baseball. That's huge not just for our young pitchers, but for the whole staff. His offensive numbers look unimpressive, but he got on base at a higher clip than Castro, which was Castro's best offensive skill. While Avila hit close to .200, his expected batting average was closer to .250. Even without tweaks, his offense could improve dramatically just as a result of better luck. This is a fantastic backup catching option and will slot in perfectly for 60-70 games next year. And it came at a price that won't affect financial flexibility in any meaningful way.

The Twins had a rotation that was in the top 1/3 of the league and that was with Gibson and Perez cratering. That actually would have been a competitive one for playoffs had Pineda not been suspended, although I know it's not the most inspiring since there isn't a true ace in there. We now have the top 3 pieces of that rotation back. I think they'll still be in on Ryu and MadBum and other lower tier guys. At this point the worst case scenario is that we have a rotation that gives us a chance to win everyday. Best case scenario is Pineda, who was our best pitcher down the stretch last year, is our number 4 or 5 and we have the arms to make some big time noise.

I think Ryu may be the better get than Bumgarner. He's older and can be had on a shorter contract and his overall performance has been better. If we can keep him healthy for 150 innings, he's our ace. I think they could sign him and Pineda back, explore the trade market, sign someone like a Homer Bailey or Wade Miley type as insurance for the innings that those two miss, and still have Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe as backups. A plan like that can be put together and still leave plenty of room in the payroll to explore the positional needs we have. I don't want the Twins to panic and throw $20 million AAV for 5 years at MadBum and I don't think they will. When somebody else signs him, people are going to be pissed because we missed another target, but he's a great example of a guy that needs to come at the right price. There are so many avenue's the front office can take to successfully fill the rotation. I know why people are skeptical that they will, but they're smart enough to do it. Also for the record, I could absolutely talk myself into MadBum if we sign him. He would make us better, I just don't think it needs to be MadBum or bust.

The big drawback of MadBum that isn't being discussed enough is his home road splits. He's a legitimate number 1 when pitching at home with a 2.93 ERA and held opponents to a .213 batting average. He had a 1.10 HR/9 at home as well. On the road he pitched to a 5.29 ERA allowing a .286 average and a 1.59 HR/9. San Francisco is easily one of the best places to pitch in the MLB because of the dimensions on that park. The Twins outfield defense is elite with Buxton in CF but I'd be seriously worried about the balls that leave the stadium. Steamer has him projected for an ERA over 4.50 and I don't think that's an unfair prediction under the assumption he's on a new team in 2020. He's a good pitcher who will be a workhorse. He has an average exit velo in the 14th percentile and hard hit % in the 10th percentile who strikes out less than 9 batters per 9. In my opinion, giving MadBum $20 million per year for any length would be a panic move and will set you up for disappointment if you're expecting an ace.

Trienen had injury issues for most of 2019 as I understand. Even if healthy he's not as good as his 2018, but it's easy to see the raw stuff is there. It really wouldn't hurt to sign a guy or two like this with so many younger guys in the bullpen as it stands now. He wouldn't have to close or even set up and it'd be a nice opportunity to rebound for him and a low risk high reward situation for us.

Perez picked up a cutter in the offseason that the league had no scouting report on. He had about 12 starts before word got around and then things got ugly. He throws it off the plate every time and basically teams caught on and just took the pitch everytime he threw it. Once they were 2-0 or 3-0, he'd throw them a cookie and it would get destroyed. His cutter was his only pitch that had a positive pVal, that 95-97 mph fastball had a -16.4 pVal. He's a smoke and mirrors pitcher who gives up too many homers and walks too many guys. Let him fill innings for a tanking team.

I think the general consensus is that if they get creative and end up relying on converted relievers or bounceback guys the year after winning 101 games, their front office has failed. This was a prime year of free agency to get starting pitching help and starting pitching was the only true necessity we had. The front office said they'd go all in when it was clear the window is open, and it doesn't get any more open than now. We watched them do nothing at the deadline last year and wound up having a rookie with 28 major league innings starting game 2 in Yankee Stadium. If they bargain shop again this year, they either got ahead of themselves in terms of when they realistically thought they'd have to make good on their promise, or they flat out lied. Either way, they'll deserve all the criticism they get.

Less I'd hope. Worth a win and a half less and is missing the upside peripherals.

They will not accept that trade

Should be noteworthy that teams are kicking the tires on Pineda as well. He may not be the ace we need but if he pitches like he did down the stretch last year he can be very important piece on a winning team. Certainly a good consolation prize if we miss out on everyone else. I'm hoping we don't wind up regretting not giving the QO given the fact that it wasn't for the full amount.

Basically the Reds saw him as more of a reliever and his raise in arbitration would have overpaid him for his role. He had a pretty unlucky year in terms of ERA and he looks like a classic case of a guy who could take a next step, but the arbitration process would have paid too much for what he was in 2019.

Rooker is nearing his time where he's going to need to get his feet wet with some Major League ABs. I still believe he's trade bait because he's basically CJ Cron lite and has a super replaceable profile. He also doesn't have much of a long term role at 1B between Sano or Kirilloff if they move either to that spot. The problem with handing Rooker the keys to 1B is that this is a team coming off 101 wins, and it's not a great idea to trust a position with such a high floor of offensive production to a rookie. They may sign a veteran like Thames or Zimmerman to platoon with Marwin and let Rooker compete in the Spring with Marwin or Sano as a fallback if all else fails. They may also just re-sign Cron to a lesser deal and all of our speculation was pointless.

A Trey Mancini trade isn't going to be based around Rooker. He's arguably their best player and has 3 years of control. A trade would likely start at one of the prospects in our 3-5 range and knowing the Orioles needs would likely involve Balazovic, Duran or Graterol.

Filling Hildenberger's spot with Trienen would probably be a good move in my opinion. They could start him out lower down the chain of relievers and see if he returns to form. I think he's somewhere in between his historic 2018 and terrible 2019 and that's still a damn good reliever. I didn't see that Jimmy Nelson got non tendered. If they're going to sign a Martin Perez reclamation project again, that should be your guy.

A left handed catcher like Avila would be perfect to pair with Garver. Rich Hill would make a great addition if he were penciled into the 5th rotation spot with the assumption that someone like Dobnak would fill in for him when he's inevitably going on and off the IL. I think both are doable if we sign a Wheeler type and trade for a Jon Gray type. That scenario would also give us an opportunity to go after some further position help.

I agree that Raley is trade bait, since he's basically a left handed Rooker in terms of profile and we consider Rooker trade bait because of the lack of need for him in the majors. Chalmers doesn't have much trade value at this point because of his recent injuries and walk rate. He's got a really high ceiling and low floor, and the biggest payoff for him may be in holding onto him and seeing where he goes.

Yeah I mean I can't even explain why I usually check Baseball America for prospect rankings, everywhere does it differently. He hit just a tick over .200 in 2018 which is probably the reason for the drop off. He was exceptional before then and may have been the ideal target for the Marlins to get a 1-1 trade instead of patching something together with the Twins. Who knows though, now we're talking about the possibilities of them trading Sandy Alcantra or other young starters and I just wonder if they could have pursued it more aggressively when they were already in talks for Romo since the need was still there. Maybe we'll make a trade this offseason for a controllable arm and this whole question will go out the window. I just think now is as good a time as any to make a move for something at the major league level that builds for the future as opposed to minor league talent that's only directed toward the future.

He was a good prospect, but he was in the lower level of the minors and fell off Baseball America's top 100. He may have been the #3 prospect for the DBacks or so, but I think the Twins have a lot more talent and depth to their system and may have been able to explore some options that excluded our top 3-5. In the end, the Marlins may have just simply targeted Chisholm, sometimes that's the case. I just cited it as an example of how I'd love to see the front office get creative in acquiring some major league talent.