Cody Pirkl

Palacios is being converted to a pitcher because his hitting development has gone so poorly. Definitely a great trade that I decided not to include in my write up. I think it would be a great move to offer Odorizzi an extension depending on the remaining moves we make this offseason. I'm also a big Dakota Chalmers fan, although I would like to see him make a move to the bullpen to streamline him to the majors. I think his high amount of walks would be better hidden that way and his stuff would play up bigtime.

I think the rookies from last year are all better than Gibson and Perez. That's a low bar to clear though, and not the goal the front office should have going into the year.

I don't disagree with the belief that we have exciting young arms that could fill in in the rotation. I also think it's fair to hold that belief, as well as the belief that if we trust 2+ rookies to start 40% of our games the year after winning 101 games, that's just a blatant failure. We just watched the Indians do this last season with their outfield to try to save money. They wound up digging themselves a hole and having to fix it at the deadline and it was too late. We have a young core of players coming off career years. We don't have anything resembling a high payroll. We've watched this team lose for years, and we've finally watched one win. I'd be excited to start those young guys if this were 2015, but this team had very few issues last season to address, most of which were the starting rotation. It was a fantastic year for free agent pitching and we had money to spend. There's not really a way to spin a 101 win team handing the keys to rotation spots to a combination of 3 guys who totaled under 100 innings in their entire major league careers. Basically my argument is that if you won't increase payroll to improve this team now, you're not going to. Period. If you're decreasing payroll after winning 101 games and trusting Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer to play significant roles on this team, you're gambling away the season, division title, and good faith of the fanbase.

I think trading our starting 3B when we're already in need of a corner infielder and starting left fielder would put us back significantly as a whole regardless of who we get.

As things stand right now, Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe are all in the rotation on opening day. It's surely too early to panic, but I'd put the odds at well over 50/50 that two of these guys are in the rotation to start the year. I think they can make due with that for 39 games until Pineda is back, they've always been open to one rookie in the #5 spot. Starting the year with all 3 of these guys though would be just asking to lose the division. That would be an F- offseason if that happens in my opinion regardless of anything they do from now until opening day.

Unfortunately all of the decent free agent options are gone. We're at the point where we need to sign anybody just to fill innings. At least bring in some guys to compete with the rookies.

The beginning of the offseason was a time of hope and optimism. The Twins were coming off of 101 wins with their most prominent need being starting pitching in one of the most pitching rich offseasons in recent memory. Nobody expected a contract luring Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg to Minnesota, but there was hope that we could acquire a starting pitcher that would at least push Odorizzi in the rotation down one spot, some form of an ace to pair with Berrios. As I write this on December 27th, this kind of pitcher has not yet been acquired, nor has any starting pitching that was not in the organization in 2019. While the fan base's frustrations boil over, I wanted shine some light on a player that was a true star of the 2019 Minnesota Twins. I'm not much of a "best shape of his life" truther, but rumblings of the potential for Odorizzi's impressive 2019 began in the offseason when reports surfaced that he had changed his workout routine to improve his ailing back. This report was expanded upon later throughout the season by Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Odorizzi showed a lot of dedication, and while this report may sound ridiculous, the results have spoken for themselves. Odorizzi finished the season with a 10.08 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.51 ERA and 3.36 FIP. Those numbers may have been even better had he not suffered from a blister mid season that really inflated his numbers in a short period of time, capped off by the famous 5 IP 9 ER against the Yankees on 7/24. After returning from his blister, he righted the ship to the tune of 2.89 ERA to finish the season. I think Odorizzi's performance in game 3 in 2019 goes unnoticed since we lost. In an elimination game, Odorizzi threw 5 innings of 2 run ball, striking out 5 and walking none against a patient Yankee lineup that dismantled just about every other pitcher they'd seen to that point. The Twins were on the ropes, and Odorizzi was nails. He exited with the game well within reach despite a Twins lineup that had squandered several opportunities to that point. Odorizzi showed that he was up to the task of facing any lineup in the major leagues not just in the regular season where he dominated, but in a postseason setting with the season on the line. In a perfect world, the Twins do still acquire a number 1 starter, although it looks increasingly likely that this will have to come via trade with top options leaving the free agency market. I still advocate for the front office to not only look for this addition, but to also add to the back end to not be as dependent on last year's rookies in the regular season. However, we as fans often discount the value of the numbers our teams players put up because of how we watch them all year and see the bad just as much as the good. Let's say the Twins signed an unnamed pitcher to a 1 year deal who put up Odorizzi's numbers in 2019. How excited would you be to slot this player between Berrios and Pineda in 2020? In my opinion, those numbers aren't a bonafide ace, but you feel great sending that pitcher out every fifth day, including the playoffs. The doom and gloom among fans that has crept in has only grown while watching the teams around us add players, and I think it's gotten to a good point in the offseason to appreciate the players we already have suiting up for our AL Central champions in 2020. Teams like the White Sox are no doubt improving their team, but the bench mark set by the Twins impressive roster of returning players will be hard to reach.

As December winds down, the Minnesota Twins have two established starters in their rotation penciled in for opening day. As Michael Pineda serves his remaining 39 games of suspension, the Twins will look to fill those innings with more than the 2019 group of rookies consisting of Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe. I am still a believer in the front offices ability to swing a trade that brings in the prized arm that we've been hoping for all winter. However, I am 100% certain that we will see them take some dart throws on a pitcher or two to fill in or cover the back end of the rotation. In 2019 we saw them sign Martin Perez who despite his struggles to finish the season, set the world on fire to begin the year. A similar reclamation project I would love to see the Twins make for 2020 is Jimmy Nelson from the Brewers. Jimmy Nelson had a career year in 2017, striking out 10.21/9 and only walking 2.46. While it admittedly wasn't anything like the year of the juiced ball in 2019, his .82 HR/9 was absurd. He finished with a 3.49 ERA and 3.05 FIP and an fWAR of 4.8 in 175.1 innings. It was his third consecutive year of 175+ innings pitched. So why haven't we heard Jimmy Nelson's name in 2018 and 2019? Jimmy Nelson was running the bases on September 8th 2017 when he had to dive back into first base, tearing his rotator cuff and labrum in his shoulder. Just like that the Brewers lost their ace for the remainder of the season. It's a devastating injury for a pitcher, and wound up costing Nelson his 2018 and most of 2019 season as well. His return to the mound didn't inspire much confidence in the Brewers for the price he was due to earn, as they non tendered him, leaving him as a free agent. Nelson's 2019 was ugly to say the least. He walked 6.95/9, allowed a crippling 1.64 HR/9, leading to a 6.95 ERA. It was a lost season for Nelson. I can't lie and say I have confidence in Nelson's 2020 bounceback looking at those numbers, but I do think he would be worth the low risk gamble. A high walk rate isn't completely unexpected following an almost two year layoff. While his average FB velocity was down almost 2 MPH from his last full season, his 10.64 K/9 suggests the talent is still in there somewhere, as visually represented by a rehab start from earlier in 2019. Jimmy Nelson is still only 30 years old and should still have plenty in the tank if that shoulder is healthy, which it appeared to be in 2019 despite poor results. He would likely be healthy for the start of spring training and may benefit from his first regular preseason routine since 2017. The Twins coaching staff would likely afford him plenty of rest as we've seen in the past, and may be able to offer some adjustments as he continues to build back into a reliable pitcher. To expect another 2017 Jimmy Nelson is a mistake, but the Twins need innings, especially to begin the season. Whether you like where the rotation is at or not, it's time to consider these options at the back end. In terms of pitchers in Nelson's tier of lottery picks that would cost little and have little expectation, Nelson is the most exciting option. It would tell me our front office has identified potential in a pitcher who was previously very successful but whose numbers have suffered due to injury. Announcement of a Jimmy Nelson signing wouldn't do much to silence the fears of fans, but I would love to let him compete for a spot at the back end of our rotation in 2020. What do you think?

The Twins will definitely regress in 2020 naturally, even if it's just the baseball changing. Most teams will do so when they win 101 games. Don't think people are aware of how much regression some of the White Sox are due for in 2020 as well though. Tim Anderson won the batting title with a .399! BABIP. Yoan Moncada hit .315 with a .406 BABIP. Both have relatively high career BABIPs but last year they bordered on historic. While I have no way of understanding fluctuations in BABIP, I'd bet on them significantly decreasing. Jose Abreu is another year older, and so is Edwin Encarnacion. Both could be at risk of injury or just completely falling off, not every veteran is as special as Nelson Cruz. I guess my point is that most teams are worried about regression. If they aren't the phrase "ignorance is bliss" comes to mind. I feel good about the Twins natural regression starting at 101 wins as opposed to the White Sox natural regression from 72 wins, even with their additions.

I strongly disagree that Ray's downside is a solid rotation piece. He's one of the most high ceiling low floor pitchers in baseball not even year to year but day to day. The DBacks reportedly had a ridiculous asking price for Ray at the deadline last season despite him being less valuable in terms of WAR than Michael Pineda for example who threw 30 less innings. Trading 2 years of Eddie for one year of Ray would be dicey for me even with replacements on deck for LF. He'd have been our 4th most valuable pitcher last year behind Kyle Gibson. Maybe I'd do it Ray for Eddie straight up, but adding prospects seems like an overpay for a guy who very well could end up being about as valuable as a guy like Keuchel who we could just pay money for. The front office and pitching staff would have to take interest in being able to take Ray to the next level for me to be excited to give up much for him.

They have a full profile on Wisler, something lacking in Yamaguchi coming from overseas. They clearly feel confident that Wisler can make some changes and have a positive impact on the team. Just because there isn't competition now doesn't mean there won't be. At the very least they'll see what's available in February on the market that can be had for cheap like they did with Marwin last year. It's still only December.

Despite some people's negativity, I think the FO is still looking for impact pitching, and they're certainly looking for pitching to help this team. As you pointed out, they aren't as big on analytics in those leagues which is a big part of how our front office operates. If they looked at what numbers we had available and weren't positive he was even an upgrade over the Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe group, it becomes about more than just the cheap price tag. I'd guess he wanted a guaranteed role if he came over. If we make a trade for a better starter and sign a Teheran type, it may push him out of the rotation. We just signed Romo and have some other experimental pieces in the bullpen like Wisler. I just don't think it was a good fit despite the price. A front office has to really like a guy from those leagues to bring them over given the lack of information available.

I wouldn't go as far as to say it's a steal. Those are solid players involved as Ted outlines, and all of them have a legit shot at being valuable for a major league team. My point is that you think about trading for an ace and you think of giving up one of the top 2 hitters or top 3 pitchers because they're all guys where the sky is the limit since Syndergaard doesn't have a David Price contract. A lot of times for a guy like that they'd want guys that have similar upside that looks more achievable, but if they want quantity over quality (although the pieces listed are still quality) I would definitely be willing to pull the trigger.

If we can get Syndergaard for that package I take it everytime. Keeping Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, and Duran in a trade for a pitcher like Thor would be an absolute gift. I wouldn't be surprised if they'd rather base the trade around one of the top 5 and Eddie to trade off more players involved for more impact players involved.

It all comes down to whether or not they really think it pays off to keep that contract, which is 15% of their entire payroll slated for 2020, on a team that has plans to rebuild. They have a new GM as well, which means he has no reputation to tarnish by admitting that the Archer trade was terrible and flipping him for a couple prospects that could help in 2+ years when they hope to compete again. It may become a gamble for them to either trade the 31 year old coming off shoulder inflammation and a career worst year for what they can get, or hope he rebounds and flip him at the deadline or next offseason.

He is a classic guy who has under performed his peripherals for most of his career. That being said, if we can get him back into even the 4.00-4.50 ERA range and striking out 10+ per 9, he's a legitimate upper middle rotation pitcher. In terms of prospects, I'd assume the Pirates tendered him a contract for 2020 to try to get something out of him, but they can't expect much. Maybe they need middle infield depth which we're loaded with, or maybe they want a pitcher that could quickly make his way up to the majors like Griffin Jax. If we take the contract, the prospects involved should be an afterthought.

I've decided to continue exploring the trade market on the outside of the top tier today, just as I recently had with Marco Gonzales. This one in particular may take a leap of faith. I want to make a case for pulling off a trade for Chris Archer. Chris Archer's fall from relative acedom has been quick and severe. You would never guess that he was a quality starter as recently as last season by many measures. He has become the poster boy of the laughingstock trade the Pirates made in 2018 that included a return of Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and significant prospect capital for the Rays. To say Archer stumbled in 2019, his first full season as a Pirate would be an understatement. He had a career worst ERA supported by his peripherals, likely as a result of a career worst BB/9 (4.14) and HR/9 (1.88) His groundball rate dropped by 8% from 2018 to 2019, a terrible strategy in the season of the juice ball. Archer did not even approach 150 innings for the first time since 2013. Even his durability as a starting pitcher was nowhere to be seen despite him only being 31 years old. What could cause all of these changes for a pitcher who was rather effective for years before coming to Pittsburgh? Well the pitch mix tells an interesting story. Archer threw his slider less than he has any year since 2014 in favor of the fastball which was down a tick from 2018 to 94.2. This is a pitch that has been absolutely punished recently, producing a positive pitch vaue last in 2014. Archer has always been known for his devastating slider, and even in a 2019 season where he was tagged, it was by far his best pitch despite being thrown about 6% less. The fix I have is fairly unimaginative for Archer. After watching our coaching staff oversee so many steps forward in pitching last season, I would love to see them get a crack at Archer. Ray Searage was once known as a pitching guru and helped revive the careers of pitchers like Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, as well as others. However, Searage more recently was let go from his job. We've seen Charlie Morton leave Pittsburgh and become a Cy Young candidate, Tyler Glasnow appears to have been held back in the black and gold as well. I'm not even going to get into Gerrit Cole. Archer may just not be the kind of pitcher that Ray Searage can improve. I may even argue that there's a possibility that he made him worse. 2019 was an all out aberration for Archer, who is due $20 million over the next two seasons where he will be 31 and 32 years old. This is an opportunity to buy about as low as can be. The Pirates wouldn't ask much for Archer in the way of prospects, as they look to shed payroll at the start of a lengthy rebuild. Chris Archer's collapse parallels with his move to Pittsburgh, where he was overseen by a pitching coach who has commonly been accused of being passed over by analytics and the new age of pitching. His pitch mix changed ever so slightly in a season where we saw several career worsts. Amidst all of this, he still struck out 10.75 batters per 9, showing off his skills that appear to still be there. While he may also not be the big name Twins fans are looking for, he still has considerable upside. At the very least he has proven to be durable in just about every season until he sat out the end of 2019 with shoulder inflammation. If you believe in this coaching staff as much as I do, Chris Archer should be somebody to get excited about. I think the Pirates can survive one more terrible trade.

This is a fantastic example of why we took as many shortstops in the draft which people questioned. Some people seem to think he's the heir to SS pretty soon here when he's still a really flawed hitter. Twins may have another prime example of "prospect growth isn't linear" on their hands.

I would argue that Marco Gonzales has been more valuable than Kyle Gibson in each of the last two seasons, albeit he achieves his success with a much different style. He's not an exciting name, and doesn't get his outs in an exciting way, but he's a successful pitcher who is still young. Although I wouldn't expect him to get much better, I think he's a fantastic candidate to continue his success at least. In terms of Martin Perez, I can guarantee you Marco is better than him.

I don't dislike Seager but I think there has to be two situations where trading for him makes sense. 1. The Mariners are willing to eat a not insignificant amount of that contract. There's no way Seager is worth $38 million over the next two seasons and we'd be better off spending that kind of money on a free agent/trade pitcher or signing a more impact bat like Donaldson for a bit more if we're footing the full amount. 2. His contract comes with somebody like Marco Gonzales who is a cheap, controllable pitcher who helps the Twins right now. I'm not interested in prospects coming over to soften the blow. If the front office has a number cap in mind for the 2019 payroll, I don't want that much of it inhabited by Seager's contract unless there's more MLB ready talent included.

I'm hoping for big steps forward from Cavaco and Javier this year. I think both have the tools to shoot through the farm system. I'm also interested to see if they stick at SS.

I could absolutely see the disappointment in this being the big pitching move. Gonzales seemingly lacks the floor we've seen from Gibson, but he undoubtedly lacks the ceiling. It's probably a better move for a season where we didn't have such a need for an upper tier arm, but in a vacuum I believe it would make the team better without much hit to the salary cap or minor leagues.

Today I'm not going to try to sell you guys a top of the rotation arm that we could trade for. We've seen our fair share of coverage on David Price, Yu Darvish, etc. Instead I wanted to talk about an under the radar move for a valuable pitcher. Despite the criticism among fans for this team's failure to land the big fish, it's the exact kind of move that this front office loves to make. We need arms in this rotation. Not just for Pineda's month plus absence to begin the season, but down the stretch. Enter Marco Gonzales. Marco Gonzales was acquired from the Cardinals by Seattle in 2017 and didn't have himself a banner year. The soft tossing lefty pitched to the tune of a 6.08 ERA in 40 innings combined between the two teams. However, he rebounded in 2018, throwing 166 innings with an ERA at 4.00 on the nose and peripherals that showed encouraging signs. In truly uncommon fashion in 2019, Marco Gonzales delivers the ball to the plate at just under 90 MPH, sitting at 89.3. Despite this, his sinker was his second best pitch at 3.8 pVAL. He complements this with a cutter, curveball, and his best pitch, the changeup. His 6.52 K/9 won't excite you, but his 1.02 HR/9 and near 41% groundball rate make for an excellent equalizer. In 2018 and 2019, Gonzales was worth 3.4 and 3.7 wins respectively by Fangraphs measurements. His 2019 fWAR would have slotted him in as our 3rd most valuable pitcher behind Odorizzi and Berrios, and our 7th most valuable player on the roster. He may not push everyone in this rotation down one tier like we'd dreamed of at the beginning of the offseason, but he would likely be our 3rd or 4th best pitcher and has proven over the last two years that he can chew up innings with the best in the league. On top of all of his numbers, Gonzales also is paid $1m in 2020 and is controlled for the next 3 years. Gonzales via trade may be better value than signing a Dallas Keuchel via free agency given what we've seen from the market, who actually had a worse year in 2019 despite a similar pitching style. The money could be allocated elsewhere whether it be bullpen or position help. Despite Gonzales being on top of the Mariners rotation, he should not cost a king's ransom via trade given his limited upside. We know the Mariners are in a rebuild, and they have Jerry Dipoto at the helm who would likely trade the family dog for AA arm he finds interesting. I think this addition would be unexciting for most, but extremely underrated. The Twins would have years of what appears to be an innings eater with a high floor and low ceiling, and would certainly become better as a team. Plus I would be 100% here for the angry Tommy Milone comps.

Urena really imploded last year and got moved to the bullpen. He would easily be the cheapest option from them I'd think, but you're right. Not worth Eddie Rosario even coming off a bad year.

While the Twins should absolutely be looking at deals with the Marlins, I question how viable it is. They have remarked how "incredibly high" the Twins price on Eddie Rosario is when they said the same thing about Nomar Mazara who was dealt for a high A outfielder. That just tells me that they aren't even looking for a reasonable deal, but one that is just downright lopsided for them. I doubt they're too inclined to trade any of their younger guys like Alcantra, Lopez or Yamamoto who have all had at least some success in the majors and are controlled for years. I think they're trying to follow the traditional rebuild route and trade Caleb Smith. He's 28 instead of 23/24 like the rest of the names, and is basically found money for them. He's one of the first guys to show any success in this rotation and as the longest tenured and oldest of the group, is the likeliest to be traded. Is Caleb Smith worth Eddie Rosario? We likely saw the worst case for Eddie last season where he put up a 1.2 fWAR. While he was rightfully loathed at times by Twins fans, he finished the year with decent numbers offensively even if they resulted from hitting in the middle of the order and were somewhat hollow. Caleb Smith from what I've seen is viewed pretty highly by fans, as he put up what may be his career season. A K/9 over 9 and a 4.50 ERA is a great season. His indicators say he should have been over 5 however, and it really took some regression even to get to that 4.50 considering how great he was in the first half. He also has an injury history and in game durability questions, as he rarely threw beyond 5 innings. If I'm the Twins, I'm wary of trading for a pitcher coming off a career year who was worth 1 win for our outfielder who had a career worst year worth 1.2 wins. It seems like a recipe for disaster if Eddie rebounds and Smith turns into a pumpkin. I would give up prospects outside of our top 5 or so for one of their younger guys to pair with Eddie if the front office sees potential, but otherwise I'm not looking to just dump Eddie off. What do you guys think?