Cody Pirkl

The bar to clear for a long reliever isn't particularly high. The thought is that whoever pitches in those spots is coming into games that already have a large difference in score whether they're ahead or behind. We've seen in past years if a starter exits early in a close game, they like to go to traditional relievers to try to keep the game in hand. As I also noted, I think we saw with Dobnak in particular a few years ago that this role doesn't really set them up to slot the long reliever into the rotation immediately if a spot opens up. If the specific scenario for a long reliever doesn't come up for 10 days, they just don't get into any games. I'd bet they'd prefer to put Ober in AAA to throw 5+ innings every 5th day so if he's needed in the majors to start he can seamlessly make that transition. "Veteran" in this case isn't meant to be based off of De Leon's experience. I mean it to signify a pitcher who is expendable and whose development won't be impacted by a role that could turn out to be inconsistent. If they struggle, you move on. If they don't pitch for two weeks, that's not valuable time they're missing out on. I can guarantee you they won't put a legitimate prospect in this role.

Hmm I think there was a misunderstanding. I don't think Ober is a certainty to end up in the bullpen. I think they want him in a role where he's consistently throwing 5+ innings in order for him to be able to step into the rotation if there's an injury.

Rocco Baldelli has made mention of preferring to have a long reliever in the bullpen, someone to eat up bulk innings to save the rest of the arms. Is such a role possible for Opening Day? Who are the candidates? Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have played with using a long reliever in the bullpen at times in the last few years and found that the role is inconsistent and sometimes not worth the trouble. In 2021, Randy Dobnak made the team as a long reliever as the team’s assumed sixth starter. The downside became evident almost immediately. When starters exited in a close game, it made more sense to go to a high-leverage reliever to keep the game intact. The Twins almost never found themselves having a sizable lead or deficit when the starter exited. Dobnak would go upwards of a week without throwing a single pitch, and he looked like that was very much the case when he did finally get some action. It can be argued that we learned that a long reliever role can’t be filled by a legitimate starting pitching option, at least not if you want them to develop or be ready to fill in if a member of the rotation goes down. This leaves the role to such a specific type of player that it becomes kind of hard to believe the Twins would actually choose to dedicate a roster spot to such a role. That being said, Rocco Baldelli continues to hint that he would prefer to go this route, so it’s worthwhile to explore some options on who could fill such a role. Cole Sands Sands is already walking the starter/reliever tightrope. The Twins were clear they weren’t planning on anyone making a formal switch from starting to relieving this spring, but Sands was listed as the closest arm to doing so. Sands already holds a 40-man roster spot and has options remaining, making him a prime candidate to serve as a long man on Opening Day. He also made spot appearances in this role in 2022 on occasion. Sands is far from the next man up in the rotation, and for this reason, may serve this role better than someone like Bailey Ober who needs to be ready to fill a traditional starter’s role on a moment’s notice. Sands could use the opportunity to acclimate himself to a bullpen job, which seems like an eventual certainty for his career. He should still be able to provide 3+ innings of work in a pinch as well, which makes him a decent candidate. Randy Dobnak While a long shot, it could once again be Dobnak to fill a long relief role. At this point, he’s buried in the rotational depth chart. He finally appears to be healthy, and while his unbelievable numbers in his debut are unlikely to be repeated, Dobnak could be serviceable and durable, making him a solid fit. The issue of course is Dobnak’s lack of a 40-man spot after being outrighted off the 40-man roster this winter. The Twins can easily make space if they feel he’s the best man for the job. Though the money they committed to Dobnak is inconsequential, they do owe him a few million in the next few years. If he’s in a good place health-wise, the Twins could very well decide to get their money’s worth and see if Dobnak can make a resurgence in a different role. He’s been used more or less as a starter so far this spring, meaning he should be physically capable of filling bulk innings if his previously ailing finger is right. José De León The deepest of sleepers, De León is a former top prospect that was discussed as part of a return for Brian Dozier back when he was in the Dodgers system. Injuries have derailed a once-promising career, but he’s still fighting for a roster spot at 30 years old. De León came out on Sunday and showed that he still had plenty left in the tank, allowing two hits and one run in three spring innings and striking out six. De León may not have a 40-man spot or options, but the right-hander is in a perfect situation with the Twins able to open a spot on the 40-man roster with ease. Rather than putting one of their young arms in an inconsistent role, the Twins could opt for adding a veteran to fill this job while being prepared to cut bait if it goes poorly. Keep an eye on De León’s performance in the World Baseball Classic in the coming weeks as well, as he’ll be departing to pitch for Puerto Rico this week. There are other candidates that could take a long relief role and do reasonably well, but it’s likely the Twins avoid using young prospects such as Josh Winder or Simeon Woods Richardson because of the inconsistency that comes along with the job. Instead expect the Twins to look towards former starters turned relievers or more of the veteran expendable types to fill the role, if the Twins choose to go this route at all. Are there any candidates you’d like to see take the long reliever role? Should the Twins bother using a long reliever at all? Let us know below! View full article

Gilberto Celestino has had a rough few years, much of which has been out of his control. With news coming that he’s sustained an unfortunate injury, it’s fair to wonder when the hopeful future contributor will catch a break. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Gilberto Celestino was acquired from Houston in the July 2018 Ryan Pressly trade. The Twins saw a raw but physically gifted outfielder who has steadily made his way up to the majors since. The fact that Celestino was able to do so speaks to his raw athletic ability above all else, as the last few years have included some difficult obstacles. Unfortunately, it appears he’s hit yet another significant roadblock this spring. Celestino is a tiring topic for many fans. He hasn’t hit at the big-league level and has a history of mental mistakes, which has resulted in him being written off by some despite the fact that he’s still just 24 years old. As with all struggling players, there’s context. It’s easy to look back and forget that Celestino was promoted directly from Double-A early in the 2021 season. He had played just 21 games at the level. Of course, that was after the 2020 season in which he played no games. And in 2019? He ended that season with eight games at High-A Fort Myers. The Twins had a need for center field depth, and Celestino was the best option available. For what it’s worth, he looked every bit the part defensively and has continued to do so. Unfortunately, he paired his defensive value with a .136/.177/.288 slash line in the MLB in 2021, which eventually led to a demotion to his first Triple-A stint. It was then that Celestino flashed his offensive upside, slashing .290/.384/.443. It earned him another shot in the big leagues to begin 2022. He started out hot before falling off a cliff at the plate. In 122 games, Celestino was 18% below the league-average hitter. Despite his defense remaining pristine, the Twins had made up their mind that Celestino had to try to make up for lost development time not only from his rushed debut but from his missed 2020 COVID season in the minors. They traded for Michael A. Taylor to be the primary rigright-handedckup in center field. It was a welcomed development because of the prospect of Celestino finding his bat again in Triple-A and possibly developing into more of a solid future MLB player. Because of the development Celestino clearly needs, his recent injury hurts despite the fact that he had little to no chance to begin 2023 with the Twins. Taylor is a one-year rental and it was likely Celestino would again take over that role in the coming years. While this is still possible, Celestino will be behind to start the season after tearing the UCL in his thumb and likely missing 6-8 weeks. The hits just keep coming for the Twins young center fielder. Celestino may very well still play a role in the 2023 Twins season at some point. Injuries or just flat-out performance by the center fielder in St. Paul could force the issue down the stretch. The Twins are still hopeful that he can develop into a quality Major League player, but more seasoning is needed and the recent injury has put the possibility on hold. Before looking at his surface numbers and deciding Celestino isn’t a piece of the Twins future, just consider the path he took to get here and how much of a testament it is to his raw talent that he could still right the ship. Here’s hoping that Gilberto Celestino catches a break in 2023. View full article

I'll be super disappointed if Moran doesn't make the Opening Day roster. He deserved better last year and I think sending him back to AAA does nothing more than waste his innings as his walk issues aren't going to get fine tuned in the minors. If they can look past Pagan's record setting HR issues that can break a game on one pitch, I think we can put up with Moran walking a few too many hitters.

I agree, I'm hoping he's just building his way up after missing all of last year is all but to be that far below his previous average is concerning. I think he could still be useful at 93-94 mph but I worry that this would indicate his elbow is still bothering him.

Could easily see that playing out. Henriquez will for sure depend on injury. I don't like how they're classifying it right now but who knows? If he's healthy I think we'll see him sooner rather than later.

Most of the key free agents have signed, but the Twins have finally started to add to the bullpen. With this being the only obvious roster battle raging this spring, it’s worth checking in on how the bullpen could be shaken up at the last minute. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika/USA Today With not a single reliever added in free agency for the bulk of the offseason, it appeared the Twins were content trusting their internal options for the bullpen on Opening Day. Things have changed, and the Twins have set the stage for a shakeup in the bullpen, at least at the bottom of the depth chart. On February 26, the Twins made a pair of prospective additions to the bullpen. In claiming Dennis Santana off of waivers and signing Jeff Hoffman to a minor-league deal with opt outs, the Twins added a pair of intriguing relief arms to fight for low-leverage bullpen spots. Each is interesting in their own way. Dennis Santana has bounced around quite a bit for a 26 year old. He does enough well to warrant MLB teams giving him a shot, but has enough warts to have not yet found a long term home. His slider is his primary pitch, and for good reason. The pitch not only allowed an exit velocity of under 85, its 41% whiff rate is dominant. His sinker gets crushed despite sitting in the high 90s and he walks a few too many hitters, but his .7 Wins Above Replacement would put him square in the middle of the Twins 2022 bullpen. It’s easy to see why the Twins would gamble on Santana finally putting it all together. Jeff Hoffman has never really found success in the MLB but features a high spin fastball and a slider/changeup repertoire to help equalize left and right handed hitters. He similarly walks too many, but based on the raw data on his pitch mix, it’s surprising that he’s never put it all together. He has several opt outs if not added to the MLB roster by certain dates, but can be stashed in Triple-A for a brief period. The bar to clear for pitchers like Hoffman or Santana to stick with the team on Opening Day likely aren’t high. For starters, the Twins have shown that depth is their number one priority this offseason. So much so that they want MLB caliber players stashed away in Triple-A if possible. The current bullpen includes Jovani Moran and Trevor Megill, both of whom have minor league options. It’s possible that regardless of the incumbent’s performances, Hoffman and/or Santana could make the Opening Day roster if they look at all like competent relievers this spring. This would allow the Twins to have options ready to go in Triple-A with MLB experience in the event that things go south early. Further complicating things is Ronny Henriquez arriving at camp with some troubling arm pain. Though the Twins claimed no young starters would begin the year in the bullpen, Henriquez was a likely candidate to make the switch in 2023 at some point. If his ability to be on the field is at all in question, it makes sense for the Twins to further insulate their bullpen with viable options in Triple-A. The easiest way to do so would be for Megill or Moran to start the year in St. Paul. Spring Training performances should be taken with a grain of salt, but they matter more for some players than others. On Sunday Trevor Megill went out and pitched about as poorly as possible on the same day the Twins added two of his possible replacements. He struggled to throw strikes, and when he did they were crushed. After getting one out on 33 pitches, Megill allowed three walks, three hits, two homers and six runs. If the door to utilize his remaining minor league option was already open, he likely cracked it just a bit more. Megill already finished 2022 on a poor note as he struggled to reign in his new slider. He’ll have to bounce back in his next few spring outings in order to not make the Twins decision too easy. The odds of a bullpen shakeup have likely increased more than we may have anticipated as the Twins spent most of the winter ignoring the reliever market. With another 40 man roster spot to play with, it’s possible they even make another move to bring in more competition for the bottom of the bullpen pecking order. Either way, there are now a couple more names to keep an eye on this spring, and it’ll be interesting to see who ultimately wins the few jobs that are up for grabs. Please share your thoughts on the Twins bullpen options in the COMMENTS below. View full article

Prospects flame out every year in baseball. It’s just the nature of the game. From organizational depth to top prospects, no young player’s impact is guaranteed. Three former top Twins prospects have particularly important seasons on the horizon in 2023. Image courtesy of Theo Tollefson, Twins Daily The Twins have three prospects who have tailed off in recent seasons after sitting relatively high in the organizational rankings. Though they don’t share much in regards to their positions or skills, all three have reached a point in their careers where 2023 may reach “make or break” status. Keoni Cavaco The Twins were aiming for upside in 2019 when they selected Cavaco 13th overall, and Cavaco had shot up draft boards due to a stellar 2019 high school season. His raw tools were evident just by watching him connect with the baseball and run the bases. Unfortunately for the Twins, those tools just haven’t translated to professional baseball yet. Cavaco hasn’t progressed above Low-A ball thus far. At age 21, that’s not a huge red flag, as patience is key with high school draft picks. In this case, Cavaco hasn’t done much to force the issue. In his three seasons, he’s failed to reach even league-average offensive output (though this totals just under 800 plate appearances). His 30%+ strikeout rate in each season has not been made up in the on base or slugging department, as he has yet to post an OPS above .633. Cavaco also moved off of shortstop in 2022 to third base, a premium offensive position. He’s tumbled down prospect rankings for some time, but his 2023 season is very important if the 21 year old wants to keep himself in the conversation for the team’s future plans. Aaron Sabato Unlike Cavaco, Aaron Sabato was seen as more of a “safe” pick, though lacking upside because of his build and defensive profile. After simply dominating in two college seasons at North Carolina, the Twins saw a chance to grab a premium bat that could make all other questions irrelevant. The adjustment from college to professional baseball has been difficult thus far. Sabato has flashed the offensive potential the Twins drafted, as he’s been above league average in A and A+ ball. He’s been extremely streaky, and while his on base ability and power continue to carry him, making contact continues to be an issue. Batting average has become far from the standard for valuable offensive players, but Sabato hit .226 in High-A ball for most of 2022 and struggled mightily hitting .179 in his first taste of Double-A action. His strikeout rate has consistently been above 30%. Twins fans know all too well that there’s a point of diminishing returns when it comes to things like on base ability and power making up for average. Sabato walking that tightrope in the low minors raises red flags. With little to no defensive versatility, Sabato’s bat has to carry him in 2023. The power and on base ability appear to be real. The missing piece of the puzzle is the consistency, particularly with contact. If Sabato can find it in 2023, he’ll shoot up through the minors. If not, his prospect status will continue to plummet. Jordan Balazovic Fans have been hearing about Jordan Balazovic for years and continue to do so. Unfortunately it’s been for all the wrong reasons lately. After his prospect stock soared to new heights from 2019 through 2021, it’s all been downhill. While dealing with nagging injuries in 2022, Balazovic got absolutely crushed at Triple-A to the tune of a 7.39 ERA. A good final month improved his numbers and offered hope, but the damage to his prospect status was done. Balazovic had major questions headed into this spring. This of course was before news dropped that Balazovic would be missing time due to an off-field altercation resulting in a broken jaw. Right at the beginning of likely the most important season of his professional career, Balazovic will be playing from behind because of off field choices, and the Twins do not seem pleased in the slightest. In 2023, Jordan Balazovic not only has to make a complete 180 on the field production wise, but it appears he has to win back the trust of the organization that drafted him out of high school in 2016. Time is becoming a factor not because of his age, but because he now takes up a spot on the 40 man roster. As a team that churns through their roster as the Twins do, another year of struggles from Balazovic would put both parties in a difficult situation. It’s safe to say all three names listed have the talent to bounce back in a big way in 2023, and just some minor changes could go a long way. Are there any other prospects coming up on a make or break 2023? Do you agree with the three listed? Let us know below. View full article

A pair of Twins pitchers ventured outside the organization this winter for their offseason training. Now that we’re finding out a bit more of what they’d been working on, what could it mean for 2023? Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Driveline Baseball has become something of a household name in baseball circles in recent years, as it’s extended its reach from youth baseball to the MLB level. Using the newest technology and data available in the baseball world, Driveline has its fair share of success stories among professional pitchers. In 2023, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle are looking to become the newest names added to the list. Mahle and Ryan likely had very different goals in mind this offseason and each opted to take them to the pitching labs of Driveline Baseball. We often hear little about what specifically pitchers are working on during their offseason routine, but given the reputation of Driveline and the details that we’ve received, this news should be exciting to Twins fans. Tyler Mahle The first thought when hearing his name tied to Driveline was a recovery plan for whatever shoulder ailment ended his 2022 season. Instead, Mahle went about his business as usual this offseason, looking to make tweaks to his repertoire. Even when healthy last season, he seemed to be missing just a small piece of the puzzle. Mahle opted to revamp his slider after the 2022 season. He has what’s classified as a slider and a cutter, though it’s fair to wonder whether both are the same pitch that classify differently at times, as the “slider” averaged a bit less velocity than the “cutter”. At any rate, these were his two worst pitches by most measures. Expected Batting Average and Slugging were markedly worse than his fastball and splitter for these two pitches, and it showed up in his platoon splits. Right-handed hitters put up an OPS of .784 against the right-handed Mahle, much worse than the .602 mark against left-handed hitters. It was clear he lacked an equalizer against same-handed hitters. From the little we can see, Mahle has added more horizontal break to his slider and less vertical break. It appears to be a new look breaking ball, which is a welcome change based on how the previous one had difficulties equalizing right-handed hitters. For how well he’s performed against left-handed hitters in his career, if he can find any kind of similar success against righties, he could become a certified stud. Joe Ryan After being able to dominate the minors with mostly a fastball, the Twins tried to incorporate a slider to better equip Joe Ryan to start in the MLB. On the season, Ryan allowed just one less homer on the slider than he did his fastball, though he threw the slider roughly a third as much. Ryan seemed to find something to end the season, as the pitch was dominant in September by many measures including Expected Slugging and Batting Average, hard hit % etc. Ryan took that momentum to Driveline as well this winter. For Ryan, further developing another pitch is a must. His fastball remained fantastic despite being used over 60% of the time, which means any kind of plus secondary offering would raise Ryan’s game to new heights. With the foundation he and the Twins built on the breaking ball, it’s exciting to think about what an offseason at Driveline could do for the pitch. Ryan had more than one pitch in mind this winter. Unlike Mahle, Ryan is significantly better against same-handed hitters. His strikeouts markedly drop off, suggesting a need for a good matchup pitch for left-handed hitters. Because of this, Ryan worked on a split changeup this winter as well. Of note, this is the same pitch that has been Tyler Mahle’s bread and butter secondary, and is a big reason for the lack of platoon splits in his career. Traditionally the pitch is a little faster and has more late life than the plain old changeup. This makes it a bit tougher to pick up by opposite handed hitters who typically have a better look at what’s coming from the pitcher. While it’s tough to say what to expect from Ryan debuting an entirely new pitch, it’s easy to look at the changeup he used just 12% of the time in 2022 and see room for improvement. Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan have high end upside. Both have good foundations in their repertoire, Ryan with his magical fastball and Mahle with his uncommon ability to negate platoon splits. It sounds like both went in search of the missing pieces this winter at Driveline, and it’ll be interesting to see how the new pitches look. There’s a possibility that both pitchers raise their games to new levels. View full article

News has started to trickle in from Spring Training as we start to learn more about the Twins plans for players in 2023. One bit of news that’s dropped is particularly interesting regarding their depth of young pitchers. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports For once, the Twins have some depth to their pitching staff with a mix of holdovers and younger arms in both the rotation and the bullpen. After a 2022 in which they turned Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax from starters to impact relievers, many have become interested in what struggling starting pitching prospect could be the next to follow that path. There are plenty of candidates to be fair. For now however, it doesn’t sound as though we’ll see those plans play out immediately. Such a small piece of news but so much to draw from it. Assuming health, Bailey Ober appears to be headed for Triple-A to begin 2023 due to the MLB rotation depth. For once, however, the Triple-A rotation will be tons of fun with names such as Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson , and Jordan Balazovic behind him. It’s going to be a treat to attend CHS Field this summer to see some legitimate young arms throwing every day. With only limited spots in the Saints rotation, the Twins immediate plans to keep everyone starting is interesting. Not being too quick to transition starters into the bullpen is good practice. Especially considering the health questions in the Twins rotation, it’s good to make sure there are as many arms as possible to step in if things go south. For now, it appears the last spot in St. Paul is a three-way battle with names such as Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder. With a few injuries this spring, those three options for the #5 spot in St. Paul could all find themselves starting games consistently. It may quickly become an issue that works itself out. It’s also just much easier to transition a pitcher from a starter to a reliever in a hurry than it is vice versa If the Twins health holds through the spring and they reconsider a few of their young arms, they could switch them over in no time as they did with Sands and Henriquez down the stretch in 2022. It may not have them as ready to relieve as they would be had they been preparing from Day 1, but some guys are able to flip the switch very quickly. Not committing young arms to those spots also opens up a few more possibilities. The Twins may not have as much Opening Day bullpen depth with all of these young arms remaining starters, but they can go and get external depth to build up even more. As of February 15, players such as Royce Lewis and Chris Paddack can all be put on the 60-Day IL, opening 40-man spots. It’ll be interesting to see how the Twins choose to fill these spots, but it’s probably safe to bet on one addition to the bullpen at the very least. The reliever market has been nearly bare for some time now, but a few fits still exist. They’ve already been linked to Chaska native Brad Hand, who’s far from the bullpen ace he once was but has continued to limit hard contact. Several other arms remain that they could take fliers on such as Will Smith or Trevor Rosenthal. They’re also due for their yearly waiver claim that makes the Opening Day roster. If they have any moves left to make, it’s easy to see at least one of them being a reliever because of the position-player logjam, and the Twins have at least two 40-man spots to fill if they feel inclined to make an addition. It also may be too early to rule out a trade. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely to hold onto Max Kepler, but this could easily be posturing on the Twins part. The left-handed hitting outfield depth is to a point where it can be argued that it doesn’t make sense. They aren’t trading recently-signed Joey Gallo, and Trevor Larnach’s value is likely at a low point despite a hope that he can still become an impact hitter to pair with the plus defense that graded out in 2022. This still leaves Kepler as the likeliest player shipped out if a trade is made. As a "two-ish" win player who gets most of his value from defense at this point, he’s certainly a candidate to be sent out in a trade involving a reliever. The Twins are left with a non-obvious answer for the next man up if one of the current MLB bullpen arms misses time. The Triple-A bullpen likely won’t have a young, obvious option to get the call if needed early in the season, although any acquisitions would likely push Jovani Moran into that spot once again (to this writer’s exhaustion). It’s likely that as the year goes on, we start to see some of these pitchers transition into the bullpen depending on the Twins MLB roster needs and how the young arms perform in the rotation. Sands is noted as the closest one to making this switch after struggling all-around last season. Henriquez got hit far too hard as a Triple-A starter in 2022. Winder’s shoulder appears to be a chronic issue at this point. If any of these issues persist, look for the Twins to pivot quickly off of their preseason plans to keep these arms in the rotation. By season’s end, we’ll likely be seeing a few of them making appearances out of the bullpen. View full article

In my opinion he showed enough last year to be the last guy in the bullpen of a competing team. His numbers are also weighed down heavily by the last two months where he appears to have been trying to work a brand new pitch into his second most used offering which is tough. Even if he's a low to mid 4s ERA guy that's a decent win for someone snagged off waivers. With his stuff there's always the possibility he can be even better though.

Once again the Twins have essentially foregone any bullpen upgrades this offseason. With young arms hopefully nearing, this choice could turn out to be justified. One low profile reliever could factor into the equation too. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika/USA Today Trevor Megill could be called a relative success when compared to the other acquisitions the Twins made to the 2022 bullpen. Megill debuted with the Cubs in 2021 but was DFAd after the season. The Twins claimed him and soon after they DFAd him and he was outrighted to Triple-A. Megill found his way onto the roster in late May. He returned to the Saints for one appearance in early July but was able to stick with the big-league club for the remainder of the season. He may remain there as we head into the 2023 campaign. Megill threw 45 innings with a 4.80 ERA. He struck out over a batter per inning, kept walks to a respectable level and was incredibly stingy in the longball department. This led to FIP and xFIP painting the picture of a mid to low 3s ERA reliever, even if xERA disagreed. Averaging 98 mph on the fastball, the raw stuff alone was probably enough to justify Megill remaining in a low-leverage role throughout the season. After bouncing around a few organizations with little MLB experience, some may assume that at 28, Megill may not have much development left. But what if they were wrong? For much of the season, Megill was a two-pitch pitcher. Plenty of relievers get by on a limited repertoire, but typically one of their pitches are an equalizer against same-handed hitters. Megill, who threw almost exclusively a high 90s fastball and a big overhand curve, didn’t have such a repertoire. In fact, Megill performed significantly better against left-handed hitters than right. His strikeout-to-walk rate was three times higher against lefties than righties. His OPS against was nearly .150 points lower. He was actually more of a lefty specialist, and a dominant one at that. Still though, there isn’t much reason that Megill shouldn’t be getting right-handed hitters out consistently. The Twins undoubtedly took note of this along the way, as Megill started throwing a pitch that was classified as a slider in August around 27% of the time, and this became his second-most used pitch for the final two months of the season. It’s easy to assume that the Twins were trying to provide Megill with a pitch to match up better against right-handed hitters, as any kind of improvement in that department would have raised Megill’s game to a whole new level. Their midseason attempt to make an adjustment doesn’t show up well on paper with Megill posting his worst two months of the season with this new pitch, but it’s likely been a focal point of his offseason and could have much better results come spring. Another issue with Megill is that for all of the spin and velocity he gets on his fastball, it’s one of his most-hittable pitches. Opponents hit nearly .300 on the pitch, and while they didn’t slug well against it, the expected numbers say Megill got lucky. Looking at where he threw his heater gives an obvious answer as to what’s going on here. Averaging 98 mph is a huge plus for Megill, but the days of even a triple-digit fastball overpowering lineups are gone. Hitters were bound to get around on it every so often, and when they did, the fastball was often right where they could drive it. We’ve seen the Twins fix this with pitchers such as Tyler Duffey. Dropping the fastball at the top of the zone consistently keeps it out of the danger zone and allows it to play up a few miles per hour. It worked with Tyler Duffey working low-to-mid 90s. For Megill, it may make the pitch unhittable if he has the command to make a change. It’s possible that Megill remains the low-leverage middle reliever he was in 2022. The fact that he remains on the roster, and the Twins didn’t push hard to replace him, however, hopefully means that they have hopes that he has more ceiling to reach and a plan to get him there. They began the process midseason in 2022 but with a full offseason to develop a new pitch, Megill could wind up with a devastating pitch to pair with his high-octane fastball against right-handed hitters. In 2023, Trevor Megill could factor into the bullpen mix in a surprisingly big way. Do you agree? View full article

Tyler Mahle has become a bit of an afterthought when considering the team’s success in 2023. Given his season-ending injury, this may be fair. It’s easy to forget, however, that if Tyler Mahle is healthy, he could make a huge impact. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports The Twins would probably like a redo on the Tyler Mahle trade at this point given how 2022 ended up. They paid a premium for pitching help at the deadline, shipping out three solid prospects in Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar to try to hold onto first place in the AL Central. The Twins would get just 16 1/3 innings from Mahle who immediately wound up on the IL with shoulder issues. It’s impossible to argue that his stock has dropped precipitously, likely to the point where had Mahle remained in Cincinnati, an offseason trade likely wouldn’t even be on the table for teams across the league. Despite Mahle’s remaining questions on the shoulder, he still has an entire season to make good on the Twins investment. Though not what they were focused on when they acquired the right-hander last summer, 2023 could easily turn a 180 on the perception of that trade. People seem to forget that Tyler Mahle was blossoming into a very good pitcher prior to injury. Some might argue that he had already emerged as a top of the rotation option. After a few years of struggles, Mahle quietly broke out in the shortened 2020 season. In just under 50 innings pitched, he posted a near 30% K rate and a 3.59 ERA which was supported by his peripherals. His 1.1 Fangraphs WAR projected out to a 3+ win pitcher. The Twins leader by this measure in 2023 was Sonny Gray with 2.4 WAR. Mahle carried his success over to 2021, setting a career high in innings with 180 and posting a 3.75 ERA and nearing the 4 WAR mark. In 2022 Mahle got off to a rough start with an ERA over 6.00 in the first month, but was otherwise on track to finish as the same level of pitcher down the stretch. In regard to his skill set when on the mound, the Twins had good reason to pay up for him, as he’s rock solid as is and may have some untouched ceiling from his days in Cincinnati. Despite pitching in one of baseball's premier offensive stadiums, he’s been a premium starting pitcher. The big blemish in his profile has always been the longball, which should surprise no one as Cincinnati’s park has ranked top 3 in homers in each of the last three seasons. By Statcast measures, the 18 expected homers allowed by Mahle in Cincinnati’s ballpark in 2023 drops all the way down to 11 at Target Field. Not only can we expect a healthy Tyler Mahle to post a mid to high 3s ERA when he’s on the mound, it’s incredibly easy to dream of his game finding another level just by a few more fly balls staying in the park. The Twins current construction of their roster also points to further improvement in Tyler Mahle’s game. As is the case with most pitchers who allow a healthy amount of homers, a majority of balls in play off of him are hit in the air. In 2022 Mahle had a 46.8% fly ball rate. The Twins would love to see a repeat given the depth of defensive outfield options on the roster including Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Michael A. Taylor etc. Not only should Target Field keep a few more homers in the ballpark, but it’s easy to see a few more singles and extra base hits finding the glove with how the Twins have put together their outfield. It’s been interesting to see references to a solid Twins rotation with limited mention of Tyler Mahle. His end to 2022 was disappointing and left a lot of question marks, but nothing was acutely wrong with his then ailing shoulder. On one hand this could be bad news as there’s nothing specific to fix, but on the other he’s had an offseason to correct the issue and there would likely be more reason to worry had the fix been something like shoulder surgery. Mahle is certainly a risk to have a recurring injury, but why does his shoulder get so much more attention than Sonny Gray’s rash of ailments that kept him from reaching even 120 innings? Recently acquired Pablo López has an even more colorful history of shoulder injuries, and while he reached 180 innings in 2022, he noticeably was not the same pitcher in the second half as he wore down. At the very least, Mahle is on the same level skill wise as these pitchers, and it can be argued that he’s shown more consistency and has a better argument to show further improvement. The first step, as is the case with so many players on the Twins roster, is health for Tyler Mahle. If he provides us with a favorable answer, he’s going to be one of the biggest contributors to a pitching staff that desperately needs a rebound season. Do you agree? View full article

I definitely agree, he's a far better player than Gallo or Kepler and is much more valuable. He isn't at a make or break point in his career, my point is he's nearing the make or break point of his Twins tenure. I just can't find any reason to believe they won't give him the Arraez treatment if his defense doesn't come around. For better or worse, they're very willing to part with bat first players and hold glove first players to a very high standard. See Arraez vs Kepler.

Agreed. Nobody wants to part with good players, and Polanco is a good player. Luis Arraez was a good player too though, and it takes a good player to get good players back.

Exactly. Polanco is a great player on a reasonable deal. If after 2023 they feel like they can fill 75% of Polanco's value at 2B with one of the prospects and trade Polanco for a really good deal, history says there's no way they wouldn't do it. There aren't too many untouchables on the Twins roster in my opinion.