jkcarew

Please go outside the organization. Having said that, watching LA, Colorado, Cubs and Milwaukee play yesterday....it drove home how really far away the Twins roster is from looking like that of a true contender. Lots and lots of work to be done beyond getting a new/better manager.

In 2018, the pitchers have benefited from having three historically awful teams in the division. Nearly 60 starts against lineups that were barely better than AAA. Those lineups will be getting better. The staff lacks a true #1. While Berrios may take that step in 2019, he didn’t in 2018...and I wouldn’t mind at all the FO going aggressively for whatever #1 types (or #1-ish) might be available in the off-season.

His career OPS is 672...and that represents a very clear boundary on his greatness. If we attribute the difference of 22 DRS to Buxton alone...that amounts to 2 wins. If Buxton is going to be OPS+'ing 80 (or less), it won't take much for an average defensive player to make up the 2 wins in the batters box. The defensive stats are cool...they just don't have the value that is often insinuated as part of Buxton conversations. Even center fielders have to hit some to have value. Having said that, if Buxton could OPS+ a consistent 90, he'd have a lot of value. Think somewhere between Gary Pettis and Paul Blair. And I still think it's realistic that he can do that.

Probably yes...in almost every league I can think of, with the obvious exception of the American and National...and the possible exceptions of the International and Pacific Coast.

Looking at the BB's it might seem like Stewart and Gonsalves have the same issues. But I'm not sure they do. When I look at Steward, I see a guy who has stuff, but can't get it over the plate despite trying (and doesn't get totally annihilated when he does throw it over the plate) When I watch Gonsalves, I see a guy without much stuff, who tries hard not to throw it over the plate. Maybe, it's just me, but I remain more optimistic on Stewart. (Which probably means Gonsalves has a long and successful major-league career ahead of him.)

I like many/most of the trades so far. But overall, the new FO seems to be learning on the job. And learning slowly. They certainly don't seem to have accomplished anything yet. Like some others that have posted, I could not care less about the new 'processes' they have put in place...the processes will constantly evolve, what's brilliant today is obsolete tomorrow. Win baseball games at the major league level. And they've gone gone backwards in that regard. It will be an interesting off-season. I guess they have to wait another year on Buxton and Sano. But if Buxton/Sano turn out to be closer to what we've seen in 2018 than what we've seen in brief periods of success...then, we'll end up wishing the FO had pulled the plug and went full re-build mode. This team is frighteningly close to looking at 2020 and still having zero established players that you would build around. On truly good teams, guys like Rosario and Berrios are just nice pieces.

Last night's lineup would probably finish top-half of the International League. Maybe. You just look for interesting players with a chance of being pieces in the future. The other day, we had Stewart...this game?...I don't think Astudillo DH'ing is in the Twins plans...but, Garver continues to look like a major-league hitter and wasn't terrible behind the plate. Twins fandom!

Kirilloff in an extra-base drought. Hope he can snap out of it.

Not arguing that it shouldn't be tried. Not even arguing that it won't be effective. What I am arguing is that the theory is to 'win'/improve on the 3rd pass through the lineup...and that there MAY be a price to pay in the theory regarding the first inning. If the opener was one of the best pitchers on the staff, he'd be a 1-3 (or 4) starter, or one of the very back-end relievers. The very fact nobody is suggesting that you're going to use an opener for 'good' starters acknowledges this. I suspect that the effectiveness of the strategy will be related to the delta in ability between the opener and the 'primary'. If the delta is too big, you'll give up more in the first inning than you'll save in the 5th/6th.

The theory still has holes. The "best era for one inning" pool of pitchers (non-starters) only really consists of your closer...and maybe the 8th-inning guy. Taylor Rogers (as an example) one-inning ERA is irrelevant, because the batters he faces to arrive at that ERA are cherry-picked by the manager. In the opener role it will be the opposite...instead of the manager choosing which batters that pitcher faces, the other team will get to choose who that pitcher faces. Huge difference...I don't think there is much of a question that the opener role will not materially help (and might hurt) 1st-inning ERA's...the 'theory' is that it will help 5th and 6th-inning ERA (3rd-time through lineup) more than it will hurt in the 1st.

Stewart's stuff looks major-league quality. Or maybe, it's just me. There will be some pretty decent data by the end of the year, when looking at opener results across the league. I think it's still a fact that the best pitchers are your starters....at least 1-3 in the rotation are better pitchers than all but maybe your 8th and 9th inning guys who posses maybe one ++ pitch. So, more often than not, you're opener is going to be your 6th, 7th, 8th best pitcher pitching against the top of the other teams order. To make it worse, the other team knows who the opener is going to be. Meanwhile, it does no good to reduce the number of runs surrendered in the second and third innings (or sixth), if you give up even more in the first. Admittedly, I'm hoping it fails. Only because it will be another reason to carry additional pitchers on the 25-man. No mater how you figure it, it's one additional pitcher burned before the game gets into the middle stages. Managers will still want the protection on the back-side for specific match-ups and extra-innings. Guaranteed.

For the record, I wanted Buxton up and playing in September. To me, if that had moved the needle on his 2019 even a little...I would have valued that more than 2023.

Tongue-in-cheek jab at those that are obsessing on how Buxton will react to this down the road. He won't. (If he becomes the player we all hope he becomes)...he'll end up going to a team that offers the best package of $ and winning. Period.

I heard a rumor that Carlos Correa is going to walk when he hits free agency in 2022 because the Astros took the immoral/disrespectful/unnecessary/deplorable/legal-but-still-really-icky action of exercising their leverage by only offering a $4.2M bonus to sign Correa out of Puerto Rico as the top pick. He's ticked that the guy picked AFTER him got $6M to sign with the Twins.

Is it just my imagination, or did an inordinate amount of our top hitting prospects fade in the second half? Some longer/worse than others...but still. Lewis faded pretty dramatically in August...Rooker faded...even Baddoo some. Don't know if I'd call what Gordon and Wade did at Rochester a 'fade'...more like they were overwhelmed by the level...Gordon more so that Wade, but Wade struggled pretty dramatically as well, slugging .336 It will be nice to see Lewis get a chance in the playoffs to end the season with an exclamation point.

I disagree with this decision...but can’t quite muster the sky-is-falling angst that seems to be the theme taking over the thread. If Buxton gets “pissed” and turns into a player that can hit major league pitching and stay on the field...and we control him for an extra year...that’s the downside? He’s currently a 79 OPS+ guy with 1000 PA. If he turns into a good major league hitter, the Twins were probably not going to be able to keep him anyway. If he continues as the hitter he’s been (overall) he’s not valuable enough to obsess about losing. And the ‘nobody will ever sign with us after this’ hysteria, I don’t buy into. It doesn’t work that way.

I said I wanted Buxton up. And durability is a real and valuable quality...independent of effort. There are a ton of players that hustle for my entertainment and play 140-150 games a year.

No. No he hasn’t. You can’t lose something you never had and that was never guaranteed to you. This year of service was never guaranteed. And Buxton is at least partly responsible for being in the position he is to lose it...both in terms of lack of durability and performance. Does Cave deserve losing at-bats to Buxton this fall? Would we be even noticing this if Buxton was the scrappy journeyman 6th-rounder and Cave were the 2nd overall pick whose greatness had been proclaimed since 2014? And yet, I want Buxton up. Life isn’t fair.

And if Buxton had gotten the service year, and decided to sign elsewhere when he hit free agency...despite the Twins having made a ‘fair’ offer and having ‘stuck with him’ during his months/seasons of struggling.... would that then be poor form on the part of Buxton? Or would that be Buxton exercising his rights under the terms of the CBA? It’s a business, has been forever.

I simultaneously want Buxton up, getting as many MLB at-bats as possible....AND at the same time, don’t have a problem with a FO making a decision in a scenario similar to this based on service time. I just wouldn’t have gone this way with Buxton.

The career OPS+ sits at 79. That speaks for itself...and he was looking worse than ever.

This seems to be the consensus. Then again, 8 hits in 5+ innings...you can expect to give up a few runs. Bigger picture, I think Romero is wearing down a bit. Game logs/numbers since about mid-July not particularly fantastic. For the year at Rochester, the K/9 pretty significantly down (6.7 K/9 in the last 10 starts)...missing fewer bats. Probably partly a function of working on lowering the walk rate (mildly successful) by throwing more balls over the plate early in the count. But I do think he's wearing down a bit similar to last year...at about 140 innings overall....basically, the number of innings Jake Odorizzi has already thrown. To me, it's too early to say whether innings/endurance are, or are not, going to be a concern for Romero in 2019.

Oh, come on now...it's not that bad. Think of all the clicking as we rush to disagree with you!

"Above average exit velocity" Just kidding. I like the stories on the long-shots. Keep them coming...I pull for these guys. The harsh reality is that they are long-shots for a reason and will 'fail' 9 times out of 10. But I have no problem toggling between by 'Twins' perspective and my 'big-picture' perspective. For 95+ percent of young men that commit to professional baseball, never getting to the majors...or failing at that level, is the reality. Through that lens, Magill is doing great and I'm happy for him. It's an understatement to say that guys playing in AAA are good players and accomplished a lot in their career. These are true statements.

Yes...I'm not one for "Mauer without concussions take". What about Puckett without glaucoma? What about Oliva without devestating, crippling really, knee injuries? One had his counting stats severely truncated...the other say his productivity numbers nose-dive as he attempted to play for seasons without legs. You are what you are, you did what you did. Joe is not nearly the first to have a 'reason/excuse' (whatever you want to call it) for not having 'even better' numbers. With regard to Carew vs Mauer...both were ridiculously great for a few years. But, Carew sustained the "really goodness" for more seasons than did Joe. I have no problem with people that feel Joe's 2009 was better than Carew's 1977 based on the fact that Joe caught 105 games that season. (Joe only caught 100+ games in 5 seasons.) Joe is to be congratulated for his milestone accomplishments. He's lucky in that he is in a situation where he should be able to complete a full career with his original club...an opportunity Carew would have loved, but wasn't offered in any serious manner. I think Joe appreciates this. FWIW...someone gave Carew credit for a Gold Glove earlier in this thread. He never won one. Wasn't ever really considered that strong of a second-baseman. Good range, a bit stiff around the bag, making the turn, etc. Average hands...which seems ironic given what they did with a bat. He ended up being an above-average first-baseman. Also, Carew missed the better part of an entire season, as well....1970. Early in his career also missed significant games with mandatory/periodic exercises with the Army Reserve (or was it the National Guard)?