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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Ugh. A Diaz analogy for Baddoo. The reason Diaz has 'disappeared' from the top prospect conversation, is that he shouldn't have been in that conversation in the first place (heading into 2018). If Baddoo OPS's 598 at Fort Myers this season (as Diaz did last year), he will have done it as a player with significant defensive value and flexibility, value on the bases, and at the age of 20...as apposed to Diaz who did so as a player with zero defensive flexibility and next-to-zero defensive value, zero value on the bases...and at the age of 21. (Also, Blankenhorn never saw Fort Myers until his age 21 season...spending his age 20 season in Cedar Rapids being about as good offensively as Baddoo was last year at 19) I won't try to predict the future for any of these guys, but I'm guessing most prospect rankers are going to give Baddoo more rope than Blankenhorn and a lot more rope than Diaz.
  2. jkcarew
    Interesting to see the discrepancy of how Rortvedt is viewed...both among the staff and the posters. Probably has to do with how his big offensive improvement from 2018 is interpreted. Can he build on it? How much?. He was drafted young, small and athletic (by catcher standards), and very raw out of a northern climate. Taken 56 overall in the 2nd round. Given his background, I'd say his bat is right about where we could reasonably expect it to be (he's actually 'still' a couple months younger than Jeffers)...right on track to being 'decent'. That would go a long way to usefulness at the major-league level, given he swings it left-handed and given his defensive prowess. I remain a believer.
  3. jkcarew
    Cody leaving the door open for a top-15 Lewin Diaz ranking. Again.
  4. jkcarew
    If there was even one more year on Realmuto's contract, offering Kirilloff would be easily justifiable, IMO. Some of the arguments here to devalue Realmuto...catchers don't play enough game, get hurt too often, decline early, etc....those are arguments that make a guy like Realmuto...healthy and just entering his prime...look even more valuable, not less. As it is, with just the two years...I would expect the Twins to move the line somewhere below their number 2 prospect. But I do hope they are considering all the possibilities.
  5. jkcarew
    Polanco is extremely useful. Switch-hitter than makes contact and can put a little pressure on defenses on the bases. Depending upon how/when/if Lewis/Javier/Gordon arrive (and Schoop departs), Polanco can be a SS, 2B, or super-utility...but he can definitely be an every-day type on a very good team, IMO. Also worth noting that Polanco, given a decent contract scenario (FA in 2023), represents an asset that might return tangible value in a trade.
  6. jkcarew
    There's always a mystery team. The mystery team always has 'great payroll flexibility'. Weird, right? Has the mystery team ever signed a player? I guess there's a first time for everything.
  7. jkcarew
    Well written article. I agree it's the players own fault that things have started to trend against them in recent years. But it should also be noted, the unfavorable trends started from a point at which the MLB Players union had the best deal...and was arguable the most powerful union, not only in professional sports, but that ever existed in any business. Unfortunately for the 'top' major-league players, things won't get materially better any time soon. The only solution for the rank and file is a floor on salaries. That will never happen without a firmer ceiling. Add to that the minor league dilemma. Revenues are very unlikely to grow sufficiently to provide BOTH a materially bigger chunk for the Major leaguers AND a bigger chunk for the minor leaguers. And the major leaguers are going to lose that PR battle all day long. Also, any negotiating approach leveraging arguments that players deploy tools for "maximizing health and performance, maintaining/improving tools and athleticism, and mitigating age- and usage-related decline"....this is a losing strategy from the start. Such tactics will only rationalize shorter seasons and/or more players on a roster. In either case, it will result in LESS money in the individual player's pocket, not more.
  8. jkcarew
    This is pretty much how this organization has always been run, right? You do the best you can with talent evaluation/acquisition (given significant payroll constraints)...but mostly, you just sit back and wait for stars to appear. If some Pucketts, Hrbeks, Gaettis, Mauers, Morneaus, Radkes, Santanas, etc. come along, you have a shot. If they don't come along, you patch stuff together so that it looks like you care, and fans can look forward to the random (and unsustainable) 85-win season when everything falls into place. That's what's happening here. Buying (at a very low cost) another year to see if stars appear. I don't defend it, but I don't look for the Twins under this ownership to become something they've never been. In the meantime, I my only hope is that Falvey and Levine have what it takes to make the stars appear more frequently, more consistently...and soon.
  9. jkcarew
    I would have thought we could throw blind-folded darts at a list of free agents and come up with guys that would improve the 40-man...if not the 25-man. Apparently, I was wrong.
  10. jkcarew
    Funny how the masses don't want to rely solely on drafting and player development to jump-start the franchise... ...after the better part of two decades of horrible drafting and player development.
  11. jkcarew
    I agree that it's almost completely about the money. BUT a small (but not insignificant) part of the money consideration is the market and opportunities beyond salary. And then the part not related to money relates to perceptions on chances to compete for championships. This means that the Twins (currently) would need to offer above-market (materially more than the competition) to get the likes of Machado. It would be nice, if nothing else but from a symbolic standpoint, that we would hear that the Twins tried to do that. Having said that...I'm not as enamored with Machado as most here.
  12. jkcarew
    I'm feeling like this is the optimistic view. The pessimistic view being that nobody in the division maintains even an 84-win pace, and the Twins stand pat through the deadlines (since they're in the "race") playing marginal veterans on short-term deals...and simply waste the year in every possible perspective that can be taken.
  13. jkcarew
    No thanks. Bring in quality, or let the young guys have a crack.
  14. jkcarew
    Thanks for sharing the video. I don't have a clue from a technical standpoint. As always, he looks plenty athletic. Hitting can provide sufficient value to justify moving Lewis to a less important position. But hitting can also justify keeping a 'below average' defending SS at the position. Teams won a lot of games with Jhonny Peralta and Derek Jeter playing SS. It would seem reasonable that Lewis has a chance of being at least that good defensively at the position. In the meantime, keep him at SS in the minors...and like for all prospects, I'll remain more worried about his hitting, almost no matter how well he hits
  15. jkcarew
    The Twins need Astudillo on the 25-man in 2019. Don't know if I could justify it from a pure baseball standpoint. But I'd have him spend the season walking next to Sano. Makes Sano look like Kevin Garnett. As a side benefit, Sano's HR routine would apparently never look in any way egregious, in the event that Astudillo were to hit one.
  16. jkcarew
    Gonsalves strong finish last year (12+ innings) came against KC and Det...both of whom were deploying what amounted to AAAA (to be kind) lineups. And one of the reasons he didn't give up many hits over those innings is that the batters didn't have much incentive to put a ball in play. He walked 9 over those 12 innings. IMO, in 2018 he looked more afraid to throw the ball over the plate than incapable of doing so. That can change. I agree the Twins are in a position to be patient with him in 2019 and that's a good thing.
  17. jkcarew
    An average (optimistically) 34-year-old, right-handed, bullpen arm. I would be angry...but then I realize we have at least 6 40-man spots already being wasted. Falls solidly in the oh-so-familiar 'why not' category of Twins moves over the last couple of years.
  18. jkcarew
    I mean...would we grumble that the Twins are stuck in the dark ages if they identified/acquired/developed the next Dallas Keuchel or Whit Merrifield? I think pursuing the modern ethos is better than being ignorant of it, or dismissing it. But you still need players that are very good or great...at something/anything that has value. The simple act of acquiring/deploying players based on a 'smarter' criteria doesn't mean anything once everyone has adopted that criteria. Well...I agree it should make you something close to average. So, we have that going for us....
  19. jkcarew
    Regarding Larnach and Rooker... the presence of both (and the similar functional profiles) makes each less vital at the moment... if that makes sense. Should Rooker fail to pan out, they have Larnach for essentially the same role, on a similar timeline. And vice versa. This doesn't make sense to me. Wouldn't the same argument knock (for example) Graterol and Romero down in the rankings...or Rosario and Kepler for that matter. Larnach and Rooker don't even hit from the same side of the plate; Rooker more power and Larnach better contact...even their defensive profiles are not an exact match at this point. And they likely enter the season at least two full levels apart in the system (which is how Graterol and Romero finished last season). Seems everyone else was evaluated based on their own individual circumstance...except Larnach and Rooker. Having said that, they're both probably somewhere around the cusp of the top 20...and I'd have Larnach slightly higher than Rooker. Interesting article/concept and I agree with almost all the rankings, Sano being the outstanding exception.
  20. jkcarew
    I like this ranking.
  21. jkcarew
    Agree with the argument for Martinez. And fwiw, it's unlikely that he would have been a worse first-baseman than Frank Thomas if Seattle had chosen (or needed) to play him there at any point. The point being, that we're already honoring those that contributed value only with the bat. Among the names in the article, I vote yet to Halladay, Martinez, Rivera, Mussina and Vizquel. Not sure, maybe at some point to Helton and Jones. No to all the others.
  22. jkcarew
    If Sano consistently hits the way he has shown he can in streaks, he's way too low. Meanwhile, if Buxton becomes a consistently serviceable hitter, only then does he justify where you already have him ranked. Apparently, with one you assume the issues remain, and the other you assume the issues are resolved. Interesting.
  23. jkcarew
    It was tongue-in-cheek. I'm not one that gnashes teeth over potential lasting impact of business decisions...even those I disagree with.
  24. jkcarew
    Can't think of one reason not to make this type of signing with this type of player, given where the Twins are. But... how is it that a potentially needle-moving free agent (and agent) chose the Twins rather than the Astros, etc.??...what with all the history of low-balling and vile treatment of players coming out of this FO. Weird.
  25. jkcarew
    Nick, did you just cite being the worse pitcher in baseball the 3rd time through as a reason to extent Odorizzi? Accumulating marginal starters that are willing to open or bullpen has become a goal? I’m with you on the age and the upside his previous track record suggests. Not so much on your other points...including September statistics garnered in the wasteland that was the 2018 AL Central.
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