jkcarew

Put me down as not a ‘toolsy HS player’ with a questionable hit tool projection.

Agreed. And yes, we’ll see what the next couple of seasons bring. FWIW…Nowlin is almost a full two years ahead of Ryan in terms of level obtained by age. Ryan was a barely average college pitcher until his age 22 season. Nowlin was 21 last year. Probably fair to say Nowlin’s ceiling is at least that of Ryan’s. Probably higher. A long way to go, and the command issue’s are often not overcome. Fingers crossed.

Honestly…it’s probably a couple of guys ‘married’ by the fact that they can both throw 60+ pitches when asked, are on the 40-man, preferably but not necessarily with options, and fit at the bottom of a bullpen. It’s really a ‘mop up’ role in modern game, IMO. If the game is in the balance, you’re going to mix and match with the unprecedented number of arms in active bullpens (and leveraging the options scam on a day to day basis). On the other hand, If the game is out of hand…or you’ve somehow managed to burn up everybody despite all the arms and gaming of options…then, you have a guy wear it for the team. That’s the modern ‘long’ guy, (even more so, given additional restrictions on scenarios where Nick Gordon can bail you out). I could see Dobnak being one…but not until a pitcher goes on the 60-day. I imagine if they did this a line would be drawn somewhere below the guys that they absolutely want to be getting regular starts throughout 2023 for development (i.e., Varland, Headrick). Plenty to pick from.

"Solano has been a consistently solid hitter...(and) a line drive machine..." Honestly, I feel like I'm in the twilight zone reading writers on this site regarding Solano. My word, he was signed for $2M after camp started. He's a 92 OPS+ career hitter. He's 35. Last year, which was one of his recent 'outstanding' seasons, he was at 97. I have a hard time believing his signing has much of anything to do with first base or DH...other than break-glass in-game scenarios. I think if Kirilloff is out, he's still not anything too close to part of a 1B/DH "plan".

Forgot to compare the managers. It's a miss-match. Now, admittedly, I can't tell you exactly what a miss-match in managers adds up to over the coarse of 162 games. But it's something.

If nothing else, I like that the pairing don't completely mirror each other's strengths and weaknesses like last year. A little more opportunity to mix and match depending upon the situation.

The biggest blow to Celestino's immediate future with the club was the signing of Taylor. These two are completely redundant (at least at this point in Celestino's development). You're not going to play both...just no way to justify that from an offensive standpoint. The best thing that can happen for Celestino in 2023 is for him to improve the hit tool in AAA. If he can, even a little bit, he has a decent chance of being back in that role in 2024.

If that's the way we evaluate it...Cincinnatti has only gotten 100 PA, and a 650 OPS out of the trade so far. How do we know yet if that's "a lot"? I have no problem trading two of at least 5 (more like 6) 22-26 year-old hitting prospects we were sitting on that are vying for playing time at 3rd base or first base. Don't know if we traded the correct 2...but we certainly don't know yet. Not trading some of that log jam for pitching was the worse option they could have taken, IMO.

Also, tip-of-the-hat to Pagan who seems like one of the only guys this spring that showed up already in mid-season form. Remains a lock as long as those photos of Rocco are in a safe place.

I'm with Nick...and it continues to surprise me on the number who have drank the cool-aid on Solano and his ability to "mash" left-handed pitching. Solano's carrer OPS against lefties is 711. 711. It's higher in small samples in the past couple of years...hitting in the bandbox that is Great American and with an unsustainably high BABiP. Farmer is significantly better than Solano against lefties...but for context, he's slightly below Kyle Garlick in career OPS against lefties...and again having played basically half his career in Great American. Useful, but I don't know if I'd call it 'mashing' or 'killing' left-handed pitching. Farmer was the choice, love the defensive flexibility, but still don't get both he and Solano. I'd so rather have Lee brought up the instance there's a long-term injury on the infield to play every day. Meanwhile, I assume some of these middling veterans are gone the instant this team is out of the race (hoping that doesn't happen, but if/when it does).

We're dreaming to think that Buxton is going to appear in 85% of Twins games. Someone needs to make a good argument why this year would be the year before I can move to such an assumption. But, ok, I'll play along.... The 15% he sits need to be against right-handed starters only (if he's 'healthy' there should be zero exceptions here.) The 15% that he's the DH need to be against left-handed starters (rare exceptions)...not only because he isn't great against righties...but because the guy who is most likely to enter the lineup because of his move to DH is Taylor...of whom, you want to maximize his AB's against lefties. In the games he's sitting, HE AND ROCKO, need to be willing to pinch-hit him late...particularly against lefties...if/when the situation screams for it and a W is to be had. If these things came to fruition in 2023 there's no doubt it would be a good outcome for the Twins. Much better than my current assumption of Buxton's role in 2023.

His rookie year was similar to Machado's, but you can't project age 24 anywhere near how you can project 20. And Machado is great at defense, and Miranda is the opposite of great, so you can't compare them that way. So, as you acknowledged, unfair. IMO, narrative/story here is much more about his future with the club. Regardless of the rookie year, he has to take another significant step offensively to have unique value as a first-baseman. Still, his floor seems good enough to be a contributor on a true contender, but maybe not a big needle-mover. He might not have a ton of time to get nearer the ceiling based on the quality and quantity coming up behind him (though, I suppose Kirilloff's health could change that outlook).

Love the Goltz analogies. Back in the day when you could be a 5th round draft pick out of high school (Goltz)...and then choose to go to Moorhead State!! Gotta love it. Both Goltz and Radke had at least one pitch (Radke, two) that was way better than anything Varland has so far. I tend not to be quite as high on Varland as most here. Velocity is NOT his problem. It's command of the fastball, and questionable quality of secondary pitches. He's proved me pretty wrong so far...but I still see a reliever. In the meantime, fun watching him overachieve.

Tbh...the audio without the video would be perfectly acceptable. Just sayin. But the other way around...

I think he's playing in the infield because as of now he would be the preferred longer-term fill-in on the infield against right-handed pitching. In the event of a longer-term infield injury, you have the following options against right-handed pitching: Farmer (650 career OPS against righties), Solano (696)...or Gordon (758, and 793 last year in his first full season). And there's a whole lot more right-handed pitching than left. The org has left-hand OF options, while without Gordon, Polanco is the only left-handed option in the infield (exclude 1B, whoever that is). I realize, the splits for right-handed batters doesn't tend to be huge, and the 650-700 OPS range isn't complete disaster...but for a team that figures to struggle a bit to score runs in the first place, if you have to take Correa or Polanco out of the lineup for an extended time, it could get pretty bleak hoping for Farmer or Solano to spark anything sustainable playing every day and taking a ton of at-bats against right-handed pitching. This is why I still haven't heard a really good explanation for acquiring BOTH Farmer and Solano. It's not like Solano is considered a defensive wizard-like middle infielder at this point. I guess we'll see what happens.

Or think Kenta Maeda...including 2020 Kenta Maeda. The average would include relievers. So, I'd bet the average MLB starter fastball was less than 93.9mph. And regardless, the article states he's already throwing his fastball 91-94.

91-94 (as quoted in the article) is very close to current mlb average. Also, Kenta Maeda. Still, I'm not saying he (or anyone) wouldn't benefit from more velo...just that I don't see why that would be a priority yet...and I hope it would not come at the expense of stamina/durability so that he can get a good look as a starter.

“His fastball sits between 91-94 mph and tops out at 96 mph with some riding life. It’s likely the Twins will work to add some more velocity as he spends more time in the organization” Why is that likely? You’re probably right, but it makes me scratch my head nonetheless. If they want him to have a chance to be a starter that can consistently go at least 5-6 innings, why make squeezing more velocity out of him a priority? He’s 6’-0”…I can’t imagine there’s a ton more velocity projection in a starting scenario. 91+ sound be fine if he commands this and a couple other offerings. And that’s what I would assume they would focus on first? Additional fastball velocity would be a much much lower priority in my mind, at least until the time they were to give up and convert him to full-time reliever.

Hard to compare IMO. International signings happen at 16 years of age, HS signings at 18, and College signings typically at 21 these days. So the opportunity is different. International guy like Jorge Polanco was getting called up at 20…some of the international superstars well earlier than that. Top HS guys, (extreme outliers like Bryce Harper aside), usually don’t make it any quicker than Mauer or Correa, who made their debuts shortly before turning 21.

I push back against the idea that the Twins have been “aggressive” or “moved quickly” with Lee. This is what is SUPPOSED to happen when you draft a college player projected to be a top-5 pick. This is his age 22 year…a very typical year for “greats” to break in whether college players or not. College juniors drafted this high…especially position guys…are going to have the expectation of breaking in at age 23 at latest. It can take longer, but there should be no reason to EXPECT it to take longer. The only thing unique here is that he’s a Twin, is healthy, and has so far solidly met those expectations. 😀

If I had to pick one… the Chicago Guardians

Interesting that Julien didn’t play anything other than 2B all year last year…no OF, no 3B…nothing but second. Seems like another indication that the club feels he’s very limited defensively. But if he’s going to be a 25-30 HR guy (which seems somewhat realistic based on current trajectory) can he be also considered as a potentially solid defensive first baseman? If I was FO, I would sell high on one of Miranda, Lee, Lewis, Martin, Julien, Gordon, or Polanco in the next 16 months. Honestly, maybe two. Even if one of these is considered the 1B of the future, that makes 7 names for 4-5 roles: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, infield utility, outfield utility. Kirilloff would be an 8th name. I know depth is a good thing and injuries can be counted on. Still, seems like this isn’t maximizing capital. Not urgent yet, can see how Lewis/Kirilloff respond…but I think things look much differently next year at this time.

Nice article… But there was only one player that appeared in the Twin Cities and broke the color barrier for his club…and it wasn’t Mays or Campanella. In July of 1959, a 25-year-old Pumpsie Green left the Minneapolis Millers (and an 882 OPS) to become the first African American to ever don the uniform of the Boston Red Sox. Little know truth.

Agree with the assessment on Solano vs Buxton for leading off against lefties. Just hoping we don’t see another 50-pt drop in the OPS in this, what will be his age-35, season. Also, I’m still confused about who we are sitting when we play Solano for a left-handed starter…I guess it would be our “left-handed first baseman”…whoever that is.

443 PA last year. The only way he gets more PA this year is if the “no other choice” scenario plays out in the outfield forcing him to play against left-handed pitching. I do believe he’s still developing as a hitter. So, might not be a terrible thing. But, in 2022 it was a terrible thing.