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  • Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Countdown: 11-15


    Nick Nelson

    In the past we have annually highlighted our Top 10 Twins prospects, but because the system is currently so loaded with quality talent, we decided to expand the scope of our list this year, profiling the 20 best players on Minnesota's farm.

    Earlier this week, Seth ran through our choices for 16 through 20, and today I'll take a look at the players we ranked 11 through 15. These players narrowly missed out on making our Top 10, but any of them could very easily appear in that range for many other organizations throughout the league.

    One-by-one individual profiles for the Top 10 Prospects will kick off next week.

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    15. Taylor Rogers - LHP

    Age: 24

    2014 Stats (AA): 145 IP, 11-6, 3.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 113/37 K/BB

    ETA: 2016

    You won't often see Rogers mentioned among the system's most promising young arms, because he lacks the high-end velocity and gaudy strikeout numbers of some others, but if you ask folks within the organization about pitchers who can help the Twins in the near future, his name is going to come up. The lefty was an 11th-round pick out of the University of Kentucky in 2011, and he continues to advance through the minor-league ranks while showing exceptional poise and polish on the mound. Many questioned how Rogers would perform at the higher levels, but he showed a lot in the Eastern League last year by allowing only four homers in 145 innings while boosting his K-rate. The biggest question is whether his high-80s arsenal will prove too hittable in the majors, especially against right-handed batters.

    14. Adam B. Walker - OF

    Age: 23

    2014 Stats (A+): .246/.307/.436, 25 HR, 94 RBI, 78 R, 9/14 SB

    ETA: 2016

    In terms of pure power, Walker ranks with the likes of sluggers such as Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas. He hit some legendary moonshots last year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and won the league's All-Star Home Run Derby contest in June. His father was an NFL running back and his mother was a star college athlete, so the muscular 6'4" Walker has the bloodlines and build that you love to see. Unfortunately, while stepping up to High-A ball, the outfielder saw drops in batting average, OBP and slugging, which many anticipated due to his poor strike zone control and high whiff rate. He'll need to become a more complete hitter in order to have a future as a big-league regular, but the pure power alone makes him worth tracking.

    13. Stephen Gonsalves - LHP

    Age: 20

    2014 Stats (Rk/A): 65.2 IP, 4-3, 3.02 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 70/21 K/BB

    ETA: 2018

    In 94 professional innings, Gonsalves has struck out 109 hitters and allowed only 72 hits. It's safe to say that the big 6'5" left-hander has been overwhelming the opposition at the lower levels of the minors, and he doesn't even turn 21 until July. There's not much to quibble about with his results so far, and as a tall southpaw with improving velocity, his projectibility is off the charts. So really, all that's holding Gonsalves back at this point is his limited sample size. If he can put in a full season and maintain his performance in High-A, he'll surely vault into the Top 10 next year and maybe even the Top 5.

    12. Max Kepler - OF/1B

    Age: 22

    2014 Stats (A+): .264/.333/.393, 5 HR, 59 RBI, 53 R, 6/8 SB

    ETA: 2017

    When the Twins signed the Berlin native as a 16-year-old back in 2009 with an $800,000 bonus, Kepler was considered to be perhaps the best baseball talent ever to come over from Europe. But it was always known that developing him into a big-league player was going to be a long process. Kepler needed to adapt to living and playing in the United States, and sure enough, he's had his growing pains while rising through the minors. All along, though, he has managed to post solid numbers, and 2014 was another step in the right direction. Although his production was less than dazzling, his AVG/OBP/SLG were all above the Florida State League averages (.257/.325/.371), and the overall numbers mask his second-half improvement: From July 1st through the end of the season, Kepler hit .303/.359/.442 with 19 of his 31 extra-base hits. The biggest stride for the young outfielder was his success against lefty pitchers -- after hitting .117 with a hideous .365 OPS versus southpaws in 2013, he improved to .273 and .691 last year.

    11. Lewis Thorpe - LHP

    Age: 19

    2014 Stats (A): 71.2 IP, 3-2, 3.52 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 80/36 K/BB

    ETA: 2018

    Thorpe sneaked into our Top 10 last year, and based solely on performance, he would have found himself there again this time around. Thorpe had already established himself as a rare commodity with a mid-90s fastball whizzing in from the left side, and he further solidified his legitimacy last year by heading to the Midwest League -- where at 18 he was the youngest player to throw a pitch -- and piling up 80 strikeouts over 71 innings. Thorpe struggled a bit with his control, issuing 4.5 BB/9 to go along with five hit batsmen and eight wild pitches, but the bigger concern is his health. Thorpe felt some pain in his elbow late in the season, and an MRI revealed a UCL sprain. For now, the Twins are taking a "wait and hope for the best" approach, but as we all know, that doesn't always work out. If the young southpaw ends up needing Tommy John surgery, it would obviously set him back substantially.

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    Some of us older individuals who remember watching a certain "big-boned" centerfielder might disagree... at least for the time being.

     

    Towards the end of his career, even my Mom used to say "he better hope he hits it over the wall"

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    Thorpe did come to the Twin Cities last Fall to get the elbow checked out so hopefully everything is fine. You just never know with those UCL's though.

     

    I thought it was Keith Law I saw a blurb from, but I haven't been able to track it down again. But there was something I read that said that it ended up being less than originally feared, and he should be ready to go. Of course we won't know on that for sure until it happens, but I was pleasantly surprised to read that. Just wish I could find it again.

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    I guess I don't embrace the idea of pitchers being devalued because they throw low 90's or high 80's.   There is so much more to pitching than velocity and thinking a guy has a ceiling of DeVries or Fox just because they have the same velocity is misguided in my opinion.    Nick Bcakburn in his last lousy year was low to mid 90's with his fast ball but his command wasn't great and his movement was poor.    In contrast the last two times the Giants have won the WS their average velocity as a team was 90.8 which was average for the entire league and they threw the fastball less than any other team.   I love a good fastball but give me a guy with command and "stuff".   If a guy is doing that well and striking out people at that rate then he is different from those that have his same velocity that are not doing as well.   Its true that it might not play as well in the majors but you might as well compare him to Maddux or Buehrle rather than DeVries or Fox.

     

    Low velocity wouldn't bother me if they still generated strikeouts. 

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    "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect" - Everyone ever.

     

    Max Kepler is the most exciting name on this list for me after Lewis Thorpe. Both seem to have huge upside/potential. I want to see them succeede.

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    He's 19.  Is there really concern that he's going to stop developing?  Add a pitch when he's 20, add another when he's 21, fiddle around with a fourth pitch while he's 22-23, and you've got something.  No, that's not how development works, on a clock like that, but the point is he's got time like any 19 year old prospect does.  A year's a long time at this age.  He has to make use of the time of course.

     

    With a birthday of July 8, 1994, he's actually 20, and closer to 21 than 19.

     

    His current repertoire is only going to carry him so far in the minors. I still like his potential a lot, but without at minimum, an average major league breaking ball, his value as a major league starter is pretty  problematic.

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    A little late to the party, not sure if someone has made a similar point here or not, but in the overall scheme of things, I think you could say that Thorpe and Gonsalves are as valuable or important a prospect as anyone in the system.

     

    That's a lot to throw on the shoulders of kids so young, and still low on the milb totem pole, but perhaps the hardest thing to ever find in baseball is a true, top of the rotation LHSP. And while it is admittedly early to project stardom for either of these talented kids, neither of them is a LH, soft tossing, crafty college senior picked in round 23 performing well in the rookie league.

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    I guess the idea of saying Gonsalves  projects as a 3 is pretty suspect in my opinion.  He has the results along with a good fast/change combo.  He's also done it at a young age relative to league and has the eyeball metrics too (mid 90s fb from the left side).  That strikes me as a ceiling much higher than a slightly above average pitcher.  Whether he gets there or not is why he's in the low teens as opposed to the top 5.  He's no sure thing, for many of the reasons cited.  But to me, he's got 1/2 potential, and I'd have him rated much higher than Taylor Rogers.

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    I think a #3 pitcher isn't just slightly above average.  Most relievers are pitchers who aren't good enough to start. They have to be included into the mix.  A typical #3 pitcher is a quality pitcher.

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