Twins Daily 2021 Top Prospects: #3 Trevor Larnach

Larnach is a stud. He has the potential to have the discipline of Arraez combined with the power of Kepler. I expect him to start in AAA and pound the door down by the summer. He's one of very few prospects who would legitimately shock me if he ended up being a bust.

Call me old school but I still like guys with good to great plate discipline to have a greater chance to make the jump to MLB because even if they are struggling to get hits they are not an automatic out when taking walks.  Also making the pitcher work is an underrated skill in the home run or bust age of baseball.

While I understand Law's concern, Larnach is a guy always looking to improve.  Inside might be his weakness, and it is a weakness of lot's of MLB players, but Law doesn't seem to account for the great success he has had in the league to this point either.  With the good eye at the plate I think Larnach will be just fine.

I have been excited about Larnach for a long time.  Will have to see how he does this year but I think 2022 is his year for the big team.  I think he starts in AA this year as we have Kirilloff, Broxton and Garlick likely for AAA.  There seems to be a shortage of outfielders for AA as I only see Contrares and Whitefield there with Larnach making number 3.  That could easily change but I think they start him in AA as I think he only had half a year there and once Kirilloff moves then I think Larnach moves to AAA.

I love this kid, and have loved him ever since he carried Oregon State to the College world Series title. 

He got every big hit the Beavers needed.

He and Kiriloff will be hitting #3 and #5 for years in the Twins lineup.

I like everything I've read about Larnach. His biggest problem is that Kiriloff his first in line and Rooker has already come up. And then they have sabato and Wallner to behind him. I just hope he is given the chance to prove himself.

I like everything I've read about Larnach. His biggest problem is that Kiriloff his first in line and Rooker has already come up. And then they have sabato and Wallner to behind him. I just hope he is given the chance to prove himself.

I want Larnach to be a big time stud just so I can laugh in Keith Law's face for not including him in his top 100. 

Kiriloff, Rooker & Larnach.  Could the Twins hit the jackpot with all 3 ??  

Larnach is a great hitter. It'd have to be a super sweet deal for the Twins to trade Larnach. The Twins love their big bats. I imagine that they'll find a place for him next year.

By the end of 2021, we will have a great preview of all the young studs that will be winning for the next decade. AK, Rook, Larnach, Lewis and Sabato. Finding a place to play them all in the field is going to be a huge challenge!

I remember when Musgrove was traded to the Pods, there were reports that Twins were also interested but Pirates asked for Larnach and Twins turned it down.  Just a rumor but wonder what others think about wisdom of trading from area of strength in the organization for someone like Musgrove?  What if Larnach could fetch a pitcher like Sonny Gray or being the top trade piece for Luis Castillo?  How about one of the Dodger studs like May or Urias?  Would this keep the window open longer?

I bet we see him this year when Buxton gets hurt, or if Kirolloff struggles.  I am confused on why hitting opposite field is a bad thing though?  Some of the best hitters all time were opposite field hitters.  

If pitchers just pound him inside he will have to adjust to that, but to me being able to hit opposite field is a good thing.  Being dead pull generally can be a bad thing because pitcher like to pitch away a lot more than inside due to risk of hitting batter, and pull HR tend to be easier too.  

If he cannot adjust to inside pitches that could be a long term issue, but short term I am not concerned. 

Great problem for the Twins to have. But I don't want to see the Twins trade Larnach until they know whether he or AK is going to be the better player.

Would be a shame to trade Larnach and then have him explode into a superstar while AK is merely a solid starter (I expect AK to be better than average). Heck, maybe they both will become stars...we can hope, can't we?

One of these LH bats will need to move.  How about sending Kirilloff and Balazovic to Colorado for Marquez? They might do something like this right now.  If Kirilloff became an AS, we could just use the Coors-effect to help settle our trader's remorse.

Kiriloff, Rooker & Larnach.  Could the Twins hit the jackpot with all 3 ??  

The key is going to not trade the best one

Always fun to project the futures of these guys, and slotting them into future rosters in a "best-case scenario" way.    It always appeared that Eddie being non-tendered was AKs invitation to the big leagues.    Simmons on a one-year deal says the same (theoretically) about Lewis; Nellie's (probably) last year with the Twins might be the opening for a lot of guys - Larnach, Sabato, Rooker, Wallner - depending on how each performs in 2021.

But there's no room for all of them in the short term, and by that I mean 2021 or 2022.    Byron has 2 years left, barring an extension, and Celestino (in my eyes) seems the heir apparent if we cannot extend Buxton.    The only available slots for slugging corner OF/1B/DH guys appears to be 4th OF (Cave's spot now), DH, or a Sano trade (or Sano playing DH and one of the above sliding into 1B, though I like Miguel's defense there right now).

Given that, like the FO, I don't want to get rid of any of our prospects, how do you rank those guys to slide into the openings we do have?  Larnach first?    Then Sabato, Wallner, Rooker?   2021 is going to be very consequential in that competition.

No such thing as too many good players. 

I remember when Musgrove was traded to the Pods, there were reports that Twins were also interested but Pirates asked for Larnach and Twins turned it down.  Just a rumor but wonder what others think about wisdom of trading from area of strength in the organization for someone like Musgrove?  What if Larnach could fetch a pitcher like Sonny Gray or being the top trade piece for Luis Castillo?  How about one of the Dodger studs like May or Urias?  Would this keep the window open longer?

It's a good question but trades are complicated.  The decision to trade is based on so many different factors like Present value vs. future value.  The odds of prospects even having future value.  How many years of control are you giving up how many are you getting back, the money involved, etc. etc.

In this case given what Pittsburgh got in the trade it would have taken more than Larnach to get that deal done.  Larnach would have probably been the headliner but they probably would have needed to include someone like Sands and Rijo or Vallimont plus a throw in to get the deal done.

To me that is a lot to give up for two years of Joe Musgrove for a SSS breakthrough in 2020.  The years before that he looks replacement level to me.  If he truly has turned the corner maybe but that is a ton of future value to give up for 2 years.  The Pads can probably afford it as they had the number one farm in baseball and needed more pitching depth.

Personally I think the Twins did just fine with Shoemaker and Happ.  Both guys look like they should be as good or better than Musgrove and they gave up Zero prospects to get them.  In the end Musgrove has only one more year of control compared to those guys as well.  Maybe I am wrong but I don't feel like they missed out.  Remember they have 5 young starters of which a couple should be looking for spots soon.

Just because you have a surplus of talent somewhere doesn't mean you should just trade it for anything.  I believe the Ramos\Matt Capps trade taught us that.  Be patient be smart IMO.

The Twins could have done that trade and justified it just like the Padres but I think they did the right thing by waiting.

I remember when Musgrove was traded to the Pods, there were reports that Twins were also interested but Pirates asked for Larnach and Twins turned it down.  Just a rumor but wonder what others think about wisdom of trading from area of strength in the organization for someone like Musgrove?  What if Larnach could fetch a pitcher like Sonny Gray or being the top trade piece for Luis Castillo?  How about one of the Dodger studs like May or Urias?  Would this keep the window open longer?

Pitchers like Musgrove - at his salary - don't come along all that often. The FO obviously knows better about the players and the proposed trade terms. In general, I have no problem trading a potential star corner OF for a young, above-average SP at this point. You trade from excess for areas of need. 

Me continuing to pretend I know anything:

1] The size, strength and stroke are all there for him to develop real power. He seems to have a good eye. Sounds a lot like Kirilloff doesn't it? I see no reason why he shouldn't continue to adapt through experience to be at least a little better at pulling the ball. But as stated by others previously, there is nothing wrong with having the ability to hit rockets to the opposite field and center field as well.

2] I've never heard anything that he can't be a solid defensive RF. Maybe not as good as Kepler, but solid. Reports are he has the arm for RF. Kirilloff is probably a little better athlete with a little more speed...he played some CF in HS and I believe a little when initially signed...and might be a better fit in LF where I believe there is a little more ground to cover.

3] While trades may yet happen, I've been pleased the FO seems to have fit team needs without trading talent at this point, even though there appears to be a pending logjam in the OF. And I'm starting to wonder if there might not be room for everyone with Cruz gone, possibly, after 2021. Kirilloff in LF, Larnach in RF, (though I'm sure each could play the other corner just fine), Rooker able to fill in at both corners as well as DH and 1B, where Kiriloff could also fill in. You still have Kepler in RF and backing up CF. There could absolutely be room for everyone rotating between 3 1/2 spots in the field and DH.

Not saying that's the way it's going to play out but it's sure interesting to contemplate. The monkey wrench may be if Donaldson has to shift to 1B or DH. Hopefully that is not the case.

I want Larnach to be a big time stud just so I can laugh in Keith Law's face for not including him in his top 100. 

I hope you laughed at TD for not having Arraez in their top ten the years before he came up.