Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: #7 Jhoan Duran

Don’t know that I’d have a guy with Duran’s track record...and this far from the show, ranked ahead of Thorpe (and maybe one or two others). But I’ll say this...the kid looks the part physically. Was never anywhere near 9k/9 his first 3 years of pro ball. But then all of a sudden last year happened. Maybe a bit of a late bloomer as the strength finally catches up with the length? I hope so.

Great to see one of trade returns ranked this high, and seems like Duran has great pure stuff that is extremely projectable, which is the basis for a lot of proscpet lists. But let me repost what I posted on the forum when Tom put up spotlight article on Duran, now that we see TD has Gonsalves ranked #11 and Duran at #7:

“I looked up Gonsalves’ minor league numbers:

108 games started, 599IP, 2.42ERA, 1.10WHIP, 9.5/3.6 K/BB.

Duran’s numbers: 54GS, 259IP, 4.02ERA, 1.32WHIP, 8.0/3.2K/BB.

Gonsalves had 4 mediocre starts in the big leagues and people have written him off. Not to throw shade on Duran, like I said I hope he turns into a great prospect for the Twins and sustains the improvement. I would have Gonsalves ahead of Duran on prospect lists, though. He could turn into a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. Duran is a long way from becoming that.

I see that you have Gonsalves ahead of Duran, Tom. But two of the four of you have Gonsalves ranked lower than Duran. I think that Gonsalves’ mediocre debut shouldn’t tarnish his outlook. Remember Berrios...”

This looks like a guess ranking based on stuff.  Have no problem with it, he will either be in the top 10 if he can harness his stuff this year or way down next year if he can't.  This is what rankings are about.

It is great to see this many pitching prospects with great upside in the system.  Since success rate should be between 20 - 50% numbers do matter.

Great to see one of trade returns ranked this high, and seems like Duran has great pure stuff that is extremely projectable, which is the basis for a lot of proscpet lists. But let me repost what I posted on the forum when Tom put up spotlight article on Duran, now that we see TD has Gonsalves ranked #11 and Duran at #7:

“I looked up Gonsalves’ minor league numbers:

108 games started, 599IP, 2.42ERA, 1.10WHIP, 9.5/3.6 K/BB.

Duran’s numbers: 54GS, 259IP, 4.02ERA, 1.32WHIP, 8.0/3.2K/BB.

Gonsalves had 4 mediocre starts in the big leagues and people have written him off. Not to throw shade on Duran, like I said I hope he turns into a great prospect for the Twins and sustains the improvement. I would have Gonsalves ahead of Duran on prospect lists, though. He could turn into a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. Duran is a long way from becoming that.

I see that you have Gonsalves ahead of Duran, Tom. But two of the four of you have Gonsalves ranked lower than Duran. I think that Gonsalves’ mediocre debut shouldn’t tarnish his outlook. Remember Berrios...”

I understand your argument, but at some point there has to be a balance between stuff and statistics. I was disappointed to see that Gonsalves tops out at 91, doesn't have pitches that can strike out MLB hitters, and also has poor command. It's not that I've totally given up on him, but he looks to be a 5th starter or a decent reliever if things go right in my eyes. He's done a great job in the minors, but unlike Berrios I don't know if his stuff will let him be more than a AAAA pitcher.

Conversely, if Duran can put things together, he has the stuff to be a great starter. I could see him being a #2 starter if everything goes right, though mostly throughout his career, it hasn't gone right. 

Continue to be more than pleased with what the FO did last July.  They totally changed the quality and depth of the entire organization.  Have to believe they will use those bullets over the next couple years.  Whether that is by continued trading down a few levels and out a few years or by enhancing a trade for a MLB ready asset remains to be seen.  The important thing is they stockpiled a lot of assets and this kid just may be the cream of the crop.

I understand your argument, but at some point there has to be a balance between stuff and statistics. I was disappointed to see that Gonsalves tops out at 91, doesn't have pitches that can strike out MLB hitters, and also has poor command. It's not that I've totally given up on him, but he looks to be a 5th starter or a decent reliever if things go right in my eyes. He's done a great job in the minors, but unlike Berrios I don't know if his stuff will let him be more than a AAAA pitcher.

 

Conversely, if Duran can put things together, he has the stuff to be a great starter. I could see him being a #2 starter if everything goes right, though mostly throughout his career, it hasn't gone right. 

Problem is that not so long ago Gonsalves was thought of as a for sure #3 and possibly a #2. Now he's no more than a AAAA? We so quickly discard one prospect for another and the result is we continue to "hope" that our time to arrive is 2-3 more years down the line.

Gonsalves was highly touted by the org and if he becomes just another forgot about prospect we need to know why.

Problem is that not so long ago Gonsalves was thought of as a for sure #3 and possibly a #2. Now he's no more than a AAAA? We so quickly discard one prospect for another and the result is we continue to "hope" that our time to arrive is 2-3 more years down the line.

 

Gonsalves was highly touted by the org and if he becomes just another forgot about prospect we need to know why.

You're not likely to find a statement from any of the credentialed prospect pundits that describes Gonsalves' ceiling as higher than a #3 and certainly not a sure thing at that. Most have described his ceiling as back end. I doubt anyone in the organization pasted a #2 target on kid's back either. 

There's a very good chance that Duran, who is being touted by us, not by the organization, will cease being a darling just like we curbed our infatuation for Gonsalves. Let's just remember who does the touting around here. 

I think he needs to buy an "O".

Prospect rankings, however, typically have very little to do with the stats, though they do obviously factor in. 

 

And, I would hope people have not given up on Gonsalves at all. 

 

But Duran's upside is top of the rotation starter. That's why I rank him higher. That's'why I have Graterol ranked higher. 

Is there some way, Seth, that you all can factor in the probability of player X reaching his ceiling.  Kind of like going to Vegas and throwing the dice, knowing there is a 20% probability of X happening and a 30% probability of Y happening.  

Not all potential front of the rotation starters are the same.  You may think that Graterol, for example, has a 30% chance of reaching his ceiling.  Whereas, you may think that Duran has a 10% chance of reaching his ceiling with both having ceilings of an ACE.  

Has anyone attempted to do something like this?

Problem is that not so long ago Gonsalves was thought of as a for sure #3 and possibly a #2. Now he's no more than a AAAA? We so quickly discard one prospect for another and the result is we continue to "hope" that our time to arrive is 2-3 more years down the line.

 

Gonsalves was highly touted by the org and if he becomes just another forgot about prospect we need to know why.

The reason why is because that's baseball. The rule of thumb I use is, if you have 10 top starting pitching prospects, 25-30% will make it. Pitching is a numbers game. I learned that many years ago from Andy MacPhail.

Prospect status isn't just about stats. A lefty with low velo can succeed in lower levels if they have 2 decent offspeed and control, which Gonsalves has. I'd put them the same spot if I could. I'm still hopeful for Gonsalves but the "remember berrios" thing isn't relevant because they are complete opposites

It's relevant because 80-90% of starting pitcher's rookie debuts are similar to Gonsalves. Our very own Gibson, May, and Berrios's debuts were not dissimilar. It's part of the process.

No one thought he was that good.

He was the third best Twin's prospect at the beginning of last year.

Top 7 or so in 2016.

Somebody must have thought that, or the Twins prospects have been WAY over rated the last few year?

Our rankings:

 

Seth (6), Nick (8), Tom (13), Cody (7).

Curious what he has changed or gotten better in the Twins organization that he wasn't that highly rated in Arizona but is here?

Hoping it is more than he was traded for Escobar or the 7 inning no hitter he threw.

It's especially interesting to peek at these rankings against Keith Law's recent list; there's a pretty significant divergence all over the place (except for the top 2). Law is calling Duran a one pitch guy and definitely sees him as a reliever.

I wonder how much of the differences are based in proximity (TD guys might have more granular detail) and how much in preference (everyone may value things differently in prospects). But KLaw definitely agrees more with Tom on Duran...

He was the third best Twin's prospect at the beginning of last year.

Top 7 or so in 2016.

Somebody must have thought that, or the Twins prospects have been WAY over rated the last few year?

Nope, no expert has ever thought Gonsalves was a front end guy. Maybe a few fans did.

When Gonzo was 3rd in TD's rankings, the system was at best a top 10 system. This year, it's a top 5ish system. In retrospect, his #3 ranking was probably generous.

He fell for two main reasons: one, because a whole slew of prospects have surged for legitimate reasons, Graterol being a prime case in point, and two, he's probably lost some luster because of his rough start in MLB and the things his debut illuminated to reinforce the expert views that he probably settles in as a back end guy if he fixes his remaining skill deficiencies.

I think you'd be reaching for something that's not there to conclude what you're suggesting.

He was a BA top 100 prospect in 2017 and 2018... so if he was overrated, it was by all... but I also think that leads to the point that we need to be a bit patient with him. Not every prospect hits the ground running (see Berrios, Jose). There's still time for him to put it together.

I think his stuff would play just fine.    In 2017 he was sitting at 2.4 BB/9.   In 2018 it was 4.8 in the minors and 8.00 in the majors.    Sandy Koufax couldn't succeed at 8 walks per 9.    I thought his arm was live with decent stuff (granted I was just judging by the TV screen) but he was all over the place.     I still have hopes that he will be better than just back of rotation but that walk rate has to get below 3.    

It's especially interesting to peek at these rankings against Keith Law's recent list; there's a pretty significant divergence all over the place (except for the top 2). Law is calling Duran a one pitch guy and definitely sees him as a reliever.

 

I wonder how much of the differences are based in proximity (TD guys might have more granular detail) and how much in preference (everyone may value things differently in prospects). But KLaw definitely agrees more with Tom on Duran...

Sometimes I hate how Law stunts my optimism on certain prospects but I have learned he is right more often than wrong.  Duran is young and has a good fastball but like most young pitchers his secondaries are suspect.  So I can see where Law is coming from.  Also it isn't often that we are treated to a minor league no hitter for seven innings by one of our pitchers so I think seeing what we saw makes us more optimistic than most.

We will just have to wait and see what happens.  Law did not see Berrios being a top of the rotation starter this early either.  It took a lot of development before Law came around on him.  Duran has the fastball so a little development and he can be a top of the rotation piece as well.  Just have to hope he can figure things out.

Nope, no expert has ever thought Gonsalves was a front end guy. Maybe a few fans did.

 

When Gonzo was 3rd in TD's rankings, the system was at best a top 10 system. This year, it's a top 5ish system. In retrospect, his #3 ranking was probably generous.

 

He fell for two main reasons: one, because a whole slew of prospects have surged for legitimate reasons, Graterol being a prime case in point, and two, he's probably lost some luster because of his rough start in MLB and the things his debut illuminated to reinforce the expert views that he probably settles in as a back end guy if he fixes his remaining skill deficiencies.

 

I think you'd be reaching for something that's not there to conclude what you're suggesting.

So I was replying to the following:

"Problem is that not so long ago Gonsalves was thought of as a for sure #3 and possibly a #2."

Not sure when #3 and possibly #2 is considered front end guy?

My only real point is there is no way a prospect should ever be rated as a teams third overall prospect or a top 100 list if his ceiling is a 4 or 5 starter.

Clear over-ranking I think.