The New Top Twins Pitching Prospect?

Miami, St. Louis, SF, etc.....it isn't just Washington that has a different approach. 

 

It is also possible the FO is wrong, given the track record here, one might even think that is likely. 

Consider the following evidence:  Twins' developed starting pitchers that were promoted to the majors.  Baker, Perkins, Slowey, Blackburn, and I will include Garza.  All "had a major league arm", but lacked the consistent "finish-'em-off" pitch.  Each of them had "enough" of a fast-ball, but the secondary pitches really didn't make the grade to elevate these guys to "the next level".  Liriano, when he camr to MN, already had his FB and slider going for him--but the Twins system was never able to build on that. Gibson wasn'r really developed by the Twins--the MiL was simply a proving ground which he zipped through until his injury.

There was (still is?) a thread about Cedar Rapids being "in a bind" due to their SP reaching an innings limit--all were under 70 innings pitched!  MLB SPs need to go 162 innings to "qualify".  Pitchers will burn-out.  But that's why teams sign so many of them every year.  There is definitely a "survival of the fittest" element.  But pitchers must be developed to succeed at the MLB level, not just get there.

Consider the following evidence:  Twins' developed starting pitchers that were promoted to the majors.  Baker, Perkins, Slowey, Blackburn, and I will include Garza.  All "had a major league arm", but lacked the consistent "finish-'em-off" pitch.  Each of them had "enough" of a fast-ball, but the secondary pitches really didn't make the grade to elevate these guys to "the next level". 

I think thats not right.  Baker had very good SO numbers before injury

Garza has nice SO numbers

Slowey had respectable SO numbers before injury.  I would say all 3 of those pitchers "made the grade." 

Injuries and bad scouting derailed the team.  

There was (still is?) a thread about Cedar Rapids being "in a bind" due to their SP reaching an innings limit--all were under 70 innings pitched!  MLB SPs need to go 162 innings to "qualify".  

As the person who probably started the thread regarding the Kernels' dilema re starting pitchers bumping up against inning limits, I think we need to understand one thing. The approx 70 innings that the 3 lefties involved (Thorpe, Gonsalves and Batts) have thrown is a bit misleading.

Batts threw something like 100 innings at UNC-Wilmington this spring, so he's north of 160 IP on the year.

The official innings count on Gonsalves and Thorpe didn't start until June when they joined E'town and CR, respectively. They didn't spend April and May playing soccer. They were in Extended Spring Training getting regular work in live situations. They just don't keep public/official stats for those outings, so there's no way for the public to really know how many innings they went before their official seasons started.

I think it's probably safe to assume they each threwat least 20 innings per month, putting them both at somewhere around 100 innings on the season right now. That's a fair amount more than what they threw a year ago when they both split time between rookie league rotations and bullpens.

It's the additional workload this year over the innings put on their young arms a year ago that the Twins are closely regulating.

All of that said, I think you can usually tell when a young pitcher is hitting a wall and should be shut down. (see Berrios, Jose, Aug 2013) and none of these 3 pitchers seems to be laboring all that much at all their last few starts, to my admittedly amateur eyes. Thorpe's pressed a bit with his command and ended up walking a couple more guys than usual in each of his last couple starts, but that's been about the only notable thing I've seen with any of them.

Anyway, my point really was simply that you can't just go by official IPs for guys whose seasons didn't start until June. They were pitching somewhere before that.

I am a little conerned with the dramitic drop in his K/9 (10 -> 6) when going from A+ to AA.  That fact alone makes me think he is still lower on the rung than Meyer who has maintained a strong number.

I think Berrios is ahead of Meyer. And I don't think it's close. 20 year old vs 25 year old getting a start and starts at AAA.

 

Another interesting comparison would be Thorpe and Stewart.

 

Both at class A. One is 19, the other 18. One has fairly good command, not particularly high K/9 though. The other, has high K/9, but also high BB/9. Is there also some leveling out here as far as prospects go? Has Thorpe gained ground on Stewart? Has Stewart increased the gap? Or has it remained steady?

For the little that it's worth, I believe the gap has narrowed a little, because Thorpe has been more impressive than I expected, while Stewart has been about right what I hoped he would be.

In November, I put out my personal "Top 15" Twins prospects. I had Stewart at 5 and Thorpe at 11. I haven't really given a lot of thought to this year's list yet, but just eyeballing, I'd guess Stewart will stay about where he was and Thorpe will move up 2-3 spots.

Stewart's year might normally warrant a little jump, but that's tough to do when guys like Buxton, Sano and Meyer didn't "graduate" from prospect status ahead of him, as we might have hoped 1 or 2 would have. Just means the top 5-6 guys this coming year are probably even stronger than the top 5-6 were coming in to the current season, and that's pretty encouraging.

It is amazing how quickly some posters can turn on a player. What exactly was Meyer's crime here? Did he suddenly throw less than 90 mph on his fastball? Was he in charge of his innings limits? Did his ERA climb over 5? If all the angst was due to his possible shoulder injury it would make sense but that really doesn't seem to be the case for people suddenly thinking he has no future. The way I recall it was is that Meyer did not go deep into games because the Twins limited his pitches per game. Going 5 or 6 innings on 80 pitches is not so ridiculous especially when you are a strike out pitcher. I defended Pino and May being promoted ahead of him but also believe Meyer earned a spot before Darnell and Johnson. Is that his fault that he pitched well enough for promotion but wasn't promoted? He could easily have been brought up for a couple starts which along with his minor league numbers would have made a decent progression. The only negatives at all is his walks ( I don't discount that since command is what has sunk May so far) and a little shoulder stiffness during his last start. I don't usually credit the term expert since I don't really believe there are any but are there any scouting reports that have said "Whoops, instead of projecting Meyer as a #1 or #2, we think it is now just a prayer that he can even attain the heights of mop up reliever"?

I'm not sure anyone suggested it's a prayer he'll attain mop-up reliever status. The suggestion that he may eventually be best utilized as a closer or other back-end bullpen arm has been out there since he was acquired.

I think Meyer is still the most promising hope for a top-of-the-rotation pitcher with an ETA of 2015 that the Twins have in their system. But I don't feel he lived up to my lofty hopes coming in to the season. Admittedly, my hopes may have been unrealisticly influenced by a few AzFL appearances.

I'm not sure anyone suggested it's a prayer he'll attain mop-up reliever status. The suggestion that he may eventually be best utilized as a closer or other back-end bullpen arm has been out there since he was acquired.

 

I think Meyer is still the most promising hope for a top-of-the-rotation pitcher with an ETA of 2015 that the Twins have in their system. But I don't feel he lived up to my lofty hopes coming in to the season. Admittedly, my hopes may have been unrealisticly influenced by a few AzFL appearances.

Kwak "Berrios is definitely ahead of Meyer--and likely several others. Meyer has been moved from "prospect" to "PRAYER" in the player rankings. If he can turn it around--great! But, pinning hopes on a shoulder-injured player who rarely pitches six innings? No, folks this guy is a prospect (at 24!) he is a PRAYER. I hope he makes it-- No, I'm not advocating to "shoot this horse", but I'm not going to bet on him--nor should the Twins. Simply play him and hope (and PRAY)."but the probability as a dependible rotation guy is too long of a shot.

I admit I used a little hyperbole to make my point.

OK, I know this isn't wholly accurate over time. Things change. But if, like me, and a few other "old timers" on here, LOL, ...don't hate me for saying that!...you can remember the Twins history back 10...20...even 30 years perhaps.

In that time, you've seen a hell of a lot. You've seen 2 owners, multiple managers, and if we ignore Bill Smith's short tenure, only 2 GM's since 1987. Top of my head, right now, I just can't recall GM's before that. In those older days, guys like Oelkers and Viola and Anderson, amongst others, were promoted quickly. More recently were Milton, Radke, Denny Neagle, Erickson and Santana, a rule 5 pick stuck in the pen to keep him.

NOT saying the Twins have been overly aggressive in promoting pitchers over the years, but these are a few examples of where it has taken place. I don't know if it's his nature or not, but I think Ryan is conservative by nature. Previously, he made some very aggressive moves with prospects as well as trades. I think when he came back, he was stuck in a cautious mode. His trades for May and Meyer, however, as well as a general philosophy draft change in to drafting power arms, seems to indicate some progression in his approach. We can argue all day long about May and Meyer, but at the end of the day, both of these kids were in their first season of AAA ball. Berrios was progressed aggressively. Despite massive talent, so were Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves and others.

I have been a HUGE fan of Berrios since drafted, and have compared him to Pedro Martinez, though in truth he's probably thicker, more muscular, and a better overall athlete. And I've read many times, possibly fairly, where Meyer compares to Randy Johnson in size, ability and potential.

I absolutely do not have all the answers, and don't pretend to. Perhaps there really are 3-4 teams out there that know something nobody else does...and knows that promoting 21 y.o.'s to the majors works. Perhaps they just got lucky drafting super high, and perhaps those pitchers will burn out. Who knows. But I also think it's kind of crazy to compare every prospect to every other prospect.

I would still rank Meyer ahead of Berrios to this point, based on pure stuff and his length. But I would also put Berrios as a top 5 Twins prospect. Saying he is behind Buxton, Sano and Meyer is no small thing! His stuff, his approach and work ethic seem outstanding. And as reported, despite average height, he seems to do an outstanding job of keeping the ball low. If all of this continues, he could surpass Meyer. But for now, I'd say #2 behind Meyer in the Twins organization for pitchers.

Regardless of who who you think is #1 now, they both would have been #1 5 years ago; nice problem to have, Berrios, Meyer, plus Stewart, true potential front line guys. When has that ever happened for this team? We ain't talking Mark Redmond, Jason Bell, and Dan Serafini here. Or Baker, Slowey, Blackburn. Or Mills, Johnson, whoever. 

Add in Gonsalves, Thorpe, maybe Cederoth. 

This has been a layer of starting pitching the Twins prospect pool has never had in my time, except if you consider Santana -Liriano, but they both seemed to make their case at the major league level. 

The pen looks to be in good shape for the future as well.

You're asking the right questions and I don't know the answers.  If you ever get a chance to interview Adam Wainright, you could ask him.

 

2006:  61 games  75 IP

2007:  32 games 202 IP

 

Rigorous simulated innings between relief appearances his rookie year, is my guess, but purely that.

 

Other Cardinal pitchers had less extreme situations. Lance Lynn in the bullpen for a while in 2011 and then a full SP load the next year, Shelby Miller in a short stint of relief in 2012 before full-time starting.  But they don't always do it that way either, Michael Wacha started in his first 5 major league appearances.  Unless the front office wants to divulge their secret sauce, you'd probably have to piece it together by interviewing pitchers one by one and see what emerged about their process and whether anything could be inferred as to the philosophy.

Wainwright's situation is completely irrelevant to Meyer (but not to May).  Wainwright threw 182 innings the year before he spent a year in relief as a rookie.  This is one of the reasons that this plus 30 rule needs further analysis in each situation.  If someone is injured or pitches in relief it doesn't set that person back to 70IP to 100 to 130 to 160 to 190. 

further analysis of some of the Twins pitching prospects

For Meyer he has pitched 130 - 70 - 130 innings so I would expect him to be limited again next year in the plus 30-40 range.  Berrios is 20 yrs old and has gone 100-140 and I would expect him to be limited in the 160-170 range next year.  Trevor May almost certainly will not have an innings limit next year even though he only has 120 IP so far.  He has pitched 150-160 innings for the 3 previous seasons.  There's no reason he can't go 200 innings.  Thorpe and Gonsalves will certainly have innings limits but it might not be plus 30.  I wouldn't be surprised if they were allowed to go 120+ allowing them to pitch most of the season.

You can't make any conclusions based on completely different situations.  Wainwright in particular is bad example to use since he had 800 MiLB innings.  At that point his arm doesn't need to be babied even if he pitched a year in relief.  I think using the plus 30 rule for pitchers that spent a year relieving after pitching 160+ innings in the minors is a misuse of the rule.