Rooker Promoted: Aggressive, or No?

WHile this was an aggressive move by the Twins organization standard, it was not an aggressive move.  A player like Rooker should start in the short-season A league, but the Twins don't even have an affiliation.

If you look at past history the Twins have routinely put their college draft picks in Rk+ Elizabethton and then promoted a few to A- Cedar Rapids.  I am sure they think that is aggressive enough, and as far as that goes it is fine.  THe problem is that they hold almost everyone of those prospects to Cedar Rapids the following year and then move them up stepwise.  

I get it with young high school players, but college players are 3-4 years older.  Look at Mitch Garver and a lot of the collge pitching draft choices.  They aren't reaching the majors until they are 25-26 years of age.  That is too slow.

WHile this was an aggressive move by the Twins organization standard, it was not an aggressive move.  A player like Rooker should start in the short-season A league, but the Twins don't even have an affiliation.

 

If you look at past history the Twins have routinely put their college draft picks in Rk+ Elizabethton and then promoted a few to A- Cedar Rapids.  I am sure they think that is aggressive enough, and as far as that goes it is fine.  THe problem is that they hold almost everyone of those prospects to Cedar Rapids the following year and then move them up stepwise.  

 

I get it with young high school players, but college players are 3-4 years older.  Look at Mitch Garver and a lot of the collge pitching draft choices.  They aren't reaching the majors until they are 25-26 years of age.  That is too slow.

I assume you're referring to something like the New York-Penn League when you say that the Twins don't have an affiliation? I think that that's considered "Rookie Advanced." That is, it's below the level of Elizabethton, which is Class A Short Season.

If you're going to argue about the Twins not being aggressive enough because they put their college picks at Elizabethton by saying that instead they "should start in the short-season A league," then I think you're off base, both about where they put their prospects and what level that league is at.

I also think it's an overgeneralization to claim that each player moves in lockstep. That's just demonstrably false.

Nice read Seth - one area I think the Twins are woefully unagressive is in the area of relief pitchers.

Just watching a lot of ball this year, and there are a lot of hard throwing relievers in the game that seem pretty young, raw, but effective.

We seem to sit on out relievers until they are 25-26, which is longer than other teams in my unscientific study.

I assume you're referring to something like the New York-Penn League when you say that the Twins don't have an affiliation? I think that that's considered "Rookie Advanced." That is, it's below the level of Elizabethton, which is Class A Short Season.

 

If you're going to argue about the Twins not being aggressive enough because they put their college picks at Elizabethton by saying that instead they "should start in the short-season A league," then I think you're off base, both about where they put their prospects and what level that league is at.

 

I also think it's an overgeneralization to claim that each player moves in lockstep. That's just demonstrably false.

You realize you are wrong. 

Elizabethton IS NOT SHORT SEASON A.  It is rookie league, advanced Rookie, but still considered rookie league.  For the Twins, it is above their Gulf Coast League team that playes in Ft Myers.  

But, Short Season A ball is above the rookie league and teams that have affiliations at this level usually send their college draft picks to this level.  The Twins, without a short season A team almost exclusively send their college draft picks to Elizabethton and a few advanced high school players (Alex Kiriloff started there).  They usually send their high school draft picks and some junior college players, as well as the occasional late signign college player to GCL. 

I believe the Twins should consider affiliating with a short season A team because for college draft picks, Rooker as a good example, the Pioneer League simply isn't competitive enough.  It is a waste of time and because of the lack of competition the Twins lose a critical period in evaluating the players.  

Interesting article. Personally I don't think there's any positive correlation between age and performance. If there was we should all be excited about acquiring Colon.

 

When a player demonstrates he can handle the level of competition where he's at, he should be moved up. Notice I said "handle", not dominate. Nobody learns anything new by dominating competitors of lesser ability because there's no incentive to do so. People who aren't challenged stagnate.

Agreed. However, I believe the Twins should be a bit more conservative with Royce Lewis. They should demur from promoting him further for at least another two weeks. I think one bump per month should be sufficient.  ;-)

Umm Tyler Wells is the EXACT average for the Midwest league. Age 22. I swear some people act like they're playing against little leaguers so they shouldn't be considered good.

You realize you are wrong.

 

Elizabethton IS NOT SHORT SEASON A.  It is rookie league, advanced Rookie, but still considered rookie league.  For the Twins, it is above their Gulf Coast League team that playes in Ft Myers.  

 

But, Short Season A ball is above the rookie league and teams that have affiliations at this level usually send their college draft picks to this level.  The Twins, without a short season A team almost exclusively send their college draft picks to Elizabethton and a few advanced high school players (Alex Kiriloff started there).  They usually send their high school draft picks and some junior college players, as well as the occasional late signign college player to GCL. 

 

I believe the Twins should consider affiliating with a short season A team because for college draft picks, Rooker as a good example, the Pioneer League simply isn't competitive enough.  It is a waste of time and because of the lack of competition the Twins lose a critical period in evaluating the players.  

 

I looked it up, and yes I was wrong about the relative rankings of the league. Sorry for that. 

Then again, your overgeneralization to claim that each player moves in lockstep is still a valid criticism.

LOVE the article and perspective! Aggressive? Yes. And positively so!

Now, put the hammer down...damnit...and get Gonsalves, Romero and Jorge up to Rochester!

Gonsalves may be the best and most ready SO for a promotion and is kicking butt and he's stuck in AA. Who is blocking him exactly? Romero may be even better! Great! Why can't he pitch 5 innings at Rochester instead of Chattanooga? Jorge has started 2 games for the ML club but can't pitch at AAA? Once again, who are blocking these guys?

I looked it up, and yes I was wrong about the relative rankings of the league. Sorry for that. 

 

Then again, your overgeneralization to claim that each player moves in lockstep is still a valid criticism.

As far as the generalization of how the Twins handle their minor league players, I stand by my assertion.

Here are several points:

1.   A real study of minor league movements would require way more work than what I am interested in doing (you would have to factor in performance, draft positions, injuries, starting age, etc), I would estimate that the Twins bring up their prospects 12-18 months later than most other organizations.  To compare, look at two catchers in AAA:  Mitch Garver and John Ryan Murphy (there are probably better comps but this one was the most direct).  Yet, despite Garver being statistically better player, Murphy reached the major leagues as a 22 year old.  Garver, despite being 26, still has not played at the MLB level.

2.  What makes this approach even more amazing is that the team is losing 95+ games a year.  Somehow, the Yankees while winning 85+ games per year and really competing for the playoffs managed to bring up a 22 year old catching prospect, while we still have a BETTER 26 year old prospect whiling in the minor leagues.

3.  Even with this very conservative approach, Twins prospects struggle making the jump from the minors to the majors, often showing a lack of understanding of baseball fundamentals.  

4.  And to top it all off, instead of moving their prospects to the majors for development and evaluation, we see a steady stream of Matt Belisle, Craig Breslow, Adam WIlk, Nick Turley, Drew Rucinski, Nick Tepesch, Chris Heston, and the ancient wonder Bartolo Colon just in 2017.  We have found innings for just about every single designated for assignment waiver wire pitcher in the league.  And the end result, a not surprising cumulaitve ERA that is higher than Chris Gimenez's.

5.  Some of these guys are on top of the steady stream of non-entities that have played for this losing franchise over the past 7 years.  A stream of Clete Thomases and Shane Robinsons.  

I'm going to address your comparison quickly. 

You are using Mitch Garver, a four-year college player, drafted in the ninth round only he saved the team money given his lack of leverage, to JR Murphy, a high-school draftee paid more than $1 million in the second round and widely considered the better prospect until the last year or so, as your proof of how the Twins operate. That's not apples to oranges, that apples to battleships. It's not a great comparison, imo. Would you apply to same logic to Jorge Polanco, whom the Twins brought up at age 20 or 21 versus Brian Dozier, who had to wait until he was over the hill at 25 to get his first taste? Which player has done better for it? It just doesn't seem to fit your narrative.