Rooker Promoted: Aggressive, or No?

benji21 · July 19, 2017

Wow, really entertaining article. Thanks for putting this together Seth.

My opinion would be that it is an aggressive but appropriate move for him. Your research shows that it's not uncommon for this to happen. Several of those players ended the season at high A. I mean, thats where he'll end, but he's got plenty of season to acclimate. I think his time in the appy league was good for him to get used to playing after a layoff and pro ball. Looks like he's right where he should be.

Blake · July 19, 2017

Interesting, thank you for the write up!

Otwins · July 19, 2017

Lot of research in this article. Very interesting. To me it is not how they start but how they finish. Hope he makes it.

AlwaysinModeration · July 19, 2017

Rooker is slashing 000/000/000 in High A with a 25% K rate.

As for the premise of the article, I vote "aggressive" and I approve.

Han Joelo · July 19, 2017

Nice article. Good to have perspective. As old as it gets when people make puns out of your name, I'll bet he is looking forward to being called "Rook."

rdehring · July 19, 2017

Thanks, Seth, that was interesting.

Now lets not all jump on his you know what when he struggles a bit out of the gate!

Tom Froemming · July 19, 2017

Rooker is slashing 000/000/000 in High A with a 25% K rate.

As for the premise of the article, I vote "aggressive" and I approve.

BUST ......................

mikelink45 · July 19, 2017

I really like it. The information shared when he was drafted made him seem like he was ready for a fast track and it is good to see that the team is willing to let him rise as his talent dictates. I do not like the unwritten rules that are so often applied to time and promotion for minor leaguers. This is not aggressive, in my mind it is smart. Thanks for the article.

Mike Sixel · July 19, 2017

I thought FTM was aggressive compared to the league and the Twins, and it appears that is true. Would be nice if they were mildly so with AA pitchers that continue to dominate that level...

Tommygun921 · July 19, 2017

Ohhh....

Steve Lein · July 19, 2017

It's definitely aggressive, but I agree with mikelink45 above, it's also smart.

He's already almost 23 and has played against the best conference in college baseball for longer than most. A conference that has a ton of good pitching that gets drafted high every year and he was the leagues best hitter.

I know Seth doesn't think the Twins are always slow with prospects (and in special cases they definitely were not), and maybe the new regime will change this perception and this is a good start, but if it wasn't true in why is that the national perception of every single website and writer you can read about prospects when talking about the Twins? Where there's smoke there's fire.

I always bring up Adam Walker for how I view this and it's maybe not the best example either, but it speaks to the idea I want to see changed. I asked Keith Law in a chat once, if he was impressed at all by the number of home runs he had put up in the rookie leagues and Cedar Rapids. His answer was (paraphrasing): "Should I be? With his experience and success in college, that's what should have been expected at those levels. Never should have been there in the first place."

That is the type of perception and process I want to go by the wayside with the new guys in charge.

Now with Rooker, unless he lights the FSL on fire for the rest of the season, I would expect he starts there next year too like the guys brought up in the article. It's still aggressive, and what I'd like to see more of with college hitters especially. Stop having them play against the kids. All the things like the professional baseball life and getting used to the minors league schedule —they can do that wherever you start them in my opinion.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Steve Lein

David HK · July 19, 2017

Whoa- It's the Fort he's at, not Cedar Rapids. Aggressive-- YES! And I like it!

When I saw this post, I thought, well, it's about time they promoted him to CR, where he's still a little older than the average- but seeing it's already High-A, I'm digging it. So if he struggles, which I fully expect, so be it. It'll be the first step of adjustments he'll need to make on his way up, and he'll learn how to do that-- hopefully.

Go get 'em, Rook!

And thanks, Falvine, if this was your doing. Now can we talk about being more aggressive with young pitchers, and maybe a little less signing aging retreads?

tarheeltwinsfan · July 19, 2017

Very interesting article. Thank you. Free Curtiss!

markos · July 19, 2017

I understand that Rooker is 22, and he will turn 23 in November. While many want to push him to the big leagues in 2018 or early in 2019, I’m not even a little bit concerned about that. I want him to come up when he is ready to come up and contribute, whether that is in June of 2018 or July of 2020. The reality is that the Twins can get 6+ seasons out of a player before free agency hits. I don’t care whether those are their age 21 through 28 seasons or 25 through 32 seasons.
Brian Dozier was a four-year guy. He debuted within two years of being drafted. Mitch Garver was a four-year guy. As a catcher, he’s taken a little longer to develop behind the plate. So, he’s 26, but when he comes up (hopefully soon), he will be ready to go. Trevor Hildenberger was a five-year college guy. His first pro season was spent only in the GCL. Does that matter now? We need to get rid of the stigma placed upon these guys that they are older than their level, even if it is factual. It just isn’t all that important.

The stigma placed upon these guys isn't that they will be old by the time they get to the majors; instead, it is placed on these guys because it is incredibly difficult to make any judgement about their performance when they are amongst the oldest players in their league. Rooker is going to be 23 next year. Anything he does below AA at that point is essentially meaningless as their are dozens and dozens of 23+yo college players who crush it in High-A every single season. I want to see him in AA next year not so much because it fast-tracks him to the majors, but because it puts him in an environment that will actually shed light on the likelihood of him reaching the big league and potentially becoming an impact performer.

Thrylos · July 19, 2017

I hear stuff like that a lot. Many believe that the Twins aren’t aggressive enough with prospects. But for a 2017 draft pick, even a college hitter, I think that jumping to High-A ball is pretty aggressive. But honestly, I was just really curious. I needed to know.

Actually this has been the norm with the Twins. Here is where College hitters selected on the first round (or sup first) have played in their first pro seasons:

2012 Levi Michael A+

1997 Matt LeCroy A/A+

1994 Todd Walker A+

1991 Dave McCarty A+

1991 Scott Stahoviak A+

Truth is they have not selected many college hitters very early, but when they did, they started them in Ft Myers, other than LeCroy who started in A and ended up at Fort Myers, and as a C, that is an aggressive path.

Norm. Nothing unusual, other than the fact that they selected a college hitter that high

drjim · July 19, 2017

Actually this has been the norm with the Twins. Here is where College hitters selected on the first round (or sup first) have played in their first pro seasons:

2012 Levi Michael A+
1997 Matt LeCroy A/A+
1994 Todd Walker A+
1991 Dave McCarty A+
1991 Scott Stahoviak A+

Truth is they have not selected many college hitters very early, but when they did, they started them in Ft Myers, other than LeCroy who started in A and ended up at Fort Myers, and as a C, that is an aggressive path.

Norm. Nothing unusual, other than the fact that they selected a college hitter that high

There is a difference between draft year and first full season.

Dave The Dastardly · July 19, 2017

Interesting article. Personally I don't think there's any positive correlation between age and performance. If there was we should all be excited about acquiring Colon.

When a player demonstrates he can handle the level of competition where he's at, he should be moved up. Notice I said "handle", not dominate. Nobody learns anything new by dominating competitors of lesser ability because there's no incentive to do so. People who aren't challenged stagnate.

Seth Stohs · July 19, 2017

It's definitely aggressive, but I agree with mikelink45 above, it's also smart.

He's already almost 23 and has played against the best conference in college baseball for longer than most. A conference that has a ton of good pitching that gets drafted high every year and he was the leagues best hitter.

I know Seth doesn't think the Twins are always slow with prospects (and in special cases they definitely were not), and maybe the new regime will change this perception and this is a good start, but if it wasn't true in why is that the national perception of every single website and writer you can read about prospects when talking about the Twins? Where there's smoke there's fire.

I always bring up Adam Walker for how I view this and it's maybe not the best example either, but it speaks to the idea I want to see changed. I asked Keith Law in a chat once, if he was impressed at all by the number of home runs he had put up in the rookie leagues and Cedar Rapids. His answer was (paraphrasing): "Should I be? With his experience and success in college, that's what should have been expected at those levels. Never should have been there in the first place."

That is the type of perception and process I want to go by the wayside with the new guys in charge.

Now with Rooker, unless he lights the FSL on fire for the rest of the season, I would expect he starts there next year too like the guys brought up in the article. It's still aggressive, and what I'd like to see more of with college hitters especially. Stop having them play against the kids. All the things like the professional baseball life and getting used to the minors league schedule —they can do that wherever you start them in my opinion.

My point is that it can't be a cookie cutter thing. Not every college player, even from the great conferences, are the same.

Caleb Hamilton came from Oregon State. He's spent this season in Cedar Rapids. Is that a bad decision? No. He's catching now some, he's playing other positions, and he wasn't a top player from that top team. He's where he should be.

Brandon Lopez and Mitchell Kranson are already in Ft. Myers now after being drafted last year, as 9th and 10th round picks. To me, that's pretty impressive.

LaMonte Wade moved up to AA after just like 23 games in High A. That's aggressive.

But, Kyle Wright's first appearance for the Braves was in the GCL... Brendan McKay is playing in short-season A. They're all different.

And you're right... Walker isn't a good example... He wasn't a #1 pick. He was a 3rd round pick, and not from a top conference (though a good southern conference). He had his areas that he needed to work on. Any evaluater knew that, and that's why it was wise for the Twins to move him as he did, giving him at least an opportunity to work on those things at those levels. Could they have figured him out sooner by starting him at AA instead? Sure, he would have been a strikeout machine, and he wouldn't have been given a fair chance to develop those things he needed to.

Mike Sixel · July 19, 2017

Interesting article. Personally I don't think there's any positive correlation between age and performance. If there was we should all be excited about acquiring Colon.

When a player demonstrates he can handle the level of competition where he's at, he should be moved up. Notice I said "handle", not dominate. Nobody learns anything new by dominating competitors of lesser ability because there's no incentive to do so. People who aren't challenged stagnate.

that first paragraph is filled with so much wrongness, it is unreal. Seriously? a 44 yo and correlation? wow.

jrod23 · July 19, 2017

This did surprise me, but he was interviewed during a home game right after he signed. He said he was going to Fort Myers to workout. Then the plan was to go to Elizabethton for while, then go back to Fort Myers. That was great news for me since I went down to E-Town for the home opener(s). Big Dave actually let me help deliver all the gear to the guys. So when Rooker pans out, I can say I hand delivered his first pair of spikes.

Regardless, so actually Rooker leaked this way back in June right after the draft. I like it. Let Dougy Baseball get his hands on him. E-Town was winning games and Fort Myers is dominating right now. Breed that winning atmosphere for him to be brought up in.

MN_ExPat · July 19, 2017

It's definitely aggressive, but I agree with mikelink45 above, it's also smart.

He's already almost 23 and has played against the best conference in college baseball for longer than most. A conference that has a ton of good pitching that gets drafted high every year and he was the leagues best hitter.

I know Seth doesn't think the Twins are always slow with prospects (and in special cases they definitely were not), and maybe the new regime will change this perception and this is a good start, but if it wasn't true in why is that the national perception of every single website and writer you can read about prospects when talking about the Twins? Where there's smoke there's fire.

I always bring up Adam Walker for how I view this and it's maybe not the best example either, but it speaks to the idea I want to see changed. I asked Keith Law in a chat once, if he was impressed at all by the number of home runs he had put up in the rookie leagues and Cedar Rapids. His answer was (paraphrasing): "Should I be? With his experience and success in college, that's what should have been expected at those levels. Never should have been there in the first place."

That is the type of perception and process I want to go by the wayside with the new guys in charge.

Now with Rooker, unless he lights the FSL on fire for the rest of the season, I would expect he starts there next year too like the guys brought up in the article. It's still aggressive, and what I'd like to see more of with college hitters especially. Stop having them play against the kids. All the things like the professional baseball life and getting used to the minors league schedule —they can do that wherever you start them in my opinion.

Sorry to disagree... the SEC still sucks

clutterheart · July 19, 2017

We need to get rid of the stigma placed upon these guys that they are older than their level, even if it is factual. It just isn’t all that important.

Disagree, and I think you do too. Otherwise why would you rank Lachlan Wells higher than Tyler Wells?

Tyler Wells is almost 23 and at Low A pitching lights out against guys whose ave age is almost 2 years younger than him. Lachlan Wells is 20 at doing OK at High A facing batters 2 year older than him.

Age matters when it comes to ceiling/floor conversations and performance evaluation. If older prospects sit at the same level, and don't get promoted their age needs to be considered when evaluating their performance.

Ben Noble · July 19, 2017

No.

Seth Stohs · July 19, 2017

that first paragraph is filled with so much wrongness, it is unreal. Seriously? a 44 yo and correlation? wow.

I'm guessing there may have been a little bit of sarcasm in that paragraph...

Seth Stohs · July 19, 2017

Disagree, and I think you do too. Otherwise why would you rank Lachlan Wells higher than Tyler Wells?

Tyler Wells is almost 23 and at Low A pitching lights out against guys whose ave age is almost 2 years younger than him. Lachlan Wells is 20 at doing OK at High A facing batters 2 year older than him.

Age matters when it comes to ceiling/floor conversations and performance evaluation. If older prospects sit at the same level, and don't get promoted their age needs to be considered when evaluating their performance.

Age matters in prospect rankings. I don't think anyone would deny that... But obviously a guy who goes to 3-4 years of college will always be behind the 8-ball when it comes to such things. The hope is that the cream will rise to the crop, and there are many examples of that.

Mike Sixel · July 19, 2017

I'm guessing there may have been a little bit of sarcasm in that paragraph...

It's possible, but there was clearly an argument being made that there is no correlation.

diehardtwinsfan · July 19, 2017

Age matters in prospect rankings. I don't think anyone would deny that... But obviously a guy who goes to 3-4 years of college will always be behind the 8-ball when it comes to such things. The hope is that the cream will rise to the crop, and there are many examples of that.

Yeah, hard to deny age. College guys have to perform where they are placed. Now for the record, Rooker is 1.6 years younger than the average age in the FSL. A good season here would place him pretty firmly on the prospect map.

Mike Sixel · July 19, 2017

Yeah, hard to deny age. College guys have to perform where they are placed. Now for the record, Rooker is 1.6 years younger than the average age in the FSL. A good season here would place him pretty firmly on the prospect map.

cool.

One thing, I struggle with "average age" since most really good prospects get promoted, and older guys that aren't good enough repeat levels. But I've never seen a good way to compare players to other players on similar tracks (college, actual prospectness, etc.)

diehardtwinsfan · July 19, 2017

cool.

One thing, I struggle with "average age" since most really good prospects get promoted, and older guys that aren't good enough repeat levels. But I've never seen a good way to compare players to other players on similar tracks (college, actual prospectness, etc.)

There's plenty of older guys doing well in said league. You don't promote on age, you promote based on it being an appropriate location for where you are. The old guys still struggling are the ones who get released.

To me, age relative to league average is a good metric.

Seth Stohs · July 19, 2017

There's plenty of older guys doing well in said league. You don't promote on age, you promote based on it being an appropriate location for where you are. The old guys still struggling are the ones who get released.

To me, age relative to league average is a good metric.

It is because it's consistent and gives context. A guy who is 3 years younger than average and holding his own is likely a better prospect than a guy who is 1 year older than average. We get that... but there are variables, like college/JC/HS draft, where they're from, etc.,

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