Post Draft: Who is the Twins' Top Prospect?

I'd maybe drop Martin to #5

Yeah I would drop Martin to 5 as well.  Lewis is still a 5 tool player and his hit tool looked just fine so no more worries about that hanging over his head.  He is number 1 for me.

Lee is a rare Switch hitting force at the plate that could be a plus defender at third.  He has All Star potential if it all comes together so I agree with having him at number 2.

At 3 I am going with Rodriguez and the good eye at the plate and what appears to be a special bat and he should be solid defensively in a corner if not above average.  Another huge bat in the system.

Prielipp at 4 for me and he could end up higher but I just don't know what to expect post injury.  He could drop if he ends up reliever material so need more info before I would move him higher than this.

Martin is on the list so will give him the 5 spot but I like Steer and Wallner better.  Steer is a more balanced hitter with a good eye and Wallner has power to all fields with hard contact on everything.

The system looks like it is OK for good hitter even after all the graduations.

This is about right.

No way Lee should be lower than 2nd.  I really like what we saw from Lewis this year so I'd also still have him at #1, but Lee could maybe overtake him if he really crushes it in his first taste of pro ball.

I'd have Prielipp a little lower due to reliever risk.  I'll take Steer and SWR ahead of him for now.  I'd put him ahead of Canterino though, who has even greater reliever risk.

To me Lewis and Lee are clearly the top 2. System is pretty weak on higher-end talent after that outside of maybe some lower-level younger guys. Based off Lewis' surprisingly strong performance in AAA and with the big-league club I'd put him #1 yet. Shocked at how well he came back after all that time off better than he was prior and at a higher level of competition. Lee is likely the only other player that will be in top 100 lists unless someone sneaks in at the bottom.  Martin, honestly, I've never liked. Repeating AA and actually going downhill, not a good sign. Looks like a possible utility player, hopefully way off on that. 

25 minutes ago, Dman said:

At 3 I am going with Rodriguez and the good eye at the plate and what appears to be a special bat and he should be solid defensively in a corner if not above average.  Another huge bat in the system.

Prielipp at 4 for me and he could end up higher but I just don't know what to expect post injury.  He could drop if he ends up reliever material so need more info before I would move him higher than this.

If all the stories about Connor are true, he may be #3 as our best pitching prospect in the minors.

Buzz Lightyear ascends to the top.  Woody gets kicked to the corner.

The saviors have been anointed again. Meanwhile, Cavaco and Sabato have taken the spear and are being drained on the cross (not worried about them rising again ?).

Rinse and repeat in 2023.

I'm also voting Rodriguez to #3 and dropping Martin down to #5. 

While I'm not sure I'm putting them ahead of Martin at this point simply due to the "potential" Martin still  has, echoing Dman's shout out to Steer and Wallner. Steer is basically doing this year what Miranda did last season. But also want to throw some love the way of CES. While defensive questions remain, what a bat! Not saying he's top 5, just recognizing that what hes doing is pretty awesome and worth being mentioned.

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI Lewis (59), Winder (69), Rodriguez (85), and Steer (100) made Baseball America's updated top 100.

That was going to be my question has Winder lost his status? If not he is my number 2, Lee 3, Rodriquez 4, then 5 would be Raya or Prielipp. I am more in the camp that the top prospects should be young or at least on the younger side. The Steer, Wallner, Canterino will all be 25 (probably) before they see their first major league action. My reasoning is older guys end up more like Gordon than lets say Arraez or Buxton.

I also like what Steve Hajjar is doing  (minus the innings per start) but 62 K's in 39 innings is impressive and should be moving up the lists fairly quickly.

It's Royce Lewis and it always has been. Seeing so many people put Austin Martin above him preseason was so weird

46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Winder was 25 when he debuted, for what it's worth.

To me it's splitting hairs with a lot of this stuff when it comes to ranking lists (it's why I'm not a big fan of ranking lists). I prefer groupings/tiers. I'd have my grouping of "Untouchables" that either position players or pitchers can be in. Then I'd break down my pitchers and position players into different groups with many factors instead of listing everyone together in a list. The difference between a pitcher ranked 8th and 12th in a system is basically nothing most of the time. They're likely both middle to back end of the rotation type arms and it's just a question of which one can put it all together. So to me the Twins have 2 guys with All Star upside in the system (Lewis and Lee) and then it's just a jumble of guys with similar likely ceilings.

Arg, I know he is 25 and a old 25 at that (26 in three months), and I know I am being inconsistent, but I thought he should have came up directly from AA last year and IMO has pitched so much better than the rest of the prospects and beside the end of the year doesn't seem been injury prone, so maybe it is by default I moved him up because the rest I have moved down and I didn't feel I could put teenagers and guys that haven't pitched in the minors above him.

I've lost all confidence in Austin Martin at this point in time.  I'd have him below Lewis, Lee, Prielipp, Rodriguez, Steer, Wallner, CES, and Julien for sure; CES and Julien are controversial to some, but they are both younger than Martin (CES by about 8 months, Julien by a few weeks), and performing notably better than Martin at the same level.  CES has a very small sample size at AA, but his A+ numbers this year were so far superior to Martin's that I'm inclined that way.  I'd be open to hearing arguments on SWR, Varland, Raya, and Hajjar as well. 

I just can't call a 23 year old who is not performing in AA (in his second year at AA to boot) a top prospect.  For Martin to regain his prospect status in my eyes, he needs to get massively better, jump up to the MLB level while maintaining his production, or get younger.  I'm not confident in any of those things happening (some more so than others), so I put Martin outside the top 10, and if there is a team at the deadline who still values him as the 5th overall pick in 2020, I trade him in a heartbeat.

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Not to be a complete contrarian, but I wouldn't even have Martin in my top 10. His ceiling looks to be just a slap hitter with some stolen base potential that the Twins would never put to use.

Increasingly, he doesn't even look like a slap hitter, as his plate value derives from his OBP which is being held up by his walks.  For a guy with supposedly the best bat in the 2020 draft, he is conspicuously not particularly good at actually hitting.

Royce Lewis is certainly the #1 prospect, because he's proven it. We've already seen that he can hit big league pitching and is a credible major league shortstop.

But after that, you have to go with the projectability of Brooks Lee. Even though he's coming out of the draft at basically the same level as Austin Martin, he has the advantage of being an unknown, while Martin has the disadvantage of being far better known and disappointing.

After those two, I'm not sure who comes next. The hottest Twins prospects are all in lower levels of the minors right now. There seems to be a gap right now, where there aren't any especially promising prospects after Lewis. Perhaps Prielipp will impress, or Rodriguez will continue hitting as he moves up.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

There's a pretty bold take. I don't know that I'd argue super hard against it. It sort of feels like a Buxton situation to me and the best thing Martin can do for himself is just tune everyone out and build his swing the way he wants. That's all assuming his fall from grace is largely driven by the Twins trying to turn him into a power hitter and the swing/approach changes are driving his inability to hit for average now. I feel like the talent is still there to be a right handed Arraez-lite with speed. If he can be a .300 hitter who steals some bags and plays really nice defense in left I'd be quite happy. But he sure looks lost right now.

I also think they need to put him in left and just let him be. You traded for his bat, not his glove. There was nothing hurt in seeing if he could stick at SS, but that possibility has passed and it's time to let him settle into a spot and focus on his bat. Put him in left and let him focus on getting his bat right.

I tend to agree with this.  I would be ecstatic is two years from now we had Arraez and Martin as .320 AVG/.400 OBP guys batting 9/1 or 1/2 in front of Buxton, Miranda, Kiriloff, Wallner, etc.  I have no idea if the Twins pushing him to hit for power is the issue; if it is, knock it off, and let it develop (as it seems to be doing for Arraez), or not.  In that scenario, the worst case scenario is that Martin is "just" an elite OBP/speed tablesetter.  That's worth 3-4 WAR a year easy.

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Not to be a complete contrarian, but I wouldn't even have Martin in my top 10. His ceiling looks to be just a slap hitter with some stolen base potential that the Twins would never put to use.

Two questions - did the Twins hitting coaches totally mess up Martin by reworking his swing? Also, the injury he has had this year is a thumb injury. Has he had that most of the year and they just recently decided it was enough to hit the IL? Maybe that has affected his #'s. If either of those is true, the Twins can't trade him now as he will get better by next year, at least if it's a thumb injury causing problems.

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

That was going to be my question has Winder lost his status? If not he is my number 2, Lee 3, Rodriquez 4, then 5 would be Raya or Prielipp. I am more in the camp that the top prospects should be young or at least on the younger side. The Steer, Wallner, Canterino will all be 25 (probably) before they see their first major league action. My reasoning is older guys end up more like Gordon than lets say Arraez or Buxton.

I also like what Steve Hajjar is doing  (minus the innings per start) but 62 K's in 39 innings is impressive and should be moving up the lists fairly quickly.

Just wanted to say that it would be nice if your better prospects did debut around 23yo, I don't think anyone would disagree with that. The sooner the better, right? But I've never seen a 25yo debuting, or maybe entering his 1st FULL season at that age.

And here's why I personally feel why. A college draftee is usually 21 when selected. (There are exceptions, of course). With the milb season going longer now, and the earlier mandate for signing, most will be able to get 4-6 weeks of action at an A level. The next year they're 22yo, on average, and probably at A+, with the hope of reaching AA at some point. At age 23 they're MAYBE ready for AAA, but probably at AA, at least at the start of the year. So long as they aren't set back by injury and any development issues, 23-24 reaching the majors, even for a cup of coffee, is not out of the question. But again, that's if everything goes about perfect. So to me, being 25yo is really not all that detrimental as to future success and contributions.

And while there were a handful of guys who actually hit the majors in 2020, the large populous of prospects didn't play at all, or were some of the fortunate few who at least got to work out at their alternate sites. But that's still very different than having a full season of playing and development.

And while I don't have any evidence to back it up, I think a number of injuries, especially to pitchers, has been a result of the loss of continuity due to 2020. Personally, when I look at any prospects age right now, 23-24-25, I basically subtract a year. In other words, prospect wise, a 24yo is really 23yo in baseball terms. If that makes sense.

Anyway, just me and my thoughts is all.

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

There's a pretty bold take. I don't know that I'd argue super hard against it. It sort of feels like a Buxton situation to me and the best thing Martin can do for himself is just tune everyone out and build his swing the way he wants. That's all assuming his fall from grace is largely driven by the Twins trying to turn him into a power hitter and the swing/approach changes are driving his inability to hit for average now. I feel like the talent is still there to be a right handed Arraez-lite with speed. If he can be a .300 hitter who steals some bags and plays really nice defense in left I'd be quite happy. But he sure looks lost right now.

I also think they need to put him in left and just let him be. You traded for his bat, not his glove. There was nothing hurt in seeing if he could stick at SS, but that possibility has passed and it's time to let him settle into a spot and focus on his bat. Put him in left and let him focus on getting his bat right.

100%!

There is no reason why he can't take infield practice and even continue to play a little 2B/3B here and there to keep those spots in play for future flexibility. That's what you do in milb. And those are the spots he primarily played in college. Just admit...which I sort of think they have...that he's just not a SS. There's no crime or disappointment in that! Put him in LF, play him some in CF as well, and let him relax and work on a stroke and an approach that works for him.

Again, I find myself comparing him to former Royal great Alex Gordon. Alex was a fine 3B for the Huskers in college and was drafted as such. For some reason, he just get over the proverbial "hump" there in his pro career and was moved to the OF. I see Martin doing the same thing, and even being a similar hitter, potentially. The SKILLS are there to be a solid hitter with high OB%. He's got speed to make an impact. And he's big enough, athletic enough, that I think power will come. And he might never be a slugger and consistently hit 25-30 HR, but so what? He might be a high teens and low 20's HR guy with 30+ doubles every year, with some SB and hit and get OB and be quality defensively. That would be a really, really nice ballplayer. 

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm more of a tiers guy so I'd just say Lewis and Lee are tier 1 guys while the other 3 are tier 2 guys for varying reasons while each have legit paths to jumping into tier 1 (back into tier 1 in Martin's case).

Question:. In your scenario, what are the parameters for admission to each tier?

7 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Arg, I know he is 25 and a old 25 at that (26 in three months), and I know I am being inconsistent, but I thought he should have came up directly from AA last year and IMO has pitched so much better than the rest of the prospects and beside the end of the year doesn't seem been injury prone, so maybe it is by default I moved him up because the rest I have moved down and I didn't feel I could put teenagers and guys that haven't pitched in the minors above him.

I have always considered age to be less of a factor for pitchers than for hitters.  He's 25 and his arm hasn't fallen off - that alone puts him in the top 10% of pitching prospects in his age group.  

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Tier 1 would be anyone with all star upside. I think those 2 are the only ones like that currently. After tier 1 I'd split up pitchers and hitters and there'd be tiers within those groupings. Example being likely relievers would have their own grouping and then it'd be tiered on back end, middle, mop up, non-major leaguer. Starters would be mid-rotation, back of rotation tiers. Hitters I'd break into position groups and it'd be tiered in those groups by major league regular, backup/utility guy, non-major leaguer. Something like that. 

I just don't think there's much value in saying "mid to back end of a rotation pitcher A should be ranked 6th in the system, but mid to back end of the rotation pitcher B should be 9th behind major league regular corner outfielder C and utility man D." Pitchers A and B are basically the same guy and you're just hoping 1 makes it so they should be grouped together while the 2 bats would fill different needs on the team so shouldn't really be compared to each other or the pitchers on a ranking list.

People love to know what rank a prospect was in a team's system when they get traded. Receiving the 9th ranked prospect doesn't sound as good as receiving the 6th ranked prospect even though their spectrum of outcome possibilities are likely very, very similar. So to me what is important is what their spectrum looks like and not some arbitrary ranking they're given. I think grouping and tiers is more effective in representing spectrums and what a system really looks like instead of splitting hairs and comparing apples to oranges in an overall list. 

Then how about adding tiers for those that stay Minnesota during the off-season and those that don't.  Or tiers for college draft picks, high school draft picks, and those obtained via trade?  All the OP asked was who do people consider the top prospect.  I think your statement that Lewis and Lee were (in your opinion) the only ones who were potential All-stars pretty much answered the question without having to an extraordinary amount of research and calculations.

If Martin i still a top 5 prospect they are not very deep at all. No pitchers at all?