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  • 8 Players the Twins Need to Add to the 40-Man Roster


    Seth Stohs

    Re-post as the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster is 7:00 p.m. on Wednesday, November 20.


    Between now and March, there are many decisions that this front office will need to make. (See the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook for much more on them.). The Twins made several roster moves on Monday, and more will happen soon. One big decision that is made every November is which players to add to the 40-man roster. Being added to the 40-man roster is a really big deal for players. They make extra money in the minor leagues, but more important, a huge obstacle to being called up to the big leagues is removed. Below you will find a list of Twins minor leaguers who would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected on the 40-man roster.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (photo of Jhoan Duran)

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    With Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart and Martin Perez removed from the Twins 40-man roster on Monday, as well as six Twins players being free agents, the Twins 40-man roster is currently at 31 players. Here’s the quick version:

    • Pitchers (16): Jorge Alcala, Jose Berrios, Randy Dobnak, Tyler Duffey, Brusdar Graterol, Ryne Harper, Trevor Hildenberger, Zack Littell, Trevor May, Sean Poppen, Taylor Rogers, Fernando Romero, Devin Smeltzer, Cody Stashak, Lewis Thorpe, Matt Wisler.
    • Catchers (2): Willians Astudillo, Mitch Garver
    • Infielders (7): Ehire Adrianza, Luis Arraez, CJ Cron, Marwin Gonzalez, Nick Gordon, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano
    • Outfielders: (5) Byron Buxton, Jake Cave, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, LaMonte Wade
    • DH(1): Nelson Cruz

    Recall that the players who are added to the 40-man roster can’t be DFA'd until spring training, so the team will likely not want to fill up their roster now. But as you can see, there are still players on this list that need to be offered arbitration (or not) and there are several players who could be DFA'd for when the team signs free agents.

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    Last year, the Twins added three players to their 40-man roster. The “givens” at that time were Nick Gordon and LaMonte Wade. We included Luis Arraez as the first “on the bubble” name. The third “on the bubble” name mentioned here a year ago was RH RP Nick Anderson who was traded to the Marlins and pitched tremendously for the Marlins and the Rays as a rookie in 2019.

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    So, let’s get to the players that the team will consider adding to their 40-man roster.

    As a reminder, here are some of the criteria for who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected. Here is this year’s criteria:

    1. Players who signed when they were 18 or younger in 2015 (during the minor league season).
    2. Players who signed when they were 19 or older in 2016.
    3. Players who were eligible in previous seasons are also eligible again.
    4. Players drafted or signed during the 2013 season became free agents after the World Series was complete. That includes Johan Quezada and Jose Martinez. That is why Kohl Stewart, who went unclaimed on Monday, was able to become a free agent. If the Twins signed them (or other minor league free agents) before the Rule 5 draft, they would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

    But back to the players needing to be added or risk losing to the Rule 5 draft, I’ll break them into a few categories. The Givens are players that I think have to be added or there is a high likelihood that they will be selected by another team. The next group is a group of players that I think will probably be added, though not quite as obviously. The final group includes players that I would consider On The Bubble. It will be interesting to see which of these guys are added later this month. How many spots will be available on the team’s 40-man roster at that time?

    The Givens

    Several players that would have been Givens were already added to the 40-man roster and called up late in the season. In fact, there were several guys who may have been borderline who were added already. For instance, Brusdar Graterol and Jorge Alcala were going to be added. No question. Here are a couple more.

    1. RHP Jhoan Duran - He came to the Twins in July 2018 from the Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar trade. Duran throws hard. He hit triple-digits with a fastball several times in many of his starts. He went just 2-9 despite a 3.23 ERA in 16 games (15 starts) for the Miracle. He had 95 strikeouts in 78 innings.He moved up to AA Pensacola where he went 3-3 with a 4.86 ERA in seven starts. He struck out 41 batters in 37 innings. The 21-year-old stands 6-5 and has the potential for a starting pitcher’s mix.
    2. RHP Dakota Chalmers - Chalmers was a third-round pick of the Oakland A’s in 2015 out of high school in Georgia. He throws hard, but he has often struggled with control. He also fought injury and had Tommy John surgery early in 2018. The Twins acquired him in August in the Fernando Rodney trade. He returned to the mound in the second half of the 2019 season. After rehabbing in the GCL, the 23-year-old finished the regular season in Ft. Myers with the Miracle. He pitched for the Blue Wahoos in the playoffs and then headed to the Arizona Fall League to get more innings. He has a mid-90s fastball and good spin on his curveball. He also throws a changeup that is good when on.

    The Probables

    1. 2B/3B Travis Blankenhorn - The 23-year-old struggled in 2018 in Ft. Myers, as many do in the Florida State League, so he began 2019 with the Miracle. After just 15 games, he was promoted to AA Pensacola. He took off from there. In 93 games with the Blue Wahoos, he hit .278 with 18 doubles and 18 home runs. He was the Twins third-round pick in 2015 out of high school in Pennsylvania. He is one of the best athletes in the organization and has power and speed.
    2. OF Gilberto Celestino - The same year Javier signed with the Twins, the Astros signed Gilberto Celestino to a $2.25 million signing bonus. He came to the Twins in 2018 in the Ryan Pressly trade (with Jorge Alcala). He began 2019 by really struggling in Cedar Rapids, but he was on fire the final three months of the season and ended the year with the Miracle. And there, in 30 at-bats, he hit .300/.344/.433 (.767)
    3. OF Luke Raley - Raley was the Dodgers seventh-round pick in 2016 out of Division 2 Lake Erie College. He played well, and in July 2018, he came to the Twins with Devin Smeltzer in the Brian Dozier trade. He started 2019 in Rochester and was playing well when he hurt his ankle and needed surgery. It ended his season though he did play in the Arizona Fall League. He has power, and can play all three outfield positions, though center field is a stretch.

    On the Bubble

    1. RHP Luis Rijo - He came to the Twins from the Yankees in the July 2018 Lance Lynn trade. In 2018 in Cedar Rapids, he impressed by often hitting 95 and 96 mph with his fastball. He went 5-8 with a 2.86 ERA over 107 innings pitched. If he had spent time in Ft. Myers, he would probably be a Given, but could a team stash him for the full 2019 season?
    2. SS Wander Javier - When you sign an amateur to a $4 million signing bonus, you’d like to think that this decision would be easy, and maybe it is. But Javier has unfortunately missed nearly two seasons because of injury (most of 2016 in DSL and all of 2018). His 2019 started late and in 80 games, he hit just .177 with nine doubles and 11 home runs. He also had 17 errors. So, could he play in the big leagues today? Probably not. But he has as much talent as anyone in the organization, so a team might be willing to stash the 20-year-old on their big league roster for his potential.
    3. RHP Griffin Jax - The Twins third-round pick in 2016 out of the Air Force Academy. He signed and while he had commitments to the military, he pitched each summer. He has been able to pitch consistently since early in the 2018 season. He spent most of the 2019 season in Double-A Pensacola but made a couple of starts at Triple-A Rochester too. In 23 starts, he went a combined 5-7 with a 2.90 ERA. In 127 1/3 innings, he walked just 27 and struck out 94 (6.6 K/9).

    The Next

    This is a group that contains some intriguing names. While they aren’t obvious choices, there could be a team that likes them enough to take a shot with a Rule 5 pick.

    1. 1B Zander Wiel - The 26-year-old hit .254 with 40 doubles, five triples and 24 RBI at AAA Rochester in 2019 while performing adequately at first base.
    2. IF/OF Trey Cabbage - The 22-year-old was the Twins 4th round pick in 2015 out of high school in Tennessee. He is incredibly strong and hit a combined 15 homers in 2019 between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers.
    3. LHP Sam Clay - Fourth round pick in 2014 from Georgia Tech, Clay reached AAA in 2019. In 123 2/3 innings above High A, he has not given up a home run. In 69 1/3 innings in 2019 (2/3 of the innings in AA), he walked 28 and struck out 72 batters.
    4. RHP Moises Gomez - The 22-year-old Venezuelan posted a 1-4 record with 10 saves and a 2.91 ERA this season between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. He also struck out 15 batters in 11 innings in the Arizona Fall League (we won’t mention the nine walks).
    5. RHP Jake Reed - We have brought him up as a Must-Add each of the last few seasons. He hasn’t been added, and he hasn’t been selected. Now 27, he is coming off of a 2019 season in which he posted a 5.76 ERA in Rochester (though he struck out 92 batters in 75 innings).
    6. RHP Tom Hackimer - The side-winding 25-year-old was the Twins 4th round pick in 2016 from St. John's. When healthy, he has been very productive. In 56 2/3 innings in 2019, he struck out 75 batters.

    The Rest

    Here is a list of other players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft in the Twins organization.

    • LHP Alex Robinson
    • RHP Miguel De Jesus
    • LHP Lachlan Wells
    • RHP Yancarlos Baez
    • RHP Melvi Acosta
    • RHP Adam Bray
    • RHP Andro Cutura
    • LHP Zach Featherstone
    • RHP Randy LeBlanc
    • RHP Hector Lujan
    • RHP Andriu Marin
    • RHP Ryan Mason
    • LHP Jovani Moran
    • RHP Alex Schick
    • RHP Carlos Suniaga
    • LHP Andrew Vasquez
    • LHP Tyler Watson
    • RHP Tyler Wells
    • IF Joe Cronin
    • SS Yeltsin Encarnacion
    • C Caleb Hamilton
    • 3B Brian Schales
    • OF Aaron Whitefield
    • OF Malique Ziegler

    In the comments below, discuss my ranking and rank them by how you would protect them.

    We saw in 2019, and in 2018 too, that the Twins front office will make moves and keep that Rochester Connection quite active, so being on the 40-man roster is a big deal, but we have also seen that it can be altered frequently throughout a season.

    So, who do you think will be added? Does the fact that the Twins 40-man roster is currently at just 31 and there are others who could be DFAd still make you think they will add as many as eight players in two weeks?

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    The Players Project

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      On 11/5/2019 at 9:43 PM, goulik said:

    I'm Definitely adding Duran, Chalmers, Blankenhorn, Raley and Jax. They are all AA-AAA players and more likely to get taken than anyone at FM or below. Celestino and Javier give me pause because of talent level as does Wiel because he's so close already.

     

    I say, Make a trade that includes some of these before the Rule 5 draft and we don't have to worry about a numbers crunch.

     

    The trade idea always sounds great... until you trade Nick Anderson away... Ha!

     

    But I do agree with that, in theory. 

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    My 40-man adds look like this:

     

    Luis Rijo - just so we can continue to compare him to Gil
    Jhoan Duran - Big Arm and a Falvine acquisition
    Griffin Jax - Think he'd get picked up by the Marlins and dealt at deadline
    Jovani Moran - young LHR (no other reason)

     

    Wander Javier - POT (as in big potential)
    Travis Blankenhorn - plays and looks like a left handed hitting Justin Turner...hope he's that kind of late bloomer

    Gilberto Celestino - should bust out this summer also Falvine Acquisition
    Luke Raley - medium aged OF insurance (or we can fast forward those guys a couple years younger)

     

    I'd part ways with the following:

    Harper - the book has been written and all the teams have it

    Hildy - lost the confidence to fool batters...I wonder if he's not tipping pitches

    Poppen - not as fresh anymore

    Cron - I hope the surgery does wonders for him...too high ARB$$ to keep around

     

    Bringing my total to 35....leaving FA room for 3 starters a reliever and backup catcher

     

    I'll wait for another topic for freeing up some spots via trades...

    Which will have to happen when you look at next years R5 group

    Screen Shot 2019 11 05 At 4.22.37 PM

     

    Here's a picture (which in this case is worth 210 words) of my 40-man roster Sheet

     

    Screen Shot 2019 11 05 At 3.57.02 PM

     

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      On 11/5/2019 at 10:50 PM, Wax off said:

    I think Zander Wiel is a better option over CJ Cron mainly because of the money. He looks ready to go, he's won multiple awards in the system. What more do you want, he's RIPENED? Time to harvest!

     

    What awards has he won in the system?

     

    He's a good player, no doubt... Solid at 1B. Can hit a bit, extra base pop. Solid player. 

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    Some math:

     

    31 - Hildenberger and Ryan Harper = 29

    + 2 starters, + 2 relievers + 1 catcher = 34

     

    That leaves 6 open spots.

     

    I don't see Rijo getting claimed from Cedar Rapids.  Chalmers is a career 4.00 ERA, 1.400 WHIP pitcher with fewer than 22 innings at high A.  He is not going anywhere.  Same with Celestino who has only 6 high A games under his belt.  Someone might be tempted by Javier but he is still pretty raw and hasn't stepped in a single high A game.  Not going anywhere.   Blackenhorn is a player without a position and likely projects as a corner OF, who is just getting familiar with the position and might just not have the bat for the position.  Does not fit the Rule 5 pick profile.

     

    Jax is a must to protect.  In his first full season as a pro player he had a 2.67 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in AA.  Outside chance for an end of the rotation spot after ST. 

     

    5 spots left

     

    Duran has to get protected.  Someone will take a Johan-like chance at him

     

    4 spots left

     

    Raley is MLB-ready and provides the Twins with a RH OF bat who can play CF.  They probably need him more than Cave.

     

    3 spots left, which might allow them some flexibility or keep Ryan Harper

    So for me is Jax, Duran, and Raley only

     

     

     

    Edited by Thrylos
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    My humble opinion:

     

    Givens:

    RHP Jhoan Duran

    2B/3B Travis Blankenhorn

     

    Duran has high upside and Blankenhorn has a chance to become a starting infielder in the near future. Both should be easy adds to the 40 man roster.

     

    Likely to Add:

    RHP Griffin Jax

    OF Luke Raley

    RHP Tom Hackimer

     

    Jax is one of those pitchers who stuffs the statline in the minors, but you have to wonder if he has the pitches to make it in the big leagues. I'd rather give him a chance to prove himself instead of letting another team draft him. Luke Raley is a borderline guy who probably won't end up as a starter, but might become a strong bench bat. I wouldn't hate it if they didn't add him, as I think he could make it through the Rule 5 draft. Hackimer put up some good numbers at AA last year and might wind up pitching the Twins at some point in 2020. He may be getting old, but nowadays it seems like relievers are breaking through at the MLB level in their late 20s.

     

    Likely not to add:

    CF Gilberto Celestino

    INF Wander Javier

    RHP Dakota Chalmers

     

    I don't think Celestino and Javier are going to get drafted, they're simply not close to being ready and had poor seasons last season. I just can't see a team plucking Javier and wasting a whole season he needs in the minors on a major league bench. Celestino had a good final month, but he's several years away at this point. I would guess they'd need to protect him next year.

     

    Chalmers has put his name on this list thanks to his play in the Fall League, but I don't think he's got a good enough track record to get poached.

     

     

    No thanks:

    1B Zander Wiel

    RHP Jake Reed

     

    Wiel's stats look good, until you examine the aggregate and realize his numbers were actually below-average for AAA hitters. Anybody with a pulse can hit for .800+ OPS there. I like the guy, but he's in no danger of being drafted. Jake Reed probably should have been given a shot a couple years ago, but this front office clearly doesn't think much of him. He also had a poor 2019 season with the juiced ball ruining things for him. I would be fine if he's released at some point.

     

    I originally thought this list was going to be much longer, but with Stashak, Alcala, Graterol all on the 40 man and Davis & Diaz traded away, there's no longer a logjam. 

     

    Edited by Danchat
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      On 11/5/2019 at 3:46 PM, Vanimal46 said:

    8 players is a ton to add. I don't think that's a smart use of limited resources. 4, maybe 5 is fine to add. This is the time to save the other 40 man spots for trades and free agent signings.

    roster is at 31 and you need to fill 3 starting pitchers and an infielder that will most likely come from outside the organization. You can protect maximum of 5, and I’d like to see a late inning reliever brought in too, making it 4.

     

    I’d like to see a couple of these assets traded.

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      On 11/6/2019 at 1:36 AM, Mike Sixel said:

    I think Chalmers gets claimed...a former top pick who could be a RP for a bad team next year. I probably protect him due to having space.

     

    I protect Jax and Duran for sure. Everyone else? I'm not sure it matters....

    agreed, I’d add Blankenhorn. He’s getting close and this org is very thin at 3B.
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      On 11/5/2019 at 7:06 PM, 108Stitches said:

    I think you have to protect Tyler Wells. He was just too damn good before his TJ surgery. Most others I agree with though.

     

    Thank you!!! Somebody said it.  Granted, Wells has only reached AA w/32 innings, but he's improved with every advancement up the ladder.  Yes, he's coming off a surgery, but he's 6'8" with stuff.  On top of that, he's committed to becoming better. It was well known he has moved down the route of taking care of himself in the off-season (ironic, I know).  However, someone is going to pick this guy up and play the "stash him card" since he's going to be fresh off an injury.

     

    Unfortunately, it rarely matters in contract talks or adding a man to the 40-man roster, but Tyler Wells won the Harmon Killebrew award and is a standout a person.

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    I am not excited about keeping many of these players on the 40.  My only question with each name is - can a team afford to waste a place on their roster for the entire season to have that player.  Javier is my prime example - he can't compete in the MiLB and you are afraid to lose him to MLB?  Why?  

    Raley?  If you have room fine, but we have Larnach, Kiriloff, Cave, Wade.  Keep him, but not if it jeopardizes someone more important.

     

    How many of these will make the Twins lineup in the next three years?  What are their odds?  Package a batch and make a trade.  Move on and make the Twins into a better team.  

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      On 11/6/2019 at 1:36 AM, Mike Sixel said:

    I think Chalmers gets claimed...a former top pick who could be a RP for a bad team next year. I probably protect him due to having space.

    I protect Jax and Duran for sure. Everyone else? I'm not sure it matters....

     

    Agreed on Jax; if you want to keep him you have to add him; he's definitely a guy who could pitch some middle relief for a crap team, or spot start.

     

    Duran is an easy call.

     

    Chalmers...man, I don't know. There's some interesting upside there, but his control is still rough. I feel like he's a guy who might get claimed but would end up being returned once a team realizes that they can't really send him out to mop up and he's not developing sitting on the back of the bench. But if he's claimed, does that screw up his development path so badly you might not even be able to get him straightened out? I think he might slide through, but the team seems high on him so maybe they don't want to take the risk.

     

    Raley and Blankenhorn are worth adding; both could contribute as soon as next season, there's at least some positional flexibility there...I think these are guys you want in your system for depth or trade at worst.

     

    Celestino...there's talent there, but there's no way he's ready to hit in the majors. Would a team claim him to sit as a defensive replacement all year? Seems unlikely to me. He's barely had a cup of coffee in high A. Kepler was a much higher rated prospect at the time, but the Twins also had a lot more chum on their 40-man, too. I think he slides through and isn't protected.

     

    Javier is the really tough call, I think. There's still so much potential, but he's still a looooong way away. I like the kid, but 40-man spots do have value. With more teams tanking and having the 26th slot could a team grab him and just stash him for the season? It's probably more likely now than it was 5 years ago, so i think he might get a spot. I think this is the hardest call of any of them.

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    Thinking about this more generally, it's possible that our unprotected list will be viewed as more poach-worthy than we might think. Other organizations sure did raid us for coaching talent! Our full-season teams won a lot of games, and you can bet reports got sent upstairs by field people all over the league regarding some of the talent on display.

     

    The FO has already done some things to cut down on the possibility of a Shane Mack-like loss, I guess. We sent Diaz and Davis packing, and graduated guys like Alcala and Stashak to the big club.

     

    I'd still like them to dangle Blankenhorn and Gordon to see if someone bites on one of the two with a great offer of a low-minors prospect package (they won't attract the #2 starter we need). I'd hope they'd do the same with Cave, Rooker, Wade, and Raley with the thought of selling one or even two and protecting the others.

    Edited by birdwatcher
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      On 11/5/2019 at 3:45 AM, Seth Stohs said:
    • OF Luke Raley - Raley was the Dodgers seventh-round pick in 2016 out of Division 2 Lake Erie College. He played well, and in July 2018, he came to the Twins with Devin Smeltzer in the Brian Dozier trade. He started 2019 in Rochester and was playing well when he hurt his ankle and needed surgery. It ended his season though he did play in the Arizona Fall League. He has power, and can play all three outfield positions, though center field is a stretch.

    I'm not sure Raley was playing *that* well when he got hurt, at least not in terms of forecasting his future. He had a 122 wRC+ at Rochester, basically the same as his AA performance when the Dodgers traded him (123). And this was held up by a .403 BABIP -- 30.4% K rate, only 5.1% walk rate. A .214 ISO, but in a league with a .179 ISO, that's not notable.

     

    It was useful for Rochester, but for a 25 year old corner player, it doesn't suggest much of a future in MLB. Is Raley appreciably more valuable than, say, Daniel Palka a few years ago?

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      On 11/5/2019 at 6:21 AM, DocBauer said:

    Raley: Yes. If not for his injury, we are talking about NOT protecting Wade, IMO.

    There wouldn't really have been a way to "not protect Wade" in terms or Rule 5, regardless of what happened with Raley. Wade was added to the 40-man last winter, so you'd have to remove him now to give his spot to someone else, and he'd probably just get claimed on waivers.

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      On 11/6/2019 at 6:46 PM, spycake said:

    There wouldn't really have been a way to "not protect Wade" in terms or Rule 5, regardless of what happened with Raley. Wade was added to the 40-man last winter, so you'd have to remove him now to give his spot to someone else, and he'd probably just get claimed on waivers.

    Sorry, I should have made myself more clear. I meant not protect as in remove. Or Cave if they truly liked Wade more.

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      On 11/5/2019 at 10:41 PM, tvagle said:

     

    My 40-man adds look like this:

     

    Luis Rijo - just so we can continue to compare him to Gil
    Jhoan Duran - Big Arm and a Falvine acquisition
    Griffin Jax - Think he'd get picked up by the Marlins and dealt at deadline
    Jovani Moran - young LHR (no other reason)

     

    Wander Javier - POT (as in big potential)
    Travis Blankenhorn - plays and looks like a left handed hitting Justin Turner...hope he's that kind of late bloomer

    Gilberto Celestino - should bust out this summer also Falvine Acquisition
    Luke Raley - medium aged OF insurance (or we can fast forward those guys a couple years younger)

     

    I'd part ways with the following:

    Harper - the book has been written and all the teams have it

    Hildy - lost the confidence to fool batters...I wonder if he's not tipping pitches

    Poppen - not as fresh anymore

    Cron - I hope the surgery does wonders for him...too high ARB$$ to keep around

     

    Bringing my total to 35....leaving FA room for 3 starters a reliever and backup catcher

     

    I'll wait for another topic for freeing up some spots via trades...

    Which will have to happen when you look at next years R5 group

    Screen Shot 2019 11 05 At 4.22.37 PM

     

    Here's a picture (which in this case is worth 210 words) of my 40-man roster Sheet

     

    Screen Shot 2019 11 05 At 3.57.02 PM

     

    Some interesting names, here. Two MIGHT be added during the season (Kirilloff and Rooker). The whole point of adding someone to the 40-man is SUCH GREAT longterm potential and WILL THEY PLAY in 2020 and you need to have a chance to see that. Remember, the Twins ARE NOT a rebuilding team, so you have to judge EACH roster spot carefully. You can't have a half-dozen guys floating in the minors with a"maybe next year." If that is the case, don't add them. You should also be marekting players, especially those that will come to Rule 5 needs next season, in packages for usable pieces for NOW. It always pains me to see players just walk (i.e. Gonsalves is one, Stewart may be another). You wish you could've gotten something, anything. But, hey, who ever knows.

     

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    I think Duran is the only lock on this list.  While I am not a believer in protecting position players in the rule V I would protect Raley for sure as he is almost MLB ready and with rosters expanding makes sense to be poached by teams not planning to compete next year. 

    Blankenhorn might get poached as well as he reminds me of Niko Goodrum to some extent without the speed and maybe a better bat.    He might not get taken but would hate to lose him at this point.  He might be a tough add though because if he regresses he might be hard to get off the 40 man.

    Celestino is pretty young I agree with the poster who said a team could take him as 4th outfielder as his defense is good and then hope the bat plays.  Pretty big gamble at this stage though and you don’t see many or any teams really try that in Rule V, but with roster expanding and some teams not competing you never know. 

    I would not protect Wander.  His defense is poor and his bat didn’t even play in A ball.  He might have potential but appears to be years away at this point.  I don’t know why a team would saddle themselves with a player like that on their 40 man.

    For pitcher’s I am torn on Chalmers.  He still has control problems although they have gotten better and should get better the further removed from surgery he is.  I just don’t think he is ready for MLB right now and I am not sold yet that he ever will be.  The K rate looks good though and he is a hard thrower so probably needs to be added.

    Also torn on Jax.  I love that he just goes after hitters but the WHIP is a little high and without the K’s 5th starter is likely the best he can do at the MLB level.  Still would hate to lose him and I think he could work in someone’s pen right now so might have to add him.  Tough call there though as we have some higher quality guys not too far off.

    I was pretty high on Wells but coming off surgery he might be a really big gamble for a team to take but his K 9 is good and I have always liked him for a spot in the pen.   Unless he doesn’t come back well I think he will be a guy that makes it.  Not sure if needs protection this year or not but he would be guy I would hate to see leave.

     

    I also like Moran better than most on this site.  He had a K 9 last year of 13 but a horrible WHIP.  He doesn’t throw real hard but he gets such good movement he K’s a lot of guys.  Personally I would rather have Moran on the 40 man than Wisler.  Wisler has one great pitch is 27 and has no options.  Moran has two good pitches is 22 and has a full set of options.  If they think they can fix Wisler why can’t they fix Moran?  I don’t get it.  I think Jovani is underrated but I guess we will see how this plays out soon enough.

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    Now that we are at zero minus 25 hours, I can't see them adding more than 6.  Maybe even only 5.  Yet all 8 of the players you mention would be at risk if not added.  Hopefully, we will learn of a trade before the deadline when they have either moved one of these players for a younger prospect or included one in a bigger trade which will create extra 40-man space.  

     

    On the flip side, it is nice having a organization so strong that this would become an annual problem. 

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      On 11/20/2019 at 12:09 AM, rdehring said:

    Now that we are at zero minus 25 hours, I can't see them adding more than 6.  Maybe even only 5.  Yet all 8 of the players you mention would be at risk if not added.  Hopefully, we will learn of a trade before the deadline when they have either moved one of these players for a younger prospect or included one in a bigger trade which will create extra 40-man space.  

     

    On the flip side, it is nice having a organization so strong that this would become an annual problem. 

     

    I agree I think 5 players is the max and I bet they really would like to only add 3 or 4.  IMO they could stand to lose the position players as position players have been taken less frequently than pitchers in past rule V drafts.  So if they want to gamble i think that is where they gamble.

     

    I think they add Duran, Jax and Blakenhorn.  Technically they can probably afford to lose Raley as they have Cave and Wade with Rooker, Larnach and Kirilloff probably ready fairly soon anyway.  

     

    They might want to protect Rio but he is a ways a way.  Tough call there for me.  I guess we will find out tomorrow.

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      On 11/5/2019 at 10:10 AM, h2oface said:

    "......in 80 games, he hit just .177 with nine doubles and 11 home runs. He also had 17 errors. So, could he play in the big leagues today? Probably not. But he has as much talent as anyone in the organization....."

     

    So much talent, I keep hearing. If he has that much talent, but can only perform at these levels in the low minors, there seems to something drastically wrong with the talent assumption, it seems. I mean seriously, the results of all this talent has been horrible. I get the injuries, but he was healthy for the 80 games, right? These numbers are not supporting the assumptive talent. Even 17 errors in only 80 games. Something is askew.

    Look at how lost Miguel Sano was when he resumed play in 2018 after a serious injury and major surgery. And then look at the last 3 months of 2019. I'm not equating the two players, but performance after a serious injury and/or surgery is unreliable data.

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    Still would like to keep all 8 at the top of the list even though I know that's improbable/impossible. Not sure a couple weeks from the original post has clarified things, but reflection does offer up new perspective.

     

    Duran is a clear given. Maybe the only true given.

     

    I was wavering on Blenkenhorn for a while until I re-read his 2019 and did my own reflection. Where be "setttles" as a position player may be a moot point. Flat out, he is a talented athlete who offers up a lot of potential. There is no such thing as having too much talent on your roster. I know POTENTIAL is an ugly word at times, but even if he never becomes Sano's replacement, or the next 1B, etc, and even though there are other very talented corner OF in the system, he has real "potential" to be a 5 position player on this team. There is real value in that.

     

    Maybe I'm the only one, but I see Raley as a combination of Wade and Cave. A guy who can hit, make some contact, provide power, run the bases a little bit, and play 3 spots, maybe 4. Tne Twins played him a lot in CF last year to see what he could do. Call me crazy, but I think they like him. His strong finish in the AFL also looks good.

     

    I am extremely hopeful on Chalmers. He has a way to go. I'm not sure how other teams view his last 3 starts at Ft Myers and his AFL performance. But I know this FO is big on potential, while the previous FO seemed to look more at "polished" players. If that makes sense. Pitching wise, it feels this FO really loves big arms and wants to work with them and take their "shot" at developing them.

     

    I think 6 is about right and max. That leaves 2 spots left.

     

    Jax is finally getting a chance to play and develop. The SO numbers aren't there, and that is concerning. But look how far he has come with so limited opportunity. Again, this FO loves arm talent and the opportunity to develop it. Sure wish I knew how they view him as he wasn't a draft selection of theirs.

     

    They didn't draft Rijo, but they went out and got him. The early results look really good. But he has yet to appear above low A ball.

     

    We talk about how deep OF is the system, but I'm not certain how deep CF is. After the OK combination of Cave and Wade, each of whom still offers up some potential as solid backup options, your CF prospects are all in A ball and lower, unless you include Lewis as a potential there. Celestino offers up a ton of potential, and finished the season strong, and was acquired by this FO. But 30 AB at high A? Does that really make him enticing to anyone out there as a stash player?

     

    You could make arguments for each of these 3 guys to be protected or not. And really, you wouldn't be wrong. In order of priority, all things considered, I'd say:

     

    Jax....close enough you keep based on potential.

    Rijo...big arm you traded for and want to develop.

    Celestino....tons of potential but willing to lose with other A players in the system.

     

    The elephant in the room, of course, is Javier. No mistake being made, there is NO-ONE who wants to lose him. But reality is, he just isn't ready. Not close. Despite all his talent and potential, could any ML team find reason or room to stash him on their roster for a full season in hopes of what he might become given time to flounder?

     

    The smaller elephant is Tyler Wells. I know he had a great season a year ago and won organizational pitcher of the Year. I know there is potential there. But if a team wants to draft a AA pitcher coming off surgery to stash for a whole season, then bless the team and player. I just don't see it.

     

    IMO, the rest are guys you expect to not be drafted or returned. Weil is the one guy who could potentially come back to bite you. But again, the depth potential should make you feel really good if that happens.

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    I think the Twins almost have to protect high upside guys like Chalmers, Javier, and Celestino. There are way too many MLB teams who aren't really trying to compete and seem like they would be willing to draft and hold onto high-risk/high-reward players in the hopes of stealing talent that could really be good a couple years down the road.

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      On 11/5/2019 at 4:29 PM, Seth Stohs said:

    They're at 31 right now.

    They're actually at 32 because of Odo, who had yet to accept the QO when you wrote the great article. How does having one less roster spot change your decisions?

     

    They'll likely add 2 more starters & a catcher through FA but can DFA/Outright Harper and/or Hildy but a trade could also help with the 40-man. That would mean 7 spots.

     

    Do they protect the top prospects and anyone they think could be taken?

     

    Duran, Raley, Blankenhorn, Celestino, Javier & I'm intrigued by 1B Zander Wiel & LHP Jovani Moran. I also like Jax & Chalmers. It'd be awesome to hear the conversation in the front office about these decisions.

     

    There's a Great Article on MiLB about the best Twins prospects this season with quotes from Twins Director of Player Development Alex Hassan that everyone should check out:

    https://www.milb.com/milb/news/young-arms-muscle-way-onto-minnesota-twins-playoff-roster/c-311878310

     

    Great convo, everyone!

    Edited by TwinsTakes-RD
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      On 11/20/2019 at 6:00 AM, twins_89 said:

    I think the Twins almost have to protect high upside guys like Chalmers, Javier, and Celestino. There are way too many MLB teams who aren't really trying to compete and seem like they would be willing to draft and hold onto high-risk/high-reward players in the hopes of stealing talent that could really be good a couple years down the road.

    That also requires the bad teams somehow developing these very raw players. Javier would be horrendous as an MLB player next year. Horrendous.

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