3 Reasons the Twins Farm System Ranking Continues to Drop

Yes, I am concerned.  We gave away a lot in trades and those players we acquired need to give us real value in the short term since they are replacing long term assets.  Balazovic has regressed in a way that has me puzzled.  The minor league pitching has a long way to go to being the asset we need and with Kiriloff and Larnach out our OF replacements are slim.  The call up of Cave and Beckham did not harm the minors, but have done nothing to help the majors either.  

I would love to see an article on who is next - which minor leaguers are most prepared to be the next call ups.  If I am reading things right - it should be Varland pitching and Helman instead of Cave for right handed OF, and Contrares instead of Beckham (or Palacio). I look forward to your thoughts.

Rankings mean little if the top prospects are very upper level.  Twins have added 3 top prospects from this year's draft.  I am hoping Brooks Lee might make it in 2 - 3 years.  We don't know why, but a lot of prospects also don't work out, so take these rankings with a grain of salt.  Pittsburg with there finishes the last 30 years should have a top flight farm system, they do not.  

The one thing I am concerned about is development, since the Twins have a hard time developing pitchers.  That has to change. 

Well let’s also remember Cavaco and Sabato bothe first round picks haven’t done much. Normally they would be leading your list right now. 

Good article.  I would add a 4th--poor choices on round one draft picks. I think both Cavaco and Sabato were very questionable picks.  Interestingly, they are opposite types, with Sabato being a college power hitter with no defensive position, and Cavaco a toolsy player who was all about projection.  Neither choice has worked out (neither did Brent Rooker).  Yes, I know players have different development trajectories (Miranda for example), but I think we should expect much more from first round picks.  If these two were knocking the cover off the ball, our farm system would look much better.  As is, at this point in time, they are not showing a lot. 

The drop in rankings is only concerning if one forgets that the Twins have a fair nucleus of young players as the post notes. While we can hope that Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, and even Emmanuel Rodriguez are stars soon, the Twins are reasonably set with Jeffers, Kirilloff, Arraez, Miranda, Celestino, and Larnach, while we also have veterans still with some talent like Polanco, Kepler, and Buxton. The Twins could use a stronger catcher and a superstar corner outfielder but they are ok for now. I do think Palacios can play shortstop in MLB and that Wallner could be a fair DH/OF in a few years. I'm not real concerned about the hitting.

The biggest problem with some of the Twins pitching prospects has been their struggles with command. If you watch Balazovic, for example, you see a guy with all the pitches or stuff but he is missing the ability to repeat mechanics (command and control) as well as seeming to get frustrated with his pitches. However, pitching is really difficult and he could still develop into a fine starter. This could be quick or take a few years. Maturity in life comes differently for all of us, in our personal lives as well as in our work and pleasures. So it goes with athletes too and I do think Balazovic can be a very good starting pitcher. One of the things that Cleveland does is get their pitching prospects some time in The Show to see where they must adapt when they invariably return to the minors to work on their sequences. They also use some of these young pitchers in relief before they move to the rotation.We saw this with Civale, Plesac, McKenzie, and Quantrilll, and Sam Hentges may be transitioning next. The Twins have some guys but health is important. Ober, Winder, Balazovic, Varland, and Woods Richardson need to step forward. If they can we can forget where the Twins rank with their prospects.

No, I am not concerned as long as Krilloff and Lewis return to health. I've been waiting for our developing players to hit the big leagues for the last five years and many are here with more to come next year and the year after.

If we had a big league club loaded with older players that were in line to get big pay raises and were relying on our current farm system to replace them I would be very concerned. But with all the young promising players we control for the next 4 years with players like Canterino, Wallner, Julian, Woods Richardson and Lee a year or two away along with Varland, Rodriquez and Miller behind them we have ample ammunition available. 

Add that to the fact we gain 36 million after Correa leaves and having one of the youngest teams in the league means we get great players on the cheap and we will have money to fill in any gaps. 

I follow the box scores of our MLB teams every night. When I do, I don't think a about whether we have the total depth to win the games. I am singularly focused on the players I feel will make it to the league and help our club. Quality over quantity. 

And let's not forget we have a lot of players we just drafted and the next two drafts.

29 minutes ago, RJA said:

Good article.  I would add a 4th--poor choices on round one draft picks. I think both Cavaco and Sabato were very questionable picks.  Interestingly, they are opposite types, with Sabato being a college power hitter with no defensive position, and Cavaco a toolsy player who was all about projection.  Neither choice has worked out (neither did Brent Rooker).  Yes, I know players have different development trajectories (Miranda for example), but I think we should expect much more from first round picks.  If these two were knocking the cover off the ball, our farm system would look much better.  As is, at this point in time, they are not showing a lot. 

This is a good addition. I thought Rooker and Sabato were very questionable choices and Cavaco was quite the gamble. I didn't object to the gamble as much as choosing slow mashers who will not have a position to call home on defense. At least Wallner has a big arm and looks like he could get better with a couple of thousand repetitions in the outfield. 

Teams move up and down the list as players get called up or drafted.  The biggest concerns come when you want to make trades that players are not highly thought of.  I mean look at last year we traded for Martin and SWR.  Some said we got great deal, but now, we are talking about how Martin is possibly a bust.  Heading into 2020 Miranda was not on anyone's radar as a top prospect, but then he clicked in 2021 after minors got back and now talking about possible rookie of year. 

Prospects will rise and fall, but until they prove it in MLB all prospect ranks are good for is what other teams may think of certain players.  It is possible every one of the guys we traded away in the last year do not pan out for the teams we went them to. 

The biggest concern is if year in year out you are in lower range but to drop after making a ton of trades is not surprising. 

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

while we also have veterans still with some talent like Polanco, Kepler, and Buxton.

Kepler?

It's not concerning to me if the Twins make a playoff run this year. 

Andy MacPhail (the GM before Terry Ryan and if the 2 World Series Champions). Once said the goal of a small market team like the Twins is to develop and promote 2-3 players per year to the team..  With the prospects we have, we can continue to do this.  Also it’s not like we need a big crop to develop for next year as we will be competitive at least that long.  In 2024 let’s revisit the rankings.  That’s when it’s likely going to have some relevance again. 

I'm not overly concerned about the overall rankings. The back half of these individual rankings are kinda a crap shoot and someone ranked 75 on one could be 125 on another. The top 10 I'm more focused on as those are expected to be our difference makers. If I look at MLBs top 10 for the Twins I feel really good about our system. A couple other things I'd like to mention is the Twins 2020 draft has, other then Raya, been a dud and the 2021 draft most of the 1st 5 rounds have been traded for current Twins players. Also look at Baseball reference for the average team age. The Twins have the 5th youngest roster at 26.9 years old in MLB. The only teams younger and in the hunt for the playoff spot are the Guardians (when's the last time they signed a veteran player?) and the Blue Jays.  Close to 1/2 of our 40 man has less then 2 years of XP in MLB and most are our prospects. No need to be concerned. 

I'm more concerned about why mlb network has to only show games with NY or California as part of the teams description...I live in Wisconsin so Bally only seems to have Brewers or White Sox...

Am I concerned about the farm ranking? No

Am I concerned about the continued inability to develop pitching? Absolutely. 

Ah, the Austin Martin hype. Another big K by the FO.

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Ryan, Duran, Winder, Jax, Ober, Sands?

This sounds like my kids yelling about there not being any cookies in the house after they just got done finishing off a carton of Oreos.

Ryan wasn't a prospect. Great trade, but zero development there.

No way we're seriously counting Sands as anything right? He was terrible as a starter so far and the "hope," is he'll be a useful bullpen piece.

Winder just went on the IL with his 3rd shoulder issue in a calendar year and it's not like he was a rotation lock prior to that.

Ober hasn't been able to stay healthy and handle even a light work load at any level. 30 something innings this year. If they're holding a rotation spot for a perpetually unavailable guy who profiles as a 4-5 at best then we should yell.

Duran. Yep, success, failed starter but still an overall success.

Jax? Eh, if you want to stretch it to help your case sure. I wouldn't, and even his place in the pen was being questioned recently but whatever.

I count zero reliable starters developed and 1, maybe 2 bullpen pieces. This was it, the development year, and its been a disaster. A better analogy would be promising your kids a cookie or two and then handing them a rice cake.

Farm systems across the baord have improved and gotten better as each team saw players eliminated, so only the better of the best remain, with many others looking in from the prep and indy leagues hoping for a chance to move back into a system because of injury.

Top 100 players? If every team has three, both leagues are well covered. Some may have an additional.

But if you organization is the 10th best, or the 15th best or even the 25th best, it's like the standings in baseball...how many games separate you from the teams in front or the teams in back.

I like someone mentioning the Twins having a slew of nobodies on the major league roster making noise. That's the bread and butter, how they fit into the team each season and how they produce. You can have three top shortstops in the system, but one great one will eliminate the need of the others, who will then have to battle others equally as good at other positions, perhaps.

It's a ty.gh job, constructing a team every season, looking at short-term and long-term depth, dealing with injuries, and it really is a process of stepping stones to the majors as you face better and better competition along the way. Even the grizzled veteran minor league guys that make up many a high-AAA roster are deserving of play, but they are the eternal 27th roster goy, 9th bullpen arm, the starter fightng for a job while the young prospect passes them by.

57 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Seriously?

The "pitching pipeline" propaganda was cool I guess, but it's long past time to give that up.

 

This. The vaunted pitching pipeline is turning out to be a garden hose. 

5 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Am I concerned about the continued inability to develop pitching? Absolutely. 

This. 2022 was supposed to be the make-or-break year for this FO's ability to deliver on the pipeline. It hasn't happened, and there are no promising arms on the horizon. Time to move on.

Joe Maddon on infrastructure... it just might apply to the Twins as well:

......The veteran skipper is enjoying a rare “summer vacation” of sorts, and would only be interested in a managerial or advisory job with a team that had a “strong balance between the old and the new” approaches to the game, and not too tilted in favor of analytics.

It seems clear that Maddon didn’t feel this balance existed in Anaheim.  In general, Maddon felt the Angels’ “infrastructure needs to be improved….It’s the non-sexy stuff that has to get better. It’s not just bright, shiny objects — they have that.  They need to do the infrastructure better in order to get to where we had been in the past.”  Maddon also implied that the front office tried to have too much of an influence on baseball decisions, thus trying to turn the manager into a “middle man” rather than an actual leader in the clubhouse.

“It’s at the point where some GM should really just put a uniform on and go down to the dugout, or their main analytical membrane, he should go down to the dugout….And what happens is when the performance isn’t what they think it should be, it’s never about the acquisitional process,” Maddon said.  “It’s always about the inability of coaches and managers to get the best out of a player.  And that’s where this tremendous disconnect is formed.”

31 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

So we were expecting everyone to pop up and be Atlanta circa ‘95?

You’re being unreasonable with the expectations of inexperienced pitchers.

Everyone!? 

How about one? Just one starting pitcher in year 6 who can throw 120+ innings and be at least a back end rotation staple. I mean talk about setting a low bar....

I'd feel better about the trajectory of our system if we weren't two years into the Kirillof / Larnach experience and they had more than 800 combined plate appearances at the big league level.

14 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Seriously?

The "pitching pipeline" propaganda was cool I guess, but it's long past time to give that up.

 

Lets not forget Jax will be 28 at the start of next season and lets be honest 3.74 ERA doesn't scream shut down back end relief pitcher pitcher, Winder 26 in less than 2 months, and Ober just turned 27 and have combined less than 80 MLB innings this year after pitching 72 and 108 last year, Duran was a top 5 starting pitcher prospect two years ago and now is bullpen pitcher (very good/great bullpen pitcher)

We are talking about the Cole Sands that has given up 16 earned runs in 21 innings this year? Sure he has come up in pitched 5 innings but lets see how that continues to go.

Ryan isn't from any prospect pipeline, he has pitched 9 more minor league innings with the Twins than Paddock, Gray and Mahle. Really good trade but should be considered no different than Gray or Mahle.