With Hope of Contention Gone, What's Next?

I don’t think anyone considers Garver a “mainstay”. Maybe as a back up. His defense is well below average. His offense isn’t good enough to make up for it to justify an everyday role. Nor is it good enough to justify taking others out of the lineup (well, THIS year it would be) to play him at 1b or dh or elsewhere.

A multi-year controllable catcher should definitely be a primary target when trades are made. I have no illusions of coming away with a star catcher with the pieces the Twins will likely try to move. That’s not really what my ideal candidate would be. I want a good, not necesarily great, defensive catcher that can positively contribute offensively. Basically, the 2017 version of Jason Castro.

Do the Twins need the extra 40 man spot for prospects to shield from the rule 5 draft?  if so then Rooker won't get called up as he doesn't need to be on the 40 man for a while.  

I would like to see him called up though.  I just think roster management will come into play.  

I think we are now in line for the 7th or 8th pick in the draft next year.  we may as well keep the veteran fill-ins for a while longer to ensure we can at least succeed in the race to the bottom.  

Also i want to see the front office sign Escobar to an extention if he is interested.  I think this FO is too preoccupied with cashflow and needs to have some stability in players.  with no money on the books if that becomes their MO then players will not want to stay around without some stability. 

One of the more rational reviews of the situation I have seen, thanks.

Like Brandon, I question whether Rooker will be added to the 40-man as that would eliminate Player X from being added come November.  On the other hand, as you point out, if it is 50/50 that he will be on this team next April the experience would be invaluable.

Finally, I question bringing up young relievers.  Will they be used?  Or will the other 5 or 6 just assume all the bullpen innings until their arms fall off?

Thanks again, really enjoyed reading this article.

1. Play Garver as often as he can physically get behind the plate for the remainder of 2018. If he provs that he cannot be the primary catcher in 2019, then go into the off season with acquiring a tier 1 catcher as the top priority.

2. Bring up as many bullpen arms as possible and use them to see if they are viable next year.

3. Extend Rosario and Berrios for whatever it costs.

4. Extend Buxton if he can be signed reasonably.

5. DFA Grossman, Wilson, and Belisle this afternoon.

6. Start thinking about who will replace Molitor this off season.

7. Lower beer prices (oops, got carried away).

What I'd like to see for the rest of the season is some extended chances for a number of pitchers at AAA. The Twins need to trade Lynn and give a shot to Romero, Mejia, Gonsalves, Sledgers, and Littell where they get at least get 5-10 starts before being sent back down. Similarly in the bullpen I'd trade Rodney and Duke (and waive Belisle) and give real month long opportunities to May, Busenitz, Curtis, Duffey, Moya, and Bard.

No. they won't even call some of them up to replace Belisle....how good can they be? Every year people worry about the 40 man, and every year they don't lose anyone that really matters ....

 

Granite is expendable, if you trust Cave and Wade at all. That's an easy one.

 

But me? I promote Rooker to AAA now, and don't worry about the majors until he shows he can do AAA

Agree that most years there are several prospects many of us fear losing and they aren't selected.  However, just last year we lost Chargois, Bard and Burdi.  Bard came back, but Burdi was stashed on the 60-day DL.  Chargois has been effective with the Dodgers and could have helped this bullpen...should they have used him.

When I look at the players available this November, I question if they will have enough room to protect all that are real prospects. Thus, the concern for adding Rooker later this year...although I will agree the experience would be valuable.

I guess if I am Derek Falvey, I put all my chips on the table for 2019.

That means banking on big turnarounds (and health) from Sano AND Buxton.

That means keeping (and extending or QOing) Escobar and Dozier. If they still leave, so be it.But, I definitely QO both. Probably not going to get a much better prospect for either in return anyway.

Keep Reed and Gibson. Possibly look at extending Gibson. At least feel him out.

That doesn't leave much in terms of tradeable assets, I know. Rodney, Duke, Odorizzi and Lynn is about it. None of whom will fetch much, certainly nothing likely to be useful in 2019.

Get the guys that need to be evaluated as possible contributors in 2019 up here and in games. Obviously, that becomes complicated if the Twins don't trade Escobar or Dozier, but I don't think so. There is still a DH spot for someone.

I don't think Dozier would accept the QO, Escobar probably will. Meaning there is still an infield opening. Maybe that's Sano. Maybe it is some combination of Gordon, Adrianza and Austudillo.

I think Mauer retires. I just don't see him being able to play everyday and in this era of 13 man pitching staffs there is no way a team can carry two guys that essentially only play first base.

So, what does "my" August 30th roster look like?

sp Berrios

sp Romero (depending on IP)

sp Gibson

sp Mejia

sp Santana?

sp ALT1 Slegers

sp ALT2 Littell

cl Reed

rp Pressly

rp Rogers

rp Hildenberger

rp Moya

rp Busenitz

rp May

rp Curtiss

rp ALT1 Bard

rp ALT2 Littell

rp ALT3 Duffey

c Garver

c Austudillo

1b Mauer

2b Dozier

3b Escobar

ss Polanco

lf Rosario

cf Buxton

rf Kepler

dh Sano

if/of Adrianza

of Cave

I don't suspect Mauer or Dozier will play much in September. Maybe 3 starts a week. As for Erv, if he does somehow manage to make it back this year, I think it would be a nice gesture for the Twins to allow him to take his turn every 5th day to showcase himself for his next contract.

September call ups:

Gonsalves

Gordon

whoever is next in line as a catcher to allow Austudillo to play a super sub role in September.

Of course, the success of this all banks on Sano and Buxton. If they don't come through next year, the Twins basically will be starting at square one around Berrios, Romero, Gordon, Rooker and maybe Rosario.

DFA Wilson, LoMo and Belisle. Bring up Navarro, Rooker and Busenitz. Then play musical roster spots with half the pitchers in AAA, plus Gordon and Wade.

I agree-terrific article.

Here are the things I would consider. First, implement terry1947’s option #5. Immediately, as suggested. Wilson will have my eternal admiration for how he handled that heat situation in Chicago. But, really, 9 for 79? .114 average? As a major league player?

If Garver is so terrible behind the plate, tell him how he needs to improve and PLAY him!

How can he improve if he sits and watches? What’s the worse that can happen?

More losses?? That’s hilarious! The season is gone- we needed some answers for 2019 and beyond. I might understand if our pitching staff was comprised entirely of rookies, but that is hardly the case.

I’d pitch Gonsalves for the same reasons. He has been mostly good at Rochester, but has had a few stinkers. He also has seen Slegers, Romero, Littel, and Mejia called up ahead of him. Personality or performance problems with him? I think it is unfair to bring him up in September and give him 4 starts and base those stats on whether he is a factor in 2019. I think you can tell a lot about a player when he fails........(if that happens).

Finally, please.......let’s not look for scenarios when the Twins trade for Realmuto or anyone else! When is the last time the Twins made a deal like that for a good/great player in their prime? (Answer-never)Plus, right now, Minnesota is not a destination town for any stars.

1. Play Garver as often as he can physically get behind the plate for the remainder of 2018. If he provs that he cannot be the primary catcher in 2019, then go into the off season with acquiring a tier 1 catcher as the top priority.2. Bring up as many bullpen arms as possible and use them to see if they are viable next year.3. Extend Rosario and Berrios for whatever it costs.4. Extend Buxton if he can be signed reasonably.5. DFA Grossman, Wilson, and Belisle this afternoon.6. Start thinking about who will replace Molitor this off season.7. Lower beer prices (oops, got carried away).

Maybe they can add a bigger selection of craft brews at domestic beer prices

DFA Brian Wilson? What, now you don't like the Beach Boys?

No, s/he doesn't like the 2010 Giants.

Since I don't think there is any chance of Molitor being fired, the following is conceptual at best. Knowing it will be almost impossible for Falvine to fire Molitor anyway, I would tell him that here's the deal: We are in analytical mode. We will supply the roster with The players we want analyzed. You will play them. Do that and your won lost record is irrelevant. Don't do it, and we will move heaven and earth to see you to the door. Again, my first, second and third choice is to see him simply gone. Preferably before the ASG. But that ain't gonna happen folks.

Regarding Molitor, I think I stated my "should be" scenario some time ago.

Basically, if I'm Falvey, I sit down with Jim Pohlad and say, "Well, we tried it with your guy, and here we are. Again.

So, decision time sir. Him or me."

I just want to step back a second from the assumption that the season is over, and the games are meaningless, once we are out of the playoff hunt. You know what? They are all meaningless! It's a game! And games are for fun!

You don't have to win the World Series to enjoy baseball. It's also fun to win GAMES! Every game counts!

If the Twins' young hitters rebounded in the second half, and we won more games than we lost the rest of the way out, I would not say, who cares, it's too late, these games give me no joy because we are too far out of it for them to mean anything. I would go, yeah! We are winning again, and I like it! I'd have happy thoughts, like, I knew it! This team isn't as bad as looked. The awesome young core is back! Maybe we are not as far off as we thought! Maybe we were right all along -- this team could make some noise, once people get back from injuries, and live up to their potential! What would be bad about that???

No question, it was much more fun last year when those games were part of a pennant race.  The chance to knock the Yankees out of the playoffs gave them ten times more awesomeness. 

But was last year a failure because we flopped in the playoffs? It sucked, but we had a good ride! Remember how astonishing it was to have all our players hitting at once? 

That's why it was so hard this year when it stopped (except for the Eds). It would be a huge relief to me to see that wasn't a flash in a pan, and all that hitting talent is still there, waiting to explode!

Personally I would be thrilled to watch Buxton, Sano, Kepler, and Polanco tear it up in the second half again, even in "meaningless games."

Which is not to say, don't ditch the veterans who won't be here next year anyway, they are just clogging the way for the young people from reaching their potential. Is Litell, Mejia, Slegers, or Gonsalves more likely to make it into a playoff rotation? Maybe now is the time to find out! (As long as you don't short-circuit the development needed to reach their potential, of course.)

But Belisle and LoMo wouldn't be missed. Same for the good rentals, like Lynn, Rodney, Duke -- I have no sentimental attachment to them, so by all means, trade them for someone who might help next year, and see what the AAA guys got. 

But unless we got something of real, significant value for Dozier and Escobar, I'd rather see them play out the string, and maybe help the team  have a second half worthy of our pre-season expectations. Wouldn't it be fun to finally see that lineup of Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Rosario, Escobar, Buxton, and Sano firing on all cylindars?

I agree there's no point watching old guys who won't be here next year win an occasional game. But trading off every veteran for pennies on the dollar, and slogging through a depressing second half with AAAA players, would not be fun either. I'd still like to see a good team, based on a core of players we can imagine growing into a contender. So if keeping a half dozen veterans around puts them over .500 in the second half, I'm fine with that, too.

I'm just saying, every win between now and October is a real, live win, a genuine victory. You have every right to celebrate winning GAMES, not just championships. Let's not lose sight of that. I'm all for dreaming about the potential of a glorious future, too--that's part of what makes little successes fun. I just don't think we should devalue good things that happen this year because we won't also win a championship. Take what you can get. The first half sucked -- but maybe the second half won't!

What I'd like to see for the rest of the season is some extended chances for a number of pitchers at AAA. The Twins need to trade Lynn and give a shot to Romero, Mejia, Gonsalves, Sledgers, and Littell where they get at least get 5-10 starts before being sent back down. Similarly in the bullpen I'd trade Rodney and Duke (and waive Belisle) and give real month long opportunities to May, Busenitz, Curtis, Duffey, Moya, and Bard.

You stole my post!  Glad you beat me to it.  I will add to trade Odorizzi and if Santana comes back move him too.  This is audition time and at least it gives fans something to watch and cheer for.

It is important to say that putting the young arms in the rotation and the BP is not giving up, nor is it tanking.  Lynn, LOMO, and others have already taken care of that.  Give us some excitement!  For that reason I am ready to say thanks and good-bye to Mauer too.  Mauer is a solo player - no enthusiasm, no visible energy.  It is time to recognize what he was, but not be fooled by what he is.

The real question to ponder is this - what if Buxton, Sano and Kepler are as good as they are going to get?  What if none of them meets our expectations?  Through the 90 loss seasons we said wait until they get here.  Now in another 90 loss season we say wait until they get back.   What is, when is the payoff?

Great post! And a lot of really good comments! Going to try to hit all positions quickly and directly:

ROTATION:

Trade Lynn for best prospects(s) you can get. Keep the Rochester shuttle moving, employee a variable 6 man rotation maybe, and get Romero, Slegers, Mejia and Littell as many opportunities as possible.

Not sure a 100% healthy Santana is gone for sure. Could receive a low 1 year offer with incentives with ML invite. But the kids need to pitch!

BULLPEN:

Trade Rodney and Duke. Cut ties with Belisle. Audition the kids and keep that AAA shuttle going. Some of the young starters can pitch out of the pen between starts, hence part of the 6 man rotation.

CATCHER:

Not sure how to address this, really. But for now, get rid of Wilson and let Garver play. He calls a good game. There is potential with his bat. How will you ever know what he can do or become sitting him for a 34/35 vet who can barely hit above .100?

Austadillo COULD be a decent 25th man. But he can catch, at least a little. How about seeing how well? What's he going to do, lose games for you?

INFIELD:

Keep Escobar and re-sign him. Let's not be silly here! Trade Dozier for what you can. Since Gordon has to be added to the 40 man anyway, give him a taste. He may not be ready yet, but it might give him something to build on.

Don't know what Joe will want to do, or if he's cooked, but keep playing him to see if 2017 and the first half of this season is for real. He's auditioning for himself, and the organization.

OUTFIELD:

Keep playing Kepler and working with him! Young and talented, pretty much skipped AAA, loads of potential, and really, started a step back of most HS age players considering his background.

Might be time to just move on from Grossman. Keep playing Cave. There is potential there as a useful piece. Not convinced Wade is ready, but see Gordon comments above.

Excited about Rooker and his potential. And I'd like him to see even a little AAA time to get ready for 2019. But he literally has just over 1 year or pro experience at this point. And with 40 man roster decisions to be made, I'd hesitate a ML audition at this point.

It is important to say that putting the young arms in the rotation and the BP is not giving up, nor is it tanking.  Lynn, LOMO, and others have already taken care of that.  Give us some excitement!  For that reason I am ready to say thanks and good-bye to Mauer too.  Mauer is a solo player - no enthusiasm, no visible energy.  It is time to recognize what he was, but not be fooled by what he is.

 

The real question to ponder is this - what if Buxton, Sano and Kepler are as good as they are going to get?  What if none of them meets our expectations?  Through the 90 loss seasons we said wait until they get here.  Now in another 90 loss season we say wait until they get back.   What is, when is the payoff?

Hang in there. Mauer is past his prime, but he is family and if he wants to play next year, he will. Leadershipwise, he is not a rah rah guy. But neither was Lou Gehrig. Give him some room.

I think the rest of the year we identify who we want to go to battle with going forward. Eddie and Eddie and Buck, and Keps and Miggy and Joe.... Polanco and Gordon or Doze... doesn't seem as critical. We got middle infielders. 

I'm not worried.

Guys this is only baseball. It is the  national pastime, not the national obsession

This team has not played smart all year.  Everyone seems to take a turn, BUT, Garver is leading the pack in knuckle-headed plays.  Unless he hits much closer to .300 with a little power there is no need to consider him as anything more than a backup.  When you look at what we have in the pipeline at the catcher position it's embarrassing.  Rortvedt is at least 3 years away and I am not sure there is anyone else to talk about.  Hopefully we can pick up some talent at this position with trades.  We should be looking for value and the only untouchables should be Berrios, Rosario and Buxton. Otherwise if we can make deal that improves this team for next year, do it.  The sad part is I am not sure there are many options for our players to bring a talent that will help us next year.  

I think the likeliest trade is Lynn. He is a known commodity and has been solid since his terrible start. Santana isn’t going anywhere, unless he comes back and makes several good starts with a hiccup. That means August deadline, not July, if it happens at all. I don’t think anyone offers enough for Gibson to be traded, and I’m ok with that. He has been a good piece to have for a year now. I think you run Slegers and Mejia out there now, and Gonsalves and Littell in September. If anyone wants Rodney or Duke, you say yes. If Belisle’s mom calls and asks to trade for him, say yes. Otherwise, pay him the rest of his money and tell him to buy the most comfortable couch on the market.

If anyone inquires about Dozier or Lomo you say yes. If anyone asks about Escobar, you ask for a lot and give him a QO if he’s still around at the end of the year unless you can sign him for a reasonable 2-3 year deal. If anybody asks about Buxton, you think real hard, but say no. He will figure it out sometime next year. If anybody asks about Sano, you say no. He will be a full beast next year or maybe even August.

It sure would be nice if they didn’t lose until after the All Star break and make everyone complain when we still do the right thing and makes some trades.

At this rate I think it's more likely that we see the return of Johan Santana before we see Ervin Santana,

I would think that Lance Lynn might end up being our most valuable trade chip. It seems to me that a contending club in need of another solid starting pitcher (albeit, one that can't seem to pitch more than 5 or 6 innings at a time) would grab him.

I'm hoping that Dozier catches fire this month and some team will take a gamble on him  having another torrid second half, along with the "veteran leadership" factor. But which contending team might be needing a second baseman down the stretch? Someone mentioned the Mariners, who are without Cano for the time being (and who would be ineligible for the playoffs even after he comes back), but I can't think of any other team off the top of my head.

Very well written and thought out article.  The top of my priority list for contract extensions is Eduardo Escobar, I'm picturing him as our starting 3B in 2019 with Miguel Sano switching to 1B with Joe Mauer either retiring or not being offered a contract.   I agree on giving Mitch Garver more time behind the plate to work on his defensive, Bobby Wilson .115 BA is too painful to watch try ti hit, and let Astudillo share some reps behind the plate and see what he's got.  With the return of Buxton and Sano imminent, and the improvement in Jake Cave, we may be seeing the end of the Robbie Grossman era in Minnesota as we know it.  Lynn and Duke will be on the move for sure but I can't see much other than that.  I'm very curious (and optimistic) to see what the Twins line-up does once the reset button is hit with Buxton and Sano in it.

I just want to step back a second from the assumption that the season is over, and the games are meaningless, once we are out of the playoff hunt. You know what? They are all meaningless! It's a game! And games are for fun!

 

You don't have to win the World Series to enjoy baseball. It's also fun to win GAMES! Every game counts!

 

If the Twins' young hitters rebounded in the second half, and we won more games than we lost the rest of the way out, I would not say, who cares, it's too late, these games give me no joy because we are too far out of it for them to mean anything. I would go, yeah! We are winning again, and I like it! I'd have happy thoughts, like, I knew it! This team isn't as bad as looked. The awesome young core is back! Maybe we are not as far off as we thought! Maybe we were right all along -- this team could make some noise, once people get back from injuries, and live up to their potential! What would be bad about that???

 

No question, it was much more fun last year when those games were part of a pennant race.  The chance to knock the Yankees out of the playoffs gave them ten times more awesomeness. 

 

But was last year a failure because we flopped in the playoffs? It sucked, but we had a good ride! Remember how astonishing it was to have all our players hitting at once? 

 

That's why it was so hard this year when it stopped (except for the Eds). It would be a huge relief to me to see that wasn't a flash in a pan, and all that hitting talent is still there, waiting to explode!

 

Personally I would be thrilled to watch Buxton, Sano, Kepler, and Polanco tear it up in the second half again, even in "meaningless games."

 

Which is not to say, don't ditch the veterans who won't be here next year anyway, they are just clogging the way for the young people from reaching their potential. Is Litell, Mejia, Slegers, or Gonsalves more likely to make it into a playoff rotation? Maybe now is the time to find out! (As long as you don't short-circuit the development needed to reach their potential, of course.)

 

But Belisle and LoMo wouldn't be missed. Same for the good rentals, like Lynn, Rodney, Duke -- I have no sentimental attachment to them, so by all means, trade them for someone who might help next year, and see what the AAA guys got. 

 

But unless we got something of real, significant value for Dozier and Escobar, I'd rather see them play out the string, and maybe help the team  have a second half worthy of our pre-season expectations. Wouldn't it be fun to finally see that lineup of Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Rosario, Escobar, Buxton, and Sano firing on all cylindars?

 

I agree there's no point watching old guys who won't be here next year win an occasional game. But trading off every veteran for pennies on the dollar, and slogging through a depressing second half with AAAA players, would not be fun either. I'd still like to see a good team, based on a core of players we can imagine growing into a contender. So if keeping a half dozen veterans around puts them over .500 in the second half, I'm fine with that, too.

 

I'm just saying, every win between now and October is a real, live win, a genuine victory. You have every right to celebrate winning GAMES, not just championships. Let's not lose sight of that. I'm all for dreaming about the potential of a glorious future, too--that's part of what makes little successes fun. I just don't think we should devalue good things that happen this year because we won't also win a championship. Take what you can get. The first half sucked -- but maybe the second half won't!