Will Hunter Greene Haunt The Twins?

The Padres got Dave Winfield, so I say we take Hunter Greene. So there. Ptbbb!

I also read that his camp is trying to steer away from the Reds and their pitching program, not the Twins. I think their fear is going to Cincy at 2 more than anything.

What percentage of drafted players make the major leagues?

-- NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team: Less than eleven in 100, or 10.5 percent.

-- High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLB team: About one in 200, or 0.5 percent.

Just sayin' :  temper your expectations...    

Matt Bush or Justin Verlander?

Justin Upton or Ryan Zimmerman

Hochevar or Kershaw?

Moustkas or Price

Beckham or anybody

Mark Appel or Kris Bryant.

Harper or Machado is win/win

Curse of being number 1  Despite the last few years a Mauer over a Pryor.

 

Greene has grown up and played almost exclusively on the West Coast. With the Padres sitting with the number three pick, rumors have been swirling about Greene wanting to stay close to home. Baseball America reported,"The rumors of he and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret."

Any chance that the Padres could have a Rick Spielman moment in their war room on draft day and trade up to #1?

Hunter Greene's ceiling is immensely high, but I haven't seen a scout list him as a generational/can't miss type. If the twins draft him I will be excited because they believe they have a plan in place to help him reach his potential. That said, if they dont take him and instead take someone else (I am holding out hope for Kyle Wright because his ceiling is also that of a top of a rotation starter but his floor is still that of a starting pitcher) I won't be disappointed.

Here's what I think I know; the older you get the more you realize there are few black-and-white decisions, they're all clouded in gray. And the more important the decision, the grayer it becomes. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. And the more time available to make the call, the more agonizing it becomes. So eventually you just say the hell with it and flip a coin. Let the chips fall where they may.

But our new front office is supposedly made up of stats guys, including a pitcher swami. The college guys are going to have more stats to justify their selection than the high school player simply because they have more experience. My call, the swami goes with the stats and takes a college player.

By the way, Sports Illustrated is better at selecting Swimsuit models than it is at selecting athletic talent. Not that it's necessarily a bad thing...

I went and saw 3 games. He pitched in two of them. I don't like the idea of another high school pitcher.... but he really looked good. And smooth. And hit a couple of homers. I bet they take him.

It's a tough spot for a brand new front office, take Greene who is by most accounts the best prospect in the draft or go with the lower ceiling pick with less risk. The nightmare scenario is that in 4 years Greene is in the majors and looks like a superstar while the guy the Twins pick is a meh middle of the rotation pitcher. Personally, I go for the home run and draft Greene.

You can't trade draft picks in baseball. 

I think you can trade those competitive balance picks now?   The next CBA they might even up it up more, to allow all picks to be traded.  

Or maybe I'm wrong on the competitive balance picks....in that case, never mind. 

As fans, we tend to fall in love with the prospect who throws the hardest.  Probably because that's the easiest measurement.  But even the hardest throwers have to have good secondary pitches to remain effective in the majors.  So I think that is what the scouts have to figure out, does McKay or Wright have the secondary pitches to be at least a #2 in the majors?  If so, I think you go with one of them.  

Have any high schoolers that threw 100 made it to the majors?  The only one I remember is Colt Griffin, and he never got close to the majors.  It seems like there have been a lot more in recent years, but I don't remember who they were or if they've advanced very far.

I wouldn't hate if they took Greene. I wanted him for the longest time, but now I'm leaning towards Wright due to secondary pitchers. With Greene it's all about whether he will or won't develop plus or at least above average secondary pitches. Wright already has those.

I have a legit concern that Greene only becomes an Aroldis Chapman. I absolutely don't want a closer/RP at 1-1 and it's possible that's all he becomes on the pitching side. With Wright, I feel like he's going to be a 1, 2 or 3 in the rotation due to his stuff. And people still think Wright can improve also. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but he has the stuff.

I've been reading up on Gore lately too and even he is sounding like a better choice than Greene as he also has the secondary pitches too. It seems like the only reason Greene is being mentioned way more than Gore is because of the FB mph. And from what I've read Gore's fastball is above average with room to get to plus so we're barely talking about much of a difference here on the FB and someone who already has better secondary pitches and better control in general. Maybe articles comparing Gore to Kershaw are brainwashing me.

So I'd be fine with Wright, Gore or Greene but I think I'd want them in that order. Greene is definitely third for me though, but as I said I wouldn't hate if they took him. I'd hope he would work out just like I would any other player.

My new mock is up:

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/531/entry-8889-mock-draft-20-2017-mlb-draft/

These are the decisions that make me glad I'm not the GM.  Although I do have to bark a little bit about calling Wright or McKay consolation prize "Safe Picks". 

By all accounts Greene just oozes potential, that 100 MPH on the radar gun screams sexy, but... I'm not sold on that alone.   2 Seam/4 Seam, what kind of movement does it have?   Can he locate consistently against good hitters?    Can he change velocity and or arm angles?   How will he respond the first time he makes a great pitch that a hitter deposits in the parking lot?

I know a local guy from our area that was drafted by the Red Sox.   He could hit 96/97 in HS but had no real secondary pitches (his words, not mine).   He had always just blown it past hitters his whole career.   He gets to rookie ball and makes a great pitch to a hitter who promptly delivered it to the parking lot.  Coach tells him afterwards, 'That was a heck of a pitch, but up here everyone can hit those'.   Four years later, the player is out of baseball (although injuries didn't help any either).

Guess my point is that just being able to throw hard is not a guarantee of success and the other options that the FO is considering are potentially really good players as well. 

That being said, it the Twins do decide to "Go Greene" I will still root for him to do well and succeed and hope things turn out for him.   I'm just glad that I don't have to make that choice.

If only this were NFL format.  Then we would be advertising that we are taking Greene no matter if we are or not.  SD would then trade up with us and we would get who we probably wanted anyway along with another of their picks or we could get a prospect in the trade....but it isn't the NFL draft.  Take him, sign him, and then trade him to SD for a boatload of prospects.

I don't think you can trade recently drafted players either. There's (at least used to be) a waiting period of 6 or 12 months after signing.

Reservations I have toward each pitcher:
Greene – HS development time, Lack of secondary pitches, If his FB had better movement wouldn’t he have had a lot more Ks?
McKay – Lack of MLB velocity, Many ‘experts’ peg him as a #3
Wright – Command, Took him a while to get going this year, Last couple of starts before the draft will weigh heavily
Gore - HS development time, Could be best in the draft, but that’s what they said about Kohl Stewart

I have started to lean more toward Wright. If McKay has Greg Maddux control then drafting anyone else is a mistake, but that is unlikely.

I just hope they get it right.

EDIT: can't spell for sh**

I don't think you can trade recently drafted players either. There's (at least used to be) a waiting period of 6 or 12 months after signing.

It was 12 months just a year or two ago.

I thought I had read that that may change, but don't know where it stands right now.

McKay – Lack of MLB velocity, Many ‘experts’ peg him as a #3

 

As a pitcher, ya a #3 maybe a #2 so a 2.5-3.5 WIN pitcher.  At the plate, his bat is getting a future 60 grade with a 70 grade raw power, and 60 game power, which would make him a 3.5-4 WIN offensive player

As a pitcher, ya a #3 maybe a #2 so a 2.5-3.5 WIN pitcher.  At the plate, his bat is getting a future 60 grade with a 70 grade raw power, and 60 game power, which would make him a 3.5-4 WIN offensive player

Very interesting way to look at it....