Twins Video
Some might be frustrated by the idea that ace types like Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields will probably not be on Ryan's radar. But this is understandable for a couple reasons. For one thing, there's already some congestion in the rotation with seven starters currently in line to vie for five spots. Secondly, there's the whole rebuilding thing. Does it make sense to commit $100-plus million over five-plus years when the roster is in such a state of flux?
Given their present circumstances, it makes more sense for the Twins to seek a pitcher who carries less risk and commitment. That doesn't mean they can't bring in some considerable upside.
When the Twins signed Hughes about a year ago, I liked the move quite a bit for three principal reasons:
1) He was young, with success in his past.
2) He had good peripherals.
3) He had been pitching under unfavorable circumstances.
Hughes was coming off a season in which he'd gone 4-14 with a 5.19 ERA for the Yankees, enabling the Twins to get him at a bargain price of $8 million per year, but those three factors made him a good bet to rebound and improve with a change of scenery. I don't think anyone could have anticipated his turnaround to be quite so drastic, but the success of this signing was hardly random.
With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to gauge this year's free agent pitching market and identify some guys in similar situations, with depressed value but deeper potential. The Twins have no need for another back-end starter -- they have plenty of those already -- so the focus should be on finding a pitcher who offers at least a realistic chance of being more than that, without paying a premium or forfeiting a draft pick.
Here are a few names worth keeping an eye on:
Justin Masterson - RHP, 29 years old
Masterson is the starter we suggested signing in our blueprint for the Offseason Handbook. In 2013, he was an All-Star, posting a 3.45 ERA over 193 innings for the Indians; in 2014, he was a mess, registering a 5.88 mark in 128 frames between Cleveland and St. Louis. The Cardinals demoted him to the bullpen in September and left him off their playoff roster.
Despite the brutal results this year, Masterson did two important things quite well: missing bats (19.6 K%) and getting grounders (58.2 GB%). His .339 BABIP is bound to come back to Earth and if the Twins could bring his walks under control after he posted a career-high 4.8 BB/9 rate, there's a good shot he could return to his previous form. He may be seeking a one-year make-good deal, which would be ideal for the Twins since they still have multi-year commitments to Hughes and Ricky Nolasco, and want to maintain flexibility for incoming prospects.
Brett Anderson - LHP, 26 years old
He's consistently been very good when healthy, but he has also been consistently unhealthy. The Rockies took a gamble on his talent last offseason by trading with Oakland to bring him in, and the southpaw was great when on the mound, posting a sterling 2.91 ERA in eight starts... but, he only made eight starts.
This time it was a bulging disc in his back that derailed Anderson, but he's expected to be ready for spring training and he's still extremely young by free agent standards. He seems like a good fit for the Twins, who could afford to be patient and endure setbacks because of their depth and relatively low expectations.
Chad Billingsley - RHP, 30 years old
Billingsley is coming off back-to-back lost seasons -- he threw a total of 12 innings in 2013 and never made it to a big-league mound in 2014. His right arm has gone through some major turmoil; first Tommy John, then surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in the same elbow. He's probably the toughest guy to trust on this list, but he might come on a non-guaranteed minor-league deal and the upside is there. Prior to 2013, he had a 3.66 career ERA, and had made 25 or more starts in five straight seasons.
Josh Johnson - RHP, 30 years old
Like Billingsley, Johnson has had a really rough go of it the last two years. In 2013, he made only 16 starts (with a 6.20 ERA) while battling elbow soreness. He underwent offseason surgery to remove bone spurs from the elbow, but that did little good as he ended up needing Tommy John surgery early in the 2014 campaign. When healthy, he's got plenty of juice in his arm, with the ability to dial it up into the mid-90s and blow away opposing hitters.
Franklin Morales - LHP, 28 years old
Morales has long been reputed for his electric stuff, but the numbers have rarely lined up. The Venezuelan has gone from Colorado to Boston and back to Colorado, frustrating coaches with his inconsistency and shaky command. But the ability is there. He's still only 28 and was at one point viewed as one of the best prospects in the game (Baseball America ranked him No. 8 overall in 2008).
Carlos Villanueva - RHP, 30 years old
The right-hander is an enigma. During stints with the Brewers, Blue Jays and Cubs, he has constantly bounced back and forth between the rotation and bullpen, failing to establish himself despite solid secondary numbers buoyed by good control and a quality K-rate. It'd be hard to rely on Villanueva as a full-time starter at this point, but he's definitely worth a look; his 175-to-59 K/BB ratio in Chicago over the past two seasons is impressive and helps explain the disparity between a 4.27 ERA and 3.59 FIP.
Brandon Morrow - RHP, 30 years old
Things were looking bright for Morrow back in 2011. As a 26-year-old, he made a career-high 30 starts for the Blue Jays and led the league with a 10.2 K/9 rate. Since then, durability has unfortunately been a huge issue for him, as his games-started totals have dropped from 30 to 21 to 10 to six. In 2014 he was limited to 33 innings by a finger injury. Some believe his future may be as a reliever, where he could stay healthier and maximize his arsenal, but I think he's worth a gamble and he might like another opportunity to start.
MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
— Become a Twins Daily Caretaker
Recommended Comments
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.