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By all accounts, the starting rotation has impressed upon their arrival to summer camp. It appears each starter will be carrying a nearly full workload on day one because of the shape they’ve kept themselves in. Even still, two length options makes sense. Afterall, a disrupted routine this spring could make injury more of a possibility, not to mention the pandemic still relevant across the U.S. “Length option” however greatly decreases the pool to consider for candidates. There are five likely competitors to take a look at.
Jhoulys Chacín - Chacín was brought in on a minor league deal as a reclamation piece to compete for the 5th rotation spot. Coming off a season with an ERA over 6, he hasn’t really dazzled for the Twins thus far either as he was likely falling behind in the running for the rotation before spring training was shut down. He still sports a solid slider that gets a decent amount of whiffs, however he hasn’t shown much else over the last year. His durability paired with being two years removed from 190+ innings of a 3.50 ERA could still be enough for the Twins to try and work out whatever went wrong. As the fantasy baseball industry loves to say: “Chacín will pitch well when Jhoulys expect it”.
Randy Dobnak - We all know Dobnak who likely missed out on the 5th rotation spot with the return of Hill. Coming off a fantastic 1.59 ERA in his rookie year, he appears to be a steady and capable pitcher. He likely cracks the rotation with several MLB teams, just not the depth rich Twins in 2020. That being said, Dobnak is a Major League calibre pitcher and should be at the top of the list for one of the final spots.
Devin Smeltzer - With a ceiling limited by his fastball velocity, Smeltzer’s funkiness and pitching smarts still make him a solid option. Coming off a rookie season with a 3.86 ERA, some still argue his skill set would be best utilized in the bullpen eventually, and now he’s reportedly developed an impressive slider. That paired with him being a left hander (something the Twins really do need) who can provide length may just make Smeltzer a near sure thing to make the opening day roster.
Lewis Thorpe - The Twins are quite fond of Thorpe and for good reason. He led AAA in K/9 in 2019 and has a strong starter’s repertoire. While unlucky at the MLB level (6.18 ERA 3.47 FIP), he flashed his talent in 2020. He was demoted to minor league camp in early spring however after taking a personal leave. I think the Twins see Thorpe as a starting pitcher and may want to keep him stretched out to step into a rotation spot if injury hits, but things certainly could change.
Sean Poppen - Poppen is likely at the bottom of the list of candidates. We only saw him in a mopup role in 2019, but he was a starter for AAA all year which makes him part of the “length” pitchers Johnson is looking for. It would take a huge performance for Poppen to snag this role, but I believe the Twins think highly of him. He struggled with a 7+ ERA in 2019 while getting a bit unlucky (4.41 FIP), but there’s definitely talent in that arm.
https://twitter.com/matthew_btwins/status/1155696074545233921
Who takes the final few spots is likely to work out fine regardless, as the Twins can certainly identify talent and there seems to be no terrible options here. The likely choices are Dobnak and Smeltzer, after the former nearly won a rotation spot and the latter is a lefty the Twins could match up or use as length. While this is my assumption, it’s no sure bet with the options the Twins have to choose from. Who do you think fills that role as the “length options” on opening day?
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