Who’s Responsible for the Twins Failure?

The Angels DFA future Hall of Famer Pujols . We start Sano and Cave.

Pujols    .198/.250/.372    5 HR    12 RBI

Sano    .113/.299/.226    2 HR    4 RBI

Cave    .160/.241/.253    1 HR    11 RBI

For Comparison:

Tortuga   .313/.308/.484    3 HR    11 RBI

Gee! Should we sign Pujols?   Just keep trotting Sano and Cave out there?    Trade Tortuga for Pujols?

Are the Angels that much better they don't need someone putting up numbers like Pujols?    But the Twins need two guys worse than Pujol this season?

Plenty of blame for FO and Rocco to share if you ask me.

Curses are not real. And Eddie is exactly replacement level, hate to say it. If Eddie can get “clutch” hits so can Donaldson, Cruz, Buxton, Arraez, and Kirilloff.

Not interested in debating whether Eddie gets more clutch hits than player A, B and C. What I believe is lost is Eddie's leadership and personality. I have said since before he was gone that I believe he was the heart and soul of this team. And this team sure as heck is playing like a heartless team.

Rocco deserves a higher % of the blame. As bad as they've been, if they didn't play extra inning games with their hands around their throat and hadn't stuck with Colome several games too long, they'd have 3 more wins or so and we wouldn't be panicking.

That said, cut dead wood and play the kids. Cut bait with Sano and Cave. DL Buxton. Call up Rooker, Larnach and Broxton. Cut Shoemaker after tonight unless he earns another start and roll with Dobnak.

It’s time to stop making excuses for these guys. We’ve been sold a bill of goods on them (brilliant data analysts, pitching wonderkind, etc.) that is false. They got lucky in 2019-2020. Do your job or be held accountable.

Going 137-85 over those two years was "luck", and going 11-19 in a month plus is not? It seems downright negligent to claim that a sample size of 30 games completely and totally trumps a sample size of over 200 games. We played 52 games over .500 and nobody deserves credit for it except "luck"?!

I have to agree with Darius regarding Rocco.  In my humble opinion, Paul Molitor was doing a LOT with nothing.  But he was more old school and not "analytic" enough for our brilliant FO.  When the FO gave him CRAP players like the no spring training Lance Lynn (who is obviously NOT that player now) 

Molitor and his old school approach got us one playoff game in 4 years. He oversaw the Total System Failure squad and had a talented squad in 2018 and squandered it. Shouldn't he be held responsible for his failure of results like you want Rocco to be held accountable?

Ironically you need to play Sano Kepler Polanco in order for them to regain trade value. If they find themselves or figure something out, you will probably be winning more games. Even then the bullpen is still an issue.

We could start using the median instead of the mean. The median for the Twins is a hell of a lot lower, and heck it accurately describes what happens more often by its very definition. 

 

Median runs scored per game: 3.

Median runs allowed per game: 4.

This is a fantastic point that should be applied to almost any statistical breakdown, whether sports, the economy, healthcare outcomes, customer value, etc.

The median is almost always a closer indicator of the most meaningful findings than the mean is. 

I would add the coaching staff to the list. Whatever the coaches are doing to prepare the pitchers and hitters is not working. Maybe that's on Rocco, but I think it's much more complicated than that.

I'm not sure I'd include Berrios in the blame game. Kenta has been disappointing but his HR rate won't stay this high, and if the expectation was that he'd pitch at or near where he was last season then that's on the FO. 

I was in favor of the extensions Kepler, Polanco, and Sano received. The Kepler and Polanco deals looked phenomenal after their '19 breakouts. Neither one is a financial albatross and if development breaks right the Twins could have Kirilloff, Larnach, and Arraez to step in. Of the three I think Sano has the best chance to turn things around. If he's indeed going to be a worse version of Mark Reynolds then his contract will sting a bit but I can't fault the FO too much for these moves. They're misses, but I think their on field impact (hopefully) will be small. 

The FO has always used the dart throw/waiver wire approach with the pitching staff, and I've bitched about it for years. This season the Twins just don't have the offense, or the back end anchor(s) to hide it. It's year 5 of Falvey, and developing arms was his claim to fame when he came over. Where are they? 

I can't understand the Rocco angst. 14%? Really? Apart from purposeful sabotage, I don't know how he could negatively impact a game so much as to be responsible for such a large percentage of the losing. Yeah, I've disagreed with some substitutions, bullpen usage, and quibbled over lineups but these guys are all (allegedly) professionals and Rocco can only cook with the ingredients he's given. 

The strikeouts are a huge problem. I saw Yang Heong-jong get pulled the other day after 3.1 innings (Twins had bases loaded at the time) they showed his numbers on screen. The guy pitched 3.1 innings against the Twins....and had EIGHT strikeouts.

That means out of 10 total outs, 8 of them were by strikeout.

Awful. The whole Bomba Squad thing is nothing more than a math/probabilities project. Basically, the theory is that if you close your eyes and swing as hard as you can for 27 outs, you should beat your opponent six out of 10 times. It's terrible to watch, hard to cheer for, and at some point the moving pieces in this project (the players) are going to get sick of participating.

We're watching the death of new age strategy in real time.

Agreed. I'd start with the hitting staff. They haven't been able to help Sano, Polanco, Garver, Kepler, etc. get going. Come to think of it, the pitching coaches haven't done much with that bullpen either. Baldelli also can't seem to get these guys to perform. The record is a pretty overall indictment of the coaching staff from manager on down.  

Regarding Rocco's handling of starters: In today's MLB, if a guy goes 6 innings and throws 90 pitches - that's the end. He might get one or two more batters, but it's totally normal for any manager to pull their pitcher as they get close to that 100 pitch mark.

There are many reasons to blame Rocco - pulling his guys when they hit 100 pitches isn't one of them. That's become an MLB standard.

On this date in 2019 the Washington Nationals were 14-21 with the worst bullpen in all of baseball.  They went on to win the World Series.

You're right. A team playing this bad and this far below potential is an indictment of the coaching staff AND of the players themselves.  

On this date in 2019 the Washington Nationals were 14-21 with the worst bullpen in all of baseball.  They went on to win the World Series.

On this date in 2018 the Miami Marlins were 13-21 with the worst bullpen in baseball. They went on to lose 98 games and had the worst record in the league.

Guys, I'm not a Rocco basher but you have to give him a significant share of the blame. The manager's job is more than game time managing, where he has been poor, it also includes getting the players ready to play with effort and putting them in the best position to succeed. Rocco simply hasn't done that this year. He's been way too dependent on prior performance in making decisions and slow to react to changes in performance. His over use of Colome when it was clear he wasn't right and his continued use of Sano when he is literally almost the the worst hitter in the American League are just a couple of examples. This team looks lifeless and tight in the clutch. The manager is responsible to keep the team loose and productive. The Twins are neither of those things. That doesn't excuse the players - they've been bad.   

On this date in 2018 the Miami Marlins were 13-21 with the worst bullpen in baseball. They went on to lose 98 games and had the worst record in the league.

The rebuliding Marlins no less, in the middle of gutting their lineup...

On this date in 2019 the Washington Nationals were 14-21 with the worst bullpen in all of baseball.  They went on to win the World Series.

That is the exception. I heard somewhere, can’t remember where, that before the Nats did that...the last time a team started as bad as the Nats did and won the WS was 1914. So I wouldn’t count on it...

That is the exception. I heard somewhere, can’t remember where, that before the Nats did that...the last time a team started as bad as the Nats did and won the WS was 1914. So I wouldn’t count on it...

Not predicting a WS win just saying its not over 30 games into the season.  If this were a football game there would still be time left in the 1st quarter.  

First 25 games

Division winners after bad starts
9-16: 2015 Rangers (finished 88-74)
9-16: 2006 Twins (finished 96-66)
10-15: 2006 Padres (finished 88-74)
10-15: 2005 Yankees (finished 95-67)

Wild Card winners
8-17: 2001 Athletics (finished 102-60)
10-15: 2014 Pirates (finished 88-74)
10-15: 2009 Rockies (finished 92-70)
10-15: 2007 Rockies (finished 90-73)*

First 50 games

Division winners
22-28: 2013 Dodgers (finished 92-70)
22-28: 2012 Athletics (finished 94-68)
22-28: 2007 Cubs (finished 85-77)
22-28: 1996 Cardinals (finished 88-74)
23-27: 2018 Dodgers (finished 92-71)
23-27: 2015 Blue Jays (finished 93-69)
23-27: 2012 Tigers (finished 88-74)
23-27: 2006 Twins (finished 96-66)
23-27: 2006 Athletics (finished 93-69)

Wild Card winners
18-32: 2005 Astros (finished 89-73)
19-31: 2019 Nationals (finished 93-69)
20-30: 2009 Rockies (finished 92-70)
21-29: 2007 Yankees (finished 94-68)
21-29: 2003 Marlins (finished 91-71)
21-29: 1995 Yankees (finished 79-65)
23-27: 2014 Pirates (finished 88-74)
23-27: 2008 Brewers (finished 90-72)
23-27: 2007 Rockies (finished 90-73)

Add to the fact that our division still looks pretty weak.  The Indians look really weak on offense(26th in offense just ahead of Baltimore and Seattle). the good 2/3 of the White Sox outfield are going to miss most if not all of the season.  I think the Twins are better than they are playing and I don't think anyone is capable of running away with the division.

Even frustrated and disappointed if we are going to play any sort of "blame game"...which I'm not entirely sure is fair or accurate or productive...then I'm going to place a good 70-75% on the players at this point. Let's go ahead and use Polanco, Kepler and Sano as "targets" in this exercise since they've been brought up multiple times. Healthy, we've seen what these 3 are capable of. And they are young enough to still unlock another level of consistency, if not actual production. But let's just go ahead and say they are not as good as hoped for and not as good as what we've seen at times. We could even state the FO has over-valued their abilities. Not sure if that's true, but I'm working within an arguement of ability and performance as its being laid out here.

Well then, each of these three examples have certainly been far better previously than they've shown in 2021 thus far. Can we at least agree on that? So did they just forget how to play to any "norms" they have displayed previously? Or is it the FO and Rocco's fault they simply forgot how to play?

Sorry, but I have to put this mostly on the players at this point unless there is something nefarious and incompetent going on behind the scenes unknown to us after back to back wonderful seasons.

And I am going to nudge "bad luck" higher than 1%. Injuries and covid has kept the team on the field from being the team expected. Players are human. They are used to routines. Being hurt, or I'll, or out because of "contact" disrupts their routine. A prepondance of day games to start the season also may have contributed somewhat to a loss of normal routine for everything from infield drills to batting practice to normal life and sleep patterns. Do I offer an excuse? Not at all. But if we're going to assign "blame" for things, then we also have to acknowledge all of these factors as well.

Rocco and his staff have gotten a lot of praise for the previous two season's success. Deservedly so. And Baldelli has absolutely made a few early season moves that have confused me. But he suddenly lost the ability to manage, suddenly lost the team, suddenly became incompetent after the previous two years? Please.

As to the FO, I am a big fan but not an apologist. There were a couple areas I think they got "too cute" or however you want to phrase it in their building of the roster.

1] I was OK with the Arraez move to super utility, betting on a healthy Polanco. It hasn't worked out yet, though Polanco has at least been better as of late. I think Astudillo has been fine, though extended a bit, and I really hoped for an "extra" veteran infielder. But really, this hasn't been an issue thus far.

2] I have faith in the future of Jeffers, but I didn't fully trust him for 2021 jumping from AA and wanted an inexpensive, decent LH hitting option for depth and competition. It didn't happen. I didn't want or expect the Twins to dip down for Rotvedt as an option this soon. Interesting that Garver is now looking much better of late playing more regularly. Co-incidence? Maybe. I like Jeffers a lot, as stated, but I would have had another option brought in. I don't think this has made or broken the season to this point.

3] Maeda has been mediocre/poor, largely, after a tremendous 2020 and an equally tremendous ST this year. And he's never pitched this poorly, to my knowledge, in his career. Berrios is throwing as hard and well and nasty as he ever has, despite suddenly suffering the dreaded "one inning" disease so far. Pineda has looked great. Happ has looked great even though he wasn't my first choice. He, and Shoemaker, were signed for 1yr with the idea of Thorpe, Dobnak and prospects being ready later, plus, the flexibility to replace them in 2022 via trade or FA as well. Shoemaker hasn't looked anything close to hoped for. But was he really a stupid/lousy and inexpensive flier as the 5th SP?

4] The bullpen is a mess. And were I the FO, I absolutely would have spent a couple $M more to keep May over signing Colome, despite inconsistency vs veteran performance. It was my one and only real disappointment. Would May have made a huge difference so far? Maybe. But did anyone really expect Colome to just implode the way he has considering his career and his outstanding 2020??

Duffey really found himself. There was every reason to believe Rogers would find himself again. (Mostly, he has). I thought Robles might easily be his previous 2020 self, and he's at least looked solid thus far.

My concern was Thielbar, Stashak and others in middle relief. Even losing May, it was the front end of the pen I was most worried about. But there was potential there, and it appeared they had some depth options to turn to. So I was concerned, but not worried.

Instead, we had a late start to AAA and no idea who is ready to promote. Every single bullpen arm has been poor or inconsistent. Did I believe too much in the Twins ability to build a pen? Did they fool themselves in to believing the same? So far, this appears to be the case. But, honestly, who might they have kept...other than May...or signed who would have made a difference? 20/20 hindsight is great but BS.

I wanted to spend a few more $M here and there, but the pen has been the biggest part of the team that has struggled. But who could they have signed that would truly have made a difference?

Did the FO and Johnson just become incompetent? Or did things just not work out as expected?

Sometimes, things just don't work out as expected. But at some point, the players also have to produce. You can't have bases loaded and no outs and not bring in a single run. At some point, you can't score more than a dozen runs after the 5th inning. (I may be exaggerating, but it sure seems like that to me).

I'm still putting this mostly on a team that should be much better, but the players on the roster simply aren't playing to their abilities.

As hard as I have been on Rocco and the FO, I think we need to acknowledge that at least the FO seems to be recognizing the urgency of the situation and at least is making moves. Larnach, Gordon and Law are all up. While I still think that Thorpe should be up to replace Shoemaker, or at least Dobnak, I’m guessing that Shoemaker’s kind of slightly better than the average performance last night against a lousy team will buy him another turn in the rotation. Still, the guys that look like they have a chance to contribute this year are getting their shot.

Now it’s up to Rocco to find a place to play these guys. Larnach and Gordon need to get some fairly consistent at bats and Cave needs to go to the bench and stay there. Let’s see what these guys can do.

No, the guy in charge is always 100% responsible.

If it’s a matter of the players being bad, why didn’t the talent evaluators figure that out? The FOs job is to put together a collection of players that can win baseball games.

The managers job is to get that collection of players to perform. That’s his one and only job. Literally.

Blaming this on guys like Kepler and Polanco, who now have a large sample size of suck, is absurd. Why would you think Maeda, in his mid 30s, is all of the sudden an ace because of one good shortened season? You can’t heap praise on these guys as “geniuses” when the players perform, then blame it on the players when they don’t. When Molitor was given crap team, nobody seemed to be lining up to give him a pass like they are Baldelli.

The FO had every opportunity to get this bullpen in adequate shape. They made the decision to let two key late inning guys walk (May and Clippard) and replace them with guys off the trash heap. They terribly misjudged Colome (other FOs that wouldn’t touch him seemed to figure it out). If they would’ve addressed that properly, we’d be within spitting distance of the division leaders now despite the slumping offense. We wouldn’t be having this conversation.

It’s time to stop making excuses for these guys. We’ve been sold a bill of goods on them (brilliant data analysts, pitching wonderkind, etc.) that is false. They got lucky in 2019-2020. Do your job or be held accountable.

I agree with you 100%! 60% to Falvey, 35% to Rocco, 5% to players who are doing the best for who they are.