What’s Next to do in Free Agency for the Twins After the Winter Meetings?

1} 10yrs and $315-$330M for Correa. It's for defense, the lineup, leadership, experience, and perception with fans and the rest of the league going forward. He makes a real difference, and not just on the field.

2} Sign Vasquez for defense and handling of the staff. If you can't get it done...and you really should...then pivot quickly to Narvaez before you lose him and have to settle for someone who brings lesser overall value to the team from farther down the FA list.

3} Go sign Wil Myers to something like $12-13M per for 2 or 3yrs. He's not great, but he's good, and he's probably the best RH OF bat on the market. He'll play almost daily somewhere, really help against LH pitching, but doesn't break the bank. Plenty of room for him and Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner/Gordon. Also, this is where Kepler is moved for roster space and $8.5M more for the budget. 

4} A starting pitcher listed #4? Well, OK, how about 3B? Why so low? Because we aren't getting Rodon with Correa already on board. We at least have some good arms on board, and I see the other 3 points as important or more so.

What about Bassitt? I like the idea, even though I don't like the QO attached. (Though I can't recall right now how that affects us next draft with position and new 1st round positioning, etc.). But I'd prefer Bassitt for 3yrs instead of 4, and maybe just bump him up to around $21-22M to compensate. What about Eovaldi?

Is a trade, even if it's tough to let go of a couple guys, the way to go? No doubt there are options, and AAV would be lower than a FA. Regardless of who and how good, they need someone as good or better than what they have now. I don't know for sure who that might be. But FA is drying up for anyone that fits that category.

5} If points 1-4 are filled, it's time to add at least one quality arm to the pen. I just don't know that payroll would allow for a pair. And I'm not 100% sure we need more than one. But whether it's a Hand or Rogers from the LH side or someone like Fulmer from the RH side of things, I think the pen looks really good with one more quality veteran who you can trust in the 7th-8th innings.

On the plus side, The Twins list of upgrades is so much shorter than in recent years.  
1 Sign Correa

2. get a 2nd C

3. maybe sign Bassit or Rodon if we don’t sign Correa.

4.  Maybe sign a Reliever 

5. maybe get a RH OF

2 objectives and 3 maybes. Not really much is needed but health.

Rodon now wants 7 years and Bassitt wants 4 years. If you think Correa's contract will be dead weight after 4-5 years, these two will get there in half the time. This year has been crazy with all the long-term contracts, many of which will not look good as the player ages. Rodon for 5 years max and Bassitt for 2 or 3 with a vesting option and a mutual option would be more palatable.

49 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

3} Go sign Wil Myers to something like $12-13M per for 2 or 3yrs. He's not great, but he's good, and he's probably the best RH OF bat on the market. He'll play almost daily somewhere, really help against LH pitching, but doesn't break the bank. Plenty of room for him and Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner/Gordon. Also, this is where Kepler is moved for roster space and $8.5M more for the budget. 

I'm in on Wil Myers, but I don't think it's going to take $12M to get him. He's a quality RH bat who can still play a corner OF spot, but he's getting older, had a rough year, and substantially underperformed his contract the last few years. No one is offering him a 3 year deal, either. Even with money going up, I think he can be had for $8-9M, likely on a 1-2 year deal.

What's next to do??  Something....anything....

Let's face it...there's no way they're going to sign Rodon. Bassitt would be a much more affordable option, and probably better long term. He's not an "ace", but he's very solid and durable. They also have to get a catcher in here. Whether it's Vasquez or Narvaez...get one of them. I don't know what's going to happen with CC, but it would be great to get him to stay here. We also all know the pen needs some help. The FO needs to get going on this stuff before all the desirable players are scooped up by other teams. Time to get moving. 

From the rumors we are willing to offer a contract to Correa that is comparable.  The question is will he want to take it?  Will he just go to highest bidder, and if so who will that be?  Rumors are already 2 players took smaller contracts but still had huge contracts either way.  I am not surprised Correa is waiting out, that is normal Boras advice.  Bogarts did not hold out because he got offer no other team would have been willing to match, so jump on it.  However, both Correa and Rodon are in bidding wars.  They will continue to bounce offers between those teams to get his max amount.  Sometimes this may backfire, but when at least 3 teams are bidding, if not more, and only 2 SS out there, easy to keep asking for me.

There can always be a team no one expects to swoop in, like we did last year to sign CC to begin with.  The teams just need to decide how long will they wait, and how high will they go.  Some might pivot and bow out of bidding, which is a risk CC faces.  However, I think he can keep holding out for awhile to get best deal for himself.  

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

It's been interesting to watch the 2 "big money" team strategies do battle. You have the Mets and Dodgers who seem to be trying to do super high AAV deals for few years then you have the Padres and Phillies going with massive length (assumedly to lower luxury tax hits year to year) with lower AAVs. Will be interesting to see how those long deals effect things as Harper, Turner, Tatis, Bogaerts, etc. age and stop being productive. The Bogaerts deal blows my mind.

I agree with your maxes for Rodon and Badditt. I want nothing to do with Rodon's arm for 7 years.

With a 7 year deal on Rodon a big market team is almost certainly assuming that they'll miss one of those seasons completely and call it the cost of doing business (and hope maybe they can insure him?). Any pitcher for 7 years is a big risk. A history like Rodon's and it's a massive risk. but this is the advantage of being able to have a $250M payroll: you can buy yourself out of trouble.

The Bogaerts deal stunned me too: 11 years is pretty nuts for a guy who has already turned 30 and where PED testing is actually a thing. This isn't Bryce Harper, where the last year of his deal is his age-38 season, Bogaerts is going until he's 41. He's going to have to really be worth it in those first 5 years, because the last 3-4 could be very ugly.

Bassitt for 4 years is fine.  He hasn't pitched too many innings so his arm can last.  37 isn't too old either.  between him and Rodon I would sign Bassitt.  That is a way better term.  

29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

My guess is they're planning on inflation making his 2030 and beyond salaries not look that huge and they're stretching out his luxury tax threshold hit over extra years to make him more affordable during the years they expect him to be good. It's an interesting gamble. If they're wrong on their projections for where prices are going over the next decade it could look bad, but they were able to stretch it over so many years that his AAV is quite low (relatively speaking) and allows them extra flexibility. If prices keep rising his 25.5 per year may not look too bad as he gets old. They may even be crossing their fingers he retires at some point during the deal to free his roster spot as if they're right about prices his roster spot is going to be more of a concern than the 25 mil. I'm guessing they're expecting Machado to leave after 2023 as well. It's going to be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Edited to add: This is also going to be an interesting experiment for future CBAs. Does the league eventually push for contract length limits to avoid teams manipulating things in this way? I believe that's what the NHL did when teams were signing guys to 13 year deals and such. Same with the NBA. And the NFL with their rookie deals. Eventually the league saves the teams from themselves and limits contracts to avoid the anchors some teams sign. MLB obviously different with no cap and such. But adds an extra variable to the negotiations.

at the current inflation rates the contracts values will half every 5-7 years so the values will definitely drop.

To answer the topic question. Actually, sign a free agent we have heard of seems like a good place to start.

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

Bassitt for 4 years is fine.  He hasn't pitched too many innings so his arm can last.  37 isn't too old either.  between him and Rodon I would sign Bassitt.  That is a way better term.  

This is right on the money (no pun intended).  I also think it might help with the Correa negotiations.  Signing Bassitt would show Correa that the Twins are serious about building a quality team.  Also sign either Vasquez or Narvaez quickly before they are gone.  Push the damn budget to $170M (inflation is real - even us senior citizens get a raise next month).

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

1} 10yrs and $315-$330M for Correa. It's for defense, the lineup, leadership, experience, and perception with fans and the rest of the league going forward. ✅

2} Sign Vasquez for defense and handling of the staff. If you can't get it done...and you really should...then pivot quickly to Narvaez ✅

3} Go sign Wil Myers to something like $12-13M per for 2 or 3yrs. ?‍♂️

4} A starting pitcher listed #4? ?

What about Bassitt? ✅

What about Eovaldi??

5} If points 1-4 are filled, it's time to add at least one quality arm to the pen. ????‍♂️

NOTE: expand the quote to see emojis 
 

I like most of what @DocBauer says here. 
 

not ?% sold on the RH OF or the veteran guy in the pen. 

we can’t have everything. I think we have quality arms that can be leverage in the BP. get Lopez back on track and see what you can do with Pagan plus our young arms. It would not only get them a taste of the Bigs but not force them to swim away from the sharks right away. 
 

outlier. Go after Senga

I was all in on adding a starter but this is nuts. Rodon is a great fit for the twins but 7 years is nuts. They should now get two quality relievers and add the innings thru the pen. Oh yea more pitching changes. I also agree with doc on adding a right handed hitting outfielder. 

2 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

NOTE: expand the quote to see emojis 
 

I like most of what @DocBauer says here. 
 

not ?% sold on the RH OF or the veteran guy in the pen. 

we can’t have everything. I think we have quality arms that can be leverage in the BP. get Lopez back on track and see what you can do with Pagan plus our young arms. It would not only get them a taste of the Bigs but not force them to swim away from the sharks right away. 
 

outlier. Go after Senga

Love the emojis! That was pretty cool!

But for giggles, thought I'd address the two points you aren't 100% sold on.

1] Not going to rehash Kepler's worth in keeping or move since it's been it's been beaten to death. But whether he's in RF or moved in favor of one of the young bats, I just think they have to aim higher than Garlick. Correa...still hoping/dreaming...Miranda, Buxton and even Farmer help the lineup against LHP. For that matter, Jeffers rakes against LHP. But for whatever reason, LHP has been a real bane for the Twins. "Better than Garlick" deepens the lineup and even offers a really good PH option with a mid-game pitching change. They just need more balance in the OF.

2] I like the base of our bullpen and it's potential an awful lot, especially if Winder, Henriquez, Sands, or pitcher X...maybe from rotation depth...can provide a legitimate 2-3 inning bridge when needed. Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Moran, and a healthy Alcala could/should be pretty damn good with a quality long man. And for the record, For the record, I still want Pagan moved if possible instead of trying him as a middle man). And there are a few arms at St Paul that might very well help at some point. But just like the rotation, I want to have the luxury of "too many" arms than not enough. How often does a team come out of ST with all their arms 100% healthy and good and ready to go? I want to hedge my bets, if I'm the Twins. I'm not even concerned about a RH or LH arm as there are good reasons for both. But if I'm trying to really compete for the Central and more, I'm going to EXPECT someone hurt, or not ready, or off to a bad start, and I really want that one additional arm to make sure my pen is as deep and good as it can be.

Thanks for the response. Again, emojis were cool!

10 minutes ago, Linus said:

I was all in on adding a starter but this is nuts. Rodon is a great fit for the twins but 7 years is nuts. They should now get two quality relievers and add the innings thru the pen. Oh yea more pitching changes. I also agree with doc on adding a right handed hitting outfielder. 

I also think 7yrs is nuts. 6yrs might be too. And I really, really like Rodon. So do the Twins as they tried to land him twice last season. And I think he's a really good fit for the Twins as well. And I'm NOT in the group that thinks Rodon is a great injury risk. I mean, really, how many SP, if any, that you sign or trade for aren't at some sort of injury risk? I think Rodon is GOOD, even VERY GOOD, but $30M per for 6 or 7yrs gives me pause. I just don't know that history makes him a $30M per arm.

That being said, if Correa is off the table, I'm not saying NO to Rodon. I'd be excited if he were added. And I know some of the signings this year are just NUTS, but when I look at signings like Darvish, Wheeler, Ray, and Gausman as similar arms the past few years, I just can't believe the kind of numbers being speculated right now. And history/philosophy says they won't go beyond 5yrs.

I do think the Twins system is NOT depleted or "down" to any great deal. They are top and bottom heavy with talent, with a hole in the AA range. They have a really good chance to add to the system in the 2023 draft. But a trade for a SP with 2-3yrs of control MIGHT be the better route if they don't add a Bassitt or Eovoldi on a 3-4yr deal that isn't crazy. And I don't like moving Arraez or Polanco in part of a trade with a couple of top prospects, but it might be a better route than FA at this point.

I don't have an easy answer that doesn't hurt to add a SP, and I'd love to add someone for quality depth and options. But I'm almost convinced the best lineup and depth and the best bullpen, with depth, and running with what they have in the rotation right now, with a few young arms ready/nearly ready, isn't the best option.

Helicoptor money. For most of us it's a fragile economy with severe headwinds and some nasty looking storm clouds ahead, but wow, free agents are sure raking in the cash this off season.

The question was, "What’s Next to do in Free Agency for the Twins After the Winter Meetings?"

Pretty much the same thing as before the meetings started. We've gotten nowhere and probably are further behind as options are taken off the board.

The idea of a Chris Bassit signing seems like a good one until you remember he had TJ about 2016. 

Eovaldi, injury prone again

Unfortunately, Archer, Shoemaker, Happ have proved there are bad 1 year contracts, 

First we had Covid-19, now we have Free Agent Frenzy-22.  Both will pass, but Covid is usually over in a week!  The years and ages just don't match up. My hope is in the minors.

This Correa strategy is brutal. All fallbacks are gone (unless you love Kyle Farmer). Vazquez realized he can wait out Correa and if he goes elsewhere, up his salary request to a desperate team, and it's working. Swanson is doing the same thing, so everything is on hold. 

If we don't get Correa and this all falls apart, the FO should be fired for incompetence. 

I’m generally with Mike Link in that I think it is most important to build the best overall team. Coming into the off-season I wanted upgrades at SS catcher a right hand hitting outfielder a starter and stud reliever. I would move on all areas and if there isn’t enough money for CC then so be it. I am not interested in Swanson as a fallback. I like the glove but the bat isn’t good enough for a mega deal. Lewis was the #1 over all pick. He’s worth a shot. 

Let Correa walk. 

Sign Rodon. His past couple of years are elite and I believe is worth the risk.

Sign Navares

Sign some of the relievers

-Chafin

-Fulmer

- Duffy

- Boxberger

Let Farmer play SS until Lewis returns or Lee shows himself ready for the show. I think it will be sooner than most think. 

Move ahead with Vasquez at C, Go get Bassett and then call Correa back and tell him we're serious. I think he wants to see what sort of team he'll be on for a decade before signing. If there's time they can trade for someone to hit from the right side and mess around on calls regarding Kepler and Pagan.