What's Next for the Twins After Signing Josh Donaldson?

Is the entire Marlins staff better than Odorizzi? If so they should be a good team.

The Twins have one of the best lineups ever. It really can’t be overstated how good that group will be

 

Can we slow the roll a little here. So many variables involved going forward. This kind of hyperbole makes me doubt the credibility of TD

 

The Twins have one of the best lineups ever. It really can’t be overstated how good that group will beCan we slow the roll a little here. So many variables involved going forward. This kind of hyperbole makes me doubt the credibility of TD

A majority of the lineup returns after hitting THE MOST HOME RUNS..EVER. oh...and they added one of THE best third basemen to that prolific lineup...it is in now way hyperbole.On the pitching front, they were not as bad as some folks want to believe they were. Homer Bailey may have found something, Hill is somehow making things work at an advanced age, and we have a couple of Lookers in the minors. I know you Minnesotans are perpetually pessimistic about your sports teams (and for good reason) but, it's ok to let yourself feel some optomisim for this team.

For now I expect a minor league signing of a vetran bounceback starter. Drew Smyly type. I do not expect a major trade right now.  But I did not expect the Twins to sign Donaldson either.

What is the story on the tendon in Cruz's wrist? The ruptured extensor carpi ulnaris (ECU) tendon. I guess it is still not a problem, eh? I haven't heard anything. 

This team should have enough to be leading the division come July. I would not add another pitcher in the offseason and instead wait to see what they need and what is available. There may be guys on teams that currently think they are going to content this year that become available. This approach also let’s those other teams carry the injury risk through the first half of the season. How badly would it suck to give up our top prospects now only to have a Gray, Boyd or whomever blow out their elbow in April when we could have waited until closer to the deadline?

I still cannot call the off-season a success when your major need is starting pitching and your biggest acquisition is a 3rd baseman. If you spend $7M on Bailey, $3M on Hill and $23M on Donaldson wouldn't it have been better to spend the collective amount of those 3 of $33M on an Ace? Pitching wins Championships..... Viola and Morris are the biggest examples. All we can do now is hope for a trade.

The only aces available were Cole and Strassburg. Those didn't happen. LAD and Buehler - not happening ... and so on. We all wanted pitching. Time to move on and look for a trade in the summer when one or more teams are ready to change directions or see a trade as beneficial. 

The Twins look really good on paper right now and their ability to improve also looks good.

A little patience is warranted. I don't expect the Twins to win 102 games again, but i believe they are a better team and they will win the division. It is a long season and it all starts with optimism.

I am for letting this mix play out and seeing what Graterol and the other rookie arms can bring to the table.  During the Yankee runs in the sixties they always had good players blocking good prospects.  When a good player went down a good prospect took their place.  Then they could choose and trade.  

 

I expect at least one of Lewis, Larnach, Kiriloff to be traded, but not sure which should go and if it is now, mid season or next off season.

 

Is the entire Marlins staff better than Odorizzi? If so they should be a good team.

 I really doubt that! Although thee Marlins might have 1 or 2 that would be nice & hopefully they`re open to trade. The Pirates have Archer & Stratten which would be great project for Wes Johnson. Both clubs have last year Twins coaches which   could facilitate the deals. Ray & Gray could be available towards the end of the deadline

Trade Rosario & prospects for a starting pitcher?

 

A majority of the lineup returns after hitting THE MOST HOME RUNS..EVER. oh...and they added one of THE best third basemen to that prolific lineup...it is in now way hyperbole. On the pitching front, they were not as bad as some folks want to believe they were. Homer Bailey may have found something, Hill is somehow making things work at an advanced age, and we have a couple of Lookers in the minors. I know you Minnesotans are perpetually pessimistic about your sports teams (and for good reason) but, it's ok to let yourself feel some optomisim for this team.

Hyperbole might be a little strong, but unbridled optimism may fit.  No doubt 2019 was an impressive year, especially for solo home runs.  How much of that was aided by the juiced ball is unclear, but it certainly had some impact.  My bigger concern is the likelihood of not reaching optimistic projections for a number of the key components, for the following reasons:

 

Age - Cruz turning 40, Donaldson starting a 4 or 5 yr contract at an age where position players normally begin dropping off.

Likelihood of Injury - Cruz, Sano, Buxton

Sophomore Jinx/Outlier Season - Arreaz, Garver

 

That being said, there are some reasons for being optimistic for improvement. 

 

A healthy season from Sano and Buxton could be a sight to behold.

30+ home-runs and 100+ RBI's was a disappointing year for Rosario. What does a good year look like?

Polanco and Kepler seem to be establishing themselves as legitimate stars.

There are young players who, with an opportunity (injury) could force their way in.

 

My optimistic take:  The "Bomba Squad" vanishes, with home-runs dropping off by 20%; still leaving them with a healthy 240 to 250 home-runs.  Situational hitting improves as does plate discipline; partly influenced by Donaldson.  Runs scored increase, as does run distribution; i.e. fewer blowouts with 5 or 6 home-runs, but more games where a big hit at the right time makes the difference.

 

So if you a thinking adding Donaldson means a new home-run record, eclipsing the 307 from last year, prepare to be disappointed.  If you are looking for an exciting team that has a better chance of competing in the fall, I hope you will be satisfied.

Gray and Ray are intriguing but we don't really know that either are available at this time.  Those teams would likely like to see if their team gels and can compete until the end of the season so it would take a major, major overpay to get those guys.  I doubt either one is worth it. Same goes for Boyd and that is an in division trade and I just don't trust what pitcher Boyd is at this time seems like a terrible risk to take to me. 

 

Personally I think the young guys we have are as good as the entire Marlins pitching staff and Musgrove.  I know it is a small sample size but Smeltzer's stats look eerily similar to Alcantara's and Musgroves.  Would those guys really be upgrades?  Again small sample size but Dobnaks's 1.59 Era and 1.13 WHIP beats every pitcher named so far.  Granted he doesn't have the K9 of Gray or Ray but it sure looks like his stuff might play as well as any of the other guys mentioned.

 

Honestly the only guy on this list I would consider is Gray.  He might move the needle for this staff but here's the thing between Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Graterol and Duran we might have the impact pitching we need right in our own system.  Again I know small sample size but it is all I have,  Smeltzer pitched as well as anyone on the Marlins staff and his stats look better than most of the guys on this list.  I think Thorpe will improve he has the stuff he just needs some time to settle in IMO.   Dobnak is a bit of wild card as I just don't understand how he gets the results he does but he could be one of those guys that could be a pseudo ace in the making.  Graterol likely can't pitch in the rotation the whole year but could give us the jump start we need until all the vets are up and running.  Same could be true for Duran if Graterol isn't up to the task.  The other wild card is Poppen who had good enough stuff to get added to the 40 man so if he catches fire then there is another arm to see if he has that IT factor.

 

Just like we thought we needed arms in the pen last year the FO believed in the guys they had and although it was a bumpy ride it worked out.  This year I think they ride with the young starting pitchers and see what they have. If it all breaks down and they all stink or get hurt then sure trade for what you need.  Until then though I would ride with what we have unless you can grab a true difference maker that would be better than what you already potentially have.

Leading the division in July is not automatic. Compare the April-May 2019 team to the April-May 2020 team. The 2020 starting staff will (likely) be _worse_. The lineup will add Donaldson and Arraez but subtract Schoop and Cron, who were pretty good for that time period. There's a chance the lineup could be better, or they could be worse. Donaldson has plenty of recent history of injury. Arraez could have a sophomore slump. Add in baseball stuff (i.e.,randomness) and the improved White Sox and, yeah, it would be hubris / jinx territory to type in a blog comment that we're assured of first place by July. You don't want to be responsible for this team's epic collapse, DO YOU?

The Indians and America's team will put up a brave front for the first month or so, but it will be over by the deadline. My biggest concern, is being able to afford the expensive beer and hot dogs at the ballpark. The ramone2 household took a big hit, when they started searching my wife's purse when we entered.

Season-opening pitching staffs

 

2019 -> 2020

Berrios -> Berrios

Odorizzi -> Odorizzi

Gibson -> Bailey, Homer

Perez -> TBD (Rich Hill's arm hopefully good for more than 58.2 innings this year?)

Pineda -> TBD (Pineda back in June?)

 

Looks shakey to me. I'm not super optimistic about the existing options for TBD. Pitchers get off to a good start all the time before the league figures them out.

 

How badly would it suck to give up our top prospects now only to have a Gray, Boyd or whomever blow out their elbow in April when we could have waited until closer to the deadline?

How badly would it suck to have Donaldson blow out his knee in April? You can worry about future injuries for virtually every player in every sport.

I just want to add that I think the Sano extension is going to go down as an extremely underrated move. You've got MVP potential in that bat. That is an absolute steal at 3/30

It's a lot of pressure on the rookies, but eventually a Dobnak or Graterol is going to have to step up and solidify their spot in a rotation. It's how all future superstars start. Twins will probably see one-two bullpen games a week until Pineda joins, and then one-two every other week until Hill is healthy.

I think Smeltzer and Dobniak can be starters if given the chance. At least they are not 40. And at least we didnt get nailed for cheating.....Is new guy here in town? If not invite him up for the weekend!

 

The Indians and America's team will put up a brave front for the first month or so, but it will be over by the deadline. My biggest concern, is being able to afford the expensive beer and hot dogs at the ballpark. The ramone2 household took a big hit, when they started searching my wife's purse when we entered.

Are you Rich Hill?

Just because I'm seeing this a lot in the threads ....

 

Arraez having a sophmore slump at the plate seems very unlikely to me.  I just haven't seen many come up with that kind of bat and zone control.  He really can't be shifted effectively, and he's incredibly patient on top of it all.

 

His defense leaves me wondering if he shouldn't be an unorthodox DH, but I will be blindsided if he suddenly can't hit for any measurable amount of time.

 

I think a couple AAA minor league deals for veterans will come......and nothing else.

 

I know a lot of people think they can just trade for pitchers at the deadline, but they passed on that opportunity last deadline. And, not many great starters are actually dealt every deadline. 2-4 at most. I'm not sure it is a slam dunk they'll do so if they need to.

 

Right now they are set up for 90-94 wins, I'd think. 95 is the tough spot for the O/U for me. If Buxton is healthy and the young pitchers don't implode, I like the over. If Berrios or Odo gets hurt, or if the young guys aren't good, I like the under.......

 

The starting pitching is high variance right now....

 

My guess is 92-95 wins takes the division. That's good. It should be an exciting season.