What You Need To Know About Nelson Cruz

Cruz’s ability to put the sweetest spot of the bat on the ripest part of the ball over the last several seasons has been near baby-making quality. According to StatCast, over the last four seasons he has ranked 8th-4th-8th-and-11th in Barrels per Plate Appearance. What’s more, when you limit the pool to players who have had 400 or more batted ball events during the season, Cruz’s rankings shift to 4th-3rd-3rd-and-4th.

It is surprising to see teams forgo the opportunity to sign a player to a one-year deal (plus options) who has demonstrated this level of power consistency but somehow the Twins have coaxed Cruz into doing so. With the lumber he has been amazingly consistent, even at his advanced baseball age. Consider this: Over the last four years, the only person to barrel more pitches than Cruz’s 247 is Boston’s JD Martinez with 251.

The barrel statistic is important because a vast majority of those batted ball types become extra base hits. And the MLBAM’s smart guys have conducted research that shows that barrels per plate appearances is a skill that profiles similar to a walk rate or strikeout rate year-over-year. In short, unless injuries or age foil, expect more of the same laser show from Cruz in Minnesota.

That being said, 2018 was not Cruz’s best season, statistically speaking. There is no questioning his power -- 37 dingers is impressive -- yet there seems to be some signs of erosion. For instance, he posted his lowest batting average since 2007. Part of the reason may be facing the shift more. In 2018 defenses shifted him in 19.3% of his plate appearances -- a huge leap from 2017 when he saw shifts in 7.3% of the time. Whether it was the presence of the additional fielder on the left side of second base or pure coincidence, Cruz went 22-for-103 (.214) when confronted by the shift in 2018. Those kinds of results can inspire copycats.

Another interesting statistic is that Cruz’s performance against the hard stuff (fastballs, sinkers and cutters) declined in 2018.

On the surface, this drop can be worrisome. After all, reaction time vanishing with age is a real concern. It is perhaps one reason why Cruz’s market was reduced to just two teams (with the Rays reportedly never giving him a formal offer). When you look deeper however Cruz’s deteriorated performance against the fastball family appears to be less of a function of age and more of a level of luck.

In 2018 Cruz hit more of his balls in the air in the left-center to right-center gaps rather than straight down the left field line. He isn’t a prototypical dead-red extreme pull hitter in the mold of say Brian Dozier or Josh Willingham who used Target Field’s inviting left field to their natural advantage. He pulled the ball in the air just 30% of the time this past season, below the league average. With balls hit in the middle of the park, it means some hard hit ones stayed in play (both Safeco and Target Field are two of the most difficult venues for right-handed hitters to hit home runs in the right-center gap). Combine that with more efficient defensive positioning and those hard hit balls became outs. Nevertheless, if you synthesize Cruz’s batted ball profile through the Statcast machine, it shows that Cruz’s actual .264 average and .542 slugging versus hard stuff could have been closer to a .302 average and a .622 slugging percentage. That’s potential upside.

As we have seen, the baseball landscape has been changing, enriched with increased velocity and a newfound dedication to high spin fastballs up in the zone. Teams have changed their approach to hitters who normally would mash stuff at the bottom of the strike zone. One such low-ball masher was Nelson Cruz. From 2015 through 2017 Cruz hit 50 home runs on fastballs in the lower half of the zone while posting a monstrous .330/.406/.603 line -- 18th highest slugging percentage among qualified hitters in that time.

(Miguel Sano, he wrote foreshadowingly, was 9th on that list.)

In that period, the game began to shift. In 2015 the Boston Red Sox pitching staff threw their fastballs 30% of the time at the top of the zone. Baseball was paced by the Nationals’ pitching staff at 35%. In that time the FLY BALL REVOLUTION happened. Blood was shed. Balls were murdered. Families were fractured. Hitters had cultivated swings that acted like a ferris wheel, lifting balls from the bottom of the zone and launching them into orbit with total disregard for human life. Dissatisfied with being a constant punching bag, pitching analysts started to see the value in aiming higher. In time, teams started to replace fastballs with breaking balls and hitting the top of the zone with heaters. This past season, the Boston Red Sox led baseball in upper zone presence with a 45% rate. They would ride this strategy to the World Series.

Cruz’s production inverted as opponents starting elevating their fastballs. After punishing the low hard stuff the previous three seasons, he posted a 238/353/390 line on fastballs down in the zone in 2018. Meanwhile he attacked fastballs up. He swung more frequently at heaters at the top of the zone and he made more and better contact. From 2015 to 2017 he connected with just 59% of fastballs in the upper third. In 2018 that number was 70%. Previously he struck out on 31% of fastballs up although he pared that down to 19% in 2018. In that three year window overall he managed to hit .210/.390/.425 with 14 home runs on fastballs up. This past year he hit .261/.455/.693 with 12 home runs.

Cruz used to hit long fly balls on pitches down in the zone but that has morphed into a bit of a dead zone for him now as pitches left up in the zone are the ones he has been sending into the stratosphere.

It may be a coincidence but given Cruz's track record for preparation, it would make sense that he is parrying along with the attack. An old dog learning a new tricks. A late stage reinvention. If nothing else, Cruz is one weapon in the lineup that won’t be stymied by the growing trend of high fastballs. Beyond that, with his reputation for mentoring others, it would seem that Cruz might be the perfect acquisition to guide other teammates into making the same adjustment.

Which brings us back to the Twins.

The Minnesota Twins’ offense has been near the bottom of the league when facing high heat. In 2018, they held a team OPS of .673 against fastballs -- 23rd in the MLB. At the top of the list? Boston (828 OPS) and their advanced analytical approach. The Houston Astros had the second highest OPS against fastballs up (.815 OPS) which is not surprising when you consider the level of preparation their team does before the games. Elite teams address weaknesses.

There is no denying that Miguel Sano was a mess last year, requiring a trip all the way down to Fort Myers to attempt to reboot. Teams know there are two surefire ways to get Sano out. The first is the slider over the left-handed batters box that he will chase until his last breath. The other is the elevated fastball. Admittedly, Sano was flummoxed by all fastballs regardless of their location in 2018 but, historically, he hasn’t figured out how to deal with the high heat.

Sano’s swing is the standard ferris wheel -- down and back up -- which is very potent but can leave hitters susceptible to pitches up. To his credit, he tried to combat the issue by laying off more. Whereas Cruz swung at nearly half of those fastballs, Sano cut down to 32%. If you can’t beat ‘em, layoff ‘em is a viable short-term solution. Still, with the game trending toward more fastballs up, there is opportunity there.

And Sano isn’t alone in the lineup. While Cruz led baseball with the highest exit velocity on fastballs up at 97.5, Jorge Polanco had the lowest at 76.6. Not far from him at the bottom was Cruz’s former teammate Jonathan Schoop at 79.4. Max Kepler has hit just .149 vs fastballs up. If Cruz has indeed unlocked a secret to success in the evolving game, the entire Twins lineup could stand to benefit from his knowledge.

This is one element of the game that Cruz’s proficiency at could prove useful to the Twins. Additionally, his reputation as someone who puts in work away from the field could be influential to the younger players. When the Houston Astros added Carlos Beltran in 2017, his ability to help the younger roster understand the game better was lauded as one of the reasons the organization was able to win the World Series. Veteran leadership can be a very important intangible.

All said, a one-year deal with options that favors the Twins is a seemingly no-lose situation.