What Would the Ideal Offseason Have Looked Like for the Minnesota Twins?

The one caveat I would throw in is we do not know how either Ray or Rondon would have done here.  In particular with Rondon he was with Sox for years and they clearly figured something out with him, we may not have and he would have been as bad with us as he had been for years with the Sox.  Ray K numbers have been the same, but his walks have never been this low in the past.  For the price I would have went after Ray first over Happ for sure, but he may not have had the same reduction in walks this year with Twins either.  

In terms of Wong, he was never a thought because of the playing second and we had a second baseman if we were keeping Polonco so only reason to bring in middle infielder was to upgrade defense at SS. 

Definitely would have been hard to pick these successes, other than Kolten Wong. I wanted him badly for that price. But also thought Simmons would fit really well (bye bye, my credibility in this post). Ray's bouceback wasn't a given due to all his free passes, but I think it was easy to predict he'd be better than Happless. Shoemaker never should have gotten a major league deal. That play on upside was just a terrible idea and everyone seemed to know it. Relievers are so damn tricky, I can't even lie that I would have done better.

I also recall that the Jays grabbed Ray very early in FA, so it would have been hard for us to have a chance anyways.

22 minutes ago, SotaSports said:

I also recall that the Jays grabbed Ray very early in FA, so it would have been hard for us to have a chance anyways.

Probably true in the case of Ray, but the strategy of late FA signings did backfire on the Twins here, and remains questionable for fielding a playoff team

I was always hoping for a Robbie Ray signing.  I also recall many people pleading for a starting pitcher named Trevor Bauer and a closer named Brad Hand.  That would have been a great use of $45M.  Hindsight is always easy.

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That can push them out of some negotiations and leave them to only getting guys later when the player's market has come back down.

I'll go along with your clarification, but this part brings up another concern: doesn't this strategy also set them up to sign players about whom they disagree with the rest of the league? Which works if they find a diamond in the rough, but fails if they fail to account for the shortcomings that others have seen.

In any case, the player evaluation remains the thing they have to get right. Nothing new or surprising there.

Agree with you that hind sight is 20/20 and that our pitching free agent signings were terrible from the start. Although we had hope that Wes Johnson could work his magic on the relief pitchers like in the past but that didn't happen.

  Even so I don't put a lot of stock in free agency except players like Nelson Cruz. That being said I believe the best route is trading our redundant players and any over rated players to obtain great valued players that fit our needs. I suggested going after under valued pitchers from PIT, Musgrove, Tailon and closer Rodriguez. If we had traded for them instead of the free agents that we signed , we would have been in much better situation, record, financial and 40 man roster (where we lost Akil Baddo and in danger of losing more)

 Simmons to me was a success. He kept Polanco at 2B, so he could recover and be the great player that he is. Simmons covers a lot of ground, his ankles were healthy and his hitting was better than I expected. Yes, he looked terrible after his bout with covid but I blame that on too much layoff and the home run he hit. Many players have problems after they hit home runs because it goes to their heads. Coaches need to help keep hitters on track.

 I also think our problems are deeper than players.

I find this thought exercise too painful to think about.

Quite a "whack a mole" exercise. I think if the pitching moves had been better, the defense of Simmons would have been more recognized. I think his signing was done to attract FA pitchers here with our improved D. However, he couldn't field moon shots to the seats. I do think he should have been vetted about his thoughts on vaccination prior to signing. Covid definitely affected his play.

It will be interesting to see how the health of Royce Lewis is next spring, as that could affect whether the Twins jump into the market to sign one of the SS biggies. And I hope they can get their pitching targets right this time if they look at FAs again. 

I would like to create a time machine after reading articles like this. Let me go do a little tinkering in the garage, see what I can come up with. If you suddenly find yourself in a reality where the Twins and White Sox are neck-and-neck, you'll know I got it working.

Nelson Cruz was a good signing agreed. Genius in fact.

Justin Turner, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana were all possible options

These dudes all signed multi year deals. Santana has already been a flop, and Justin Turner and Michael Brantley run injury risks. Twins don't need more of that and to lure them alway from the Dodgers and Astros would have been a bidding war between two teams with a lot more money.

Simmons was also a great signing. Yes I said it.

Simmons was signed for his defense. His defensive WAR puts him as one of the best defensive SS's of all-time. If Simmons plays an elite SS, it allows the Twins to save money on pitching. The plan was clearly, Buxton in CF and Simmons at SS saving enough runs that you could throw mediocre pitchers out there and still get some results.

Simmons defense has been good, but not legendary unfortunately. In hindsight this looks bad, however the Twins aren't stuck with him for 2-4 more years. 

Other options - Kolton Wong would have been cool, however moving Polonco to 2B has given Jorge his first season with a positive DRS (defensive runs saved). The true other option would have been Didi Gregorious. He signed a 2 year deal which is turning out to look bad for the Phillies because they are stuck with him another year. Based on the Twins options, Simmons was the best option after losing out on Semien. 

J.A. Happ is another good signing. Yes I hate to say it but it's true.

J.A. Happ gave up 10 HRS in 2020 and if he was pitching in target field, only 6 of them would have gone out. He had an excellent track record previously and for an organization that badly needed starting rotation help, it's an easy gamble.

Other options - Several, but not Robbie Ray. Robbie Ray had a disgusting 2020. 6.62 ERA with a 5.84 xFIP? You can't even say he was unlucky with those numbers, just bad. J.A. Happ was a much safer play and a better call. It didn't work out, however it's great to hear about Robbie's success. The dude certainly figured it out. Lets not forget, we received a couple of players for Happ that might help out the Twins next season so it's an easy win.

RP Alex Colome very bad

Alex Colome had a pretty cool 2.92 ERA in 2020 but since his xFIP was 4.53, any amateur could see that his success was lucky. The Twins didn't care and they signed him anyways and now his ERA matches his xFIP with a 4.26 ERA to an xFIP of 4.53. When this happened, I figured the Twins saw something to tweak with him, however he's remained steady on his fastball/cutter combo from previous years with not enough success. 

RP Hansel Robles ok.

Robles also had a terrible 2020. It was easy to see why the Twins wanted to take a chance on him. He has electric stuff. What I'm surprised about is that they didn't try to "tweak" him in anyway. He's improved his GB% pretty significantly, however he's throwing all of his pitches pretty much the same from previous years.

Other Options - For the price they signed Colome, it would have been good to see a few more chances being taken. I do like the Sergio Romo option, Just keep in mind this is hard to do. Brad Hand is pretty much out of the league. Keona Kela is out indefinitely, Matt Wisler would have been an amazing signing for the results he keeps getting. Anthony Bass was another one that I heard Twins groan about that we missed signing but that turned out good. Jake McGee would have been nice since he actually had a good track record. 

All in all, I'm disappointed in the Twins RP signings the most. However, it's a little bit of a crap shoot, however we could have taken chances on 3 different RP for the price we signed Colome to and that would have been a better use of the salary. Luckily, we aren't stuck with either of those guys after the season so at least that's the positive.

Hindsight:  20/20

Now tell us what the perfect off-season for the upcoming would be.....

Hindsight is definitely 20/20, but as people have mentioned things like maybe Ray or Rodon don't do as well with the twins as they have done with their respective teams, so looking at things may have changed for the better or worse what if the Twins had just kept what they had in house??  Odorizzi and Hill who have both been decent this year, way way better than Shoemaker and Happ, but nowhere near Rodon etc....  But had they also just kept May and Romo over Colome and Robles?  I mean when teams get on a roll you know guys will play better than what their peripherals say they should and vice versa.  For instance Happ looked like his career was done and now in St Louis he looks ok again?  But what if the clubhouse mostly stayed the same??  Odorizzi and Hill; Trevor May and Romo?  Maybe even clippard also?  How far off would that have put the payroll?  I know for a fact that those guys play better than what the twins replaced them with.  But how much?

Part of it is being around mostly same people for years while also enjoying where you are at.

I firmly believe that is part of what make Twins player play well or mediocre.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. This season has been a disaster and you can't fully blame it on what we should have/ could have (maybe) done. There are players on the team now (Sano, Kepler, Rogers, Maeda, etc., etc.) who did not do the job we thought they would.

We should not look back but should look forward. What should we do for next year is the real question. We don't want this season to repeat.

Even in hindsight, I'll take Simmons over Wong...unless you think Wong would make a decent SS. Wong is a vastly superior 2B, so Wong being a league average SS might be possible. He would definitely be better than Polanco.

That said, I'd rather have the 2021 version of Simmons on this team than the 2021 version of Wong. 

In hindsight, Semien is the only FA IF that would have been a superior option for the Twins than Simmons. I call that a front office win, even if it seems like a wash overall. 

BTW, Simmons is the front runner for the AL SS GG. That's kind of rad. While it's not ideal, I'd be happy with the Twins signing Simmons to another one year contract. It could be worse. They could have signed Kolten Wong.