What if This is the Max for Kepler?

“I think you’ve got to build on the things the guy has done,” Rowson said. “Barry Bonds was short and direct to the baseball. That’s what Kepler wants to be. He wants to be short to it, long through it. He’s getting the feel of a good, short, direct swing path.”"

Emphasis added. Also, keep reading, there's another passage where Kepler is disregarding Bonds' advice.

Since you’re talking about adding an impact bat(s) to our lineup, who do you have in mind besides Esco, because I really doubt he’ coming back?? Personally, I’d like to see us sign Nelson Cruz and then trade for either Matt Carpenter or Justin Smoak.

Going to preface this by saying I only play at being a GM, like most of us and don't pretend to have all the answers, I know the KIND of bat I want to add, however. I want a veteran, experienced, "professional" hitter who can be dangerous, and hopefully, not only make an impact on the line-up, but provide some leadership as well. I want someone who can be dangerous at the top of the order...meaning he can hit and get OB and provide power...OR, I want a guy who can do that somewhere in the heart of the order.

Why such a seemingly strange diconomy between the two spots? Let's face facts: the Twins can't and won't simply blow up the entire roster and remake the team in one off season. Nor should they. That's ridiculous. We still need, to various degrees, Sano, Buxton and Kepler to take the next step forward. To a lesser extent, same for Rosario, Polanco, Garver and even Cave and Austin. Polanco and Kepler could each prove to be productive table setting options from the 1 hole, but each could prove to even mkre valuable lower in the order.

And your "#1" hitter is only guaranteed to hit lead off once a game.

I'm not just rambling. My point is lineup balance and production. No matter your thoughts on Dozier...not a classic leadoff hitter...he was highly productive in his role. (Despite his streaky nature). A healthy Mauer was moved to the top of the order too late, but provided value there as well.

Rooker could be up sometime in 2019. I feel he's going to be good. Maybe not great, but pretty darn good. Both Khiriloff and Lewis deserve their recent rankings and could make an appearance in 2019, but for various reasons, 2020 seems for likely.

I'm looking for a 1, 1+ or 2 year, 2year + deal. Cruz is very interesting. And he's coming off a nice 2018. But at 38, how much does he have in the tank?

My ideal would be McCutchen, if the Yankees don't re-sign him. He can still play OF. He could be dangerous leading off, flipping the lineup, hitting ahead of or behind a healthy Sano, etc. A couple of other guys I like are Carlos Gonzalez, Nick Markakis and Michael Brantley.

I want versatility. I want the new manager...and his staff...to have lineup versatility and have this new "professional bat" to go along with Polanco, Rosario and Sano to construct a dangerous top of the order with Garver, Austin, Kepler, etc to balance out the rest.

I agree with this and would include Buxton in the "give them a chance but they have to improve" category. I think a lot of the comments here are a reaction  to the idea that Kepler is an "established MLB player" and should be automatically awarded the RF job. Neither is accurate, although I did overstate both a little. Cave outplayed Kepler last year, but in a SSS. 

 

This coming season should be a 3 way batle for the RF and CF jobs. Potential is great, but Buxton and Kepler have had multiple opportunities and have to break out NOW or at least soon.  The law of diminishing returns is taking over soon on both. Cave should get a bigger opportunity based on last year's performance but he only gets a little rope because he's already 25 and strikes out too much. I say Buxton and Cave start out as the CF/RF tandem with Kepler as the 4th OF/LH DH, with all 3 getting 25-30 ABs a week. Playing time then goes to the 2 that perform. I just hope it's a least 2 because it just as easily could be 1 or 0.

 

I like this post a lot LA.

You and I disagree some on Kepler, and that's OK. You are more in the "prove it" category and I'm more in the "I think he will soon" column. And we both like Cave. I chuckle sometimes when I look at someone like Cave, seemingly a bit of a late bloomer at only 25, and wonder what ever happened to the belief in rookies actually learning and growing and improving their next season?

I make no excuses for Buxton. And his injuries flat out stink! But in all my history of watching and following the Twins, the one position where I have seen more mistakes made, and mkre guys rushed, more guys sent back to the minors, or given up on too early, CF takes the cake! From Eisenreichm (some medical issues also there),to Hunter to Gomez and Hicks to now Buxton, there has been a comedy of errors made.

Do the Twins currently have an amazing OF? Absolutely not. Are there questions? 100%! Are we all frustrated? Also 100%! But is there real talent and potential here? You better believe it!

Tom Kelly is highly respected and revered. Deservedly so. He once stated, famously, that it takes 1,500 to 2,000 AB for a hitter to figure things out and to know what you have. (Obviously different, pro and con, for some players). Max has, I believe, about 1,600 ML AB after almost skipping AAA. We have seen glimpses of what he can do, despite weird splits and slumps and hot streaks. Personally, I think he is "oh so close" to putting it together. And I'm giving him 2019 to do so. If he gives way to Khiriloff and becomes a 4th OF/1B I will be disappointed, but will find real value in that. (I still hope for and expect more).

Buxton is not the point of this thread, but bas been brought up. He will begin 2019 virtually ancient at 25yo. If he can just remain healthy, and the new manager, and whoever the hitting coach turns out to be, can just work with him enough to even hit .250, without massive SO totals, his defense, speed, and natural power could make him a difference maker.

Ah, got it. We're not seriously expecting Kepler to play a bunch in CF are we?

Well, that's sort of the question, isn't it? His bat as it stands plays just fine in CF and he accumulated a healthy chunk of his increased WAR by playing many more games in CF this year. I'm not 100% sure he can handle the position full-time defensively, but he did well there last year when he played.

The bat's not so good in RF without improvement, it's just not. Do we have enough offense elsewhere to handle a little below average in RF on offense to get the elite D and positional flexibility? I just don't know.

I think Kepler's fate & potential is one of the most difficult and intriguing offseason questions, I really do.

I think what's concerning is he really isn't improving when it comes to his hit tool. OPS+ of 96, 95, 96 over the last three years is not encouraging. I'm not ready to give up on him by any means, but there's a legitimate concern that this may be who he is at the plate: a low average, reasonably patient hitter with some pop in his bat, but overall a below average hitter.

 

I hope he proves me wrong, but the lack of overall improvement at the MLB level is discouraging. He's not old, but after 3 years in MLB it's hard to go, "well, he's young".

I do not disagree with you.  Our outfield does provide ample time to continue the process with Kep.  Other than Rosario, None of them are particularly great. Buxton, Kepler and Cave all must improve to stay at this level.  

It's definitely intriguing and worthy of discussion for sure. I know some want to throw out the baby with the bath water in regards to Buxton... I still believe he's going to get every opportunity to prove himself with the Twins next season.

 

It's nice Kepler can fill in at CF if Buxton falls on his face again. However, I wouldn't let that stop me from exploring trade opportunities. Cave or someone else could fill in for 30-40 starts when Buxton is banged up.

Since it is relevant to Kepler’s future, what do you (or anyone) mean by Buxton falling on his face? OPS+ in the 70s?

We have to remember that he's just 25. He's just becoming a man, yet he's been a big-leaguer full-time for 3-4 years. I'm comfortable that he'll figure it out soon.

Kepler may be young, but he was in the minors for the maximum amount of time and he has now been in the majors for three seasons. Next year will be his sixth year of professional-level baseball. It took him three seasons to figure out rookie ball, but he was very good most of the time after that.

Kepler has been a successful player when you consider the incredibly long odds he had to make it to the majors at all. He is a success story. If this is his ceiling, he did pretty well for himself. Not a star, but a capable baseball player.

If this is his "ceiling" he will find a place to play for a few years even if the Twins move on. Dependable guys have a place in this sport. If a team is going to choose between a 96 OPS+ player who is 26 and one who is 32, they will chose the 26 year old every time, especially if the younger one can hit a few dingers and play solid defense. Plus, he'll be a hell of a lot cheaper.

Kepler is probably the type of players the Rockies brass salivate over. He hits the ball in the air. Make the trade, Twins.