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While we don’t have a crystal ball to look into, there are a few pieces of a player profile that we can consider when looking at a player’s future. For Garver, he has some interesting considerations.
The Catcher Position:
Garver plays the most taxing position in baseball. Along with the wear and tear of squatting for hours per day, serious injury is always lurking when a 90+MPH object is hurled at you repeatedly and you’re crouched as close as possible to a grown man swinging a giant chunk of wood. Catchers typically don’t age well, and we’ve seen sudden and significant drop offs pretty regularly over the game’s history.
Joe Mauer was downright legendary before a concussion in 2013 hampered his vision and never allowed him to reach peak superstar levels again. Garver already missed the end of 2018 with a concussion. Though he seemed to recover well, another blow to the head can always be catastrophic to an individual’s career and personal well being when they’ve already suffered from concussions in the past. Joe Mauer is a cautionary tale of the ways a career can be derailed by injury behind the plate.
Defense:
Mitch Garver was always a bat first prospect. He notably improved his defense to passable levels, and in 2019 made impressive gains in the framing stat which has become more and more valuable. He may very well continue to improve, but he likely has a ceiling on his defensive ability given the raw tools he possesses.
Many catcher’s careers have been extended as a result of their defensive mastery long after their offensive production has dried up. Garver simply doesn’t have that safety net. His improvement from -17 to +1 defensive runs saved from 2018-2019 is impressive, but it’s still close to neutral. It’s safe to say Garver’s defense isn’t the foundation of his future as a starting catcher.
Offense:
We very well may have seen Garver’s career year in 2019. A 29% home run to fly ball percentage just doesn’t consistently happen. That being said, it wasn’t the mirage that some GarvSauce haters claim it to be. Garver possesses the useful skill of commanding the strike zone. He swung at pitches off the plate around 20% of the time in 2019 (Rosario swung at about 46% for reference).
On one hand this allows for great on base skills. On a more important note however, it allows Garver to force pitchers to throw him something he can drive. In 2019 he did a great job of not missing his chances as evidenced by his 97th percentile hard hit rate. While that HR/FB% was inflated, there’s something to be said about hitting the ball as hard as Garver does when it’s combined with the amount of fly balls he hits (47.3% of the time). Commanding the plate often ages well, and Garver’s bat should remain a steady source of production for as long as his physical tools allow him to punish those hittable pitches.
Garver’s future looks bright as you would expect after the kind of Mike Piazza-esque season he just assembled. It’s fair to question how it plays out however given the injury prone position he plays and the neutral defensive prowess he offers at a position where defense is revered. He possesses a skill few catchers do however: The offensive ability to be valuable at another position. Nelson Cruz will call it a career at some point. Should they consider shifting Garver to a 1B/DH role to minimize the physical breakdown and maximize his offensive talent? Could he just simply slug his way into a stranglehold of the starting job behind the plate for years to come? What do you think Mitch Garver’s future holds?
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