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  • What Does Carlos Correa's Return Mean for the 2023 Twins?


    Nash Walker

    The long-standing saga is finally over. Was it worth the treacherous, annoying wait? I certainly think so. The Twins have agreed to terms with Carlos Correa in a stunning twist to the craziest free agency story in recent memory. Now onto the baseball: how does Correa impact the 2023 roster?

     

    Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

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    On the surface, Carlos Correa’s return isn’t an addition. He played 136 games for the Twins in 2022, hitting .291/.366/.467 (140 OPS+) while producing 5.4 b-Wins Above Replacement. Correa lead the team in bWAR and OPS (.834), mostly thanks to a scalding September. 

    While “adding” a player of Correa’s ilk is always exciting, many Twins fans may be understandably more skeptical of his impact on the roster. The Twins won only 78 games last year, with Correa mostly healthy; why should we expect more with a similar group in 2023?

    The Twins collapsed late in the summer, making Correa’s torrid finish a forgotten tale. The fresh memory on many minds is Correa’s inability to hit with runners in scoring position when the Twins needed him all summer. Through July 1st, Correa posted a wRC+ of 85 with runners in scoring position, well below the league average of 106. 

    Naturally, Correa posted a sterling 128 wRC+ with runners in scoring position after July 1st. We’ve learned through study (and this book) that great hitters are great hitters no matter the situation. Correa’s career OPS with runners in scoring position is .818. His career OPS with no men on base? .825. 

    Correa had a tremendous second half in 2022, hitting .304/.380/.486 (149 wRC+) while producing 2.4 f-Wins Above Replacement. Correa was top-10 in the American League in Win Probability Added after the All-Star break. Correa's slower start could be due to a shortened spring training, heightened pressure on a quasi-one-year deal, or simple batted-ball luck. Whatever it was, Correa put it in the rearview after the first half. 

    While it’s understandable to question Correa’s true impact, his .730 OPS with RISP in 2022 is due for positive regression. He should drive in more runs and provide more overall impact at the plate throughout the season. Trust the numbers here, including his highest hard-hit rate since 2017 (44.7%). 

    The concern with his right ankle isn't insignificant. Two teams took the PR hit rather than commit huge money to Correa. Something must be up, right? It's impossible to know for sure. Correa may have a rough time through his 30s... or he may not. In a refreshing change of pace, the Twins are taking the risk. Players of Correa's stature are rarely available to the Twins in free agency. 

    It’s easy to forget the hype surrounding Correa when the Twins signed him last March. We’re honestly talking about a generational shortstop. Through their age-27 seasons, only three shortstops have more bWAR than Correa since the Senators moved to Minnesota: Alex Rodríguez, Robin Yount, and Cal Ripken Jr. 

    Among those shortstops who logged at least 3,500 plate appearances, Correa ranks 3rd in OPS+ behind only A-Rod and Hanley Ramírez. Since 2019, Correa’s 39 Defensive Runs Saved are the most among all shortstops. He’s a unique talent, evidenced by at least two teams offering him over $300 million in contracts this winter. 

    FanGraphs ZiPS projects Correa for 5.6 fWAR in 2023. That’s the highest among Twins and a full 4.2 more than Kyle Farmer. Correa completely changes the outlook of the current roster, especially considering the Twins are much deeper in pitching talent than they were on Opening Day in 2022. 

    The "Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings" from Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs pegged the Twins for 81 wins before the Correa, Christian Vázquez, and Joey Gallo signings. We can reasonably expect that projected win total to rise at least four notches after these moves. As currently constructed, the Twins look like an 85-86 win team. Add a frontline starter via trade, and that number will approach the desired 90. Correa was a key piece as one of the best free agents available. 

    Beyond his impact on the field, the Twins will welcome Correa, the person, back with open arms. Byron Buxton, José Miranda, and countless other team members spoke highly of their new friend and teammate throughout the 2022 season. Correa’s postseason experience and pedigree - things we lauded him for less than a year ago - are needed more than ever. 

    It’s natural to wonder if the Twins are truly getting *better* with the move to retain their star shortstop. Every season and roster is different, and the Twins are much better today than they were yesterday. Continue to acquire great players, and great things tend to happen. Correa is a great player. 

    Excitement is warranted. 

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    Acquire McCutchen or someone similar  and they’ll have an awesome lineup against LHP. 

    C Vázquez

    1B Miranda

    2B Polanco 

    SS Correa

    3B Farmer

    LF McCutchen/Garlick/random vet

    CF Buxton

    RF Gallo

    DH, I’m not sure. Could put Celestino in LF and McCutchen at DH. Or one of the lefties. Or Arraez but I like giving his knees a rest against LHP. 

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    One player - even one as good as CC does not make a team as we found out in 2022. BUT - the health Gods have to be on our side this year don't they?  After last year being the experiment of getting injured to possibly never return - it HAS to be better right?

    A nice blend of vets and young guys sound like a way to win if we can stay healthy.

    BUT - we still have about $15M more to spend right?  A right handed OF bat would be great.  Anyone looking for a corner left hand bat we can trade for a right hand bat perhaps?  Give them Kepler and get someone who can be the next Garlick at a higher level.

     

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    The big difference last year wasn't the players it was the health management. Hopefully Pararesta can influence management to change their way to focus on keeping our players fresh & healthy throughout the season & into the post season. Some of it was bad luck but I predict that will change. 

    Our BP and catching are much better. With Correa & Buxton up the middle it provides great structure to work from. Get a front line SP & we're set.

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    Since I do not buy in to Gallo, the retention of Correa keeps the status quo, but Vazquez is actually the person who moves us up a notch.  No more Sanchez and Jeffers can work on getting better.  The team is in a better situation.  I like Miranda at third, Kiriloff at 1st with Arraez, Larhach or Wallner at DH - quit looking at has beens.  We need to move forward and this can make a difference.  Now the biggest need is for Maeda and Mahle to reach the levels that were projected.  The team is feeling better if we can pull all these things together and if they are willing to pull the Gallo plug if he does not work out. 

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    I'm with you on most of this---6 yrs is a respectable contract length, not the ridiculous 10-12.  He does a lot to gel the core of the team and make the Latin players feel more at home in the TC's.

    However, I am not following you here:

    Correa completely changes the outlook of the current roster, especially considering the Twins are much deeper in pitching talent than they were on Opening Day in 2022. 

    ??

    If you mean several injured pitchers coming back from substantial medical procedures that we are HOPING will be OK on the mound...........I guess I can follow your reasoning.

     

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    I still feel health is what will make the Twins better this season, but also addition by subtraction is in play here. In two ways. 

    1. Sano and Sanchez are gone. Gallo is here, yes, but that's one .200 high strikeout player, not two. Plus Gallo can be an upgrade in getting on base and defensively if he rebounds at all.

    2. Correa's return means the Twins don't lose his bat and glove, which is crucial. It means that Farmer is infield depth and might even allow them to move an IF via trade. But, really, not losing him means that they didn't downgrade.

    Looking forward to your Podcast on this, Nash.

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    Correa Signing fills a huge hole at Shortstop and gives the team another potent right handed bat which are in short supply on this team.  With Correa they can now mix and match the future infield  With right handed bats Miranda, Lewis, Correa. Polanco\Lee, Martin or go more lefty with Gordon, Correa, Arraez, Jullien, Lee\Polanco.  Some of those players can also mix and match in the outfield.  Correa makes this team stronger while the young guys earn their way up.  if the pitching holds up this signing might have saved the season.  Still need good health and bounce backs from the younger players but the Twins are in much better shape now than before the signing.  Oh and only having that high AAV for 6 years helps down the road as well.  This deal is about as good as we could have hoped for.

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    1 minute ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

    I'm with you on most of this---6 yrs is a respectable contract length, not the ridiculous 10-12.  He does a lot to gel the core of the team and make the Latin players feel more at home in the TC's.

    However, I am not following you here:

    Correa completely changes the outlook of the current roster, especially considering the Twins are much deeper in pitching talent than they were on Opening Day in 2022. 

    ??

    If you mean several injured pitchers coming back from substantial medical procedures that we are HOPING will be OK on the mound...........I guess I can follow your reasoning.

     

    Bundy and Archer were their worst starters last year. They have Ober, Valand, Winder, SWR all ready to take their place. That doesn't count Mahle or Maeda as depth/starters at all. They are, without question, much deeper than last year at this time and it isn't close.

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    55 minutes ago, raindog said:

    Acquire McCutchen or someone similar  and they’ll have an awesome lineup against LHP. 

    C Vázquez

    1B Miranda

    2B Polanco 

    SS Correa

    3B Farmer

    LF McCutchen/Garlick/random vet

    CF Buxton

    RF Gallo

    DH, I’m not sure. Could put Celestino in LF and McCutchen at DH. Or one of the lefties. Or Arraez but I like giving his knees a rest against LHP. 

    Acquire McCutchen…….against lefties, he’s in Right Field. We also have 8 other RH bats to start if desired!!

    Garlick in LF

    Buxton in CF

    Farmer at 3B

    Miranda at 1B

    Vazquez at DH

    Jeffers at C

    Correa at SS

    Polanco at 2B

    Hopefully, Celestino is not an option for the line-up.

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    32 minutes ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

    I'm with you on most of this---6 yrs is a respectable contract length, not the ridiculous 10-12.  He does a lot to gel the core of the team and make the Latin players feel more at home in the TC's.

    However, I am not following you here:

    Correa completely changes the outlook of the current roster, especially considering the Twins are much deeper in pitching talent than they were on Opening Day in 2022. 

    ??

    If you mean several injured pitchers coming back from substantial medical procedures that we are HOPING will be OK on the mound...........I guess I can follow your reasoning.

     

    Replacing Archer & Bundy with Mahle & Maeda is a definite upgrade, injuries or no. Having Varland & Woods Richardson at the next options up with them already having some MLB experience and success is also an improvement. The rotation is deeper and better than at the start of last season. There's a good argument to make that the bullpen is better positioned as well; Lopez is more talented than some of the pitchers we were running out last season, Duran is proven now, and Pagan is pushed way down the depth charts. I'm not ready to say we have the bullpen locked yet, but it's in at least as good a position as opening day last year, arguably better.

    Correa is just such an upgrade at SS over Farmer. (who is a nice enough player, but much better suited to a utility role)

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    2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    Since I do not buy in to Gallo, the retention of Correa keeps the status quo, but Vazquez is actually the person who moves us up a notch.  No more Sanchez and Jeffers can work on getting better.  The team is in a better situation.  I like Miranda at third, Kiriloff at 1st with Arraez, Larhach or Wallner at DH - quit looking at has beens.  We need to move forward and this can make a difference.  Now the biggest need is for Maeda and Mahle to reach the levels that were projected.  The team is feeling better if we can pull all these things together and if they are willing to pull the Gallo plug if he does not work out. 

    Its not status quo when you consider a bunch of home grown kids age 22-26 that are now a year older, wiser and uninjured. Status quo was 1st place in the central by 5-8 games in June 2022. 

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    1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

    Replacing Archer & Bundy with Mahle & Maeda is a definite upgrade, injuries or no. Having Varland & Woods Richardson at the next options up with them already having some MLB experience and success is also an improvement. The rotation is deeper and better than at the start of last season. There's a good argument to make that the bullpen is better positioned as well; Lopez is more talented than some of the pitchers we were running out last season, Duran is proven now, and Pagan is pushed way down the depth charts. I'm not ready to say we have the bullpen locked yet, but it's in at least as good a position as opening day last year, arguably better.

    Correa is just such an upgrade at SS over Farmer. (who is a nice enough player, but much better suited to a utility role)

    Chris Paddack is also in the mix when he returns from Tommy John surgery sometime during the year.   Still, I would like the Twins to acquire an ace.   The squeamish here will balk at Trevor Bauer, but he has the upside to boost this rotation.  Admit this at least, Twins Daily will be a more interesting place to visit if he is added.  
    Trevor Bauer is nowhere near the number of second chances that the Twins gave to Steve Howe!!!! 

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    18 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

     The squeamish here

    Probably not a good idea to question the motives or mental states of others simply because they disagree with you.  Where the topic of Bauer is concerned, returning the favor would seem like low-hanging fruit.

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