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On the surface, Carlos Correa’s return isn’t an addition. He played 136 games for the Twins in 2022, hitting .291/.366/.467 (140 OPS+) while producing 5.4 b-Wins Above Replacement. Correa lead the team in bWAR and OPS (.834), mostly thanks to a scalding September.
While “adding” a player of Correa’s ilk is always exciting, many Twins fans may be understandably more skeptical of his impact on the roster. The Twins won only 78 games last year, with Correa mostly healthy; why should we expect more with a similar group in 2023?
The Twins collapsed late in the summer, making Correa’s torrid finish a forgotten tale. The fresh memory on many minds is Correa’s inability to hit with runners in scoring position when the Twins needed him all summer. Through July 1st, Correa posted a wRC+ of 85 with runners in scoring position, well below the league average of 106.
Naturally, Correa posted a sterling 128 wRC+ with runners in scoring position after July 1st. We’ve learned through study (and this book) that great hitters are great hitters no matter the situation. Correa’s career OPS with runners in scoring position is .818. His career OPS with no men on base? .825.
Correa had a tremendous second half in 2022, hitting .304/.380/.486 (149 wRC+) while producing 2.4 f-Wins Above Replacement. Correa was top-10 in the American League in Win Probability Added after the All-Star break. Correa's slower start could be due to a shortened spring training, heightened pressure on a quasi-one-year deal, or simple batted-ball luck. Whatever it was, Correa put it in the rearview after the first half.
While it’s understandable to question Correa’s true impact, his .730 OPS with RISP in 2022 is due for positive regression. He should drive in more runs and provide more overall impact at the plate throughout the season. Trust the numbers here, including his highest hard-hit rate since 2017 (44.7%).
The concern with his right ankle isn't insignificant. Two teams took the PR hit rather than commit huge money to Correa. Something must be up, right? It's impossible to know for sure. Correa may have a rough time through his 30s... or he may not. In a refreshing change of pace, the Twins are taking the risk. Players of Correa's stature are rarely available to the Twins in free agency.
It’s easy to forget the hype surrounding Correa when the Twins signed him last March. We’re honestly talking about a generational shortstop. Through their age-27 seasons, only three shortstops have more bWAR than Correa since the Senators moved to Minnesota: Alex Rodríguez, Robin Yount, and Cal Ripken Jr.
Among those shortstops who logged at least 3,500 plate appearances, Correa ranks 3rd in OPS+ behind only A-Rod and Hanley Ramírez. Since 2019, Correa’s 39 Defensive Runs Saved are the most among all shortstops. He’s a unique talent, evidenced by at least two teams offering him over $300 million in contracts this winter.
FanGraphs ZiPS projects Correa for 5.6 fWAR in 2023. That’s the highest among Twins and a full 4.2 more than Kyle Farmer. Correa completely changes the outlook of the current roster, especially considering the Twins are much deeper in pitching talent than they were on Opening Day in 2022.
The "Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings" from Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs pegged the Twins for 81 wins before the Correa, Christian Vázquez, and Joey Gallo signings. We can reasonably expect that projected win total to rise at least four notches after these moves. As currently constructed, the Twins look like an 85-86 win team. Add a frontline starter via trade, and that number will approach the desired 90. Correa was a key piece as one of the best free agents available.
Beyond his impact on the field, the Twins will welcome Correa, the person, back with open arms. Byron Buxton, José Miranda, and countless other team members spoke highly of their new friend and teammate throughout the 2022 season. Correa’s postseason experience and pedigree - things we lauded him for less than a year ago - are needed more than ever.
It’s natural to wonder if the Twins are truly getting *better* with the move to retain their star shortstop. Every season and roster is different, and the Twins are much better today than they were yesterday. Continue to acquire great players, and great things tend to happen. Correa is a great player.
Excitement is warranted.
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