Week in Review: New-Look Rotation

Bummer the Twins aren't in the hunt, but I think it's still fun to see prospects getting chances.

I agree the Twins have spoken on Gordon and I think they have ample reason to doubt his ability to play at the MLB level. It's just a personal pet peeve of mine to see younger players who aren't given a chance but who are still locked down with team control. I remember another player who wasn't good enough to play shortstop a few years ago because he had no bat and questionable defense. Some fans might remember him. He played a couple years on the Twins after that. His name was Eduardo Escobar and he almost didn't get a shot to play because he was stashed way behind perennial MVP candidate Pedro Florimon.

Ober is doing what he can to make a case for a rotation spot next year and Martin is a nice bright spot. Speaking of bright spots, Simeon Woods-Richardson and Joe Ryan should be headed back to the USA from the Tokyo Olympics soon. Honestly, such a bummer Woods-Richardson's number didn't come up after the rainout game scheduled with Puerto Rico, but I'm sure it was a blast anyway.

someone who was missed.  Cave went 5 for 18 with 2 walks and a triple since coming back from the DL.  That is a .278/.350/.389 and .734 OPS.  I think if Cave can hit .250 with 9 or 10 walks in 120 ABs with 5 doubles and 5 Hrs he will make a nice case to return next year as a back up.  and with The guy we traded for him, I would like to see Cave end up with close to 1200 -1500 ABs  by the time he leaves Minnesota to give us a better return on that trade.  

I think Baily Ober has almost shown me enough to have the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation locked down.  He has great strikeout rates, low walk rates, and ok hit rates.  I think he just needs to be able to show he can pick up where he leaves off this year next year.  He seems pretty consistent.  Jax shows potential.  so I want to give him time.  I donl't know how much he has but probably more than Barnes.  While Barnes hasn't been horrible I think he is the easiest to replace in the rotation.

I don't see why we are wasting time with Barnes, send him back to St. Paul and bring up another young pitcher, or maybe they will bring up Thorpe when he is stretched out.  

Agree on Simmons, but feel the Twins do not want to spoil the 2 top minor league teams by moving more players to Minnesota.  Won't mind seeing Ryan up here, we have nothing to lose at this time, and he has not pitched in our system, so we are not costing a farm club an arm. 

Outside of that, move Burrows and bring up another arm, if he is just used for mop duty, we have other pitchers we need to see.

It's only one week but the new rotation and BP members gave us reason to believe in a much better brand of baseball for the remainder of the season and a much better product next year.  Sure would be nice to see similar pitching this week.  More help is on the way too.  I would not be surprised if Joe Ryan is moved straight to the big club.  If not, we should get a look at him and a couple other pitchers soon.  

Hope we see Ryan up with the big club after a few games in St Paul. His stuff looked legit in the Olympics. We need him to claim a spot in next year's rotation

Nice article.  I would request you or Seth do another article on pitching prospects - take our current young pitchers, the old list of Dobnak/Lewis/Smeltzer, the newly acquired, and the minor leaguers including those on the IL and give us a ranking that is based on MLB potential.  All these names keep popping up and the newest names always look best because they have not had a chance to show us why they are not great so please help us out.  We now have all these arms and I wonder about Ober/Jax/Barnes in comparison - do they get the slots because of seniority or talent?

Right now, for next year rotation is only Maeda. I think they will bring a couple of free agents, so there will be 2 spots available next year. As of now the one that looks better positioned to take advantage of the opportunity is Ober. Then I think the second spot is close: Jax, Barnes, Thorpe?, one of the new guys? That is an interesting race to see till the end of the season. (I don't put Balazovich, Duran and the other younger guys because I don't think they will be ready at the beggining of next season, but I might be wrong)

Thanks for another great read, Nick.

As they trot different pitchers out the next six weeks, really looking forward to seeing Dobnak and Thorpe.  Want a healthy Dobber confirm that he can be included in next year's plans in the starting five.  Want to see Thorpe get one last chance to prove that he can be a solid big league starter.  If he doesn't, his 40-man spot is in jeopardy and expect he will be gone.  Also looking forward to see Ryan, but for different reasons.

None of us knows who the starting shortstop will be come next July.  Will Martin or Lewis move quickly enough to claim it?  And I was thinking what you wrote prior to reading it, I want to see Arraez and Martin back to back at the top of future Twins lineups for the rest of the decade.  Will destroy opposing pitchers confidence.

With Simmons very disappointing offense, looks like we still have a big hole at SS next year.  We have a bunch of middle IFs - Polanco, Arraez, Martin, and maybe in a year, Lewis - but none seem to fit the need for an above average fielder at the most critical position.  Polanco makes sense for remainder of this year, but they signed Simmons because Polanco was not good enough at SS.  Arraez is certainly not the man and from scattered reports so far, neither Martin or Lewis seems to fit the bill.  Both have been mentioned several times as more suited for OF.

Kneejerk rx may be to just sign one of the stellar FA SSs coming on the market, but that just seems like a waste of payroll with the need for pitching far more important than SS.  Isn't it folly to think that any one of our prospects can slot into any of the top 3 spots in the rotation in 2022?  Not to even mention bullpen needs.  If Twins really want to return to relevancy in 2022, they must spend some big bucks on pitching - and more importantly, resign Buxton.  Those should be top priorities.

One way to start sorting out the different pieces might be to bring up Martin to play 3B and move Donaldson to DH.  I know that's a real push for Martin but what else does he have to prove at SP?  Arraez should stay at 2B  and Polanco at SS.  One advantage I see is that this move can free up some trade pieces for a solid rotation piece.  Arraez, Sano and even Lewis might bring in some real pitching talent.   Just speculating, of course, but these next two months must be used to get better clarification on next year, not to recycle players who will not be part on 2022 roster.   And that includes pushing Ryan into the rotation and one or two minor league relievers up now, rather than wait for September.

This front office will need to show patience. Most MLB pitchers aren't that successful right out of the gate. If you look back in Twins history, guys like Frank Viola and Brad Radke had 300+ MLB innings under their belts before they put it all together. If they think these guys have the stuff, they're going to have to let them take their lumps and not shuttle them back and forth to St Paul or the waiver wire. It's probably going to make for a long season in 2022, but we are where we are.

Other than winning ( or losing) some meaningless games, as the Twins grind to finish 2021,  how is it helping the Twins to play Simmons, Pinada or Colome ?

15 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Other than winning ( or losing) some meaningless games, as the Twins grind to finish 2021,  how is it helping the Twins to play Simmons, Pinada or Colome ?

Agree. Though I'd go Simmons, Colome, Donaldson, Sano. I'd release Simmons and Colome, move Donaldson to DH, park Sano on the bench for pinch-hitting duty (a la Randy Bush), bring up Miranda to play 3rd, move Polanco back to SS and Arraez to 2nd. Then we'd have a real glimpse at next year's possibilities.

2 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Agree. Though I'd go Simmons, Colome, Donaldson, Sano. I'd release Simmons and Colome, move Donaldson to DH, park Sano on the bench for pinch-hitting duty (a la Randy Bush), bring up Miranda to play 3rd, move Polanco back to SS and Arraez to 2nd. Then we'd have a real glimpse at next year's possibilities.

Oh, and bring Gordon back up and rotate him in at SS and 2nd. Give the kid a real opportunity to prove or disprove he can't play middle infield.

45 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Other than winning ( or losing) some meaningless games, as the Twins grind to finish 2021,  how is it helping the Twins to play Simmons, Pinada or Colome ?

I think Pinada will probably be resigned here (or I hope he will be).  Colume seems to be fine as a closer on a losing club, do not see him doing it on a winning club.  Agree Simmons needs to be benched except for late inning defense.

I wonder what Tony Gwynn, Ozzie Smith, or Rod Carew's barrel % was? Seriously, were those hits all barrelled? Would guys like that get a chance to play in 2021?

Greg Maddox won 15 games in 1990 (along with 8 complete games). In 2021, would he have been sent down to AAA because of he only averaged 5 strikeouts per 9?

Not saying barrel % and k/9 don't matter, just wondering how many great players from the past wouldn't have been considered roadkill in today's all-or-nothing game.

17 minutes ago, beckmt said:

Agree Simmons needs to be benched except for late inning defense.

Simmons' defense is still strong, and his field awareness is keen. If I were the manager, I'd want that experience on the field as an example to the younger players and to give the young SPs and RPs a potential boost (and maybe even to shorten their innings). But otherwise I agree - after 2021, time to move on.

38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd 100% prefer Thorpe move the bullpen, where he has a much better chance of being a MLB pitcher. Ober, Jax, Dobnak are all as good or better than Thorpe as starters. Give Thorpe a legit shot to be part of the bullpen. 

I agree with you.  I think Thorpe's best chance to stick is in relief and he should have enough pitches to get lefties and righties out.  He doesn't throw that hard as it is but his arm can at least play up in the pen.  I just can't see him starting anymore. Not sure what happened but as he filled out it seems like he has lost arm speed etc.  As seen this year we could use all the good pen arms we can find.  If he can be good there it solves one more spot.

22 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Re: New Look Rotation:

As of now, how I see the 2022 rotation shaking out like this:

1.  ?

2. ?

3. Maeda (optimistic)

4. ?

5. Ober

I don’t usually care for one year “make good” pitcher contracts, but next year sure, go to town. Find a couple guys one year for cheap. I’m sure Pineda would come back, as well.

So yes I do think Ryan slots into the rotation next season, and hopefully performs in a slot above where Maeda is. I’m not confident in the other two pitchers they traded for contributing in 2022 at this point.

If we don't find 3 respectable veteran arms to fill in those question marks it'll be pure negligence by the front office. Maeda is no sure bet to rebound to even a #3 next year. Ober and the rest of the prospects could be fine or could be up and down all year working through adjustments. And most of our pitching prospects have innings limits, balky elbows, or other health risks. Any team needs to plan for 7-8 starters to get through a year, minimum. The floor can get a whole lot lower than we saw this season if we don't backstop the rotation with some real arms.

Fun week, and I agree there are a couple more moves to make as we evaluate this group. Pitching wise, get Ryan up to take Barnes' place when he's back from the Olympics. Put Thorpe in the bullpen when he's ready. We need to see if he can be effective because he's in his last option year. I would also try to find a way to give Gant a few starts. He's been very effective as a reliever, was a starter and wants to start. Let's see if he can. Worst case scenario, he's in the bullpen next year (still amazed at the trade for him).  I also think we need to give Hamilton and Moran a shot in the bullpen. They can take the place of Burrows and Coulombe.

I disagree with the posters who want to release Colome. He's been effective for the last two months and we need a back end guy with Rogers on the IL for the rest of the year. Use 2021 to evaluate him We may need him next year.   

In the field, I think everybody we need to see is already up with the possible exception of Miranda and he's only a Donaldson IL stint from being needed. I suspect they'll keep him and Martin in the minors so the don't have to make a 40 man roster move by releasing someone else and also not burn an option year since they're both in the 23 and under range.  

38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Well.... Gordon isn't getting singles either. And he is an ok fielder. He also swings at everything outside the zone. He has zero in common with the players you mentioned. Also, just because we used to not have data before does but mean it isn't useful.

I understand why Gordon's being sent down. I'm just saying that with some seasoning, the kid could probably hit .250 and steal 40 bases. Maybe seems like the type of player who could have had a chance to play a few full seasons in the 70s, 80s, or 90s.

I'm not saying he should be here, or even deserves to be here in 2021. Just observing and bringing up a conversation, nothing more.

3 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Agree. Though I'd go Simmons, Colome, Donaldson, Sano. I'd release Simmons and Colome, move Donaldson to DH, park Sano on the bench for pinch-hitting duty (a la Randy Bush), bring up Miranda to play 3rd, move Polanco back to SS and Arraez to 2nd. Then we'd have a real glimpse at next year's possibilities.

If horrible infield defense is the glimpse of next years possibilities that you want to see, doing as you suggest is definitely the way to go.

So back to the topic of rotation, what the Twins do in the offseason to address their rotation will determine whether or not their goal is to be .500+ (Pineda, Cueto) go for the World Series (Verlander, Stroman) or start planning their surprise at being awful speech before the season starts (all Twins controlled guys)

It's kind of interesting to see so many comments on Thorpe. I expect he'll be non-tendered and catch on in Korea or something.

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure why they'd move Polanco back to SS. He's not good there. He's a legit good 2B. I'm not sure why I mess with that.

They do not have a SS in the system. It is priority 2 in FA this year for sure (or trade). 

That's why you keep playing Simmons. Because Polanco is a 2B. 

The real question is what is Arraez if Polanco is your 2B?

I believe Falvine recently said that Royce Lewis is definitely a SS. I expect they will give him every opportunity to play there and see how his ACL recovers.