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Back injuries are tricky when it comes to pitchers. The motion of pitching relies so heavily on bending and twisting of the back, and any kind of pain can easily disrupt these necessary movements. Further complicating things, the physical grind required of a Major League pitcher leaves them little opportunity to rest a back injury during the season and they typically end up pitching through it for better or worse.
Odorizzi’s 2017 was a perfect example. Odorizzi admitted to suffering an injury in the weight room in 2017 and struggled with back pain through most of the season. He allowed a career high 1.88 HR/9 and his career worst 5.43 FIP was suppressed by a .227 batting average on balls in play. At season’s end, he worked on stabilizing and strengthening his back and successfully staved off the pain he had suffered through.
Odorizzi’s first year as a Twin in 2018 was pain free but not overly impressive while essentially filling a spot in the rotation with a 4.49 ERA. He impressed in flashes but was inconsistent. It was this offseason that he made his change.
Odorizzi decided to go all in on improving his mechanics and arsenal by attending the Florida Baseball Ranch. If you’re interested in the work Odorizzi did, it’s outlined on their website. Long story short, two years after a back injury that had seemingly healed, Odorizzi’s mechanics were still disjointed as a result. He made some changes and strengthened his back to avoid relapse and the result was a career year in 2019.
https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1181398653929447424
So now we find ourselves in 2020 where Odorizzi is again suffering from back pain to open the season. Upon his return, the Twins will certainly hope for some semblance of the Jake Odorizzi of 2019. Can we count on that though?
2020 has a sense of urgency to it with a 60 game regular season. It’ll be harder to wait until Jake’s back is completely healed to get him back on the mound and we won’t truly know until we see how effective he is. There was a strong correlation to Odorizzi’s effectiveness and his average fastball velocity increase (a career high of 93 MPH in 2019). A step back in this fastball velocity may be an indicator to look for as to what we can expect from Odorizzi moving forward when he returns.
Another issue to consider is recurrence of the injury. Odorizzi has already struggled with his back multiple times in his career as we’ve seen, as back injuries commonly pop up repeatedly. He could come back feeling great only to reinjure it two weeks down the line. At 30 years old, the likelihood continues to increase. Take a look at Clayton Kershaw. Two years older than Odorizzi, Kershaw suffered a back injury in 2014 and has continued to struggle with it ever since, also missing opening day in 2020. It’s worth noting that the previous two years, Kershaw’s ages 30 and 31 seasons, his fastball velocity had dropped precipitously. Kershaw has one of the deepest arsenals in baseball to compensate. What happens if Odorizzi see’s a similar trend though?
In summation, I’m pretty concerned about Odorizzi’s 2020, and you should be too. While better than an IL trip for a torn UCL or something of that nature, a back injury shouldn’t be discounted for a pitcher with a history of this injury. Odorizzi in particular makes a living with his fastball which would be the first skill to suffer if the back is compromised. So what do you think? Is this a minor issue? Are you concerned for the long(ish) haul of the season for Odorizzi? How has this affected your thoughts on an extension? Let us know below.
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