Using Derek Falvey and Thad Levine's Past to Forecast the Minnesota Twins' 2019 Trade Deadline

Enjoyed the article - but one thing that the Indians and Rangers didn't/don't have is an ownership group like the Pohlads. That is the one factor that I think we need to remember as being in play.

Enjoyed the article - but one thing that the Indians and Rangers didn't/don't have is an ownership group like the Pohlads. That is the one factor that I think we need to remember as being in play.

I think this is hugely misunderstood. I don't know what the other ownership regimes they worked under were like, but I think people mischaracterize the Pohalds.

Let me start by saying I loathe what the Pohlads stand for in many ways. Since the next generation took over, however, they have made it clear that they are not "baseball people", and say it regularly in front of staff and even fans.

They always delegated the responsibility of payroll to Terry Ryan or Billy Smith, who were running the team under the mindset Carl ran the team on, when they were far less profitable. 

They continue to delegate all responsibility to their new regime, and that regime says they spend whenever asked on infrastructure and development (I asked this directly of them at a STH meeting).

The problem with them is that they don't exude a desire to win to the fans. When the people they delegate to are budget conscious, it makes them look bad, and they have literally zero PR skills as an organization outside of cheesy feel good marketing campaigns.

Cool article.  If I am ever on a sport radio call in quiz, it will be good to remember that the Rangers lost two straight World Series in 2010-11.  I completely had forgotten, but the Cliff Lee deal helped me remember those teams a bit.

I just don't believe the woe is me stereotypes will play out.  The FO will get some help, and the only thing we'll be lamenting is the loss of some prospects.

Well I don't expect us to trade for David Price and his 30 million per year contract. Though I bet we wouldn't have to trade much to get him.....but I see the Twins doing what is needed to get done to get us players. Rooker is a great trade chip as is Gordon and Larnarch. We will not have a place for these guys for a few years with others coming up.

They always delegated the responsibility of payroll to Terry Ryan or Billy Smith, who were running the team under the mindset Carl ran the team on, when they were far less profitable. 

 

They continue to delegate all responsibility to their new regime, and that regime says they spend whenever asked on infrastructure and development (I asked this directly of them at a STH meeting).

Bill Smith was given enough rope, it seems, but Jim and Terry were both clear that every expenditure had to be run through both Jim Pohlad and Dave St. Peter after Smith was demoted.

St. Peter has stepped back since Levine was hired, but Levine has still made it clear that he has to run things through Jim.

The closest thing to what you are alluding to is a statement by Jim Pohlad during the Terry Ryan firing stating he was surprised that Terry Ryan didn't come to him more often to ask for more money in order to make a move. Considering payroll is heading downward since then, I suspect this statement was largely for PR.

Heck, every statement this team has made since 2010 regarding payroll has been for PR. Reality has never jived with their statements.

 

Let me start by saying I loathe what the Pohlads stand for in many ways.

I'm not from Minnesota. What is it that the Pohlads stand for which is so lothesome?

This feels like it was written by the Twins PR department.

 

Until the Twins show that they'll make significant payroll additions, we should correctly assume they won't. This FO refused to add to a playoff caliber team two years, so, until they do, we should assume they won't. 

 

My guess is that the Twins do a few minor moves to bring in bullpen help - maybe even taking on a little salary - and losing some prospects in the 15-30 range but nothing bigger than that. I think we'll hear rumors that the Twins are interested/close to making a big move but it won't pan out.

I imagine more will be done than in the TR years -- where we would often see one token move at the last possible second to make sure there wasn't an uproar among fans and the press -- but as to the caliber of this year's moves it's impossible to know.

One thing is for certain, any move the Twins could make that would make a difference would be an expensive one, both with cash and prospects. And, yes, if they don't make an appropriate move or two I can see this team fading down the stretch.

Saving money year after year only makes sense if you're willing to spend that money you saved when the time is right. The Twin Cities have proven that the seats will be full when the team does well, and they'll be empty when the team sucks. The path forward for this team could not be more clear.

I'm not from Minnesota. What is it that the Pohlads stand for which is so lothesome?

Carl started out by buying foreclosed properties (mostly farms) during the Great Depression. He continued to buy failed or failing assets and properties, including banks, land, buildings, etc., throughout his lifetime.

Note a couple of things:

- Though the Pohlad family was valued at $3.6B as late as 2015, Jim is suspected to only have cash in the $1M - $10M range in spite of running the both the Twins and managing the real estate holdings. How would you feel about doling out $100M contracts when you have much less than that?

- The $3.6B value in 2015 appears to be going downward, though I'm not sure how as the economy has been good, so take this with a grain of salt.

- The liquid assets in the family that come from the businesses are shared by 20 different people and their families. Jim probably doesn't have the control we think he does. If the Twins go in the red, it affects a lot of people, all in his family.

Owners that like to intervene usually tend to do so either in the way of limiting spending in the offseason or when a team is trying to offload a franchise cornerstone that puts people in the seats (see Manny Machado in Baltimore a few years ago). Dealing prospects is usually a spot where ownership will put full faith in the front office. I'd guess Falvey and Levine have full control.

I would simply add to that to say provided they don’t add ridiculously to payroll. I’m sure they have a dollar amount that ownership will allow them to add. What that is, none of us fans have any way of knowing.

(Also, and this is the worst bit, until recently the Pohlads were the regional bottler for Pepsi. Gross.)

The FO told at the start of the season they were going to wait to see how the season developed before making a big addition.  Now we are a contender and have been trading for assets the last 2 years.  I think the team as developed a lot faster than they had planned.  The first year they sold at the trade deadline and the team go hot and made the playoff.  Last year must have thought they were farther away from being a playoff team since they traded assets that would have been great to have this year.

It will be very telling of the FO based on what they do this trade deadline.  If they are not ready to make a move this year, when will they be ready?

I think this is hugely misunderstood. I don't know what the other ownership regimes they worked under were like, but I think people mischaracterize the Pohalds.

 

Let me start by saying I loathe what the Pohlads stand for in many ways. Since the next generation took over, however, they have made it clear that they are not "baseball people", and say it regularly in front of staff and even fans.

 

They always delegated the responsibility of payroll to Terry Ryan or Billy Smith, who were running the team under the mindset Carl ran the team on, when they were far less profitable. 

 

They continue to delegate all responsibility to their new regime, and that regime says they spend whenever asked on infrastructure and development (I asked this directly of them at a STH meeting).

 

The problem with them is that they don't exude a desire to win to the fans. When the people they delegate to are budget conscious, it makes them look bad, and they have literally zero PR skills as an organization outside of cheesy feel good marketing campaigns.

You mean GREAT advertising campaigns like North Dakota University night? I guess UofM Gophers come every other night!

Carl started out by buying foreclosed properties (mostly farms) during the Great Depression. He continued to buy failed or failing assets and properties, including banks, land, buildings, etc., throughout his lifetime.

 

Note a couple of things:

 

- Though the Pohlad family was valued at $3.6B as late as 2015, Jim is suspected to only have cash in the $1M - $10M range in spite of running the both the Twins and managing the real estate holdings. How would you feel about doling out $100M contracts when you have much less than that?

- The $3.6B value in 2015 appears to be going downward, though I'm not sure how as the economy has been good, so take this with a grain of salt.

 

- The liquid assets in the family that come from the businesses are shared by 20 different people and their families. Jim probably doesn't have the control we think he does. If the Twins go in the red, it affects a lot of people, all in his family.

It would take a lot for the Twins to actually go in the red.

(Also, and this is the worst bit, until recently the Pohlads were the regional bottler for Pepsi. Gross.)

What is bad about being a Pepsi bottler?  I don't get it?

It's not Coke.

On that I agree. 

But the tone of where this discussion has trended is that there is something legally or morally wrong with being a Pepsi bottling company. 

In my experience, pepsi is more likely to be on sale at my local grocery store.

This feels like it was written by the Twins PR department.

 

Until the Twins show that they'll make significant payroll additions, we should correctly assume they won't. This FO refused to add to a playoff caliber team two years, so, until they do, we should assume they won't.

 

My guess is that the Twins do a few minor moves to bring in bullpen help - maybe even taking on a little salary - and losing some prospects in the 15-30 range but nothing bigger than that. I think we'll hear rumors that the Twins are interested/close to making a big move but it won't pan out.

The 2017 team was ok but certainly not playoff caliber, in my opinion. They snuck into a wildcard game and got pounded, and stood little chance of winning a playoff series even if they advanced.

I believe in pushing in the chips when the time is right, and I think that time is now. I don’t think 2017 was the right time to buy expensive rental players. And I believe Falvey and Levine will get multiple players who are going to help this team. Plus, without the luxury of August trades, it raises the chance of more moves happening.