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It's been widely anticipated that MLB teams would uniformly cut spending this offseason – perhaps significantly – in the face of severe economic setbacks. The league reports losing more than $3 billion during the abbreviated 2020 season, and while 2021 may bring us closer to a sense of normalcy ... no one's confident it'll be THAT close.
As things stand now, the expectation is for partial-capacity stadiums, lingering pandemic-related complications, and more reduced revenues. That outlook could well change over the coming four months, but with the offseason officially underway, teams must operate based on what they know.
In the days immediately following the conclusion of the World Series, suspicions of a chilly offseason market were reaffirmed, with a stunning array of team-friendly options declined. Brad Hand, Charlie Morton, and Darren O'Day are among the most head-scratching. Under normal circumstances, each of these guys would be a no-brainer to keep. But as we're seeing, these are no normal circumstances.
The wildest thing to me is that, in the case of Hand, he went through outright waivers. That means any other team could've simply taken on a one-year, $10 million contract for an elite closer, no strings attached. Nobody bit. This isn't just Cleveland's cheapness – although, it is that too. Baseball owners are taking an understandably cautious approach with an ambiguous financial landscape ahead.
I don't necessarily blame them. In a refreshingly candid and open series of quotes shared with La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune, Jim Pohlad laid out the ownership viewpoint well:
How might this "uncertainty discount" play out in practical terms, and how might the Twins specifically be affected? Here are three key threads I see playing out.
1: Many players will end up accepting deals for well below market value, with an eye on guaranteed money.
If it hasn't already, it'll quickly become apparent to the current free agent class (and more importantly their agents) that spending is at a premium this winter, especially when it comes to hard-and-fast commitments. I foresee a lot of guys ultimately forced to accept non-guaranteed or incentive-based deals, for whom that'd normally who never be the case.
In this tough environment, there could be opportunity for front offices. Think about it: If you're the Twins and you offer, say, Jake Odorrizi a multi-year deal that would seem perfectly reasonable under normal market circumstances (three years, $36 million?), does he just jump on it?
Normally he might take a passive approach and see what else the market has to offer. But this year, when he knows that there are many other starting pitchers vying for the same limited funds? And when he knows that only a select few true contenders will be actively spending to win?
If the Twins move on and sign a Marcus Stroman, they're out of the running for him. And that's one club checked off the list. Scales have been tipped. Supply will outweigh demand in this strange offseason.
2: The first couple of months will be very slow, followed by a late flurry in February and March.
Because of the lopsided supply/demand ratio, buyers will hold all the control. Front offices will feel little urgency to address needs in what I expect to be a slow-developing offseason. Especially for this reason: financial parameters figure to grow clearer as the winter progresses.
We have no idea right now whether 25% league-wide stadium capacity in 2021 is a feasible possibility, let alone 50% or more. In February, we'll have a better idea – albeit maybe not a definitive answer. This means patience is not only a luxury, but to some extent a mandate for front offices held to account.
If this eventuality is obvious to us, then it's surely evident to parties on both sides ... which brings me back to the point above. I think there will be serious opportunity to strike fair yet team-friendly deals in the early stretch of the offseason, when adaptive free agents make the most of their situations and avoid the painful saturation to come in January and February.
3: Tensions between the league and union will be further inflamed, and that's bad news for everyone.
Things turned ugly during the league's negotiations to start up a reconfigured COVID season in the early part of the summer. This only underscores a well-known truth: The two sides are very much at odds with the collective bargaining agreement set to expire after next season. Overdue to be addressed are many inequities.
Suffice to say that the cost-slashing we're about to see will not help matters. Free agent big-leaguers who already felt undervalued, and hindered in their earning power, will face devastating market prospects.
In his interview with La Velle, Pohlad said the following, which I think fairly reflects the position of his peers at large: "In a sense there has been, in my view — and I’m not speaking for the players or the union — there has to be some degree of risk sharing here ... Basically the owners bore the entire brunt of the short season. The players got their prorated salary for the games they played in. In terms of lost revenue, they bore no risk to it. But they were cooperative in getting the games started, and that’s a big deal. Going forward, it just comes about as a result of a depressed market that is, in effect, players bearing their share of the risk also.”
This is a reasonable statement on its face, from a strictly operational standpoint. But let's be honest: It's a sentiment that will hit sourly for players who undertook great burden and risk to make this season work. And that disconnect will only serve to foment the tensions brewing as a huge juncture for MLB approaches.
Unlike the first two predictions, there's not some potential Twins-related silver lining here. Even if they wanted to, the well-meaning Pohlads and Falvine Machine could do nothing to prevent a contentious impasse at the highest level, which would existentially threaten the game we love. I feel like we danced close to this line in May and June.
In fact, there's no real takeaway on this one. I'm just nervous. Nervous about this, and a lot of other more important things at the moment. Throw it all into the pot.
Hey, 2020!
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