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Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks was already being speculated upon as a trade candidate, even prior to the team's signing of Madison Bumgarner. Now, the rumors are ramping up, and with good reason: Ray has one remaining season under contract, and figures to make more than $10 million in his last turn at arbitration.
This past season, Ray was above-average but not great, posting a 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 174 innings. In the two years prior, his ERA+ was 134. He is an absolute strikeout machine, with the third-highest K/9 rate among MLB starters since 2017 (trailing only Chris Sale and Max Scherzer), and even during a relative down year in 2019 he still held opponents to a .234 average. He also, incidentally, has plenty of familiarity with Minnesota's new part-time catcher – Alex Avila spent the last two years in Arizona.
To some, Ray wouldn't satisfy the threshold for rotation impact, given that he's been unable to pull everything together and pitch like an ace outside of 2017. But for me, he brings the upside and proven performance to be a transformative addition. There's no doubting his frontline capability.
That argument might be a tougher sell with the other guy I'll mention here. Steven Matz doesn't offer the same clearly visible promise as Ray. In fact, he hasn't been very good since breaking onto the scene with a 3.16 ERA over his first 28 starts for the Mets in 2015 and 2016. But that ability is still in there, and he's only 28, with a fastball from the left side that sits in the mid-90s.
Even with Zack Wheeler gone, the Mets have a more obvious rotation crunch than Arizona. New York has signed two free agent starters, Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello, to join a unit that already features Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergard, and Marcus Stroman. That leaves Matz – set to earn more than $5 million in arbitration coming off an underwhelming season, and two years away from free agency – as the evident odd man out.
It'd be nice if the Twins could pry loose Syndergaard or even deGrom, but the Mets are unlikely to move one of their top dogs as they seem intent on making a push this year. Trading Matz, who currently appears to be their sixth starter, wouldn't inhibit that goal. It would also probably cost Minnesota significantly less in prospect capital than Ray.
On that front, the good news is that New York's front office has plenty of familiarity with Minnesota's system, having scouted it thoroughly during Syndergaard trade talks last July. This could help facilitate a deal.
Ray would be preferable to Matz, but either starter would add a left-hander with legit stuff to a rotation mix that is currently all right-handed with Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Randy Dobnak. And in either case, it's pretty clear the Twins could make a trade happen tomorrow if they're motivated.
And at this point... they should be motivated.
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