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The Twins bullied their way to 101 wins behind an MLB-record 307 home runs in 2019. To hit 307 blasts, one would think you need multiple 40-homer contributors. The Twins had just one. Nelson Cruz was tied for seventh in baseball with 41, and Max Kepler was the next closest with 36 (T-18th in MLB).
As great as Cruz was, the 2019 Twins succeeded equally because of lineup depth. They had an MLB-record *eight* players hit 20 or more home runs. Famously, the Twins had a staggering *five* players hit more than 30. The Twins led baseball with *nine* players posting an average or better OPS in at least 300 plate appearances.
When Luis Arraez burst onto the scene, Jonathan Schoop assumed a bench role and helped the Twins mash lefties (.917 OPS) all year. Marwin González posted a respectable .736 OPS (95 OPS+) and hit 15 homers of his own.
Ehire Adrianza had a career year off the bench, hitting .272/.349/.416 with 16 extra-base hits in 202 at-bats. Mitch Garver, Jason Castro and Willians Astudillo set the record for the most home runs by a team's catching group in baseball history (44).
The Twins had 15 pitchers throw at least 20 innings with an ERA at or below league average. Only the Rays had more (16).
The baseball world took notice of the Twins and their propensity to build around depth. After signing Josh Donaldson, no team had a deeper lineup according to Steamer projections.
The Twins finished an otherwise disappointing offensive campaign with eight players posting at least a league average OPS in 40 or more plate appearances. That tied them with the White Sox and Athletics for fourth most in the American League. The pitching staff was the deepest in baseball.
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Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made it clear: they see the season as a war of attrition. Part of their philosophy is of course due to personnel. Byron Buxton and Josh Donaldson, the two best all-around players on the team, require more injury insurance than most star players.
Signing Andrelton Simmons was a calculated depth move. It allowed the Twins to push Luis Arraez into the Marwin role, one Arraez is way too qualified for. That’s the point, though. They prioritize placing overqualified players into reduced roles. That creates a depth advantage over 162 games.
So far in 2021, the depth hasn't produced a lick. Jake Cave, a previously valuable fourth outfielder, is 6-for-49 (.122). Ryan Jeffers is 5-for-28 (.179) with 14 strikeouts. Brent Rooker is 2-for-21 (.095) with 11 strikeouts and one walk. Alex Colomé, part of a seemingly deep bullpen, has struggled, to say the least. Matt Shoemaker and J.A. Happ have combined for a 5.09 ERA in 23 innings. Not only is the depth not contributing, the group is massively hurting the team as they work through injuries and roster adversity.
It’s true that the season is long. It’s true that depth has a way of showing up later in the summer, when teams are really fighting for innings and quality bats. That will be especially true after the shortened 2020 season.
It’s still possible, if not likely that the Twins will end up getting production from the fringes of the roster, but they’ll continue to struggle mightily if they don’t.
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