Week in Review: Pitching Plunge

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/4 through Sun, 7/10
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 48-40)
Run Differential Last Week: +6 (Overall: +50)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 83 | MIN 6, CWS 3: Buxton, Arraez Key 10th-Inning Win
Game 84 | MIN 8, CWS 2: Offense Bashes 5 Homers in Blowout
Game 85 | CWS 9, MIN 8: Twins Walked Off in Wild Series Finale
Game 86 | TEX 6, MIN 5: 6-Run 5th Inning Sinks Twins in Texas
Game 87 | TEX 9, MIN 7: Arms Can't Back Up Offensive Flurry
Game 88 | MIN 6, TEX 5: Twins Finally Squeak Out a Close One

NEWS & NOTES

It seemed noteworthy when the Twins decided to bring Josh Winder on their latest road trip as a member of the taxi squad, bypassing his scheduled start for the Saints. Sure enough, Winder stepped in to start against the White Sox on Tuesday with Chris Archer going on the injured list.

Archer's ailment was described as "left hip tightness" but it sounds like mostly a maintenance break for the oft-injured starter. He figures to return just after the All-Star break.

Elsewhere on the pitching staff, Trevor Megill was activated from IL and swapped in for Juan Minaya, who cleared waivers and was outrighted to St. Paul. Minaya follows Tyler Thornburg, who did the same to make room for Minaya just days earlier. The bullpen continues to be a revolving door as fans impatiently await a more impactful deadline addition.

Last Monday, Miguel Sanó officially kicked off a rehab stint in Florida as he progresses toward a return from knee surgery. Sanó launched a pair of home runs on Saturday night for the FCL Twins – a promising sign even if against rookie-league competition. He's probably a couple of weeks away from returning to the Twins, and it'll be interesting to see how they work him back into the mix with a suddenly crowded (and highly productive) offensive group.

HIGHLIGHTS

The offense was clicking all week, scoring five or more runs in all six games thanks to a power-hitting onslaught that included 15 home runs and 12 doubles among 63 total hits. Plenty of contributors got in on the action, with these standout performances leading the way:

• Jorge Polanco launched three home runs and drove in six. He's slugging .600 with five bombs in 11 games since coming off the injured list. Safe to say his back his feeling better. Polanco is also showing a keen eye at the plate, with seven walks drawn in 28 plate appearances over the past week.
• Luis Arraez kept on plugging away, finishing 10-for-25 (.400) even with an 0-fer in Sunday's series finale against the Rangers. His batting average continues to hover around the .350 mark, leading all of baseball. He was named an All-Star reserve on Monday alongside Byron Buxton.
• Max Kepler, now routinely appearing in the cleanup spot against right-handed pitchers, went 8-for-25 with a home run. Batting .244, Kepler is characteristically being suppressed by a low BABIP (albeit not as bad as in many years past), but he's offsetting it somewhat with much improved patience – his 13.2% BB rate is a career-high and at the high end of all MLB hitters – fueling a .350 on-base percentage. 
• José Miranda continues to prove he belongs in the majors, and now looks more locked in than ever. He went 6-for-18 with two homers and seven RBIs, delivering multiple big hits in key spots. He struck out only once all week and has a 5-to-4 K/BB ratio in his past 20 contests, reflecting the improved discipline that's helped him turn around his offensive game. 

The Twins continue to solidify their elite standing as an offensive unit, with a team OPS+ ranking second in baseball behind only the Yankees. It's fitting, then, that their two All-Stars are the primary catalysts in the lineup – Buxton with his spectacular clutch power and Arraez with his unrivaled on-base skills and consistency. Seeing them receive this honor for the first time made for a special moment, especially because both players are so incredibly likable.

LOWLIGHTS

With all those runs coming across the plate, the offense certainly deserved better than a 3-3 week. Unfortunately, a rapidly unraveling pitching staff simply was not up to the task.

The bullpen was a mess, coughing up leads repeatedly. That's nothing new, although Jhoan Duran being part of those woes rather than the exception was an unwelcome twist. He took the loss on Saturday night, yielding two runs on three hits and a walk in the eighth inning. He then put Sunday's win at risk, surrendering a (Gilberto Celestino-aided) home run to cut Minnesota's lead to one. 

Perhaps even more concerning than the bullpen's continued failures, which the Twins have managed to overcome in maintaining a sizable division lead, is the downturn of the rotation. Previously a source of stability, starters are beginning to see their fortunes shift for the worse.

In some cases, this was more or less expected. Devin Smeltzer was clearly over-performing in his first several turns, and now his luck is catching up with a major HR regression. On Saturday he was taken deep three times for a second consecutive start. 

Joe Ryan, too, has had the long balls catch up to him in recent weeks. The fly ball pitcher gave up only three home runs in his first eight starts, but has allowed five in his past five starts, including a game-tying two-run blast by Eloy Jimenez in a Wednesday loss that saw Ryan and the relief corps cough up FIVE leads.

But the leading concern in the rotation has to be Sonny Gray, who simply hasn't looked right since returning from a groin injury in mid-June. In five starts since coming back, he has pitched into the sixth inning only once, while barely resembling the dominating force that powered through the first two months. 

In 25 ⅔ innings since the latest IL stint, Gray has notched only 15 strikeouts – including zero on Friday night against the Rangers. This inability to limit contact is leading to longer at-bats, more hits, and a proneness to blow-up innings like the fifth on Friday, where he combined with Caleb Thielbar to turn a 3-0 lead into a 6-3 deficit. 

The Twins gave up one of their best young arms in Chase Petty (who's looking quite good in A-ball, as it happens) on the premise that Gray would bring a veteran edge to this rotation and serve as a relative workhorse among a bunch of young or embattled starters who – for various reasons – can't often be expected to go more than five or six innings. Gray looked like he was on his way to fulfilling that promise early on, but the recent results have been troubling and the outing at Arlington ranks as perhaps his worst of the season. 

They need him to step up. If indeed the groin is still playing some role in his diminished output, perhaps the All-Star break comes at a good time for him.

TRENDING STORYLINE

With one week to go until said break, the Twins have a chance to put the pedal to the metal a bit. They close out the first half with a six-game homestand against a pair of reasonably formidable opponents: the first-place Brewers and the ever-lurking White Sox. 

A strong week would send them into the midsummer hiatus with positive vibes and maybe a little more comfort. If so inclined, the Twins have an opportunity right now to take a step back from their typical "workload management" leanings. With the day off on Monday, followed by a five-day All-Star break next week, and then two days off the following week, Minnesota will have nearly as day off (eight) as on (10) in the next 18.

It's a chance to push a little harder with guys like Buxton, and some of starters and relievers they've been trying to taking it easy on. And that comes at an opportune time as the Twins look to separate themselves a bit more in the division while the trade deadline looms.

LOOKING AHEAD

Six games, six right-handed pitchers on the docket – including one of the best in the biz in Corbin Burnes. To keep the offense rolling, the Twins will likely need left-handed bats like Arraez, Kepler, and Alex Kirilloff to play big roles.

TUESDAY, 7/12: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Jason Alexander v. RHP Josh Winder
WEDNESDAY, 7/13: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Corbin Burnes v. RHP Joe Ryan
THURSDAY, 7/14: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Johnny Cueto v. RHP Sonny Gray
FRIDAY, 7/15: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Michael Kopech v. LHP Devin Smeltzer
SATURDAY, 7/16: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Dylan Bundy
SUNDAY, 7/17: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Cease v. RHP Josh Winder