Week in Review: Capitalizing on Cushy Competition

  "I sort of understood it, given that the Twins were a bit worn in the bullpen".....I am SO pumped that this team has managed to put itself in first place.  Just let me vent about a couple things.  At some point, Baldelli and their analytics-driven approach will need to let starters throw more than 75-80 pitches or they're literally going to kill their bullpen.   And, I get the need to keep Buxton healthy, but this two games played and then being completely unavailable on the third is just baffling to me.  He's a 27-year old freak of an athlete.  I think we can do better than that and still keep him healthy.

Nice write up, Nick!

I think a lot of us fans expect (hope ) that the team shifts Urshela to first base, perhaps in a righty-lefty platoon with Arraez, and calls up Lewis to play third most days, filling in for Correa as needed.

Gio moves back to third when Royce spells Carlos at shortstop; Luis plays first in that scenario, and could DH when Urshela plays first. Gotta keep that pure hitter in the lineup somehow!

1 hour ago, HerbieFan said:

  And, I get the need to keep Buxton healthy, but this two games played and then being completely unavailable on the third is just baffling to me.  He's a 27-year old freak of an athlete.  I think we can do better than that and still keep him healthy.

Well, something must be up with Buxton. Over his last 10 games he's 4 for 34, and his batting average has plummeted from .290 to .228, and how OPS is down almost 200 points. Something isn't right.

Buxton's slump is pretty major actually. Hopefully he will be snapping out of it soon. While 'worry' when the team has picked him up with a lot of wins, is not critical, he is our go-to guy and we need his bat. This is his worse stretch in a long time.  At least he is getting on base. Today's win was pretty awesome. Its rare to make that kind of comeback.

I'm only worried that Buxton's Knee and/or hip aren't right. If so, it stinks, but give him some time to recover on IL.

When healthy Buxton will be electric again (same as it ever was... same as it ever.....was)

Anybody remember a while back when Royals pitching looked like it had a whole lotta upside and just owned the Twins?  With a quarter of the season in the bag, that staff is now 15th in the AL in R, ER, ERA  and SO, and 14th in H and BB.  We caught them at the right time.

With so many players contributing, it's been easy to overlook Max Kepler, who's been a very steady force and worthy of recognition. This past week Max has gone 6-for-16 (.375) with 5 walks, 5 runs, and 3 RBI. His season average is up to .260 and he's looking more and more like the Max Kepler we all know and love. His re-emergence as a solid hitter in the middle of this lineup is key, and he's been virtually injury-free and is one of just a couple guys out there playing every day.

53 minutes ago, bighat said:

With so many players contributing, it's been easy to overlook Max Kepler, who's been a very steady force and worthy of recognition. This past week Max has gone 6-for-16 (.375) with 5 walks, 5 runs, and 3 RBI. His season average is up to .260 and he's looking more and more like the Max Kepler we all know and love. His re-emergence as a solid hitter in the middle of this lineup is key, and he's been virtually injury-free and is one of just a couple guys out there playing every day.

 

Twins need Kepler to hit for sure.  Yesterday, before the 8th inning, Kepler had ruined the two best chances the Twins had of scoring, dribbling the ball down the 3b line twice.  Redemption came sweet.

If you think back, this is the 3rd Division team the Twins have pantsed in the 8th inning.  First Chicago on the Anderson/Abreu snowball fight, then Detroit on the casual flip into LF by their catcher as two Twins stood on 3b, and now the KC collapse with a 6-run lead.

Rather be lucky than good.  So far, Twins have been lucky against the ones they need to beat.

It’s great to see the Twins having fun & regaining their confidence in their ability to play and win.  They are winning as a team. I congratulate the team on a great job well done! 

10 hours ago, Monkeypaws said:

Well, something must be up with Buxton. Over his last 10 games he's 4 for 34, and his batting average has plummeted from .290 to .228, and how OPS is down almost 200 points. Something isn't right.

I know! Maybe he's not getting enough playing time! We might need to send him down to St. Paul so he can get regular AB's with Lewis!

Chill! That's sarcasm for those who haven't had their morning coffee yet, or have just spilled their morning joe down their jammie front.

15 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

At some point, Baldelli and their analytics-driven approach will need to let starters throw more than 75-80 pitches or they're literally going to kill their bullpen. 

Friend, you need to watch some baseball played by other teams as well. No one is regularly letting their starters throw that many pitches so far this year. The average number of innings for starting pitchers this year is less than 5. You can have problems with that, but it's not a Rocco thing, it's an everyone thing. Hell, last year the Twins were one of the leaders in terms of innings pitched by starters across all of MLB. This is the dumbest complaint people keep trotting out, because it's just plainly not true about the Twins. They are average to above-average in how long their starters go.

This time last year - the season was over and depressing any way you looked at it.  Abysmal performance and little confidence in any discernable direction contributed to what was a hopeless low of lows. (IMHO)  

Fast-Forward to 2022:  Beyond the inherent excitement that comes with simply being if first place as summer starts, this edition of the Twins is a wildly interesting (and entertaining) intersection of prime-level superstars, new acquisitions, core players and exciting prospects all contributing to what feels like a team with a compelling trajectory.

If all those storylines aren't enough - it now appears that the White Sox are ready to join the race and a dogfight for the division crown...sign me up!

Last - FWIW, hot rookies typically enjoy a shelf-life of surprising production before the league adjusts.  Perhaps 'hiding' Lewis in AAA for a bit longer extends the tail end of any honeymoon period to a point in the season where his extra juice will be even more important.  We'll find out soon enough (yet another reason this season is among the most engaging I can remember).   

28 minutes ago, JDubs said:

Friend, you need to watch some baseball played by other teams as well. No one is regularly letting their starters throw that many pitches so far this year. The average number of innings for starting pitchers this year is less than 5. You can have problems with that, but it's not a Rocco thing, it's an everyone thing. Hell, last year the Twins were one of the leaders in terms of innings pitched by starters across all of MLB. This is the dumbest complaint people keep trotting out, because it's just plainly not true about the Twins. They are average to above-average in how long their starters go.

Teams that are leaders do not copy other teams.  Extending starters is not a new idea and it is not a bad idea. 

What will happen to Vallimont - his stats this year are terrible.  It was a good time to drop him from the 40, but weak teams could still see that he might have some real upside - its not like Rule V.  

This is my favorite article every week. Just because I'm unable to listen to every game. It gives a good  breakdown the past week on whose hot and low and what we should complain about or excited for. 

32 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

What will happen to Vallimont - his stats this year are terrible.  It was a good time to drop him from the 40, but weak teams could still see that he might have some real upside - its not like Rule V.  

I don't know if he's really worth worrying about... maybe he moves to the bullpen and turns things around, but he's more valuable off the 40 man roster than on it.

40 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

What will happen to Vallimont - his stats this year are terrible.  It was a good time to drop him from the 40, but weak teams could still see that he might have some real upside - its not like Rule V.  

Add Drew Strotman to the list here. Absolutely horrible. 

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They have the luxury of a continuing soft patch in the schedule, which might give them leeway in making the sacrifices required to keep Lewis' bat in the minors. I wonder if the goal is to have him dialed and ready to step in for good around the start of June, when the competition starts getting a whole lot tougher and they'll want to bring everything they've got.

Hopefully not until after the Saints series in Des Moines, I already have tickets bought for two games that week!

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Teams that are leaders do not copy other teams.  Extending starters is not a new idea and it is not a bad idea. 

They already do that! That's the point! They're in the upper-half of innings pitched by starters! It's not currently 1975!

Are the Twins, right now, one of the best 2 or 3 teams in all of MLB? No. Are they in the top 4-6 with room to continue to improve? Yep. You never apologize for winning, even if it's against lesser teams. It means you're doing what you're supposed to be doing. The Astro series was disappointing as hell, but doesn't define the Twins now, or in the future. 

I like what I've seen and feel there is room for improvement for what's on hand. 

The Lewis situation is so debatable, and we all have. To do so is pointless at this point. If he had begun this season hitting in the .270's with decent production at AAA and done something similar with the Twins, the yells would have been less. But he is a Golden Child. And I would have pursued the "Gordon/Arraez" method of ML learning and kept him. He's special. But after 1 great month at AAA and 11 great games at the ML level, after 2yrs of non game play, the FO made their decision. He's not exactly done. He'll be back, and probably to stay, and probably soon. 

Despite some great moves, the Paddack one, and his loss, hurts for 2022. Sorry, but you don't win them all. I'm not convinced that Pagan won't actually get better and be an important part of 2022. There is a real chance Paddack is part of the 2nd half of 2023 and 2024. And who knows, maybe an extension will be in order. Time will tell. But despite my ambalivent nature to the trade, I understand the scope of the move and it's potential.

There is so much good going on, I hesitate to focus on the bad.

A healthy Winder could be major for the 2nd half. Archer FINALLY gaining strength/consistency could be huge. And even if Pagan's recent adjustment on his new splitter makes him important and ready to rock, he and Duran could still use ONE MORE ARM if this team remains in contention come July.

Unless you can pull of a trade, possibly short term, maybe long term and more expensive, I'm still not sure you get better than Ryan, Gray and Ober for your 1st 3. And I KNOW I'll get heat for this, but if Gray is Gray, and if Ryan and Ober JUST do what they've done in 2021 and 2022 thus far, and even if they don't improve, you've still got a nice 3 to front the rotation. And then an improving Winder and Archer and hopefully a solid Bundy, who can you trade for that will make a major difference? I mean, without giving up too much. If Archer gains endurance and confidence again in his stuff, he could supplant Ober as the #3. I've read the idea of a cheap deal for someone like Evoldi as an option, despite a rough start to his 2022. That MIGHT be a massive move if he gets right and doesn't cost too much. But I have to say again, if Archer "gets right" the next 30 days, and we can add at least ONE good BP arm in July, I'm not so sure the pitching isn't going to be solid for the last half.