Melissa

In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 
3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7
Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million.  
Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 
2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1
Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. 
Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 
1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9
FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. 
Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. 

Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. 

Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

Projected Starter: Christian Vázquez
Likely Backup: Ryan Jeffers
Depth: Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner, Chance Sisco
Prospects: Chris Williams, Noah Cardenas
THE GOOD
Acquiring a veteran catcher was a top priority for the Twins this offseason, and they got their guy, signing Vázquez to three-year, $30 million deal as arguably the second-best free agent at the position. The 32-year-old could hardly be described as a star, but that's not what the Twins were seeking: they wanted stability following a season where they enjoyed very little of it behind the plate.
Vázquez has had a few standout seasons, highlighted by a 2019 campaign where he slashed .276/.320/.477 with 23 home runs for Boston, but the Twins would be perfectly content with a repeat of 2022: average offense (99 OPS+) and steady defense combined with reliable availability. 
The Twins continue to believe in Jeffers as their future behind the plate, but the presence of Vázquez means they don't need to entirely plan around that scenario in the short term, which is probably wise given how things have gone for Jeffers over the past two seasons. 
While the righty-swinging Vázquez doesn't provide a platoon advantage, he's much more capable against right-handed pitchers and should allow the Twins to play Jeffers more to his strength against lefties, against whom he's slashed .263/.344/.450 in his career. 
Both are considered very solid receivers who pitchers like to work with, giving the Twins a more consistent level of quality behind the plate after Gary Sánchez (still unsigned) caught 714 innings mostly out of necessity last season.
THE BAD
The Twins really need to hope Vázquez can maintain his record of staying healthy, because an injury could put the Twins right back into a familiar spot of grasping for answers behind the plate.
Their depth was so sparse last year that when Jeffers went down for an extended period, they were forced to run out Caleb Hamilton for a few games and eventually acquired no-hit veteran Sany León from Cleveland's Triple-A team. He became more or less the primary starter.
Minnesota has built out its experienced upper-level depth a bit with Wolters, Greiner, and Cisco, but those three combined to play four games in the majors last year. Meanwhile, there's no position in the Twins organization with less in the way of immediate pipeline impact. As discussed in this year's top prospect recap, catcher continues to be an area of extreme scarcity in this system.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The front office desperately needed to strengthen the catcher position this past offseason, and while they did, it could still hardly be described as a strength. Although I guess that depends on your assessment of Jeffers. 
In some eyes, he could be viewed as one of the best backup catchers in the game – a still-developing impact starter who now has the luxury of coming along slowly with an established vet splitting time. If both guys stay healthy and Jeffers takes that next step, the Twins will have a catching setup that is the envy of the league. 
The thing is, it's hard to count on that. Jeffers has seen his OPS drop from .791 in a strong rookie campaign to .670 in 2021 to .648 last year, and has struggled to stay healthy. You don't have to squint to see the potential of a two-way asset – I was reminded of his raw power while watching him repeatedly hit absolute tanks in BP last week – but the 25-year-old is already inching toward arbitration without even a 1-WAR season to his credit.
Losing either of their top two backstops would force the Twins to delve into their murky depth, and while Vázquez has thankfully been pretty durable in the past, he also turns 33 this season.

Coming into spring training, it seemed that Trevor Larnach might serve as the Twins most regular designated hitter. With Joey Gallo looking to handle left field, Alex Kirilloff slated for first base, and Max Kepler still on the team, that was a fair thought. Things got murky when Donovan Solano was added to the mix. Kyle Farmer may take the first crack, but there will still be at-bats to go around.

Is it crazy to give some of them to Canadian prospect Edouard Julien?

Coming off an excellent season for Double-A Wichita, Julien went to the Arizona Fall League and continued to rake. He posted a .931 OPS across 113 games in the Texas League, and his 1.248 OPS during 21 Fall League games went on to beat it. Since being lured away from Auburn, and the Twins had to entice him plenty, all he has done is hit.
That is a good thing for Julien because he leaves plenty to be desired in the field. Mainly playing second base, he’d need an injury to starter Jorge Polanco for an opportunity to open. Even then, Solano, Farmer, or the now-injured Nick Gordon could stand between him and that chance. If his bat is going to carry, though, then maybe that is all Minnesota needs to play.

Rocco Baldelli’s bench should consist of backup catcher Ryan Jeffers, Farmer, Solano, and a healthy Gordon. That group gives the manager plenty of flexibility. Should Gordon miss Opening Day due to his high ankle sprain, the spot may need to be taken by an outfielder. Neither Solano nor Farmer is an ideal fit on the grass, and Gordon has all but transitioned to being one. If there is a way for the final spot to be somewhat position-less (or multi-positional), then Julien’s spring isn’t slowing his chances.

Prospects aren’t expected to skip Triple-A entirely, and it usually happens with top-tier types such as Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, or Jose Berrios. Still, with Julien’s game being somewhat one-sided, he may need less refinement than those in a traditional scenario.
The power has already played this spring with the Twins, and Julien can further substantiate his results by showing well for Team Canada during the World Baseball Classic. As a high on-base guy, his 8/1 K/BB this spring seems abnormal, but we’re also dealing with a tiny sample size. When the dust settles, it’s probably too insignificant to extrapolate much from the results, but that won’t discourage Julien from putting his best foot forward.

It remains unlikely that there is an avenue for Julien to break camp with the Twins and head to Kansas City for Opening Day, but plenty of crazier additions to the 26-man roster have worked their way out. Julien has already been added to the 40-man roster and wouldn't need any back-of-the-napkin gymnastics to find his way into a big-league clubhouse.

Even if it doesn’t happen to start the year, betting against Julien in 2023 seems unwise. He’ll be right down the street in St. Paul, and you’d probably be best served to get your tickets early if you want to see him there. A strong start at Triple-A could force Minnesota’s decision-making process in a hurry.

At some point, the Twins will need to decide how much the hit tool can carry Julien, and if it’s enough to let him do nothing more than that in their lineup, then he’ll find a great position as a consistent designated hitter this year.

It encourages us to give into our inherent bias and forget the things that really matter. There isn’t a lot of drama in “this guy is on the 40-man roster” and “this guy doesn’t have options.” But those are the things that matter, not giving up a grand slam on March third. (We’ll get back to that.)
So your best bet for deciphering a roster battle is to start with your assumptions before spring training started, when you were soberly and objectively evaluating the probable 26-man roster. And when I did that (call it version 0.0), here’s what it looked like.
(Green means pretty much locked in. Yellow means I think I know? Red means I don’t know.)
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Larnach   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan Bench OF Taylor   RP Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Moran Bench  Gordon   RP Megill Let’s walk through the changes that are and are not happening, in order of greatest impact.
Donovan Solano is knocking out one of the position players.
When the Twins signed Donovan Solano a major league contract two weeks ago, it likely meant one of the position players who has options was doomed. There aren’t that many: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers is a catcher, so he’s safe. We haven’t seen Kirilloff in a game yet, but he’s supposedly on track to return early.
Trevor Larnach was scratched from the lineup with a lower body injury last week but is supposed to play left field on Tuesday. But if everyone is healthy he would probably be the odd man out. So we’ll leave him off the roster, and put Kirilloff in yellow to reflect the dual challenges of getting healthy and beating out both Larnach for the last spot.
Long relief appears to be a priority.
It’s one thing for Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to say he wants to have a long reliever available for most games this season. It’s another to see the organization align to make that wish a reality. We’re seeing the latter.
Both Baldelli and Derek Falvey have discussed a group of pitcher that could be available in long relief. This is different than designating a long reliever, like the Twins tried to do with Randy Dobnak two years ago. This means having a pool of arms available so if the long reliever  throws 50-70 pitches – or maybe even 30-50 - they can be swapped out with a different option from St Paul for the next game.
This gets around a couple of challenges to the strategy. It allows a long reliever to pitch in back-to-back games if necessary. And it limits the impact of last year’s new MLB rule limiting each pitcher to just five back-and-forths to the minors. With more arms you have more options.
And the Twins have more arms. Cole Sands and Brent Headrick probably have the inside track because they are on the 40-man roster. Old friends Randy Dobnak and Aaron Sanchez might also be options, though that would require a further roster move. Josh Winder and Ronny Henriquez have also been mentioned by Falvey as options, though both are dealing with potential arm health issues in camp.
So we’ll adjust the roster by giving one spot to a long reliever, which crowds the other three guys into two spots. I’m also going to break my rule about overreacting to game performances, and add Emilio Pagan to that group, just because the grand slam he gave up on Thursday gave me a little PTSD.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there might be some injuries
It’s early in camp, so I’m not going to adjust the any of the statuses, but we’re all keeping an eye on when we next see Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Nick Gordon in a game. There is no indication that they won’t all be ready by Opening Day, so, again, no changes to the chart. But baseball is a “show me” game, and the color on those spots could change in a couple more weeks if we’re not shown something soon. If any of them don’t happen, Larnach might be back on the roster.
So here’s the new chart.
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Solano   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan/Moran Bench OF Taylor   RP Moran/Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Alcala/Megill Bench  Gordon   LR Sands/Headrick We'll have plenty more chances to overreact before I attack this again. Any new injury is that much closer to Opening Day, as is every game in which one of the regulars doesn't appear. We'll may see some big or clutch performances by Twins players playing in the World Baseball Classis, and their absence will absolutely create opportunities for other players trying to wedge their way onto the roster. 
So if you're disappointed that there isn't more change, stay tuned. The temptation to overreact and embrace drama only gets more heated going forward. 

Winning a Most Valuable Player award is the pinnacle of individual achievement in baseball and most any other sport. It's the honor of a lifetime for athletes, placing their names alongside true greats in the history books while celebrating an unparalleled contribution to winning.
Beyond all that, Byron Buxton is uniquely incentivized to prove deserving of this particular accolade. His contract structure with the Twins is such that Buxton will get an extra $8 million for winning MVP, adding more than 50% on top of his $15 million base salary. (He receives significant bonuses for finishing anywhere in the top 10, but that's obviously the biggest.)
Even with their payroll already stretched to a record high, the Minnesota Twins would be more than happy to pay out those extra millions, given what it would entail for the team. The trouble, of course, is that Buxton has generally come nowhere near making enough plate appearances to have a viable shot. 
 
The superstar talent presents a tough balancing act for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins: How best to utilize him in a way that gets him on the field enough to put himself in the MVP conversation, while also managing his workload to minimize injury risk and keep him strong through the end of the year?
Last season, the team was essentially forced into the position of trying to navigate this situation on the fly due to an early knee injury, which severely limited his availability. This year, they can aim to avoid the same outcome by planning around a playing time model that maximizes Buxton's impact while taking it relatively easy on his body.
For an example of how this might shake out, we need only look back to 2009 when Joe Mauer put forth the last MVP season by a Twins player.
Joe Mauer and the 70-15-15 Model
One of the most interesting things about Mauer's MVP season is that he missed the entire first month, making his season debut on May 1st. (And, unforgettably, homering in his very first at-bat.)
In the spring, Mauer dealt with an inflamed sacroiliac joint – which sits at the base of the spine – and it kept him out of action for nearly four weeks. Once he returned, he was able to play almost every day, making 109 starts at catcher and 28 at designated hitter on the way to accruing 606 plate appearances – plenty to establish him as the unanimous choice for MVP. 
 
Mauer's dispersal of games spent at catcher, DH, or not playing shook out roughly like this:
Catcher: 70% DH: 15% Off Days: 15% The hope, obviously, is that Buxton will not have to miss a month of the season this year. But Mauer's example shows how the Twins can mix in ample rest days and still get Buck to the number of plate appearances required for legitimate MVP consideration (and to trigger his contractual PA bonuses, which hit at 502, 533, 567, 600 and 625). Planning around this model would essentially mean giving Buxton one day off and one day at DH each week.
The comparison between these two is a fitting one to me for a couple of key reasons:
Like Mauer, Buxton derives a huge portion of his value from playing excellent defense at one of the most premium positions on the field.  In 2009, the Twins were comfortable giving Mauer semi-frequent days at DH and negating that part of his value because they had a backup they were very comfortable with in Mike Redmond. This year, the addition of Gold Glover Michael A. Taylor as Buxton's top backup in center provides a similar luxury.  
While Buxton is ostensibly healthy at this juncture, the team's conservative approach to moving him along this spring signals a cautionary mindset geared toward prevention. The 70-15-15 model as a guiding principle feels like the sweet spot to me.
How Are the Twins Envisioning Buxton's Usage?
When I was in camp last week, I took the opportunity to ask Baldelli straight-up if he had a ratio in mind for Buxton's time spent at center field versus designated hitter this year. In 2022, 52 of Buck's 86 starts came in center field compared to 34 at DH, equating to a 60-40 balance clearly driven more by necessity than preference.
Unsurprisingly, the Twins manager – notoriously coy about revealing his future plans – was noncommittal in response, describing it as "probably at this point still an unanswerable question."
"I would say, we’d play Buck — and I mean it — we’d play him in center field for 162 games if we could do that," Baldelli said. "What he’s going to need as the season goes on, nobody knows the answer to that. So we’re going to react to whatever he needs, and we’ll give him that."
Not the most fulfilling answer, but I guess I can't blame Rocco for not wanting to get specific, especially with the season still weeks away and Buxton still yet to make his spring debut. It's all very theoretical at this point.
At the same time, this is something the team needs to be very thoughtful and strategic about. While many sports fans may loathe the term "load management," it's a paramount aspect of handling Buxton properly. In an interview with MLB Network Radio later in the week, general manager Thad Levine was a bit more open about acknowledging this reality.
"What’d we try to do this offseason, to try to enhance his ability to stay on the field is, I think we really tried to build out our depth," Levine explained. "Going out and getting guys like Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, two additional players in addition to Max Kepler  ... who could all play some center field, give Byron some opportunities to contribute as a DH, something that I think Rocco really believes can really extend his plate appearances over the course of the season."
You don't say?
 
Levine continued: "The reality was unfortunately he sustained an injury very early last season, ended up playing with it most of the year until effectively he couldn’t anymore. We’re hopeful we can avoid that early-season injury, we’re hopeful that we can sort of insulate him by having some really excellent-caliber defensive players out there who can allow him to DH a little bit more without a known drop-off in our lineup."
While Baldelli might dream about playing Buxton for 162 games in center field, it's not realistic and would frankly be an irresponsible thing to attempt, in light of his history. Given his druthers, I have no doubt Buck would push to do exactly that, but it's incumbent upon the manager and front office to be smart and look at the big picture, even if Buxton is feeling good early in the season. 
As Mauer's precedent shows, there's a way to do it and still put the 29-year-old in good a position to earn his payday and lead the team to glory.

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
I am Carlos’s bamboo ankle.
Yes, the Twins lost the second-most days to injury in the 2022 season, but that isn’t the whole truth. As a skeptic or a naysayer may remind you, players like Jhon Romero and Randy Dobnak led the team in days lost. However, the more significant issue was their lack of health down the stretch.
Somehow, the Twins still had a share of first place on September 4. No matter how they got there, they could win the AL Central—if they could keep pace with Cleveland. There were eight crucial games down the stretch against Cleveland, and the Twins won only one.
I am Alex’s shortened ulna.
Some days are the sort of day where the sun only comes up to humiliate you. In those eight games against Cleveland, the depleted Twins were without Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler (he did start two games but was on a broken foot), Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, and Miguel Sano.
On aggregate, the lineup looked like this, more or less, presented with games started during that stretch, 2022 fWAR per 550 plate appearances, and 2022 OPS, for those of you who are statistically inclined:
2B) Luis Arraez (7, 2.9 fWAR, .795 OPS)
SS) Carlos Correa (8, 4.1, .834)
1B) Jose Miranda (8, 1.3, .751)
LF) Nick Gordon (7, 1.9, .743)
3B) Gio Urshela (8, 2.4, .767)
DH) Gary Sanchez (5, 1.5, .659)
RF) Jake Cave (7, 1.6, .644)
CF) Gilberto Celestino (5, 0.0, .615)
C) Sandy Leon (4, -2.5, .502)
Starter fWAR: 13.1; OPS: .701
Bench:
Matt Wallner (4, 0.8, .709)
Kyle Garlick (2, 0.3, .717)
Mark Contreras (2, -0.9, .441)
Jermaine Palacios (2, -6.4, .413)
Total fWAR: 6.9; OPS: .661
As mentioned, Kepler also started two games, and even Billy Hamilton got a start during that stretch. Sticking feathers up your butt does not make you a chicken, though. That group is not a winning team, nor is it even a treading-water team.
It is unreasonable to believe any team will play at a 90-win pace with six Opening Day starters and two top reserves on the IL. But fans can expect at least a fight. Club decision-makers should, too.
I am Trevor’s herniated core.
Since then, the front office has traded for Kyle Farmer and Michael A. Taylor, who started at shortstop and centerfield, respectively, for poor teams last year. They signed 2020 Silver Slugger second baseman Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Joey Gallo and Christian Vazquez join the squad with a mostly healthy injury history.
These additions should help—in theory. If the exact string of injuries were to occur again, the lineup could look something like this in 2023 (presented with 2023 fWAR per 550 plate appearances and OPS, projected by FanGraphs ATC):
1B) Miranda (2.5 fWAR, .743 OPS)
2B) Solano (1.5, .711)
3B) Farmer (1.6, .676)
SS) Correa (4.4, .811)
LF) Gordon (1.8, .719)
CF) Taylor (1.8, .660)
RF) Gallo (2.0, .732)
C) Vazquez (2.6, .671)
DH Wallner (-1.0, .669) 
Starter projected fWAR: 17.0; OPS: .710    
Bench:
C) Tony Wolters* (0.0, .538)
UT) Willi Castro* (2.6, .648)
OF) Celestino (0.0, .642)
IF) Edouard Julien* (2.3, .698)**
Total projected fWAR: 21.9; OPS: .686
* denotes not on the 40-man roster
** Julien’s ATC projections were awful due to a comically heavy hit to his defensive metrics, so ZiPS was used here
Other players who could be plugged in here include Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Elliot Soto, Kyle Garlick, Tyler White, and the rest of the veteran catchers. Some noticeable beneficial changes emerge here.
Wallner, Gallo, and Vazquez effectively replace Cave, Sanchez, and Leon as bats in the lineup. Taylor moves Celestino to a reserve role. The losses of Arraez and Urshela hurt, but Solano and Wallner aren’t awful replacements.
Another factor is the hypothetical development of upper-level-minors prospects. Wallner, for example, is a carryover from the rock-bottom roster, but in theory, he should be better than he was last year. Buzz around Julien is heating up, and he may be an impact bat in 2023.
That isn’t a given, though. Other guys like Lee and Martin may even play their way into a role that would move Solano or Farmer back to the bench, but it’s not prudent to count eggs before they hatch.
I am Jorge’s trick ankle.
If we were to exclude anyone with injury question marks, Correa would be out of the picture, replaced by someone like Martin. There would be some scrambling of the lineups, and it would hurt. If Lee is Major League ready, it might not hurt as much, though without pain, without sacrifice, we would have nothing, like the first monkey shot into space.
I am Royce’s twice-exploded knee.
What if every single starter on the 2023 roster is injured? How would the roster look? We can add Gordon, Gallo, Miranda, and Vazquez to the list. On the bright side, Larnach, Lewis, and Jeffers are back in the mix.
1B) Julien* (2.3 fWAR, .698 OPS)**
2B) Solano (1.5, .711)
3B) Farmer (1.6, .676)
SS) Lewis (1.7, .732)
LF) Larnach (0.2, .681)
CF) Taylor (1.8, .660)
RF) Wallner (-1.0, .669)
C) Jeffers (2.4, .684)
DH) Castro* (2.6, .648)
Starter projected fWAR: 13.1; OPS: .684
Bench:
C) Wolters* (0.0, .538)
OF) Celestino (0.0, .642)
OF) Garlick (0.6, .675)
UT) Martin (0.7, .622)
Total projected fWAR: 14.3; OPS: .664
* denotes not on the 40-man roster
** Julien’s ATC projections were awful due to a comically heavy hit to his defensive metric, so ZiPS was used here
I’m unaware of a team that can do much more than tread water without any of their starters, but this roster is one way it could shake out. Some may say that it looks better than last year’s September roster. Some may think comparing two bad teams isn’t worth considering. Others may believe that losing all hope is freedom.
I am Ryan’s contused thumb.
The goal was clear this offseason: build depth. Even if the Mona Lisa is falling apart, they must do everything possible to protect against a complete collapse, as we saw in 2022. Whoever takes the field needs to put up the fight club officials have come to expect from their guys.
It remains to be seen whether or not they built up enough depth to withstand the throes of a season. Perhaps this is what happens when you build a roster on health question marks. Perhaps no amount of depth can protect a team against losing half of their key pieces.
I’m not here to determine whether or not they did what they needed to; I just wanted to share this back-of-the-napkin mental exercise. And melodramatic prose.
I am Byron’s … everywhere.
Only after disaster can we be resurrected. It’s only after you’ve lost everything that you’re free to do anything. Nothing is static; everything is evolving; everything is falling apart.
Do you think that Falvey, Levine, and co did enough?
 

In thinking about this year’s offseason, it is no doubt that the Twins have prioritized defense. Beyond the return of Carlos Correa, both Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano bring depth to the left and right of the diamond. But the story doubles in the outfield. Newcomers Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo might struggle at the plate, but both represent major upgrades in their defensive abilities. Although Matt Wallner might look major-league ready, he’ll remain in the minor leagues for now as no deal was enough for the team to part with Max Kepler. Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino, and Nick Gordon might show up, but the depth of the outfield now accounts for injuries. And in recent seasons, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Griffin Jax, and Kenta Maeda have all been near the top of the fly ball list for MLB pitchers. Also, perhaps you have heard of Byron Buxton?
For what it’s worth, Derek Falvey and company have a plan in place. But they could also end up victims of the indifferent baseball gods that may send those balls sailing above their heads.
Ever since 2017, “juiced” balls have been a major topic of conversation within the league with discrepant years. At first, studies by Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur demonstrated a clearly new composition within MLB’s baseballs beginning in 2015. Theories about how and why the ball changed only increased with the league’s purchase of Rawlings, the company responsible for the balls in 2018. The Twins, for their part, took advantage in 2019, breaking open the single-season major-league record for home runs, a total that has yet to be topped.
But since 2019, the ball suddenly stopped flying. The shortened season impacted the data in 2020, but it was clear by 2021 that a new baseball was landing dead on the warning track over and over. MLB said nothing. 
This new ball has put a dent in numerous plans. Most teams had begun prioritizing a Three True Outcome approach, which became less useful when that most important outcome—the home run—became less likely to occur. Luis Arraez demonstrated that maybe it was time to go back to an old-school approach. 
MLB finally took responsibility after a notable study by Bradford William Davis and astrophysicist Meredith Wills proved that 2021 featured two different baseballs with different cores, resulting in wildly different results. 2022 went even crazier, as Wills and Davis found three different balls, including a “goldilocks” ball that just happens to appear most often on Sunday Night games and Yankees games, just as Aaron Judge chased his home run record. MLB admitted to the 2021 shenanigans but has forcefully denied the 2022 allegations. 
Whatever it means, the Twins have had to make a guess about how to construct a team for 2023 without any idea what ball might show up. If the ball’s drag keeps it in the park, the Twins will be in luck with a defense ready to shag balls all season long. 
But if the league decides that baseball needs more home run chases, the Twins might find their entire off-season construction to be built for an entirely different game. What’s the point of having an elite defense if all your pitchers do is serve up long balls? 
This is not to fault the organization for choosing such a route. If anything, MLB has refused to share with teams what they might expect from the ball, and their silence on the issue has only fueled conspiracies within the players about how they might be attempting to hurt their free agency. Manfred and company might not exactly know why the balls act the way they do before it is much too late. In 2022, they at least instituted humidors as a mandatory practice for all 30 league ballparks to help create some uniformity. But if they know more about the upcoming ball than teams do, why not let teams and players prepare?
One can at least hope MLB is hoping for a ball that might find some balance. With new rules in place specifically meant to increase “small ball” offense, this is the year to find a ball that might not make it to the seats but at least won’t die on the warning track. And yet, it is hard to believe that MLB has ever had a plan in place. 
The Twins can only pray they get the right balls for this comeback season. It would be a shame for a franchise playing a smart approach to the offseason only to be cooked by a complete disaster of an unknown. Until we get into the season and finally meet the ball, the answer to the Twins’ offseason tactics will remain a mystery.

Kyle Farmer knew he was going to get traded this past offseason. It was only a matter of where. 
"I'm happy I'm here," he said, looking around the bustling Twins clubhouse ahead of Tuesday's game against Atlanta. 
Maybe a little bit less happy than he was at the time of the move. It's no secret that he loves playing shortstop, where he was Cincinnati's primary starter for most of the past two seasons. Farmer was reportedly "blindsided" when the Reds moved him to third base last August, favoring prospect Jose Barrero at short.
“It sucks,” Farmer said at the time. “I love short. I’ve loved short my entire life. It’s part of the game, I guess, and they see me at third. Hopefully I play well enough to maybe play third here next year.”
Well, Farmer won't be playing third in Cincy this year, but he should see plenty of action there for the Twins. He started at the hot corner against Boston on Monday after making his spring debut at his beloved shortstop in Saturday's home opener at Hammond Stadium. He'll get the nod at second base on Wednesday against the Phillies.
Farmer was lined up as the de facto starting shortstop when the Twins acquired him from the Reds in exchange for pitching prospect Casey Legumina on November 18th, and as the offseason progressed, it looked increasingly like Farmer would indeed assume primary duties as at least an interim fixture. Free agent shortstop options came flying off the board while Minnesota's pursuit of Carlos Correa appeared doomed.
As it turns out, this pursuit was in fact not doomed. Correa signed with the Twins in January and just like that, Farmer's hopes of a full-time return to the shortstop position were dashed. But for his part, he doesn't express too much consternation about it.
"Love short, love second, and I also love third," he said. "I feel more comfortable playing second probably over anywhere besides short if I had to choose, but third base comes naturally to me too." 
Farmer also has experience at first base, which seems relevant in light of the uncertainty surrounding Alex Kirilloff's situation, but it's clear he fundamentally enjoys playing around the two-bag. "Playing up the middle it’s like, I’m having fun in baseball, it’s not like a job."
 
He will have a job to do for the Twins, and an important one. Farmer has a pretty good idea of how the team plans to use him. 
"Someone needs a day off or a lefty’s pitching or maybe they put me in certain situations but I expect to play all over the infield."
What about the outfield? There's been some chatter about that possibility, given the need for righty-swinging depth in the corner spots, but Farmer's MLB experience in the outfield is extremely scarce, amounting to total four innings in left field back in 2020 and 2021. That said, he's open to the possibility.
"I haven’t done it yet in spring training but that option’s open," Farmer shared. "As long as I’m in the lineup hitting it doesn’t matter where I play defensively."
And that's what it really comes down to: is he hitting? Farmer's strong splits against lefties are an obvious point of appeal after the Twins scuffled versus southpaws last year, but he might struggle to force his way into the lineup on a regular basis if he's not at least holding his own against righties. Last year he slashed just .235/.291/.320 against them.
Offensively, Farmer said he's focused this spring on using his hips and lower body more in his swing, gaining more consistency with his load move. The 32-year-old admitted that as he gets older, it takes him a bit longer to find his timing and get in a groove. Luckily (for him, not us), there's still plenty of spring left.
Under control for two more seasons, Farmer has the ability to impact the Twins in a range of different ways, especially if his work at the plate leads to an improvement upon his sub-par overall career OPS+ of 85. (For comparison, Max Kepler finished at 93 in a career-worst 2022 season.)
One intriguing tool in his defensive versatility kit that hasn't yet been discussed? Farmer originally came up as a catcher, and played more than 80 innings there as recently as 2019. The Twins are a little iffy on catching depth beyond Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers, so Farmer's experience there feels somewhat relevant, separating him from your standard "emergency catcher."
To be clear, the Twins are still treating him as such. Rocco Baldelli was assertive in stating that Farmer is only a break-the-glass option as opposed to a third catcher – "He will catch in an emergency and that’s it." Still, it's awfully nice to have someone in that role who is a legit backstop, and it takes away any level of hesitation about carrying only two catchers on the roster, or DH-ing one of Vázquez and Jeffers against lefties.
Compared to catching, Baldelli was a bit less rigid on the idea of Farmer getting some time in the outfield, although it doesn't sound like he's planning around it. 
"I don’t think so," the manager said when asked if he anticipated any appearances from Farmer in the outfield this spring. "We generally will make adjustments the last couple weeks of spring training depending on what the roster looks like or any injury concerns around the team, and then if someone has to get some extra work or go play some positions they haven’t, we’ll do that at that point."
Incidentally, Trevor Larnach was scratched from Tuesday's game with lower-body soreness. Meanwhile, the third baseman Miranda has only been able to play DH so far this spring due to a throwing shoulder issue, and we still have yet to see second baseman Jorge Polanco in a spring game as he works back from a knee injury. Carlos Correa is slated to make his Grapefruit League debut at shortstop on Wednesday, serving as Farmer's double-play partner, but injury concerns will inevitably loom over him and his ankle. As we've discussed, the first base and catcher positions have their own question marks.
Given all of this, it's easy to see how the flexible Farmer – who's been very durable (he would've ranked third on the Twins in plate appearances last year, and fourth in 2021) – is an extremely nice piece of have on hand, with improved offense almost feeling like a bonus on top of what he can provide with his glove all over the field.
For a team that was so often forced to use players out of position or push them beyond their station last year, Farmer is a fantastic roster fit. A floor-raising player like him might not be the most exciting, but following a season where the bottom fell out, it's a vital necessity.

Gone are the days of Terry Mulholland. At least in Minnesota, you will rarely see a strange man sitting at the end of the bullpen bench who will, five times a month, run in to pitch four or five innings of low-leverage relief, only to retreat into the shadows until the next week, when his arm is needed again.
The Twins tried to employ such a pitcher in 2021 when Randy Dobnak broke camp with the club as a long reliever. However, the team struggled to find him regular work, which had two adverse effects—it used a bullpen spot, and Dobnak (who was very much in their plans fresh off his five-year extension) could not continue to develop with the erratic schedule.
That is not to say that the team doesn’t send guys out to eat innings occasionally; it simply works differently in the modern game. Instead of retreating to the end of the bench, they typically ride the green line back to St. Paul in favor of a fresh arm.
The bullpen seems set in most people’s minds, with some hierarchy featuring Jhoan Durán, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill—each of whom has seen a good deal of Major League work. However, all are considered short relievers to one degree or another.
This concentration of short relievers became a point of consternation in 2022, as the bullpen was stretched to cover four to six innings most nights. The team tried not to throw players on back-to-back games either, and you don’t need to be a math major to understand why that’s untenable with an eight-man bullpen.
Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli doesn’t want to face that again this year, and a long reliever is a big part of that. “I personally think our best bullpen has, and always has, one option that can give you 50-75 pitches out of the bullpen. I’d like to carry someone like that at all times.”, Rocco said Friday to Twins Daily’s John Bonnes and the other Twins beat writers.  “Is that going to be the case? No, we probably won’t be able to do that in all 162. But I think having someone like in the vast majority of our games will be very helpful. I also think we have those guys.”
Given that, we may see the likes of Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, Ronny Henriquez, or Brent Headrick called up to do something similar. Sands, Winder, Henriquez, and Headrick may be prime candidates, as they seem most likely to be relievers eventually (though Henriquez is also dealing with a sore elbow.). Calling a player up like this is more the exception than the rule when it comes to divvying up innings, though.
Although the Twins could roster someone like Dobnak or Sands to be a-low leverage option, it’s debatable whether that will happen practically. I’m interested in speculating on how the Twins might get bulk work from this group—even if that doesn’t mean employing a true fulltime long reliever. I dug through 2022 usage patterns for Twins relievers with more than 15 innings and five relief appearances.Four types of usage profiles emerged in doing this. 
Short Relief
The first is true short relief. Players like Joe Smith, Thielbar, López, and Michael Fulmer rarely threw more than an inning, and none had an appearance of two or more innings. They were also the most likely to be used on back-to-back days, with each over 20% of their appearances on zero days’ rest.
Long Relief
On the other side of the spectrum were pitchers predominantly used in long relief. There were two of those guys—Sands and Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez threw five relief outings, pitching 5, 3.1, 3, 3, and 1.2 innings. Had he been on the roster all season, he would have been a true long reliever, but he only filled this role in September after rosters were expanded. However, the Twins signed him as a minor league free agent this winter, so he is another option to fill this role at least partially.
Multi-Inning Relief
Then we get to the guys who were used somewhere in the middle, which is probably the modern version of a long reliever. Some of these guys were green line regulars, like Moran and Jharel Cotton. They threw more than one inning between 25% and 50% of the time, often when ahead by more than four runs or trailing.
Although Moran and Cotton were sent down after multi-inning appearances several times, Trevor Megill remained on the roster after his initial call-up in 2022, despite having options remaining and throwing more than an inning 30% of the time. Megill’s usage was a bit all over the place in terms of leverage, and he may present the biggest question mark regarding his role for the 2023 bullpen, assuming he breaks camp with the team.
Role Changers
Finally, we have a group of pitchers that fluctuated between groups. The most pleasant surprises last year were Durán and Jax. Both players began the season as freshly-converted starters pitching multiple innings in the middle innings, but they transformed into predominantly one-inning guys.
Both threw more than an inning about a quarter of the time, but most of those appearances came at the beginning of the year. For example, Jax recorded more than three outs just thrice in the last 100 games of the season.
In the opposite direction, Emilio Pagán and Tyler Duffey began the season as single-inning options. They were converted into Cotton-esque innings-eaters by the end of the season due to performance reasons. Pagán, in particular, was an interesting case, as he took on more innings but was also relied on to throw in back-to-back games quite often. If there is one positive trait most can agree on, it’s that Pagán possesses a rubber arm.
So What Will We See?
At the beginning of the season, at least, the betting money would have to be on Megill, Moran, and Pagán being run out for multi-inning appearances. Suppose Pagán continues his improvements from late in the year (ironically in his new, low-leverage role). In that case, he may be in line for a hybrid role, lower on the bullpen hierarchy, but still trusted in some close games, depending on the rest status of other arms.
Many fans are clamoring for Moran to be used as a second lefty rather than a long reliever, and if he develops control, he may be more suited for that role. Similarly, if Megill stops leaving balls middle-middle, he can ride his 100 MPH fastball a long way.
Bulk innings may be given to whichever arm is freshest from that group, and if one emerges as a primary or secondary setup man, they may actually lead the bullpen in innings, taking the Griffin Jax path.
There may be a rotating cast of waiver claims, semi-prospects, and minor league veterans at the end of the pen, soaking up innings before returning to St. Paul, or being jettisoned into the sun, never to be seen or heard from again. However, between Pagán, Moran, and Megill, the Twins may have a group who can fill multiple innings at a time while also seeing a moderate amount of medium-to-high-leverage innings.
 
 

How did last season go?
Poorly. Again. The Royals extended their post-World Series rebuild another season, failing to crack .500 for the sixth straight season. 
They couldn’t pitch, but they made up for it by not hitting. Despite a recent influx of minor-league talent —including a gift from the prospect gods in Bobby Witt Jr.— the Royals allowed 810 runs, scored just 640 of them and dragged down a dismal AL Central with a 65-97 record. They will pick eighth in the 2023 MLB Draft.
There were bright spots, a few shiny diamonds littered in their rough. Brady Singer made The Jump, improving his control enough to net him a more-than-respectable 3.23 ERA with peripherals to match. He will continue to spot sinkers on the outside corner for years to come. The aforementioned Witt Jr. treaded water at the major-league level, showcasing elite bat speed and a potentially dynamic hitting package, but couldn’t find his aggressive sweet spot, and his OBP sat below .300 on the year. For the sake of decency, his defense at shortstop should remain ignored. But then, Vinnie Pasquantino, the first baseman netted fewer than 300 plate appearances, but showcased a frightening Freddie Freeman-esque combo of contact and power with a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate; he’s their next Alex Gordon.
What did they do this offseason?
Not much. They unceremoniously dumped Adalberto Mondesí onto the Red Sox after years of waiting for his injury bug to find a new host (it never did), signed a few arms to eat innings—Ryan Yarbrough and Jordan Lyles—because, well, someone has to, brought on Aroldis Chapman because their version of baseball reference stopped updating at 2019, and re-signed Zack Greinke after his 2022 nostalgia trip resulted in a shockingly usable pitching campaign. They also dealt away Michael A. Taylor for bullpen arms.
If that sounds like shuffling an old, mildew-covered deck of cards, you’re right. While they acquired capable major-league players—and a few once dominant ones—their on-field moves were made in order to fill roster spots, not to add impact pieces.
The difference-maker for the Royals comes via their brain trust. Longtime decision-maker Dayton Moore earned the boot before the season ended, and J.J. Picollo took over to help steer Kansas City into modernity. Manager Mike Matheny transformed into Matt Quatraro, the recent bench coach for the Tampa Bay Rays. Trekking from Cleveland, Brian Sweeney replaced Cal Eldred as pitching coach. 
The moves, while small, point towards an acknowledgment of baseball’s changing times. With their laughably archaic minor-league pitching laws likely gone, the Royals appear set to embrace the data-driven movement. 
Perhaps no player represents Kansas City's issue with developing pitchers than Asa Lacy. The former 2020 4th overall pick dominated as a sophomore with Texas A&M, earning 130 strikeouts with a miniscule 2.13 ERA. His pro time has been a disaster. The few healthy innings Lacy owns are tainted with horrifying walk rates and uncompetitive starts; his prospect status is nowhere near his draft pedigree.
What should we expect in 2023?
The Al Central-hater that resides deep within this author’s core says more of the same, but that could be a touch mean. A playoff appearance would likely only occur if the rest of the division implodes, revealing each team to be groups of children wearing trench coats, but the Royals probably aren’t looking at wins to judge success.
With Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, and Jon Heasley, Kansas City has assembled a group of talented arms, pitchers who would otherwise likely thrive in more ideal pitching environments but have floundered in the Royals’ weird philosophical model. That should change. Picollo and Sweeney will make it change. It’s unclear specifically what the new Royals will preach, but it seems impossible for them to take a step backward.
The position players tell a different story. Pasquantino is going to rake (seriously, buy as much stock in him as possible), but Kansas City has accrued an odd combination of talented hitters with poor defensive specs. Witt Jr. will probably hit well, but his defensive chops at shortstop in 2022 were atrocious; M.J. Melendez boasts a promising OBP/power skillset, but he’s a butcher at catcher and appears set to follow the Billy Butler defensive route. After them, it’s a weird assortment of older not-really-prospects and whatever Drew Waters has left in his hype tank. Although, even Waters will be out for six weeks with an oblique issue. 
What you see is mostly what you get; outfielder Gavin Cross likely won’t impact the 2022 team, leaving the light-hitting Maikel Garcia and the lighter-hitting Nick Loftin as the prospects most likely to alter Kansas City’s fortunes. Both players are infielders. Outfielder Tyler Gentry could mash enough to break the team at some point (he slugged .550 at Double-A last season). Their pitching is more dry, as Angel Zerpa and Alec Marsh represent the talented arms closest to the majors, but Kansas City will likely bank on their technically-not-prospect pool of pitchers anyways. 
The Royals probably won’t challenge much in the AL Central, but they’ve finally righted the organization, bringing in quality candidates from successful franchises who should help sift through the development quagmire that has soiled the team for years. It won’t work immediately; the 2023 Royals will exist in the nebula, only becoming apparent once the dust settles on their infrastructure altering. 
But for real, Vinnie Pasquantino is going to be awesome.

Spring training has begun, and the season is right around the corner. The start of the season begs the age-old question, who is the Opening Day starting pitcher?
The Twins have never spent significant money or pushed all their chips in to acquire a true "ace," which has left the spot of Opening Day starter as a revolving door of pitchers. The Twins have used three different pitchers in the last three years and eight different in the past ten years. 
This year, however, the Twins are in a different situation. While they still don't have a real #1 that so many desire, they have five starters that all could reasonably start on Opening Day. Who's the most likely to get the nod?
The most significant deciding factor is, more than likely, health. This past season, Sonny Gray was presumed to be the Opening-Day starter after his March 13th acquisition, but he was behind pace in spring training, and the honor was given to rookie Joe Ryan. 
It's possible that a similar situation may take Tyler Mahle out of the running. Mahle was acquired at last year's deadline but threw just 16.1 innings with the Twins before his season ended due to shoulder injuries. As of now, Mahle's spring training is going normally, but it is something to monitor as we head toward Opening Day. His upside is arguably the highest in the rotation, but he's only had one above-average season in his career. His lack of consistent performance and last year's injury makes him the least likely of the four to start on Opening Day.
While he isn't a definitive #1, Pablo Lopez substantially raises the rotation's floor. His talent is similar to Sonny Gray's, and he has shown that he can be a workhorse-type pitcher, throwing 180 innings this past season. Lopez is pitching in the WBC for Venezuela, so his performance and health may dictate his chances for Opening Day. He is also brand new to the Twins, and teams tend to pick veteran starters with more experience on the team, so it may limit his chance to start Opening Day.
Kenta Maeda is clearly another candidate. He was the Opening Day starter two years ago in 2021, coming off a (shortened) season in which he finished second in the American League Cy Young Award voting. But last year was a lost year for him as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. That doesn’t necessarily disqualify him, but there are more worthy candidates.
That leaves the two front-runners: Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray. In 2022, Ryan became the first Twins rookie to start on Opening Day since 1969. Ryan was solid with a 2.2 WAR and a 109 ERA+. He also showed his durability by leading the team in innings pitched with 147. He has no history of substantial injuries and will be ready to go on Opening Day. His lack of a track record of successful pitching is the only thing holding him back. 
Sonny Gray proved his spot as the #1 last year with 2.4 WAR and a 125 ERA+. While he did land on the IL three times, he finished the season with no injuries. Gray is the veteran of the four at 33 years old and has already pitched an entire season for the Twins. Gray has been in the league for a decade and has shown his ability to perform consistently year after year. He also has a reputation in the clubhouse as a team leader.
After looking at team history, previous injuries, and other factors, all signs point to Sonny Gray starting Opening Day. Gray has already pitched in live BP down in Fort Meyers and has no limitations in spring training. His previous time with the Twins and his veteran talent make him the strongest candidate to start on Opening Day. 

According to a tweet from Star-Tribune beat writer Phil Miller, the Minnesota Twins have claimed right-hander Dennis Santana from the Braves. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, the Twins have shifted shortstop Royce Lewis to the 60-Day Injured List. 
The 26-year-old from the Dominican has well over three years of service time in the big leagues. Signed by the Dodgers way back in 2013, Santana made his big-league debut for Los Angeles in 2018. He worked 3 2/3 innings in one game. In 2019, he pitched in three games, and in 2020, he worked in 12 games. In 2021, he pitched in 16 games for the Dodgers before being traded to the Rangers. He finished the season with 39 games in Texas. Last year, he pitched in 63 games for the Rangers. 
In total, he has pitched 139 big-league innings and has an ERA of 5.12. He has just under a strikeout per inning while walking one every other inning. Therein lies the issue. 
Shortly after the season, he was acquired by Atlanta. 
However, it is important to note that Santana is out of minor-league options. So, he will have to make the Twins roster or be put on waivers in an attempt to keep him in the organization. 
He has a nice pitch profile. Last year, his average fastball was about 97 mph. His big pitch is his mid-80s slider, which he threw about 40% of the time. He also has a decent, 90-mph changeup. 
Again, adding a young guy with a big arm. If needed, he could be DFAd and you hope he stays in the organization. Or maybe Pete Maki finds something to make him a consistent bullpen weapon. 
The addition of Jeff Hoffman is interesting. No, not because he was the ninth overall pick in the 2014 draft, but he is a 30-year-old who has spent a lot of time in the big leagues. He pitched in 68 games for the Rockies between 2016 and 2020. He has pitched for the Cincinnati Reds the past two seasons. 
He was a starter earlier in his career, so he's got a full pitch-mix. His fastball averages about 94 and he throws it a lot. He also has a curveball in the mid-to-upper 70s, a low-to-mid 80s slider, and a changeup that he probably throws too hard. 
Feel free to discuss this transaction in the COMMENTS below. 
 
 
 

Looking back on Minnesota baseball history, Black players like Kirby Puckett, Dave Winfield, Mudcat Grant, or Torii Hunter often stand out. Two names, even more recognizable, are often overlooked.
Roy Campanella
Roy Campanella was the sixth player to break the MLB color barrier and the third Brooklyn Dodger. He was on Branch Rickey’s shortlist of players he had signed to integrate baseball. As the son of a Black mother and an Italian-American father, he was seen as a candidate before Rickey settled on Robinson.
Before signing with the Dodgers in 1946, he spent nine years with the Negro Leagues Washington Elite Giants, having joined the team as a 15-year-old. In 1946, he was sent to Nashua, NH, after Brooklyn determined that the Danville Dodgers in Illinois was not a location prepared for integration.
He then spent 1947 in Montreal, where Robinson had played the year prior, rather than for the AAA St. Paul Saints. Again, the Dodgers feared the American Association was unprepared for integration.
Robinson broke the MLB color barrier in 1947, playing first base for the Dodgers, and Dan Bankhead became the second Black Dodger later that season. Campanella was knocking on the door of the big leagues, and at the beginning of the 1947 season, he registered his first MLB plate appearance as a Brooklyn Dodger, being hit by a pitch, as was the practice at the time for Black players. 
He played in a few more games in Brooklyn but was sent down to AAA as part of an early-season roster trim. Before becoming a fixture behind the plate for the Dodgers, he needed to make one more stop: Lexington Park in St. Paul.
Although not the first Black player to play in MLB, he was the first in the American Association. By public accounts, the Twin Cities welcomed him. Hitting a home run in six consecutive games with 20 RBI in a week will do that to a community.
Many wondered why it had taken so long for a Black player to come to play professional baseball on their fields, and Campanella made a case for more to be accepted into town. His success as a ballplayer was bittersweet for the fans, though; the better he played, the sooner he would be called up to Brooklyn.
Campanella spent only 39 memorable days in St. Paul, belting 13 home runs with a .325 batting average over 35 games. He left for Brooklyn amongst Minnesota well-wishers who became lifelong fans of the star catcher, supporting him from a distance.
For ten years, Campanella sat behind the plate for the Dodgers, seen as one of the top players in the game. He was an All-Star for eight consecutive years, winning the MVP three times. Unfortunately, his career was cut short due to a car accident that left him paralyzed, but in 1969, he was inducted into Cooperstown.
He may be more famous for his Hall of Fame plaque, or his mentions in Billy Joel’s We didn’t Start the Fire and Talkin’ Baseball by Terry Cashman, but for five weeks, he was the talk of the town in the Twin Cities. When he left town, there was excitement about more Black players playing for Minnesota teams.
Willie Mays
The Twin Cities didn’t have to wait long before an even more significant Black figure came along. Another New York team also had a Minnesota farm team in the American Association—the Minneapolis Millers—who would get their own slice of Black baseball in the form of the Say Hey Kid.
Willie Mays was the 17th player to cross the color barrier at the Major League level. Like Campanella, he began his professional career as a teenager in the Negro Leagues, playing for the Birmingham Black Barons in 1948. Upon graduating high school in 1950, Mays had several contract offers but chose the New York Giants.
As a 19-year-old, Mays moved to Trenton to play in the Giant’s minor league system, seeing success, hitting .353 with four home runs in 81 games. The following year, 1951, he moved to Minneapolis to play for the AAA Millers.
If Twin Cities residents thought what Campanella did was special (and it was), they had a pleasant surprise with Mays. The 20-year-old, playing against a league of grown men seven years older than him on average, hit a blistering .477 with an absurd 1.323 OPS for the Millers.
His prowess with the bat wasn’t the only draw; he was also the most outstanding defensive centerfielder of his time (if not the greatest ever). The young man, who would go on to make a play simply known as “The Catch” just three years later in the 1954 World Series, was making highlight plays nightly in Minneapolis, including one catch climbing the wall in a style that Stew Thornley compared to Ken Griffey Jr. or Bo Jackson.
Those who did not learn their lesson about the fleeting nature of superstar prospects from Campanella’s time in the Twin Cities four years earlier had only themselves to blame for missing out on Mays tearing the diamond at Nicollet Park. He was in town for an even shorter time. Although he was with the team for 38 days—one fewer than Campanella. To make matters worse, the Saints were on the road at the beginning of his stay with the team, and he left the team for New York while they were on another road trip, actually staying in the Twin Cities for just over two weeks.
Mays didn’t even make it to June before leaving for New York. The spring weather had been poor, and many in town passed up a chance to see him, hoping to catch a game later in the season. So many had missed their opportunity that these people came to refer to themselves as the I Didn’t See Him Club.
Mays, too, left a group of lifelong fans in Minnesota. To soften the blow, the owner of the Giants, Horace Stoneham, wrote a letter published in local newspapers thanking the Twin Cities for supporting Mays and the Millers, promising to send additional talented players. He never sent anyone like Mays.
We can’t blame Stoneham for that, though, because only a handful of players in history are on Mays’s level—if anyone. That same year, he was named Rookie of the Year. Three years later, in 1954, he would make The Catch, win the World Series, and be named MVP. He won MVP again in 1965 and racked up 24 All-Star games in a 21-year career (the math checks out, I promise).
Mays ranks fifth all-time in WAR, per Baseball Reference, with 660 home runs (6th all-time) and 12 Gold Gloves. He was an all-around star, the likes of which we have not since seen. Mays, too, is enshrined in the chorus of Talkin’ Baseball and is one of the bastions of the sport. At 91, the 1979 Hall of Fame inductee still serves as one of the sport’s great ambassadors.
And the last thing he did before becoming all-caps WILLIE MAYS was amaze the spectators who braved the weather to watch him play home games in Minneapolis.
The sixth and seventeenth players to break the color barrier in MLB were Minnesota ballplayers the same year they made their historic entrances. Even if it was only for five weeks each, we should remember them in the annals of Minnesota baseball history.

Caleb Thielbar just had his best career season in the Major Leagues. If you were unfamiliar with Thielbar's journey to the Big Leagues, you may think he would be a failed starter that figured things out in the bullpen or perhaps a young pitcher with a live arm that learned how to get MLB hitters out. However, as Twins fans, we know he is neither. Caleb Thielbar pitched 2022 as a 35-year-old that should have been seeing the twilight of his career in view but instead had his best season and made several improvements. You don't typically see that from someone at age 35. 
Thielbar broke into the Majors as a sinker-slider lefty specialist, a role that is becoming obsolete in MLB. He didn't strike out many hitters, and his fastball mainly sat in the upper 80s. He had an eephus-like curveball that would range into the mid-60s that was always fun to watch hitters buckle at, but it was more of a gimmick pitch. 
Thielbar was far from that pitcher in 2022. He ditched the sinker in favor of exclusively four seamers, ramped up the velocity, and transformed his fluttering curveball into a bat-missing machine. Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. 
In 2022 Thielbar saw career bests in fastball, slider, and curveball velocity at 92.8, 81.3, and 73.0 MPH, respectively. Compared to his age 28 season in 2015, the first year Baseball Savant had spin rate data, Thielbar also has seen his spin rates in his fastball jump from 2,091 RPMs in 2015 to 2,298 RPMs in 2022. He made similar progress in his breaking pitches: his slider went from 1,963 RPMs in 2015 to 2,368 in 2022, and his curveball went from 2,127 to 2,455. 
As a result of these pitch improvements, Thielbar's strikeout rate in his most recent two seasons is more than 10% higher than that of his first two seasons. These are not typical improvements from someone entering their mid to late 30s. 
This data is nice, but how has it resulted in his pitching? I mentioned earlier that Thielbar was a premier left-handed reliever in 2022, and here is why. According to Baseball Savant, Thielbar completed 2022 in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity against, 100th percentile in hard hit%, 94th percentile in xwOBA, and 89th percentile in xSLG. He was one of baseball's best pitchers in limiting hard contact. His improved pitch physicals also helped him miss bats; Thielbar finished 93rd percentile in K% and 80th percentile in swing and miss%. 
While batted ball data is valuable, it only tells part of the story. Sometimes results can still be underwhelming despite excellent peripherals. (Shoutout, Max Kepler). Fortunately for Thielbar, this is not the case. Using Fangraphs' splits tool, we can see Thielbar finished top ten among left-handed relievers that threw at least 50 innings in FIP (4th 2.42), xFIP (7th 3.07), K% (5th 32.7%), and K%-BB% (4th 25.3%). He also finished in the top 20 in batting average against (20th), OBP against (11th), SLG against (14th), and wOBA against (11th). 
Potential is a tricky thing to figure out. So many factors go into player development; we only see a small percentage of those as a fan. Perhaps Caleb Thielbar can help us change our perception of youth and potential. You don't have to be 22 years old to get better at baseball, and just because you hit age 30 doesn't mean you have to get worse. Maybe Caleb Thieblar can be a lesson for us when projecting a player's upside because, in 2013, I don't think anyone saw this coming from him.

The Minnesota Twins thought they were signing veteran infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Instead, they signed a rock-and-roll legend.
“We’re pleased to announce the unexpected signing of Donovan,” said Twins PR flack Dustin Morse. “We look forward to seeing how he can contribute to the team this spring. We’ll be making no further comment.”
Team sources who requested anonymity to speak freely, said a paperwork mishap at the league office sent Solano, 35, to the Rio Grande Rockin’ Ribs-o-Rama in El Paso, Texas. Despite having no identifiable musical talent, he’s opening for Smash Mouth on the Dairy Queen Grill ‘n Chill Stage.
“He played the recorder in grade school,” said Rich Marsden, Solano’s agent. “He will tear through ‘Hot Cross Buns’ and leave the crowd wanting more.”
Meanwhile, the oldest Twin since Jesse Orosco is headed to his first spring training.
“I’m terribly confused,” said Leitch.
The 76-year-old Scottish folk singer, known for songs like “Mellow Yellow” and “Season of the Witch,” is expected to report to Twins camp on Friday.
Some team officials are embracing the opportunity.
“Phish played ‘Hurdy Gurdy Man’ at The Great Went, brother,” said Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “Everyone was just there, being, as one. Can’t wait to see what he brings to the clubhouse.
“Trey was fire that night,” added Baldelli.
Still, with his 77th birthday on the horizon, most are skeptical that Leitch can contribute to the 2023 squad.
“He’s incredibly old,” said a source close to the front office. “He’s 40 years older than everyone else. He can’t hit for power or average. He has no natural position. He’s never played baseball. And those lyrics are straight nonsense. No one is mad about saffron. No one. Trash spice.”

Driveline Baseball has become something of a household name in baseball circles in recent years, as it’s extended its reach from youth baseball to the MLB level. Using the newest technology and data available in the baseball world, Driveline has its fair share of success stories among professional pitchers. In 2023, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle are looking to become the newest names added to the list.
Mahle and Ryan likely had very different goals in mind this offseason and each opted to take them to the pitching labs of Driveline Baseball. We often hear little about what specifically pitchers are working on during their offseason routine, but given the reputation of Driveline and the details that we’ve received, this news should be exciting to Twins fans.
Tyler Mahle
The first thought when hearing his name tied to Driveline was a recovery plan for whatever shoulder ailment ended his 2022 season. Instead, Mahle went about his business as usual this offseason, looking to make tweaks to his repertoire. Even when healthy last season, he seemed to be missing just a small piece of the puzzle.
Mahle opted to revamp his slider after the 2022 season. He has what’s classified as a slider and a cutter, though it’s fair to wonder whether both are the same pitch that classify differently at times, as the “slider” averaged a bit less velocity than the “cutter”. At any rate, these were his two worst pitches by most measures. Expected Batting Average and Slugging were markedly worse than his fastball and splitter for these two pitches, and it showed up in his platoon splits. 
Right-handed hitters put up an OPS of .784 against the right-handed Mahle, much worse than the .602 mark against left-handed hitters. It was clear he lacked an equalizer against same-handed hitters.
From the little we can see, Mahle has added more horizontal break to his slider and less vertical break. It appears to be a new look breaking ball, which is a welcome change based on how the previous one had difficulties equalizing right-handed hitters. For how well he’s performed against left-handed hitters in his career, if he can find any kind of similar success against righties, he could become a certified stud.
Joe Ryan
After being able to dominate the minors with mostly a fastball, the Twins tried to incorporate a slider to better equip Joe Ryan to start in the MLB. On the season, Ryan allowed just one less homer on the slider than he did his fastball, though he threw the slider roughly a third as much. Ryan seemed to find something to end the season, as the pitch was dominant in September by many measures including Expected Slugging and Batting Average, hard hit % etc. Ryan took that momentum to Driveline as well this winter.
For Ryan, further developing another pitch is a must. His fastball remained fantastic despite being used over 60% of the time, which means any kind of plus secondary offering would raise Ryan’s game to new heights. With the foundation he and the Twins built on the breaking ball, it’s exciting to think about what an offseason at Driveline could do for the pitch.
Ryan had more than one pitch in mind this winter. Unlike Mahle, Ryan is significantly better against same-handed hitters. His strikeouts markedly drop off, suggesting a need for a good matchup pitch for left-handed hitters. Because of this, Ryan worked on a split changeup this winter as well.
Of note, this is the same pitch that has been Tyler Mahle’s bread and butter secondary, and is a big reason for the lack of platoon splits in his career. Traditionally the pitch is a little faster and has more late life than the plain old changeup. This makes it a bit tougher to pick up by opposite handed hitters who typically have a better look at what’s coming from the pitcher. While it’s tough to say what to expect from Ryan debuting an entirely new pitch, it’s easy to look at the changeup he used just 12% of the time in 2022 and see room for improvement.
Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan have high end upside. Both have good foundations in their repertoire, Ryan with his magical fastball and Mahle with his uncommon ability to negate platoon splits. It sounds like both went in search of the missing pieces this winter at Driveline, and it’ll be interesting to see how the new pitches look. There’s a possibility that both pitchers raise their games to new levels.

MLB prospect rankings were tough to find back in the early 1980s. Coverage of the minor leagues was not exactly prominent before the internet's takeover. However, Baseball America does have archives of its rankings dating back to that time, which is pretty fun.
You may be unsurprised to learn that in 1984, ahead of his major-league arrival, Kirby Puckett ranked No. 1 on Baseball America's prospect list for the Twins. It was well earned. Drafted third overall in '82, he was an immediate sensation, batting .382 in his pro debut and reaching the majors for good within two years. 
Little did anyone know back then, but Puckett would go on to epitomize the thrilling highs and tragic lows that can come with a life in pro baseball – the variance involved in even a legendary Hall of Fame career. He was a shining star of the game for 10 years, and a World Series hero, before it all came crashing down in sudden and devastating fashion.
"Don't take it for granted,'' Puckett reportedly told his teammates in 1996, after informing them of his retirement due to an irreversible eye condition. "Tomorrow is not promised to any of us, so enjoy yourself.''
His post-playing life became an even sadder story, but I'm not looking to dwell on that. Instead, I want to reflect on his parting sentiments toward the game, his fellow players, and his fans. 
Puckett was fortunate (as were we) that he was able to achieve the iconic heights he did. The same can be said for subsequent top prospects and MVPs like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. These players had the chance to establish their enduring legacies, even if all three primes were cut short by freak injuries beyond their control.
In recent years, we've seen that even a truncated run of notoriety like theirs is by no means assured for the brightest and most touted talents to come through the franchise.
A lookback through the successive No. 1-ranked prospects in the organization over the past 10 years, according Twins Daily's lists, reminds us that even for the most promising, nothing is ever promised. Hopefully it also provides a bit of valuable perspective, with a nod to Kirby's advice about enjoying today and not worrying about tomorrow.
Twins Daily #1 Prospects Over the Years
Byron Buxton: 2013-16
Thirty years after Puck, Buck came along and followed right in his footsteps: high school star center fielder turned top-three draft pick turned immediate pro success. Buxton quickly emerged as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball and reached the majors by age 21.
 
 
As we know, it's been anything but a storybook journey for him since then. The tools and talents that earned Buxton such prospect praise have been fully on display in between endless and excruciating bouts with injury. He enters this year surrounded by an especially high degree of uncertainty as he looks to move past a recurring knee issue some fear to be chronic. 
While much of his tale thankfully remains to be written, Buxton's turbulent journey to this point perfectly summarizes the theme of this list: everything he can control has gone right, and everything he can't, has not.
Fernando Romero: 2017
Once Buxton had officially graduated to major-league status, a void opened in his entrenched perch atop Twins top prospect rankings. Different outlets went different directions, breaking with the firm consensus that ruled Buxton's reign, but TD's panelists chose Fernando Romero. The big right-hander had seemingly overcome his own gauntlet of injuries to re-emerge as a fireballing ace prototype with velocity, spin, command, and mound presence.
Of course, this optimistic forecast never came close to materializing, and in his case, we can't chalk it up as much more than an age-old example of the encouraging young arm plateauing and fizzling out at the highest level. Romero struggled over 26 appearances with the Twins between 2018-19, and hasn't been back to the majors since. He spent the past two seasons playing in Japan, with mediocre numbers.
Royce Lewis: 2018-20
When you get selected at the very top of the draft and immediately start performing in the minors, it's a natural path to the No. 1 prospect spot, which is why Buxton held it down for four straight years, and why Lewis opened up his own three-year reign shortly thereafter. 
Then, Lewis began his own battle with uncontrollable adversity. The shortstop was creeping toward MLB-readiness in 2020 when the COVID pandemic wiped out an entire minor-league season. During the following winter, he tore his ACL slipping on ice, requiring surgery that erased his 2021 season. Shortly after returning to the field following a lengthy rehab, he re-tore the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. He's again on the rehab track and aiming to return midseason, at which point he'll have played 46 official games in the past three-and-a-half years.
Alex Kirilloff: 2021
No minor-league baseball was played during the 2020 season, so there wasn't much movement among returning players on our list the following year. We did, however, elevate Kirilloff to No. 1 on the basis of a loud showing at the team's St. Paul training site that culminated with an MLB debut in the playoffs.
 
 
He'd already gone through his own cruel rite of passage as a Twins top prospect, losing a season of development in the minors to Tommy John surgery, but Kirilllof had seemingly come out on the other side. He got the official call-up in 2021 and looked like he was in the majors to stay before a wrist injury surfaced and sent his ascendant career spinning off the rails. Almost two years later, he's still trying to get it back on track, following a second surgery on the same wrist. 
Early signs are good, but Derek Falvey painted a stark picture of finality regarding the success (or non-success) of this last-ditch effort a salvage a career threatening to grind to a halt almost before it starts.
"He’s never coming in at the end of the day, walking into that room and going, ‘Hey, I’ve got some soreness,’ " Falvey told reporters. “At this point, that’s all we can do because as you all know, this is the procedure. There’s not another one. This needs to work."
Austin Martin: 2022
The headliner of 2021's José Berríos trade, Martin went straight to Double-A after being drafted and led the league in on-base percentage while showing stellar speed, contact skills, and strike zone control. With Kirilloff graduating and Lewis coming off two straight missed seasons, Martin overtook the top spot on our list.
He followed up with an underwhelming encore at the same level, tarnishing his prospect luster, but the 23-year-old should not be discounted as a factor going forward. The same standout traits mentioned above were still intact even as his modest power evaporated, and talent is talent. 
Like Romero, Martin's drop-off is seemingly a more standard story of stalling player development than catastrophic bad fortune, but unlike Romero, he still has plenty of time to reverse course and show this was nothing more than a bump in the road. 
At the very least, Martin seems destined to pan out as a useful big-leaguer player, if not a star, and that's a (generally common) middle-of-the-road outcome that's been rare in these ranks.
Brooks Lee: 2023
Alas, we arrive at The New Guy. Lee joined the organization as the No. 8 overall pick last summer, and he followed the tried-and-true path of Buxton, Lewis, and Martin before him: from top draft pick to immediate producer to No. 1 Twins prospect. As we've seen, the paths can diverge greatly from this initial juncture.
By no means am I drawing out this pattern to place a hex on Lee (though one could argue, based on ample evidence, that he was cosmically hexed from the moment he was drafted by the Twins in the first round). I do think it sheds important context on the punishing nature of this profession, the lack of assurances for any player, and the importance of enjoying things in the moment. 
Things like Lee experiencing first major-league camp, or Lewis sprinting and smiling on the sidelines as he cheerily battles to overcome another setback. Each time Kirilloff swings and cracks a line drive with no ensuing wince, or Buxton springs up after a spectacular diving catch, it's something to appreciate because we've all seen how quickly and randomly it can all go away.
People who obsess over following prospects, like myself, are apt to get overly caught up in projecting the future, and fixating on ceilings, and taking for granted that greatness will find a way. Sometimes, it doesn't. And even when it does, the moment can be fleeting. In fact, most often it is. 
No one knows what tomorrow will hold. And in large part, that's out of our hands. I think this is an important mindset for Twins fans to carry into a season that will inevitably be fraught with looming health concerns and triggering setbacks. My recommendation (and one I'll aspire to live by): Don't give into doomsday-ism, just enjoy the moment.
Past does not dictate present or future. The Twins as a team will be setting out prove that following back-to-back disappointing seasons, and many of their former chart-topping prospects will be looking to support that cause by doing the same.

Hurt feelings over arbitration are not a new phenomena; they are the byproduct of a system that pits the player’s capitalizing desires against a team’s inherent payroll conservatism, revealing the gross reality when neither player nor team owns sole control over one’s salary. It's a messy beast. While team and player can kiss and make up—indeed, bridges don’t always burn—it seems inevitable that grudges, minor and major, can brew resentment. There’s a reason why both parties dread the process.
Burnes’ arbitration case stands out as one of the messiest in recent memory. Milwaukee remained steadfast in their offer, forcing a day in court over a less than $750,000 difference in pay. While the Brewers technically offered a deal to avoid the meeting—a two-year pact that Burnes described as “pretty poor”— their arguments in the case revealed their intent.
“I mean, there’s no denying that the relationship was definitely hurt from what (transpired) over the last couple of weeks,” said the 2021 Cy Young winner following the decision. “There’s really no way to get around that.”
“You work hard for seven years in the organization and five years with the big-league team, and you get in there and basically they value you much different than what you thought you’d contributed to the organization.” 
 
Professionalism will keep Burnes from mutiny or internal sabotage, but his words tinge with hurt feelings and sourness. After all, Milwaukee apparently placed him in the forefront of reasons why they missed the playoffs. 
With two years of team control remaining, and a healthy PECOTA projection placing Milwaukee as the class of a weird NL Central, the Brewers have no reason to deal their starter. Burnes may be pissy, but athletes have been crabby for years; an upset star only matters when you start losing. 
But time can fritter and waste in an offhand way. Two years melt away, losses can pile up, and a team can suddenly find themselves staring at an extensive re-evaluation process as their assets’ years dwindle. It would not be a shock to see Christian Yelich and His Merry Men flail early, perhaps placing Milwaukee—a team always conscious about their stars—in a tough spot. Conversations may need to occur; tough decisions made. Could they afford to hold tight, banking that they reverse course in 2024 with enough vigor to make Burnes’ place on the team worthwhile?
The Twins must have their radar up. Aces—always such a rarity these days—almost never become available, especially for a team that lacks the monetary fortitude to pay for one in free agency. Trades are the great savior. When the market evolves, potentially offering a chance for the team to snag their guy, they must react.
But the timing must be right. The opportunity, perfect. Spring training is not the appropriate venue for such a deal to go down, but if the team holds their own through July, the trade deadline could be the time to strike. 
Other teams are thinking as well, wondering whether they can pull the same maneuver to swipe Burnes for themselves. Every team in baseball can use him; the only thing holding them back is themselves. They’ll battle with wondering if they have the gumption to bypass their desire to avoid risk and embrace owning the services of a unique starter. With an unambiguous stud in Burnes, that question becomes a lot easier. 
For Minnesota, their offer may not touch other teams; their prospect pool is ok, but acquiring Burnes’ services requires the best, not a heap pile of castaways. A combo likely requires Brooks Lee, Marco Raya, and more. It’ll hurt—especially after a plethora of prior trades drained their farm system—but it may be the most crucial step towards the glorious playoff run Derek Falvey and co have worked towards since taking over in 2016. It’s unlikely to happen, but so was signing Carlos Correa, and sometimes you need a little luck, or a grumpy ace, to put your team over the top.

Last week at The Athletic, Dan Hayes wrote a great story about Chris Paddack and why the right-hander was open to a three-year contract extension with the Twins as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. On the surface, the $12.5 million pact seems immensely team-friendly, locking him down at $2.5 million in 2024 -- when he will ostensibly be back to full health -- and buying out his first free agent year for a mere $7.5 million.
If Paddack, who recently turned 27, can return to pitching anywhere near the level he was at prior to surgery, he'll be an incredible bargain and an ultra-valuable asset for the rotation in 2024/25. But that can't be safely assumed coming off a second TJ surgery, and he gets it.
“I’m always kind of gambling on myself,” he told Hayes. “If this was my first one, maybe we’re talking just a one- or two-year deal with risk and gambling on myself going into my contract year. But this is something I couldn’t pass up, man. It’s a win-win for me."
Which brings us to Royce Lewis, who is facing his own version of Paddack's journey, and happens to have the same agent (Scott Boras).
Lewis is rehabbing from a second consecutive tear of the same right ACL. His odds of returning to the field as an impact player are probably much higher than Paddack's, given the murky history of double-TJ pitchers, but the risks of going through this ordeal cannot be downplayed, especially for a player whose game is based on springy athleticism.  
Of course, the Twins' No. 2 prospect is in a very different situation career-wise compared to Paddack. By virtue of MLB's service system, Minnesota controls Lewis' rights for the next six years, including at a league-minimum salary for the next three. 
Many teams have exercised their leverage in this position to work out long-term contracts with highly touted young players who've barely played in the majors, if at all. (The Rays have become famous for it and the Braves just did it with Michael Harris II.)
In the case of Harris, Atlanta locked down the 21-year-old outfielder for eight years and $72 million last August, midway through a Rookie of the Year debut. The contract buys out his first two free agency years with a pair of team options after that. Here's how it shakes out: 
2023: $5 million 2024: $5 million 2025: $8 million 2026: $8 million 2027: $9 million 2028: $10 million 2029: $10 million 2030: $12 million 2031: $15 million club option ($5 million buyout) 2032: $20 million club option ($5 million buyout) The big draw for Harris in this arrangement, aside from the ultimate security of guaranteeing himself $72 million, is the elevation of his income in the next few years. Rather than earning the league minimum each year in 2023-25, he'll make $18 million total over those campaigns. 
Compared to Harris, Lewis obviously has a lot less bargaining power at the moment. He's three years older. He briefly debuted in the majors and looked good, but didn't make nearly so emphatic and convincing a statement as Harris. And of course, there's the knee injuries.
Still, Harris contract might provide a helpful framework for thinking about a Lewis extension that makes sense for both sides: increased pre-arb paydays, as part of a total sum of guaranteed money that assures generational wealth, in return for cost-controlled years of arbitration and free agency, plus the flexibility of some team options at the back end.
The proposal below amounts to roughly a seven-year, $34 million contract, buying out one year of free agency with an additional two team options on the back end (not entirely dissimilar from the extensions given to Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, albeit further along in their development):
2023: $1M 2024: $3M 2025: $3M 2026: $5M 2027: $5M 2028: $7M 2029: $10M 2030: $12M team option ($1M buyout) 2031: $15M team option ($1M buyout) For the Twins, the incentive here is obvious -- adding a star-caliber talent in Lewis to the entrenched long-term core alongside Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa -- with cost certainty that fits nicely alongside their progressive salary allocations. (Notably, by the time Lewis reaches even a $10 million salary in this framework, Correa would already be into his option years with declining salaries.)
The team downside is nominal: if Lewis completely fails to make it back and pan out as an effective MLB player, the Twins would be on the hook for a total sum of money slightly below Correa's 2023 salary. 
For Lewis, the incentive also should be obvious, but it might not be quite enough. Very possibly, he's inclined to bet on himself and aim for bigger paydays, especially if he's feeling really good at this stage of his recovery. No one would begrudge him. 
At the same time, should anyone be surprised if he and Boras are open to this kind of extension? Not only has Lewis seen his outlook become shrouded in doubt by two straight freak injuries to the same knee, but at a higher level, he's experienced the way this game can cruelly take things away from you, in ways that are completely out of your control. For what it's worth, he also seems to genuinely enjoy being a part of this organization, which could factor as well.
If Lewis is looking for long-term security, the Twins should be welcoming that conversation with open arms. Even if the terms above are not agreeable, there's a lot of room for flexibility to still find a framework that makes a ton of sense for both sides.
 

It was never certain that the Twins were going to have Taylor Rogers in their long-term plans. He was entering the final year of team control, and also coming off an injury that sapped effectiveness in 2021. Emilio Pagan certainly didn’t work out in his place, but the hope is for better returns in year two.
Ultimately, it was the emergence of Jhoan Duran that all but saved Rocco Baldelli’s group last season, and the unlikeliness of that being a reality seems drastic. Duran wasn’t supposed to make the Opening Day roster, and he was largely a starting prospect until that point. He now is among the league’s best fireballers, and combined with Jorge Lopez at the back, the Twins could have a nice one-two punch.
Similar to how Duran emerged quickly to act as a cornerstone, and someone like Griffin Jax was developed into a key cog, a new duo could represent that narrative this season.
Enter Jorge Alcala and Ronny Henriquez.
After posting a 3.55 ERA during 2020 and 2021, expectations for Alcala were understandably high coming into last year. While he doesn’t possess the same triple-digit regularity as Duran, his average fastball velocity sits above 97 mph. We didn’t get to see him contribute in 2022 as injury ended his year before it truly started, but a healthy version could put him right back in the thick of high-leverage chances.
Alcala did record a save in 2021, but more importantly he was someone Baldelli could lean on in key situations. As a strikeout arm that has done a good job of limiting walks, Alcala has already proven that no matchup is too great for him at this level. He’s now had a full offseason of recovery, and although he’ll need to work his way back into the pecking order, knowing the talent is there should provide solace.
On the flip side, Henriquez is an arm that seems poised for more. Acquired from the Texas Rangers in the Mitch Garver trade, Henriquez was pitching well past his level at Triple-A. He was five years younger than the average age, and sometimes that manifested itself in his starting results.
Eventually the Twins gave Henriquez more work out of the pen, and a front office source noted early on in the season that he could be a big league factor in relief by the end of the season. That seemed lofty given his age and results, but that was the exact path that played out. Working out of the pen, Henriquez allowed an OPS nearly .150 points lower to the opposition. His ERA, while still inflated, was always more than 1.30 runs less per nine innings.
It would be foolish to expect Henriquez to contribute at the same level as Alcala immediately, but if the former is a first-half story then the latter could play in the second half. Henriquez still needs to reign in the longball a bit, but there is plenty to like about the repertoire and body of work as a whole. The Twins may have landed Isiah Kiner-Falefa for the big league roster when swinging Garver, but it was always Henriquez that seemed to be the prize.
There is validity in suggesting Minnesota could’ve targeted Michael Fulmer or Matt Moore. Maybe they’ll still find room for a different veteran to compete in the bullpen. Still, blocking someone that should re-emerge, or another arm that could be poised for a breakout, seems like it would be a misstep. After watching Duran and Jax flourish a season ago, the next pair has to be their focus.

Inside Notes 2023-02-16.mp3  
 

Leading into the 2023 season, fans can analyze different projection systems to predict the performance of any big-league team. For this article, Steamer projections will be featured. According to MLB.com, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. 
Steamer projects the Twins' top five position players as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Christian Vazquez. On the mound, the top five pitchers are all starters, including Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. It would be easy to target any of those players and say they need to outperform their projections, but let's dig deeper into the roster. 
Joey Gallo, OF
2023 Steamer Projection: .188/.313/.393, 105 wRC+, 2.7 Off, -6.3 Def, 1.1 WAR
The Twins signed Gallo to a one-year, $11 million deal in hopes of him returning to the All-Star caliber player he was in previous seasons. He's coming off his worst professional season, as he posted a .638 OPS and a 79 OPS+ over 126 games for the Yankees and the Dodgers. His projected slugging percentage is 76 points below his career average, which is one area he will need to outperform his projection. His defensive total also seems extremely low for a player known as a strong defender. Last year, he posted a -1.3 Def, his lowest total since 2017. 
Trevor Larnach, OF
2023 Steamer Projection: .225/.306/.373, 96 wRC+, -1.9 OF, -5.3 Def, 0.3 WAR
Over the last two seasons, Larnach has dealt with multiple injuries, including a hand injury and a core muscle injury. When healthy, his powerful bat looks like it should be penciled into the middle of the Twins line-up. In 16 games last June, he posted a 1.077 OPS with six doubles and three home runs. Twins Daily's most recent roster projection has Larnach pegged to start the year at Triple-A. He will have to prove he is healthy and hit his way back to the big-league roster. Injuries will impact the Twins' outfield, and he needs to be ready when promoted. 
Jorge Alcala, RP
2023 Steamer Projection: 54 IP, 3.75 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.2 WAR
Alcala missed nearly all of the 2022 season after having arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. In 2021, Alcala posted a 3.92 ERA with 9.2 K/9 over 59 2/3 innings while earning opportunities in a late-inning role. The Twins didn't add anyone to the bullpen this winter, which makes Alcala's return even more critical. He's already produced more than 0.2 WAR in multiple big-league seasons, so that projection is the most significant discrepancy. If Alcala can outperform his projections, he may help to revitalize a core bullpen group that struggled through much of the first half of 2022. 
Jorge Lopez, RP
2023 Steamer Projection: 70 IP, 3.58 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.4 WAR
Steamer projects Lopez to provide the fourth-highest WAR total among Twins relievers. It's reasonable to think that the Twins would be disappointed in that result. Minnesota surrendered four pitching prospects (including Cade Povich) because they felt Lopez could upgrade the bullpen for multiple seasons. He struggled after the trade with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 23 appearances. The Twins won't follow a traditional closer model, but Lopez will likely get save opportunities, primarily if Jhoan Duran is used in high-leverage situations earlier than the ninth inning. 
Which player is most likely to outperform their Steamer projection? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Black baseball existed separately from white baseball back in the early 1900s, mainly at the regional level. Twin Cities businessman Phil "Daddy" Reid met future Hall of Famer and founder of the first professional league for African-American players, the National Negro League—Rube Foster. The two formed a friendship that led Reid to start his own ball club.
This club, however, would not be a regional team, gathering players from around the Twin Cities. Instead, Reid wanted to build a team that could compete with the best teams in the Midwest, so he hired Walter Ball to scout the country to find the best players willing to relocate to Minnesota. Many of these players had recently been released by the Leland Giants of Chicago, a team recently taken over by Rube Foster.
Among those players were team captain George Taylor and pitcher Clarence "Dude" Lytle, who led the team to astounding success. Although reports differ, the team played approximately 110 games that year with a winning percentage of around 85%, including a stretch of 36 consecutive wins. 
The team played any challengers willing to take them on, whether Black or white, including the St. Paul Saints of the American Association. Foster himself—a great pitcher who earned his nickname "Rube" after besting the legendary Rube Waddell in a 1903 exhibition—took the mound for the Gophers in the deciding game of the series against the Saints. Roster rules were a bit laxer in those days (except for the whole not-allowing-Black-players-to-play thing).
Foster would return again in 1908 to pitch for the Gophers in a game against the Hibbing Colts, throwing a no-hitter. The team brought in a few notable full-season players, including George "Rat" Johnson (he also went by "Chappie"; please, George, save some good nicknames for the rest of us) and Bill Gatewood, who joined Lytle in the rotation. The team experienced similar levels of success, winning about 75% of their approximate 120 games, though they did lose their season series to the Saints.
The Gophers were reaching the peak of their popularity. Teams from around the Midwest were lining up to take their shots at beating the juggernaut of a team—and paying good money to Daddy Reid for the privilege of losing to them, more often than not. The club also drew large crowds at their game, but not just because of their ability.
At that time, Minnesota was 0.3% Black, and although the percentage was higher within the Twin Cities, many people had never seen a Black man, let alone a Black ballplayer. Some of these players had parents who were born in slavery. There was a novelty to the game, and although the players were not allowed in "organized baseball," the average person wanted to watch these young men play.
In 1909, the team continued to grow, as the Gophers and Foster's Leland Giants took a scouting trip into the South to find adding star brothers "Candy" Jim and "Steel Arm" Johnny Taylor and a three-fingered pitcher named Julius London. Also among those joining the team that year were a spit-baller named Archie Pate, veteran Bill Binga—a defect from the cross-town rival Minneapolis Keystones—and Minnesota legend Bobby Marshall.
That year, the St. Paul Colored Gophers, at the pinnacle of their talent and popularity, would take on their greatest challenge yet—the Leland Giants. Since Foster's control of the team began, the Giants had been widely regarded as one of, if not the best, colored baseball teams in the country. Behind Foster on the mound, the team was nigh unbeatable.
The series was to be five games, held in St. Paul, with the winner declared as the "Black National Champions," as proposed by Foster. There was no tournament to be played, just the team widely considered the best in the country, squaring off against one of the most popular teams in the area. Notable and respected people from Chicago made the trip by train to see the two talented teams face off.
Unfortunately, the Gophers could not use Foster as a ringer for this series. Fortunately, he did not pitch for the Lelands, either. The series went all five games, and the Gophers clinched the series in a nail-biting 3-2 Game Five victory. Foster, always gracious in defeat, was quoted saying, "No man who ever saw the Gophers play would think of classing them world's colored champions or would think the playing ability of the other teams was very weak."
The Giants handily won Game 2 and Game 3 by scores of 8-1 and 5-1, but the Gophers' wins came in 10-9, 4-3, and 3-2 games, meaning the Giants outscored the Gophers 26-19. (Of note, the Gophers won Game 1 on a walk-off home run by St. Paul's Bobby Marshall, who would go on to become the NFL's first Black player.) Still, Foster's calling the games "exhibition contests" after the fact was probably a bit too far. Arguably the greatest player to don a Colored Gophers jersey became the team's most prominent critic.
Other teams around the country also objected to the Gophers being declared Black National Champions—given that there was no tournament or governing body. Still, such was the state of baseball at the time. Eleven years later, Foster would go on to found the Negro National League, the first step in officially organizing Black baseball. In the meantime, if Major League Baseball was crowning a World Champion every year while preventing Black players from playing, maybe the term had no meaning anyway.
The Colored Gophers would play the 1910 season before many of their key contributors moved on. In 1911, the team played under the name Twin Cities Gophers, then the St. Paul Gophers in 1913, and the Minneapolis Gophers in 1914 and 1916. Daddy Reid died of a heart attack in 1912, combined with the difficulty keeping young men in the Twin Cities, opposed to other, more favorable, US cities. The organized Negro Leagues were beginning, but an official team never laid roots in Minnesota.
Between the 1920s and 1950s, when the Negro Leagues ceased to exist, Black teams called the Gophers popped up in the Twin Cities from time to time, though none as successful or long-lasting as Daddy Reid's club. Still, notable players would come to the Twin Cities to play against the Gophers, such as Ted "Double-Duty" Radcliffe in 1942, who earned his nickname by pitching in one game of a doubleheader and catching the other.
Like many similar teams at the time, the Colored Gophers ended with a whimper, but they were instrumental in furthering the game. They brought Black baseball players from around the country to build a talented and entertaining team in Minnesota. Their existence was intimately tied to one of the most significant figures in baseball history, the Godfather of the Negro Leagues, Rube Foster. One of the biggest plays in their history was courtesy of the first Black player in the NFL, Bobby Marshall. And they were champions.
 

Age: 23 (DOB: 6/5/1999)
2022 Stats: 12 G, .300/.317/.550, 4 2B, 2 HR, 2.4% BB, 12.2% K

National Top 100 Rankings:
BA: 82 | MLB: 46 | BP: 40
 
What's To Like
After not playing in professional baseball since the 2019 season, 2022 represented an opportunity to see Royce Lewis back in game action. He had nowhere to play outside of St. Paul for alternate site action in 2020, and then he suffered a fluke knee injury after tearing his ACL in Texas before the 2021 season.
There was plenty of reason to be uncertain about what Lewis would bring to the table given his time off, but he picked right back up where things ended during 2019 Arizona Fall League action. Although his swing left plenty to be desired during the regular season in 2019, his .975 OPS across 22 games for Salt River was plenty exciting.
Lewis began the 2022 season with Triple-A St. Paul. It was a substantial leap given he played just 33 games at Double-A two years prior, but he looked every bit like he belonged. In 24 games to start the season, Lewis owned a .993 OPS and had an even more impressive 20/17 K/BB ratio. His plate discipline translated to a .430 OBP, and he blasted a trio of home runs alongside 11 doubles.
After an injury to starting shortstop Carlos Correa, Lewis found himself making his major-league debut at a position some wondered whether he could hold down. The bat played in the big leagues, and although the plate discipline slid some, he more than held his own offensively. In the field, Lewis looked the part of a natural shortstop and made plenty of throws that suggested he could stick at the position. Even after Correa returned from injury, Lewis still found a way to force his way onto Rocco Baldelli’s 26-man roster. What’s Left to Work On
Similar to the situation entering 2022, Lewis will again need to prove he’s healthy and ready for the next challenge. After making a brief cameo in centerfield filling in for Byron Buxton, Lewis tore his ACL again in a fluke collision with the wall. He has every idea how to rehab the injury a second time around, and it’s clear he came back strong, but the proof will need to be there again. This time around Lewis will also be returning to a new position. He played third base in high school and could factor there with Jose Miranda, or he could play second base with Jorge Polanco. There will be opportunities at shortstop, but the bulk of that time is going to go to Correa in the foreseeable future. Getting Lewis reps around the diamond at St. Paul will be a must early on this summer. When it comes to production at the plate, Lewis will also need to work on consistency. His 12 game sample size was great, but indicative of very little. He struck out just five times in 41 plate appearances, but he also only drew one walk. Bringing the plate discipline and on-base prowess from Triple-A in 2022 is something that Minnesota would love to see. His swing has calmed down quite a bit, and working to make that habit needs to continue as well. What’s Next
For Lewis, it’s going to be continued rehab the rest of the spring and into the early summer. He has indicated feeling better, sooner than he did last time around. Recovering from his previous ACL injury, Lewis came back a bit stronger and was clocked running record speeds down the first base line. It remains to be seen how that will go after a second procedure, but his body continues to be something that matures.
Minnesota fans can expect to see Lewis play for the Saints again at some point this summer, but betting on it being a long-term thing seems relatively foolish considering how quickly he worked through the level a year ago. Character has long been off the charts for Lewis, and expecting another setback to hold him down for long doesn’t seem wise. There isn’t much left for Lewis to prove on the farm, so as soon as he’s health and producing, he’ll be donning the Twins new threads at Target Field. Feel free to discuss Royce Lewis as a prospect and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below.
Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS
Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP
Prospect #8: Jose Salas, INF
Prospect #7: Connor Prielipp, LHP
Prospect #6: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Prospect #5: Edouard Julien, 2B
Prospect #4: Marco Raya, RHP
Prospect #3: Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Prospect #2: Royce Lewis, SS
Prospect #1: Coming Tomorrow!

Yesterday, we poetically delved into the romanticism and joy that accompanies the first few days of spring training. That is appropriate; optimism is the primary characteristic of the first phase of spring training. Talking with folks on Day 1, the participants make that clear.
The Players
It’s time to shake off the rust. That starts with pitchers because they take more time to build up their arm strength. Catchers join them because nobody wants to chase the ball to the backstop after every throw. Four days later, the rest of the position players join camp, because they need less than a week to find their groove. 
Except this year, most guys are way early. It’s not totally clear why. Factors include the World Baseball Classic, optimism about the team, make-or-break years, the lack of COVID, or the fact that last year's lockdown-shortened camp. 
Whatever it is, most can’t wait. This is funny because this first part of the year has a very first-week-back-to-school feel. Players are excited to see each other again. The new kids are making friends; finding a lunch table at which to sit. 
There’s excitement in the air. Goals are fresh in mind. Some are eager to show they’re healthy. Some are eager to test whether or not their offseason workouts will pay dividends on the field. At the very least, those workouts are over. Baseball is the fun part of the season. 
Coaches
The first week of school comparison also applies to coaches, trainers, management, etc. Yes, they are also excited to reconnect with each other and players. But the teachers are also sizing up their students' potential - both for greatness and for trouble. They also get a chance to see younger players whom they have only heard about in the minors. Glimpsing the future in those newcomers fires up everyone who loves the game. 
By definition, the coaches love the game; they wouldn’t have chosen their career if they didn’t. So if you think the players are excited, you can only imagine the spring in the coaching staff’s step. 
Reporters
For reporters, this is the best part of camp, too. Players are ready to talk, partly because they’re excited, but also because we haven’t worn them down with the same questions repeatedly. So this is an opportunity to interview players, transcribe the interviews, and then tuck them away to be referenced in a future story.
The Love of the Game exhilaration applies here, too. Being a beat writer for baseball is a grind, even compared to other sports beats that grind. It’s basically every day or night, for eight months, and the opportunities often require relocating. Again, nobody who isn’t obsessed with baseball subjects themselves to that, especially for what they are paid.  
Plus - I won’t lie - the days are shorter in this phase of spring training. No afternoon games, and no trips across the state. It’s easily the best and most productive time to attend as a reporter. 
Fans
It’s the best time to attend as a fan, too, at least if your goal is to have more interaction with the players than you’re likely to ever have again.
There is a path to the practice field where the players walk early each morning and back late each morning. It has barriers to separate them from fans, but the barriers are waist high, and, as mentioned, the players are generally excited. They will often stop for selfies, autographs, high 5s, etc., especially on the way back. 
Plus, batting cages and the bullpens are both somewhat viewable as well. Want to see Jhoan Duran’s velocity up close? Or see Nick Gordon working with Torii Hunter in the batting cage? There are no guarantees but you’ll see something if you peer long enough through the fences and screens.
There is one day in particular when excitement is at its peak, and the Twins announced that today. The day after position players report, the Twins have an open house, where they open up Hammond Stadium (including concessions), have some special events (especially for kids), and provide even more chances to interact with players. This year, it’s Monday, the 20th. 
But mostly any day before games start, you’ll have access you can’t quite believe - provided you show up in the morning. Timing is the biggest obstacle to all these experiences - they happen in the morning. This is by design: Florida can get pretty hot in the afternoons. 
Players are often in the fields  By 9 AM. (Some much earlier.) they’re often back by 11 or 12.  The camp can be a ghost town in the afternoon. You’ve been warned. 
Am I trying to convince you to come to spring training? Yes. Yes, I am. If you care enough to seek out Twins news on Day 1, you probably care enough to enjoy yourself. And if you are reading this because you’re excited about watching grown men play catch, then you’re going to fit right in, right here, right now.