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Twins Video
Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/15 through Sun, 8/21
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 62-57)
Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: +25)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (1.5 GA)
Last Week's Game Results:
Game 114 | MIN 4, KC 2: Kepler and Twins Break Their Slumps
Game 115 | MIN 9, KC 0: Gray Dominates in Much-Needed Blowout
Game 116 | MIN 4, KC 0: Second Straight Shutout Seals Sweep
Game 117 | MIN 2, TEX 1: Pitchers Lead the Way Once Again
Game 118 | TEX 4, MIN 3: Lack of Clutch Hitting Leads to Late Loss
Game 119 | TEX 7, MIN 0: Twins Lifeless in Embarrassing Blowout
NEWS & NOTES
Alarms started going off immediately on Wednesday afternoon when Tyler Mahle came out throwing with noticeably diminished velocity. That's a scary sign for a key deadline acquisition who already spent weeks on the injured list this summer with shoulder issues, and sure enough, Mahle was pulled in the second inning due to what was described as soreness and fatigue in his shoulder.
After getting back clean scans, the Twins were relatively optimistic about Mahle's outlook, but he still landed on the IL and will miss at least a couple of starts. Devin Smeltzer was called up to take his spot on the roster.
In more positive news on the health front, the team seems optimistic about Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach and Kyle Garlick back in the relatively near future, with all four ramping up on the road back to MLB action. Meanwhile, Randy Dobnak tossed three scoreless innings across two appearances in the Florida Complex League, and should be taking his rehab stint to Triple-A in the coming week, barring setbacks.
A final roster move of note: On Wednesday, the Twins claimed relief pitcher Jake Jewell of waivers from Cleveland, adding him to the 40-man roster and optioning him to St. Paul. He's a 29-year-old with a 7.75 ERA in 38 ⅓ innings, but he's more interesting than those details suggest.
Jewell has been excellent at Triple-A all season. In 44 ⅓ innings for the Guardians' Triple-A affiliate, he posted a 2.49 ERA and 48-to-15 K/BB ratio with zero home runs allowed. He made his debut for St. Paul on Friday and tossed a clean inning with two strikeouts. The right-hander has a good chance of getting a shot in the Twins bullpen at some point in the last six weeks.
A fun fact about Jewell is that, according to Baseball Reference, his nickname is for some reason "Bob."
HIGHLIGHTS
It was a much-needed big week for the pitching staff, with starters bouncing back and the bullpen (mostly) locking things down. A sweep over the Royals was fueled by 26 consecutive scoreless innings, with Sonny Gray and the relief corps guiding back-to-back shutouts.
Gray was at his best on Tuesday, allowing only three singles and a walk over six innings. He struck out 10 and induced a season-high 14 swinging strikes. Gray pitched into the seventh for the first time since June, reflecting a bit of a trend for the week: Rocco Baldelli easing up on his stringent opposition to letting starters pitch deep.
One day earlier, Joe Ryan had been sent out to pitch the sixth in a circumstance where Baldelli might have otherwise turned to the bullpen. Granted, in both these cases the wisdom of the Twins' typical strategy was reaffirmed – both Gray and Ryan created dangerous situations that Caleb Thielbar had to defuse – but hopefully the showings of confidence will prove positive for these and other pitchers.
Even Chris Archer was allowed to complete five innings on Saturday, for just the fifth time in 21 starts, and he uncharacteristically talked his manager out of pulling him during a mound visit.
Luckily, turning to the bullpen wasn't as hazardous a proposition as it was the week prior. Prior to Sunday's lackluster performance from Trevor Megill and Emilio Pagán, Twins relievers had combined for to allow just two earned runs in 22 innings (0.82 ERA), with a 24-to-5 K/BB ratio and no home runs allowed. Thielbar was a huge factor with his fireman outings, and as usual Jhoan Durán was lights-out, firing three scoreless frames with five strikeouts, no walks, and two singles allowed.
Speaking of standout rookies who keep on getting it done (and then some), José Miranda was once again a driving force in the lineup, finishing 8-for-19 with two home runs and six RBIs. I feel like I've been mentioning Miranda in the "Highlights" section of this column every week for the past three months or so, which speaks to the incredible consistency of his impact.
LOWLIGHTS
Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are having fine seasons, but the inconsistency of this offense as a whole feels strongly tied to the inability of each to deliver hits in timely spots. This severe weakness of the lineup was on full display Saturday night, when the bats went 1-for-10 with RISP en route to a 4-2 loss in 10 innings, with Buxton and Correa combining to go 0-for-4.
The game left Buxton with a .145/.270/.355 RISP slash line, and Correa .227/.322/.280. The Twins need more opportunistic hitting out of these players who are critical to their chances at rallying for a division title; since the start of July, both are in the negative for Win Probability Added. In fact, over the past two months, Buxton's WPA is lower than any Twin sans Tim Beckham, Kyle Garlick, Jake Cave, and Max Kepler.
The name that stands out in that list of negative difference-makers is of course Kepler, who is supposed to be a cornerstone fixture. His once-promising season is tanking and steering toward being one of his worst as a big-leaguer. The patience he showed early on (13.5% walk rate through July 4th) has evaporated (4.2% since), along with his power (1 HR in his past 31 games).
These are big problems because Kepler's staggering BABIP woes have once again taken center stage: he has a .118 average on balls in play since the All-Star break, dropping his mark on the season to .244, which is right on par with his dreadful career norm (.247).
Kepler is playing through a broken pinky toe, which earns him a bit of grace, as does the fact that Baldelli has had no choice but to run him out against a bunch of lefty pitchers lately. But frankly this is all nothing new. Kepler's continual lack of evolution as a hitter is frustrating and tiresome.
When your starting right fielder is producing at the same level as your backup catcher (Kepler's OPS is now almost identical to that of Gary Sánchez) it's a big problem.
TRENDING STORYLINE
Mahle was lined up to pitch the series opener in Houston on Tuesday, but now he won't. It's unclear who will be taking his place, but the decision looms fairly large amidst a tight division race and against one of the league's most dangerous lineups.
Mercifully, the replacement won't be Smeltzer, who tossed three innings in relief Archer on Saturday night. The other obvious options – Aaron Sanchez, Cole Sands, a bullpen game – aren't too much more appealing. Simeon Woods Richardson is also not available, having started for St. Paul on Sunday, but fellow recently-promoted Saint Louie Varland could theoretically be in play.
One thing is for sure: the Twins need to run out someone they feel can give them a remote chance against Justin Verlander and Houston's powerhouse offense.
LOOKING AHEAD
The three-game series in Houston is probably the most difficult remaining on the Twins schedule, and unfortunately they will be throwing the worst of their rotation at the Astros, with whoever replaces Mahle on Tuesday to be followed by Dylan Bundy and Archer.
This intensifies the urgency of getting a win on Monday behind Gray and salvage a split in the series finale against Texas.
MONDAY, 8/22: RANGERS @ TWINS – LHP Cole Ragans v. RHP Sonny Gray
TUESDAY, 8/23: TWINS @ ASTROS – TBD v. RHP Justin Verlander
WEDNESDAY, 8/24: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. LHP Framber Valdez
THURSDAY, 8/25: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Luis Garcia
FRIDAY, 8/26: GIANTS @ TWINS – LHP Alex Wood v. RHP Joe Ryan
SATURDAY, 8/27: GIANTS @ TWINS – RHP Alex Cobb v. RHP Sonny Gray
SUNDAY, 8/28: GIANTS @ TWINS – RHP Jakob Junis v. TBD
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