The Twins Face a Deceivingly Complicated Decision at the Trade Deadline

I think the general consensus is pretty clear. Almost no one here really thinks the Twins can win the Series this year. Again, only one team can win it all. But competing for it is better than not competing for it. Twins haven't won a playoff game since Lincoln was President, I get that, but every year they go to the dance, at least they have a shot. One day, they WILL win a game or a series or two.

If they were buried in last place, this whole discussion would probably be moot. The fact that they have stumbled their way to the top, in a weak division, at least allows for the fun at the ballpark. I don't want them to mortgage the farm just to 'sneak in' this year. I don't think anyone does. OTOH, I also don't want them to take the position that this season doesn't matter either. Its an interesting balance that the FO has to deal with.

Let's see where it all goes.

Such great opinions across the board and I've liked and disagreed with points on both sides of the aisle. Before going any further, I just have to address the sudden elephant in the debate concerning the pipeline.

Absolutely, no doubt injuries and whatnot have affected many of the Twins prime arms this year. And I'm not going to blow any smoke that will cover the stench of disappointment. Has 2020 still hand a lingering affect? Possibly, at least for some. And I'm thinking Canterino and Balazovic as possibles. Is SWR, now out with injury, suffering from youth as well as an interrupted 2021 despite an early good start? I'd say yes. Anyone who is disappointed in Enlow while coming back from his TJ is misguided, as far as I'm concerned. And it's not being overly optimistic to state that for some of these arms, finishing the year the best they can, going through the fall developmental season, and a fresh start to 2023 could make a big difference. Stink for NOW though!

Doesn't matter if Jax either never had a chance due to stuff or his delayed progression early on, the fact is he's part of the pipeline and has the look of a quality RP going forward. How good remains to  be seen. Duran looks awesome and I've been impressed by Winder, for the most part, and believe he's only going to get better. Other than being a rookie of the year contender, how much better could you have really hoped for, especially having his year interrupted by an injury and bouncing around? Moran is NOT a finished product, but he's actually flashed and thrown up better numbers at the ML level than at AAA. How about he sticks around for a while in lower level situations and see what he does? I think this team has really missed Ober a lot. He was a huge surprise in 2021 and only got better as his rookie season went along. He was looking good before his groin injury. Again, I think the team has really missed him. And if you want to split fine hairs, the "pipeline" has allowed pre-injury Dobnak to give huge aid in 2020 and Smeltzer pretty much saved the Twins for about a month plus this season. As far as Ryan goes, both sides are right. The Twins didn't draft him, but they got him as a milb SP. They gave him his first shot, and have continued to develop him. He's a Twin now, and in the Twins system, so everyone wins and everyone is right.

(Heavy sigh)

Back to the OP.

However you want to brand the 2022 Twins...your choice...they are competitive and fun and NOT the losing 2021 version. They are in 1st place in the ALC and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. If I'm correct, winning the ALC, no matter how down it may or may not be, they get the first 3 playoff games at home. We can complain all we want about "good" vs "great" but getting a shot is the most important thing! Period! Anything can happen at that point! (Would you rather be losing?).

What this team needs, and has needed for a month and a half after duct tape and bailing wire held things together is BULLPEN HELP. And I, and hopefully everyone, can now just stop all the previous angst and frustration and debates and just concentrate on the next couple of weeks. I am bemused, frustrated and confused by all the BP trade options and the potential cost. I understand the playoffs have been expanded, but with July half over, how many teams are REALLY in contention to the point they aren't going to listen? 

I keep referring to 2019 when the Twins traded a couple late 30-ish prospects and a few low A prospects for solid, veteran, previously proven rental arms in Romo and Dyson. Romo did so well he was worthy of being brought back in 2020. A HEALTHY Dyson would have been as good or even better get, and maybe also a nice re-sign. (No need to rehash his injury or what happened later). In 4yrs, has the cost for a pair of rental RP  climbed so high it takes top 20 prospects? And it smarter to spend prospect capital to acquire a pair of RP with control when history has shown its probably the most volatile position in all of MLB? 

If the FO can somehow bring in a pair of high quality BP arms for more than a year without giving up too much, good for them! Kudos! But reality says they're just not going to do that. I'm not sure what team would. They need to do another 2019 inexpensive trade where the other team gets a couple "nice" pieces before they lose what they have and don't need. If the Twins fall in to a deal for an extended contract arm that doesn't cost too much, the DO IT, 

You also have to remember that any rentals the Twins trade for could be re-signed, right? You also have to remember that despite arms on hand, they will also have massive payroll $ to spend to add a RP or two, finally NOT ignoring the BP importance, with Correa gone. And even if he would somehow stay, there will STILL be some $ to spend.

Rotation help?

Sorry, but I agree with chpettit19, it's questionable if the Twins have what it takes to bring in a difference maker. I AGREE with making additions! But what do you have to give up for 1 1/2 years of a rotation piece? Wallner or Larnach? I'd like to keep Larnach, but I think Wallner could be a nice replacement. Martin could be, IMO , the  next Alex Gordon if allowed to just play the OF moving forward. Ober is good, Balazovic could be great if someone believes. What does it take to make a deal for 1 1/2 years of a SP?

If someone is wiling to offer up a 4-1 deal, let's say the Marlins, for a combination of 4 top 10-30 prospects, I'm listening. Balazovic, Wallner, Steer and MAYBE Canterino. I'm at least listening. 

But I'm NOT trading from my 26-ish roster. I'm going with what I have and focusing on pen additions and trusting in what I have. 

The Twins need an impactful trade. If they are not able to get a front line pitcher or reliable back end relievers there is no reason to trade prospects. They should trade veterans who are not of their future.

9 hours ago, insagt1 said:

very interesting discussion for sure. There have always been two schools: one says if you are winning, try to win. The other says always look to the future--even if the future never arrives and never be satisfied.

In pro sports, winning is always more important and more fun than losing. Making post season is always more exciting for fans than saying, well we have a 5 year plan (that might never work). People buy tickets NOW, to watch the team NOW. So if you have a shot, you take it. Gretzky always said 100% of the shots you never take aren't goals. You don't miss out on getting to the dance just because the other participants are better. There can only be one world series winner...that means everyone else didn't win, but they competed.

I am and have been leery for years about these '5 year plans'.. which to me often mean an excuse in case they don't work.

Bird in the hand. It may only be a sparrow, but would Twins fans trade places with the Nationals, or Royals, or A's? How much fun were the games after the ASG last year for Twins fans? They were meaningless.

I absolutely hate what has happened to pitching in baseball. suddenly before our eyes, the starting pitcher has become obsolete. For over a century this was never a problem, Why now can a starter not go more than 4 innings. Why are pitchers removed from games where they are pitching no-hitters? That folks...NEVER happened in years past. So what we have is a gassed, worn out bullpen, along with starters who just can't do their jobs. Twins need pitching, ANY kind of pitching. They need someone who can shut the game down in the 9th. (they have no one) They need starters who know when handed the ball that they will be out there 6 or 7 innings, minimally.

Whatever they can do in the next couple weeks to keep the team competitive will be good. No point in saying 'wait till next year' when this  year is still on the table, right?

In my short wish list I would like to see Sano traded (or released...there is no room for him); I want Correa and Buxton to play like superstars again. (they haven't) I'd like to Arraez win the batting title. I'd like to see Polo and Kepler have better 2nd halves. And I want the Twins to compete with Cleveland and Chicago right to the end.

Spot on.

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What moves do you think they can make between now and Aug 2 that makes them contenders this year? Again, I want them to make trades in the next 2 weeks. I am openly stating I think they need to make trades before the deadline to improve. I'm not arguing that point. My point is they don't have the pieces to make the high impact trades people want. Unless they're taking away from the players currently on the major league roster which then just moves the hole and doesn't make the team better overall. Bringing in Castillo but shipping Miranda out doesn't make them contenders. I'm saying they don't have good enough prospects to outbid teams for the big guns people want. What they can get is expiring contract relievers, and I think they should, and will, make those moves. I'm not saying "shouldn't" I'm saying "can't." I'm saying they don't have the ability to make big moves at the deadline whether they want to or not.

Keeping the SS they have now is one of the options moving forward, and I hope they find a 7 year deal to keep him here. That could be part of the 60M I mentioned. They'd still have 30M left to spend after that. I'm not at all, in any of my comments, saying they should do nothing. They need to bring in more relievers, and I think they will. They're not trading Lewis, just like the Padres wouldn't trade Abrams last year and the Yankees have refused to trade Volpe. Outside of Lewis they don't have anyone in their system that is bringing back anyone who'd be seen as a "go for it" move. Outside of bringing in relievers, my stance is they simply can't do what people are asking them to do. They don't have the top end prospects to get it done. I don't think Steer and Wallner are bringing back Castillo or Montas types.

They've graduated the bulk of the current wave of prospects and seen the rest of them falter and thus lose trade value so the system doesn't have much at the top. The highest ceiling prospects the Twins have are all in A ball or below. Those types of fliers don't get the kind of return that AA and AAA high ceiling prospects do. The Twins are at the point in their cycle that their best path to improving the roster is through spending to surround the young core with veterans. I'm not saying they ignore this season to play for the future by choice, I'm saying they likely have to do it by necessity. 

The Mets have built through offseason trades and big spending on FAs. They're not a great example for the type of moves you're asking for. They did trade for Baez last year by giving up a prospect in the range I'm saying the Twins don't have (worse than Lewis, better than Steer/Wallner). But otherwise I don't see the connection here unless you're holding out hope the Pohlads suddenly start spending like Cohen. I wouldn't suggest holding your breath on that one.

Trust me, I am not holding my breath.    When I mentioned the Mets I was simply thinking they are a team that is always on the move in one way or another.  Not always successful, and sometimes they spend far too much, but they are always trying to put together a better team than they have today.  And they are trying to do it today.  That is what I long for in this team.  You could say the same for Boston.  Or the Yankees, and so on.........

My ultimate fear is you may be right about the whole thing.  And if you are, we need to make significant changes from the top on down.  Because if, after 5 plus years of trading for prospects and drafting what they believe are good players for the future, we don't have enough high end prospects to make some bold moves, what could possibly make us think we will ever?  The same management that has put us in the position you lay out above is the team that we are counting on to lift us higher in the coming year(s)?  You say, and possibly rightfully so, that we have graduated the guys in the system that have what is needed, and there just isn't anybody left of that caliber to entice other teams to want them.  If the cupboards are that bare in our system, that our best prospect is a 23 year old who has had career threatening injuries to his knee not once, but twice, then I guess what you see is what you get.  Grab a couple of relief rentals and hope for the best.  But the bulk of this pitching staff simply isn't good enough to compete with the teams we will see in the playoffs; hell, they aren't as good as Cleveland.  Our line up is pretty good, and I hope we find a way to keep it, but we haven't brought in top end pitching in FA as of yet, so high end trades need to be an option.  And if there is no one in our system that is tradable, then I guess we better get used to the Bundy's, Archers, Smiths, Cottons, etc., etc., because that is who we are willing to sign.  Someone here talked about the difference between competitive and contender.  I hope we are willing to settle for competitive then, and we better hope our division doesn't get any better.  If this is the pinnacle of the 5 year plan, we not only need a new plan, we need a new planner.  

You go all in, or you stay. 

Castillo, Montas,Puk, and Nelly. And a couple other key parts.

Or... nothing. Do not go in between.

14 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

2019 Nationals reached the playoffs via wildcard

2014 Giants reached the playoffs via wildcard

2014 Royals reached the playoffs via wildcard (Woulda won it if wasn't for the other wild card team) 

2011 Cardinals reached the playoffs via wildcard

2004 Red Sox reached the playoffs via wildcard

2003 Marlins reached the playoffs via wildcard

2002 Angels reached the playoffs via wildcard

If All things were equal... 6 division winners and 2 wildcard teams (Not including the 1 game playoff that includes an extra wild card team to determine who the wild card representative is) The Wildcard team has a 25% chance of winning the world series based on two teams being wild card out of 8 participants.

The Wild Card has produced 6 world series winners over 20 years for a 30% success ratio. 

I love ya... But I have no idea what you are talking about when you use the word "Favorites".  

 

There is no doubt many teams throughout history have turned around season.  These are good examples.  However, the question is not can a team come on strong and do well in the playoffs.  The question is which teams accomplished this by acquiring the high end starting and relief pitching as being suggested here.  Therefore, this list could just as well illustrate teams that stood pat or made trades that required only mid-tier prospects.  

Was Nelson Cruz a good investment for the Rays last year?  Even Scherzer did little to advance the Dodgers.  Was Escobar 's impact worth Jhoan Duran.  Clevinger did nothing for SanDiego (injury) and that cost them Miller / Naylor and Quantrill.  Texas got a few innings out of Kluber (injury) and that cost them Clause.  Samardzija's bombed at that cost Oakland Semien and Bassit.  Of course, we all know about Tatis Jr for Shields.  Trading long-term assets for short-term assets has far more potential for the team getting long-term assets.

20 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Again: no one is denying that they should (and will) get pitching help. The complicated question being addressed is how aggressive they should be and how much they should be willing to sacrifice to improve their chances this year.

As for Jeffers, he ranks second to Polanco in OPS at the past month at 868. Meanwhile Gary Sanchez is at 578 during that span and Caleb Hamilton has never played in the majors. Not to mention the extreme defensive drop-off. You are underrating the severity of this loss.

So Jeffers took an errant bullpen pitch to his throwing hand, played 2 weeks with a small fracture and swollen thumb tendon: hit over .300 in that stretch and threw out a couple of runners to boot.  He is definitely a key component of the youth we have on this team.  Will he ever hit .250-.275, possibly but he gives the team and Mgmt what they want.  Tough break that he got hurt.  Sounds like his surgery went well yesterday.

11 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Because this year's reality, frankly, sucks. We have a highly flawed team that is nigh-on impossible to de-flaw. Because we have at least three juggernaut teams to contend with if we even make the postseason. Because the possibilities of the next few years, while not "sure to be there", are still significantly more likely to produce a World Champion than this year's reality. Because trading away the future of the franchise for maybe a couple more postseason wins this year should be a fireable offense.

So we'll just have to agree to disagree about me being right and you being wrong.???

What is going to make next year or any other year better than this year? Just about all of next years team is set. AK, Polanco, SS(Lewis or fill in till he is 100%), Miranda, Laranch, Buxton, Kepler, Jeffers (basically the same lineup minus Correa. The rotation is basically set Gray, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Maeda/Paddock/Dobnack, and dang near the bullpen as well. So even if by some miracle they sign a Musgrave isn't next years team basically the same, not good enough to compete? So at this time next year the same reasons for not doing anything will be happening? On top of maybe Detroit, Cleveland and the White Sox don't crap the bed at the beginning of the year and basically give the Twins the chance to run away with the division.

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

In support of your point... I could also come up with examples (plural) of teams who bought at the deadline and went straight into the crapper short term after the purchasing and I could come up with examples of teams who sold at the deadline and became difficult to beat short term in August and September. 

There are no guarantees in baseball. We could pay the prospect price and acquire Castillo.

Advocates of this deal see the Ace they long for. The Mind's Eye imagines Castillo matching up against Cole and now the Twins have a chance and they feel better. The mind's eye does not consider the possibility of Castillo getting lit up in the 1st inning... The mind's eye does not consider the possibility of Cole getting lit up in the 1st inning. Nobody in July thinks Yu Darvish will pitch like Yu Darvish did in October when they acquire Yu Darvish. There are no guarantees in baseball.  

However, there is balance on the other side of the ledger. There is a long list of acquired prospects who ended up just eating minor league food on the bus to Greenville. 

This team is in first place. It is in contention. You can't look at this bullpen and not attempt to make it better. 

 

Agree completely and I have been an advocate of addressing the BP.  This is a matter of degree.  I differ with those who want the top SP available and a couple of RPs and maybe a catcher too.  It's one thing to trade Steer for a good RP and I am sure you agree it's another to pay the price required for Castillo, Contreras and a couple RPs   

28 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I think it's important to point out that this discussion isn't just North and South Pole. There is an entire globe in between the extreme reactions. There are levels of improvement between acquiring Juan Soto and picking up help off the waiver wire. 

When I say buy... that doesn't mean I'm saying drain the farm to get it done. 

I'd love to have Soto... who wouldn't. However... that type of acquisition would almost require a farm system reset to get it done. 

There are other options that will improve this team with a lesser price tag.

However, being a buyer always comes with a price tag.      

 

What I heard was drain the farm system for 2 1/2 years of Soto. ?

4 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

 I differ with those who want the top SP available and a couple of RPs and maybe a catcher too.  It's one thing to trade Steer for a good RP and I am sure you agree it's another to pay the price required for Castillo, Contreras and a couple RPs   

 

Well those people completely under estimate what the Twins have to trade, IMO to get a top SP (Cin/Oak) it will take two guys offer the major league roster (Ober and Larnach/AK/Mirana for example) or Lewis because the Twins just don't have the prospect capital to pull this off without offering four or five prospects. I am always for trading prospects for top guys, but this year the Twins just don't have that ability IMO. If the Twins top prospects were pitching like Romero, Gonzo, and Graterol did a few years back, I would say trade a SWR, Balazovic, Canterion, Henriquez, Varland, Sands and a Steer/Wallner for a top starting pitcher, but sadly this just isn't the case this year (it might take all those guys to get it done)

Looking back at the last few trade deadlines, guys like Robertson and Bard, shouldn't cost all that much, but unless the Twins are willing to overpay it isn't going to happen until the last possible minute while those team push for all they can get.

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

There is no doubt many teams throughout history have turned around season.  These are good examples.  However, the question is not can a team come on strong and do well in the playoffs.  The question is which teams accomplished this by acquiring the high end starting and relief pitching as being suggested here.  Therefore, this list could just as well illustrate teams that stood pat or made trades that required only mid-tier prospects.  

Was Nelson Cruz a good investment for the Rays last year?  Even Scherzer did little to advance the Dodgers.  Was Escobar 's impact worth Jhoan Duran.  Clevinger did nothing for SanDiego (injury) and that cost them Miller / Naylor and Quantrill.  Texas got a few innings out of Kluber (injury) and that cost them Clause.  Samardzija's bombed at that cost Oakland Semien and Bassit.  Of course, we all know about Tatis Jr for Shields.  Trading long-term assets for short-term assets has far more potential for the team getting long-term assets.

Far more potential?  For every example such as the ones above you could name multiple examples of getting long-term prospects that never see a major league field.  In previous articles about the '17 and '18 deadline trades it was noted we traded away major league assets and received 12 prospects total in return.  Only 4 are left, and one of them is on the 60 day IL.  The other 8 spent very little time or no time at all on the roster.  And that is true across the board in baseball.  Would Escobar have helped down the stretch in '18?  Would Pressley have helped that year and maybe further?  We traded away the chance of making that year better for the prospect of making the years after that better, IF the prospects we got panned out.  A handful did; the rest not so much.  If we take the long term view all the time, the 5th year of the 5 year plan never comes.  When is it time to reverse "17 and "18 and go for now?  If ever, wouldn't now be as good as any?  And if not, then what we see is what we get, not only now but the distant future.  

16 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Here's the part where I obligatorily remind people that the Twins played three playoff series with Johan Santana as their #1 starter and won zero of them. 

While the Twins may not have won a playoff series with Santana, Johan Santana pitched in 2004 when the Twins won their last playoff game.

also, the Twins scored 4 runs in game 1 vs the Yankees in 2019. Maybe Cron doesn't commit that error at 1B with Syndergaard pitching and the Twins win game 1. Not that it matters because everything can change based on in game action, luck, etc. Maybe Berrios pitches lights out in game 2 and the Twins win instead of having Dobnak shelled the way he was. Now the Twins are up 2-0... It's entirely conceivable that series goes different with the Twins anchored by Syndergaard. It's not like Buxton had any impact on the 2019 series since he was *feign surprise* hurt anyway.

Based on your response why do you even care about Buxton in the first place? By your logic, he's a colossal waste of money anyway since the Twins are destined to win the same number of games regardless of who is on the field. There's no point in spending a single dollar more than MLB minimum on anybody. 

Maeda should go to bullpen, he succeeded in that role with the Dodgers, and keeps his pitch count down as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Hopefully, Alcala is healthy and can contribute, but what everyone is overlooking us Jordan Balazovic in the minors. HE could be the perfect 2nd half relief arm we need. He too, needs to keep pitch counts down, and high leverage reliever may be his future in long run anyway, given his injury history. Get Mahle and/or Montas, two guys who can throw innings as starters. Sets up bullpen for less innings, better performances. Add the injury activations and Balazovi, that's a good pitching corps.

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They won the division two of the last three years. How many good years do they need before they aren't stumbling to success?

If we knew that, we would be running the team!! We'll get there one day

I am not sure Verlander counts as Houston was doing well and would have made a strong run without him. He was 5-0 in his 5 starts down the stretch as well as ALCS MVP. Do they make it by the Yankees without him?

6 hours ago, Mark G said:

Far more potential?  For every example such as the ones above you could name multiple examples of getting long-term prospects that never see a major league field.  In previous articles about the '17 and '18 deadline trades it was noted we traded away major league assets and received 12 prospects total in return.  Only 4 are left, and one of them is on the 60 day IL.  The other 8 spent very little time or no time at all on the roster.  And that is true across the board in baseball.  Would Escobar have helped down the stretch in '18?  Would Pressley have helped that year and maybe further?  We traded away the chance of making that year better for the prospect of making the years after that better, IF the prospects we got panned out.  A handful did; the rest not so much.  If we take the long term view all the time, the 5th year of the 5 year plan never comes.  When is it time to reverse "17 and "18 and go for now?  If ever, wouldn't now be as good as any?  And if not, then what we see is what we get, not only now but the distant future.  

There are endless examples of trades or free agent signings of highly regarded players that have failed.  That does not in in itself mean the strategy is better or worse than another strategy.   The question we should be asking is how have mid market teams with 90+ win been constructed.  That is arguably the only relevant outcome that should interest us.  Were the most productive players Drafted / Intl Signings / Free Agents / Traded for as prospects or were prospects traded for established players.  We can easily loojk up any successful team on Fangraphs/

I have put substantial effort into understanding how mid and small market teams have acquired their high contribution players.  Have you actually studied these teams or are you assuming you have the answers because something make sense to you intuitively.  Go to Fangraphs and look at any of the playoff teams built by teams with equal or less revenue to the Twins.  Count how many were drafted or acquired as prospects.  In almost every case  85-90% of the players over 1.5 WAR were drafted or prospects acquired by trading established players like Escobar / Pressly / Clevinger / Kluber / Sale / Eaton, etc.  5-10% or modest price free agents.  Elite free agents and established players acquired in trade are 5% on average.