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As detailed in our "Future of Shortstop" chapter of the Offseason Handbook (now available for Caretakers to download!), there are four big names on the shortstop free agency market this offseason, and it's likely the Twins won't land any of them.
In fact, if the front office believes their shortstop of the future is already in the organization, they might not even seriously pursue any of them.
Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson are all going to get long-term deals worth more than $100 million. The free agent pool drops off severely after those four players, to the point that it might make more sense to trade for a short-term plug in search of a little more impact.
Yesterday, Matt Braun highlighted three under-the-radar trade targets. While I could definitely see the Twins getting creative and going after any one of those names, the following trio of shortstops strike me as more straightforward and likely options – each distinctly appealing to the Twins for different, yet similar, reasons.
These are the more "on the radar" shortstop trade targets.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, New York Yankees
As we all remember (who could forget?!), Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for about a day or so, between the time he was acquired from Texas and then traded to the Yankees. The Twins were adamant at the time they didn't deal for IKF with the intention of immediately flipping him. They liked him.
If they liked him then, there's not much reason to think they don't like him now. He had a customary season in New York, rating well defensively while not hitting much. Kiner-Falefa experienced the brunt of Yankee fan vitriol and was benched in key late-season situations. It's safe to say both parties are ready to move on.
With one season of arbitration remaining and a mediocre showing in his most recent campaign, Kiner-Falefa will surely cost less to acquire than a year ago, when the Twins gave up two seasons of Mitch Garver.
If the Twins are planning to usher Royce Lewis back in as shortstop midway through the season, IKF would make a lot of sense as an interim plug, capable of moving off shortstop and handling other positions like third, where he's got a Gold Glove under his belt.
Nick Ahmed, Arizona Diamondbacks
If the Twins want to shoot a bit higher than Kiner-Falefa, who'd be a logical albeit uninspiring fit, they could turn their attention to Ahmed. He's not without his own risk and downside, though.
Ahmed is akin to Kiner-Falefa in that he specializes with the glove and doesn't offer much with the bat. His defensive strength, however, has been much stronger. Ahmed won Gold Gloves at shortstop in 2018 and 2019, and was a three-win player both years based entirely on defensive value.
He had an especially brutal offensive season in 2021, and then missed almost all of 2022 due to shoulder surgery, so his stock is definitely down. Ahmed is expected to be a full go next spring, with one year and $10.4 million remaining on his contract. By trading for him, you'd be banking on him regaining his elite defensive impact at age 33, coming off major surgery on his throwing shoulder, but it's not a bad bet.
Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants
Next season, Crawford will be 36 and earning $16 million in the last year of his contract. The age, combined with a very unproductive 2022 campaign at the plate (.231/.308/.344, 9 HR in 118 games), detracts from his appeal.
However, just one year ago, in 2021, Crawford as an All-Star and MVP contender. He posted 6.3 fWAR, launching 24 home runs with an .895 OPS while winning a Gold Glove. He was, basically, the best version of Carlos Correa. That upside, however faint, makes Crawford interesting, especially when coupled with his floor as an experienced vet with a good glove and expiring contract.
I recognize that none of these players are very exciting based on what they did in 2022. But they all have common traits that make them great fits for the Twins -- assuming the team is intent on keeping for the door open for one of their prospects to take over at shortstop. All three are veterans with reliably good gloves, varying levels of legitimate upside, and one-year contract commitments. They're also all in relative buy-low situations, which Minnesota's value-minded front office is sure to favor.
Trading for one of these players would enable the Twins to confidently address their 2023 shortstop opening while reserving resources to make bigger splashes in other areas.
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