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  • Is Now the Right Time for a Royce Lewis Extension?


    Nick Nelson

    The former No. 1 overall draft pick faces an uncertain road ahead coming off back-to-back major knee injuries. 

    The Twins are in position to alleviate that uncertainty with the security of a long-term deal. Is there a framework that makes sense for both sides?

    Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports

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    Last week at The Athletic, Dan Hayes wrote a great story about Chris Paddack and why the right-hander was open to a three-year contract extension with the Twins as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. On the surface, the $12.5 million pact seems immensely team-friendly, locking him down at $2.5 million in 2024 -- when he will ostensibly be back to full health -- and buying out his first free agent year for a mere $7.5 million.

    If Paddack, who recently turned 27, can return to pitching anywhere near the level he was at prior to surgery, he'll be an incredible bargain and an ultra-valuable asset for the rotation in 2024/25. But that can't be safely assumed coming off a second TJ surgery, and he gets it.

    “I’m always kind of gambling on myself,” he told Hayes. “If this was my first one, maybe we’re talking just a one- or two-year deal with risk and gambling on myself going into my contract year. But this is something I couldn’t pass up, man. It’s a win-win for me."

    Which brings us to Royce Lewis, who is facing his own version of Paddack's journey, and happens to have the same agent (Scott Boras).

    Lewis is rehabbing from a second consecutive tear of the same right ACL. His odds of returning to the field as an impact player are probably much higher than Paddack's, given the murky history of double-TJ pitchers, but the risks of going through this ordeal cannot be downplayed, especially for a player whose game is based on springy athleticism.  

    Of course, the Twins' No. 2 prospect is in a very different situation career-wise compared to Paddack. By virtue of MLB's service system, Minnesota controls Lewis' rights for the next six years, including at a league-minimum salary for the next three. 

    Many teams have exercised their leverage in this position to work out long-term contracts with highly touted young players who've barely played in the majors, if at all. (The Rays have become famous for it and the Braves just did it with Michael Harris II.)

    In the case of Harris, Atlanta locked down the 21-year-old outfielder for eight years and $72 million last August, midway through a Rookie of the Year debut. The contract buys out his first two free agency years with a pair of team options after that. Here's how it shakes out: 

    • 2023: $5 million
    • 2024: $5 million
    • 2025: $8 million
    • 2026: $8 million
    • 2027: $9 million
    • 2028: $10 million
    • 2029: $10 million
    • 2030: $12 million
    • 2031: $15 million club option ($5 million buyout)
    • 2032: $20 million club option ($5 million buyout)

    The big draw for Harris in this arrangement, aside from the ultimate security of guaranteeing himself $72 million, is the elevation of his income in the next few years. Rather than earning the league minimum each year in 2023-25, he'll make $18 million total over those campaigns. 

    Compared to Harris, Lewis obviously has a lot less bargaining power at the moment. He's three years older. He briefly debuted in the majors and looked good, but didn't make nearly so emphatic and convincing a statement as Harris. And of course, there's the knee injuries.

    Still, Harris contract might provide a helpful framework for thinking about a Lewis extension that makes sense for both sides: increased pre-arb paydays, as part of a total sum of guaranteed money that assures generational wealth, in return for cost-controlled years of arbitration and free agency, plus the flexibility of some team options at the back end.

    The proposal below amounts to roughly a seven-year, $34 million contract, buying out one year of free agency with an additional two team options on the back end (not entirely dissimilar from the extensions given to Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, albeit further along in their development):

    • 2023: $1M
    • 2024: $3M
    • 2025: $3M
    • 2026: $5M
    • 2027: $5M
    • 2028: $7M
    • 2029: $10M
    • 2030: $12M team option ($1M buyout)
    • 2031: $15M team option ($1M buyout)

    For the Twins, the incentive here is obvious -- adding a star-caliber talent in Lewis to the entrenched long-term core alongside Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa -- with cost certainty that fits nicely alongside their progressive salary allocations. (Notably, by the time Lewis reaches even a $10 million salary in this framework, Correa would already be into his option years with declining salaries.)

    The team downside is nominal: if Lewis completely fails to make it back and pan out as an effective MLB player, the Twins would be on the hook for a total sum of money slightly below Correa's 2023 salary. 

    For Lewis, the incentive also should be obvious, but it might not be quite enough. Very possibly, he's inclined to bet on himself and aim for bigger paydays, especially if he's feeling really good at this stage of his recovery. No one would begrudge him. 

    At the same time, should anyone be surprised if he and Boras are open to this kind of extension? Not only has Lewis seen his outlook become shrouded in doubt by two straight freak injuries to the same knee, but at a higher level, he's experienced the way this game can cruelly take things away from you, in ways that are completely out of your control. For what it's worth, he also seems to genuinely enjoy being a part of this organization, which could factor as well.

    If Lewis is looking for long-term security, the Twins should be welcoming that conversation with open arms. Even if the terms above are not agreeable, there's a lot of room for flexibility to still find a framework that makes a ton of sense for both sides.

     

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    This is what smart teams do.  Showing faith and support for Lewis to blossom could reap huge dividends for the Twins.  I think this kid will be a star and look forward to many seasons watching him play for the Twins.  Identify your BEST young players and keep them.    

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      On 2/22/2023 at 4:23 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

    This is what smart teams do.  Showing faith and support for Lewis to blossom could reap huge dividends for the Twins.  I think this kid will be a star and look forward to many seasons watching him play for the Twins.  Identify your BEST young players and keep them.    

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    Are there teams that have extended a 24 year old with very limited experience and twice had ACL surgery? I have been looking for extensions for "young players" and haven't seen many at age 24 let alone his injury history. I am sure I have missed players, anybody have a list?

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      On 2/22/2023 at 2:46 AM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

    2mil over the next 3 seasons is league minimum, what the team HAS to pay him. But if he performs and is healthy in good faith the team likely gives him a fair raise over that minimum. Same with year 3. Decent players are getting 3 mil in their 3rd seasons. So with your offer of 7mil in those first 3 seasons if he performs well he'd likely gain nothing, or very little. But as you say it is a guarantee.

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    Come again? Are you saying teams optionally choose to pay $3M to pre-arb players who are slated to make the league minimum salary? That doesn't happen.

      Quote

    As for his arb seasons, Vlad Guerrero is getting over 14 mil in this his 1st arb season, I believe. So if Lewis is the player that was argued about being the top Twin prospect this year then he should easily make 40mil through arb. 13mil avg. You're offering him less than half.

    The 3 FA seasons you offer him 37mil. He'd get in excess of 90-100 mil if he's the player you predict him to be. No way he'd even consider your offer. Unless he knew he was toast because of that knee. He would stand to lose 85mil with your offer, actually worse because losing those 3 FA seasons would knock down his FA contract as an older player. Very likely. I doubt he does become this player, because of that kne. I hope I'm wrong.

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    Yall are really exaggerating the likelihood of these outcomes. Royce Lewis is not Vlad Jr and he's not Juan Soto. Come on. Him getting $90-100M in his first 3 FA seasons would be an extreme best-case scenario, even if not for the knee injuries. It's incumbent on a player and his agent to be a little more realistic and grounded. 

    I'd love to hear all the same arguments here being applied to Michael Harris, btw! There's a reason I used his example in the article. You can't say "No player would ever do this" when we have a pretty comparable example from 6 months ago. By your estimates Harris has probably cost himself tens of millions down the line but there's a give and take with the increased amount he's guaranteeing himself up until then.

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      On 2/22/2023 at 4:44 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

    Are there teams that have extended a 24 year old with very limited experience and twice had ACL surgery? I have been looking for extensions for "young players" and haven't seen many at age 24 let alone his injury history. I am sure I have missed players, anybody have a list?

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    I think they were talking about the general concept as opposed to the specific situation. Show faith in the players you believe in, do right by them, and you'll be rewarded. It's an approach that's legitimately paid dividends for them.

    You're right that this scenario is somewhat unique, but the Twins love to talk about getting creative!

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    I agree with most of you that this would be a good idea and be a win-win for both the team and the player.

    I know many also say this is low end pay for Lewis, but think about if they had done this type of contract with Arreaz with how bad his knees were getting.  They'd have been locked in for several years with a player struggling to stay on the field given his regression.  The same could be said if they had done this with Kirilloff and his wrist ended up being toast this year.

    A low base with incentives to protect the team while rewarding the player with higher pay in the early years is the balance that the team and agent need to strive for.  It truly must be win-win with both parties happy with the outcome.

    BTW... I truly believe that the Buxton deal is a win-win.

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      On 2/22/2023 at 4:44 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

    This is what smart teams do.

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      On 2/22/2023 at 5:10 PM, Nick Nelson said:

    I think they were talking about the general concept as opposed to the specific situation.

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    I hear what you are saying, and I totally get the concept, but I was replying to "this is what smart teams do", and I have looked and haven't seen many teams buying out guys into their early 30's, they generally do it when a guy comes up really young, and want to keep him though his prime years 26-30 at a reduced cost.

    My thoughts on this is the same when it was brought up for Ryan, I wouldn't do it, they already have these guys on the cheap for their prime. Only a few players debut at these ages and end up being one of the highest paid players at their position.

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    I'd do that deal for Miranda. Heck, I'd consider that deal for Edouard Julian or Emmanuel Rodriguez. So I think it's much too light for Lewis.

    But, I'd for sure be interested in talking a long term deal with him.

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    The potential earning power of RL if he becomes a star could be written into the contract so his value is paid out  appropriately.  I like the framework of what you have but lacks the incentive $$ that could pay him what he is worth. For example 500PA add $1M .300BA add $1M….. the list of incentives could be long and lucrative. 

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      On 2/21/2023 at 11:06 PM, Vanimal46 said:

    If Lewis is indeed a star in the making that I’ve been reading on this site for 6 years, this contract proposal is selling himself extremely short of his earning potential. I don’t see why he would entertain this right now. 

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    I think both sides should wait a year.  His numbers would go up in a year However, $80 million for 9 years probably sounds pretty good to a guy who has been out for most of 2 years with injuries! I like the idea - maybe see him play for 2 or 3 months.

     

     

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    Waiting this long into his rehab to make an offer could also make it look like you'd happily gouge him pay he intends to earn with great play. I get the idea, but it would have come off as closer to mutually beneficial at the outset of the injury, rather than now. 

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    I think a fair deal would be the one you suggested, but change the two option years to $30 mil. Royce gets security, The Twins get one extra year of control and it gives the Twins an option to retain him, but at a fair market price if he is a star.  

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