Twins 2022 Position Analysis: Second Base

Projected Starter: Jorge Polanco
Likely Backup: Nick Gordon
Depth: Luis Arraez, Daniel Robertson
Prospects: Austin Martin, José Miranda

THE GOOD

Last year, the Twins decided to pivot in the middle infield by moving longtime shortstop Jorge Polanco – the 2019 All-Star starter at the position – to second base. The club hoped this relocation would help Polanco stay healthier, rediscover his power swing, and contribute more defensively.

It appears they were correct on all counts.

Polanco went from ranking 19th among all MLB shortstops in fWAR during the shortened 2020 season to ranking ninth among second basemen in 2021. His .349 wOBA was sixth-best at the position, trailing only Trea Turner, Marcus Semien, Brandon Lowe, Jonathan India, and Jose Altuve. That's some great company. He was in even better company when it came to the AL's leaders in Win Probability Added:

1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Aaron Judge
3. Jorge Polanco
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
5. Salvador Perez

Polanco was a clutch-hitting beast who delivered five walk-offs over the course of the season. He slashed .269/.323/.503 with 33 homers, 35 doubles, 98 RBIs, 97 runs scored, and 11 steals, filling the stat sheet and easily earning Twins Daily's MVP nod. He saw sizable increases in barrel rate, exit velocity, and launch angle thanks to a sturdy base. Following two surgeries and a maddening impact on his game over parts of three seasons, he finally seemed to put the ankle issues behind him.

Defensively, Polanco looked much more comfortable and natural in his new position. Although fielding metrics were mixed, he clearly improved as the year progressed, and there's no doubt that the team's defense benefited massively overall from supplanting him at shortstop with a more viable glove. 

In the event Polanco gets hurt, or needs to fill in at shortstop for a spell, the Twins are well equipped to backfill in his absence. It's possible that second base is the best defensive position for all these players: Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon, José Miranda, Austin Martin, Royce Lewis. The latter two haven't really played there, but as fringy defensive shortstops they automatically qualify.

One could argue this saturation of similar defensive skill sets is less than ideal in the big picture, but in terms of the outlook at second base – which is our specific focus here – it's wonderful.

THE BAD

It's pretty difficult to envision a scenario where second base becomes a problem this year. If Polanco is unavailable, they have so many options to step in. Even if you don't have faith in Gordon, and even if Miranda and Arraez are spending most their time at third base ... you can still fall back on one of the top two prospects in the organization. 

More than depth and contingencies, the question here is really one of true upside. Second base is a strength for the Twins, but how strong can it be?

The answer might come down to Polanco's defensive progression. I mentioned that he looked better at second last year, but metrics don't necessarily match the eye test. FanGraphs had him at negative-1 Defensive Runs Saved, with a -10.5 UZR/150 that basically matches his career mark as a shortstop (-11.0). According to Statcast he was in the 13th percentile for Outs Above Average, ranking 30th out of 37 qualified players.

If Polanco keeps raking, the lack of defensive impact will be tolerable, especially with the Twins being otherwise incredibly strong up the middle. But improving his range and execution – perfectly reasonable with one year of regular experience under his belt – would make him a more balanced player, offsetting any regression at the plate. 

THE BOTTOM LINE

From top to bottom, second base is probably the strongest position in the Twins system. Polanco is controllable at reasonable rates for three more seasons after 2022, through age 31, so he figures to maintain a foothold on the position so long as his feet (and ankles) hold up. 

From there, it's really just a matter of sorting out the youthful depth behind him, which shouldn't be terrible difficult since so many of those players are defensively versatile and capable of ending up elsewhere. 

Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base

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