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Following a big answer from second baseman Jorge Polanco in the bottom of the 5th inning, Minnesota was trailing by just a single run. After Juan Minaya and Yennier Cano bridged the game to that point, Tyler Duffey was tasked with facing Jose Trevino, Joey Gallo, and D.J. LeMahieu in the 7th inning. To set the stage, all of Minnesota’s best relievers including Jhoan Duran, Joe Smith, and Emilio Pagan were available and rested. Tyler Duffey has arguably been the worst of the group in the bullpen this season, and issued a single and a walk before Anthony Rizzo stepped in.
Despite having two outs in the inning, Duffey appeared shaky. He nibbled around Gallo, and put LeMahieu on second with a wild pitch. Then he intentionally walked Judge after getting to a three-ball count. If there was a point to second guess the move to give him the inning, this was it, but it also goes against everything Minnesota has practiced in recent seasons.
Asked following the game by MLB.com’s Do-Young Park, Rocco Baldelli explained that trailing in the middle innings just simply isn’t a leverage situation by Minnesota’s standards. He said, “We play a lot of close ballgames. It feels like we’re in close ballgames most games in those spots. If we treat games where we’re down as if we’re up, then when we are up we’re not going to have the pitchers that we really want setup to throw in those games. It doesn’t always feel satisfying at times and that’s fine. But we have guys like Duran and Pagan who've thrown late in a lot of games and Joe Smith, those guys have pitched mainly in games where we’re winning and we want them to be available and ready to finish ballgames when the time comes.”
Deep breath, exhale, Duffey serves up a three-run shot to Anthony Rizzo effectively ending any chance for Minnesota to mount a comeback. The opportunity to win never presented itself as the opportunity not to lose wasn’t capitalized on.
There’s room for debate as to what should have happened, but the question becomes, what should the process be going forward? Minnesota plays a lot of consistently evident situations analytically. In regards to the bullpen, as Baldelli stated, their horses don’t pitch without a lead to protect. On the infield dirt, it’s routine to see the fielders play in, even early in a game, to cut down a run at the plate. Platoon advantages throughout the lineup are present often. It’s not to say this organization and team is run by a computer, but rather that data drives many decisions with the understanding that numbers normalize over time.
Unfortunately for Baldelli, and we’ve seen this in previous years as well, sometimes the decision comes down to a 50/50 coin flip on which he is consistently seeing the wrong side of.
With regards to this specific situation, the bullpen, there’s two competing thought processes at play for Minnesota. The Twins have next to no reliable middle relief help right now. Minaya was DFA’d following the Yankees loss, and Cano has been erratic at best. Duffey isn’t close to what he was a couple of years ago, and Caleb Thielbar hasn’t seen the results that his advanced metrics are there. Whether leading or not, Minnesota has nearly no one to turn to when looking for a bridge to the back of the pen.
On the flip side, while playing close games with a lineup capable of damage, it’s worth wondering how often a hypothetical opportunity never presents itself because the gap is widened. Had one of the horses entered in the 7th inning down by a run and slammed the door, what kind of momentum is generated to recoup the single run and take a lead. Without that process ever being explored, it’s hard to suggest a definitive answer.
Ultimately the Twins are strapped in relief. On a nightly basis they don’t have a bullpen that can make up for starters going just five innings or less. Winning or losing, Duran, Smith, and Pagan can’t be expected to lock down three innings something like five times per week. There has to be help brought in, both for the rotation and bullpen, but it may also be time Baldelli and Wes Johnson consider protecting the opportunity in front of them rather than just the potential one they may never see.
Share your thoughts below. How would you handle pitching from behind in a close game?
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