Twins Offseason Status Update: Things Are Happening

It has been a tough market to read.  I think the per year price of free agents has been like a normal year.  The contracts do not seem to be as long though. Less than half the teams are spending so will they be full at some point and the remaining players become cheaper? Ideally I think the Twins still need 6 players. Starting pitcher, two relievers, shortstop, utility and DH. Seems like it is hard to sign Cruz and have enough for the other needs unless they address some through a trade. I am glad they are out on Bauer as he would use up too much of the remaining money.

I would agree against buying high on Bauer. Based on some of previous comments and some video others have posted it is pretty clear he was using some additional substance to help with his grip during 2020 after complaining about other pitchers using it and getting away with it. If the league cracks down on it and he reverts back to a good not great pitcher the team that signs him is going to be PISSED at overpaying for a 60 game sample. 

Count me out.

Get Simmons!

Thanks for another great article, Nick.

 

I have a feeling that the lineup you posted above is close to what it will be on opening day. I suspect they will continue to try to get Cruz, maybe more money but a one year deal. They may also improve their infield by doing something on a utility player to replace Blankenhorn. But I think that's going to be it.

 

Like you, I can't see them going into the season without one more experienced starting pitcher. Whether that's a free agent or trade, don't have a clue. My personal choice would be the same as three months ago...Odorizzi. Also believe they need at least one more experienced reliever and wouldn't be adverse to bringing back Clippard.

You sucked me in with the headline .. Things are Happening .. LOL

 

Then I find out you mean things are happening for everyone but the Twins

 

Bummer ..

Nice summary, Nick, but can't agree with your elevating Simmons to #1 priority.  Polanco might only be an average defender, but to push him into a utility role seems a much lower priority than 1.) adding a top reliever, like Rosenthal; and 2.) strengthening the rotation with a starter who provides staff with insurance against an injury or falloff in performance from any of their current top three.  Now this opinion would change if Polanco was a key trade figure.

 

Part of problem this offseason is that the Twins seem to be waiting on Cruz instead of being more proactive in aggressively seeking players who can actually help us end our playoff woes.  Of course, no one knows what budget constraints FO operating under.  My take:  Falvine are imposing their own restraints rather than JP imposing a limit.  Boldness is just not in their DNA, except when talent "falls" to them at end of the offseason.  I'm afraid this is their MO again this offseason and as a result, we are not likely to acquire any significant difference makers.  If so, then our advancement in the playoffs becomes very dependent on a return to 2019 levels by Garver/Kepler and relatively healthy seasons by Donaldson and Buxton.  Is that asking too much?

Good article, Nick. The problem with trying to figure out roster construction this year is that we have little idea which prospects made improvements and how much they improved. While not tested in normal games, I could see pitching prospects making big strides. What if they have a couple pitching prospects that made big strides and want to start rotating them in for a look relatively early in the season? It might not be the obvious (Duran / Balazovic). There has been some rumbling that Canterino has improved.

 

Having our AAA team in St. Paul also adds a twist. For example, they could promote Celestino to AAA and have him available anytime Buxton is out for more than a game or two. They can also have Kirilloff / Larnach and Gordon on standby.

 

So what if the FO is thinking they have prospects that will be ready to go in the first couple months? It stands to reason that the supply of good SS will create a buying opportunity. Semien and Gregorius are not much of an improvement defensively but they would provide depth at SS. I don't think we get hurt adding one of the three. 

 

They have Taylor Rogers / Tyler Duffey / Jorge Alcala / Cody Stashak / Dakota Chalmers / Caleb Thielbar and Hansel Robles. Not sure what they expect from Colina. I am thinking at least one more RP unless they had some break throughs last year that change the landscape.

 

Semien and Gregorius are not much of an improvement defensively but they would provide depth at SS. 

If you take a few minutes to dig into Semien's Statcast defensive stats*, you will see that the only weakness he has is going "to his right". He is solidly above average in every other direction. His "to his right" is not only bad, it stands out with many outs worse than the 2nd worst. 

 

Now, flip over to the 3B leaderboard and notice the #2 defender there. It would make sense that a lot of the outs that Semien is not converting "to his right" are because Chapman is cutting those balls off before Semien has a chance to make the play.

I am not sure if that is how Statcast is allocating OOA (maybe someone can tweet Mike Petriello?), but if you look at Trevor Story's numbers, you see a similar pattern as Semien. 

If that is the case, then Semien would be a solid average to above-average defensive SS, which is far better than the two worst fielding starting SS in MLB, which are Polanco and Gregorius. 

 

*https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&year=all&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=6&roles=&viz=show

Another Pirate Pitcher bites the dust and moves from lowly Pirates to the Yankees.  Good for Taillon for getting traded.  Bad for Pirate fans as the dumpster fire continues. In looking at the review of what Yankees gave up in their top 25 list of prospects, seems a bit much but its the Yankees.  

My heart wants Simmons because he is the most fun player in MLB to watch in the field. He is not as flashy as Baez, but he seems to be a quantum speed thinker who is always aware of the game situation, the spin of a struck ball, etc. His snap decision making is just ridiculous to watch.

 

That said, my brain says Semien, because while is not nearly as good or as fun to watch on defense, he is still a solid average to above-average defender, with a hit tool that could play in the middle of the Twins lineup.

 

Which do you prefer?

(And don't say Gregorius, because that would be a downgrade from Polanco on defense)

While it is frustrating to not know for sure what the FO is planning or waiting on (I'm right there with everyone else), I at least have a great diversion to the MLB waiting game...

 

The season has officially started for Georgia HS Baseball as of last week and the #1 team in the state last season (6A) is resuming their quest for a state title.

 

Not that anyone cares, but we're pretty excited .

Of course, we are dealing with human beings, so perhaps this wasn't done with LOGIC as a foundation, but with other intentions. Bauer is pretty opinionated and brash. Perhaps he really doesn't like the Twins and wanted to make it clear they weren't an option for him, leverage be damned? Or perhaps Derek Falvey really didn't like Bauer from their time together in Cleveland and had no intention of helping him gain more leverage?

 

 

I have nothing against Bauer, I think he's a good pitcher.  My son loves him and watches his Podcasts and follows a number of things he does as a pitcher...

but I can't help but think this thought fits the best with the whole Bauer/Twins dynamic.

 

I think he would pitch well in a Twins Uni, but the key would be does he want to and I've never seen him as interested (and no I don't think it's because FAs hate the Twins).

I will continue shouting into the wind - Kiriloff, Rooker, Larnach - not Cruz, not another DH.  Duran, Balazovic, Dobnak unless we trade for a really quality starter and not Odo - that is staying in the same place and we need to improve.  NOOOOOOOOOOOOO to Gonzalez - another step backwards.  Simmons is the only SS I would look at other than Polanco and it is time for Gordon and Blankenhorn to shine at utililty or get moved on.  But the BP is a big need and now that Hand has moved on the options are Rosenthal or ?????????  

I am fully OK with an upgrade at SS and some sort of transference of Polanco or Arraez to a utility role. Any way you can upgrade your team, it's a good thing.

 

But I have to say I think upgrading the bench in GENERAL is what's important, and that's not necessary adding that SS. I mean, does that SS mean you are done and can't bring in another bat? No more SP or RP options? Only one of the above options?

 

Now it still comes down to final payroll. But right now, someone like La Stella to play 3 spots and provide a nice bat and an Adrianza replacement for SS and the 11th man role makes a lot of sense to me. That's half of the $ to bring in a SS and gives you more money for the other spots to be added to the roster yet.

 

So how much positive value does a new SS add to the team as a whole vs adding a couple nice 10th and 11th man options and still have some $ to add another 2 or 3 players?

 

I agree that the roster posted is pretty close to final. I disagree that they will pursue another starting pitcher, I think they got the Odorizzi replacement they wanted to get.

 

Pencil in Marwin as the utility guy and add a couple of relievers and I think they are done.

 

I think the only question is whether Cruz comes back. The fewer moves the Twins make in the meantime, the less likely he will.

 

The bottom $ looks like ~$96M. I suspect this is already much higher than the Twins want to be paying this year by roughly one Josh Donaldson.

Count me among those who do not want to see Marwin returning. When they do something in the infield, it has to be someone who is at least average defensively at shortstop. That means either an Adrianza type of utility guy or a starting shortstop with Polanco moved to super utility. 

 

As for final payroll, I see them getting over $100M, but like you expect it to be much lower than many were projecting much of the winter.

 

I would agree against buying high on Bauer. Based on some of previous comments and some video others have posted it is pretty clear he was using some additional substance to help with his grip during 2020 after complaining about other pitchers using it and getting away with it. If the league cracks down on it and he reverts back to a good not great pitcher the team that signs him is going to be PISSED at overpaying for a 60 game sample. 

Count me out.

His 2018 season was dominant and he had good stats in 2019 for Indians so most of his great pitching, if not all, is his most recent body of work. I would sign him in a heartbeat. I believe you win with pitching, going all the way back to the 72-74 Oakland A’s, the greatest team in my lifetime.

 

I am fully OK with an upgrade at SS and some sort of transference of Polanco or Arraez to a utility role. Any way you can upgrade your team, it's a good thing.

 

But I have to say I think upgrading the bench in GENERAL is what's important, and that's not necessary adding that SS. I mean, does that SS mean you are done and can't bring in another bat? No more SP or RP options? Only one of the above options?

 

Now it still comes down to final payroll. But right now, someone like La Stella to play 3 spots and provide a nice bat and an Adrianza replacement for SS and the 11th man role makes a lot of sense to me. That's half of the $ to bring in a SS and gives you more money for the other spots to be added to the roster yet.

 

So how much positive value does a new SS add to the team as a whole vs adding a couple nice 10th and 11th man options and still have some $ to add another 2 or 3 players?

 

I have been asking myself the same questions. I thought they would resign Adrianza as the 11th man and that would leave lots of options for the 10th man. Seems to me the key is coming up with a back-up SS. Maybe they are thinking that is Gordon. Perhaps thy are thinking Gordon / Blankenhorn and resigning Cruz and a BP arm.

Now that I've been home for a few hours, shoveled TWICE and completed various household chores, I'm ready to add a few comments to an interesting OP that may die tomorrow, lol. But here goes:

 

PAYROLL: The FO,and ownership, have pushed payroll each year since this group has been running things as value presents itself. They have basically stated they know they are not done, acknowledge there is value out there, and have repeated their own past mantra that they are willing to buy late rather than shoo early and go home.

 

Watching what is happening across baseball right now, teams that appear to be contenders are making moves and seem to be keeping payroll at 2020 levels, or higher while teams that don't appear to be contenders are sitting out FA, making cuts, or small moves. IMO, I believe the "target" payroll for the Twins is around $130M with leeway because they recognize there are going to be some late options to be had.

 

NEEDS:

 

1A] A BAT: Ozuna is nice, but with a group of very promising bats ready and nearly ready, they don't need to tie up 4yrs on Ozuna. Cruz absolutely makes the most sense. 1yr is a done deal. A 2nd yr can work with discount/performance numbers or a fair buyout. Perhaps a combination of all. It makes the most sense for both sides.

 

1B] INFIELDER: This could be any of the top 3 FA SS or someone like La Stella as a valuable 3 position 10th man. Signing a SS is a greater $ cost, but might add more total value and hedges against some of the ankle and knee concerns with Polanco and Adrianza. Both are young and talented and whichever one slides in to the 10th man role they STILL play almost daily. Where there is smoke there is often fire. I think the FO is looking HARD at one of the FA SS. (Note: If they keep Polanco at SS, then in addition to a valued 10th man, they need a legitimate Adrianza type to cover SS as the 11th man.)

 

Cruz and a SS signing means the payroll sits around $128-130M, or the "target" area. But again, it's only a target and not necessarily the final destination.

 

There is a difference between LIKING your roster/depth/flexibility and LOVING your roster/depth/flexibility.

 

It doesn't take a savant to look at the total number of FA available to realize there are going to be solid guys looking for jobs and be available on value deals.

 

3] 11th MAN INFIELDER: With enough concern about Donaldson, Polanco and Adrianza health wise...even with hope/expectation they will all 3 be ready to go...why wouldn't you add inexpensive insurance? IF they stick with Polanco at SS, and sign a quality 10th man he probably doesn't play SS. Instead he plays 1B/2B/3B like La Stella, for example. So you need that Adrianza AS replacement. IF they sign a SS, Polanco can cover SS whether he is the 10th man or the starting 2B. Why not deepen your roster with another quality infielder on the cheap? An example I've brought up before, but how about Cabrera as a veteran bat for something like $3M? And there are others that could be valuable.

 

4] 5th SP: What about a $2-4M option...maybe with some incentives...or an invite with incentives to compete with Dobnak for the 5th spot? There is enough depth on the FA list that there could be a late rotation flier that costs very little.

 

5] BULLPEN: There won't be a major $ signing. But how about Colome or Soria for $3-5M? And maybe Clippard for $2-3M in addition?

 

Not including a couple $M in incentives for a SP option, you could POTENTIALLY add an 11th man, 5th SP, and 1 or 2 BP arms come February for a total of around $10-12M. That pushes the payroll to the $140M-ish range. Which is keeping payroll in line with 2020 and in line with the payroll of contending teams at this point.

 

AGAIN, there is a difference between LIKING your team and LOVING your team.

please, everyone knows this offseason is bull crap... A lot of obvious things have not happened and its too late. Unless i see Trevor Bauer and Cruz, then the fo blew it badly.

 

Now that I've been home for a few hours, shoveled TWICE and completed various household chores, I'm ready to add a few comments to an interesting OP that may die tomorrow, lol. But here goes:

PAYROLL: The FO,and ownership, have pushed payroll each year since this group has been running things as value presents itself. They have basically stated they know they are not done, acknowledge there is value out there, and have repeated their own past mantra that they are willing to buy late rather than shoo early and go home.

Watching what is happening across baseball right now, teams that appear to be contenders are making moves and seem to be keeping payroll at 2020 levels, or higher while teams that don't appear to be contenders are sitting out FA, making cuts, or small moves. IMO, I believe the "target" payroll for the Twins is around $130M with leeway because they recognize there are going to be some late options to be had.

NEEDS:

1A] A BAT: Ozuna is nice, but with a group of very promising bats ready and nearly ready, they don't need to tie up 4yrs on Ozuna. Cruz absolutely makes the most sense. 1yr is a done deal. A 2nd yr can work with discount/performance numbers or a fair buyout. Perhaps a combination of all. It makes the most sense for both sides.

1B] INFIELDER: This could be any of the top 3 FA SS or someone like La Stella as a valuable 3 position 10th man. Signing a SS is a greater $ cost, but might add more total value and hedges against some of the ankle and knee concerns with Polanco and Adrianza. Both are young and talented and whichever one slides in to the 10th man role they STILL play almost daily. Where there is smoke there is often fire. I think the FO is looking HARD at one of the FA SS. (Note: If they keep Polanco at SS, then in addition to a valued 10th man, they need a legitimate Adrianza type to cover SS as the 11th man.)

Cruz and a SS signing means the payroll sits around $128-130M, or the "target" area. But again, it's only a target and not necessarily the final destination.

There is a difference between LIKING your roster/depth/flexibility and LOVING your roster/depth/flexibility.

It doesn't take a savant to look at the total number of FA available to realize there are going to be solid guys looking for jobs and be available on value deals.

3] 11th MAN INFIELDER: With enough concern about Donaldson, Polanco and Adrianza health wise...even with hope/expectation they will all 3 be ready to go...why wouldn't you add inexpensive insurance? IF they stick with Polanco at SS, and sign a quality 10th man he probably doesn't play SS. Instead he plays 1B/2B/3B like La Stella, for example. So you need that Adrianza AS replacement. IF they sign a SS, Polanco can cover SS whether he is the 10th man or the starting 2B. Why not deepen your roster with another quality infielder on the cheap? An example I've brought up before, but how about Cabrera as a veteran bat for something like $3M? And there are others that could be valuable.

4] 5th SP: What about a $2-4M option...maybe with some incentives...or an invite with incentives to compete with Dobnak for the 5th spot? There is enough depth on the FA list that there could be a late rotation flier that costs very little.

5] BULLPEN: There won't be a major $ signing. But how about Colome or Soria for $3-5M? And maybe Clippard for $2-3M in addition?

Not including a couple $M in incentives for a SP option, you could POTENTIALLY add an 11th man, 5th SP, and 1 or 2 BP arms come February for a total of around $10-12M. That pushes the payroll to the $140M-ish range. Which is keeping payroll in line with 2020 and in line with the payroll of contending teams at this point.

AGAIN, there is a difference between LIKING your team and LOVING your team.

I assume you were referring to Arraez when mentioning Adrianza several times. How much shoveling did you have? Saw that Omaha got hit hard last night/today.

I assume you were referring to Arraez when mentioning Adrianza several times. How much shoveling did you have? Saw that Omaha got hit hard last night/today.

Combination of bad auto-correct and being very tired, but you are correct.

 

We got just short of 12". Seventh highest on record. Fun, fun, fun!

 

please, everyone knows this offseason is bull crap... A lot of obvious things have not happened and its too late. Unless i see Trevor Bauer and Cruz, then the fo blew it badly.

If getting Bauer was a prerequisite for having a successful offseason, well, I think you got your hopes too high with this front office. He's landing with a big market team. I would like to see the Twins get Cruz back, but so far my main complaint has been a lack of trades (see Iglesias, Tallion, etc.).

If getting Bauer was a prerequisite for having a successful offseason, well, I think you got your hopes too high with this front office. He's landing with a big market team. I would like to see the Twins get Cruz back, but so far my main complaint has been a lack of trades (see Iglesias, Tallion, etc.).

JA Happ is no Odorizzi, and Robles is no Clippard, Romo, nor May. if you think Simmons solves any problems then you dont see what i see. So Arraez replaces Gonzalez? Not likely at least not as an outfielder. We are expecting too many young unproven players to step up all at once. If Sano plays dh who plays first? Who is the starting left fielder? The smart guys prolly know something none of us do but at this point i dont see what it is.

 

JA Happ is no Odorizzi, and Robles is no Clippard, Romo, nor May. if you think Simmons solves any problems then you dont see what i see. So Arraez replaces Gonzalez? Not likely at least not as an outfielder. We are expecting too many young unproven players to step up all at once. If Sano plays dh who plays first? Who is the starting left fielder? The smart guys prolly know something none of us do but at this point i dont see what it is.

Simmons upgrades the Twins from one of the worst defensive SSs in baseball to one of the best, that absolutely solves a problem. Penciling a top prospect in Kiriloff into LF with another legit prospect right behind him in Larnach is 100% fine for me.

 

But I'm not happy if Happ is the only starter added. I already said I want Cruz back, as I don't want to see Rooker as the full-time DH. And the bullpen definitely needs a couple more arms, I don't think it's looking very good at the moment.